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  • AnnualTrends

    and OutlookReport

    2016

    A THRIVING AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Meeting Malabo Declaration Goals through Climate-Smart Agriculture

    Edited by

    Alessandro De Pinto

    John M. Ulimwengu

  • About ReSAKSS | www.resakss.orgEstablished in 2006 under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) supports efforts to promote evidence- and outcome-based policy planning and implementation. In particular, ReSAKSS provides data and related analytical and knowledge products to facilitate CAADP benchmarking, review, and mutual learning processes. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) facilitates the overall work of ReSAKSS in partnership with the African Union Commission, the NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency (NPCA), leading regional economic communities (RECs), and Africa-based CGIAR centers. The Africa-based CGIAR centers and the RECs include: the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for ReSAKSSWA; the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) for ReSAKSSECA; and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) for ReSAKSSSA.

    ReSAKSS is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Netherlands (MFAN). Earlier, ReSAKSS also received funding from the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida).

    EditorsAlessandro De Pinto and John M. Ulimwengu

    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/9780896292949

    ISBN: 978-0-89629-294-9

    Recommended CitationDe Pinto, A., and J. M. Ulimwengu (Eds). 2017. A Thriving Agricultural Sector in a Changing Climate: Meeting Malabo Declaration Goals through Climate-Smart Agriculture. ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2016. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

    CopyrightExcept where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (CC-BY-NC-ND), available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

    Contributors Carlo Azzarri, Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) | Patrick Bell, Adjunct Professor, Ohio State University | Samuel Benin, Deputy Division Director, West and Central Africa Office, IFPRI | Elizabeth Bryan, Senior Research Analyst, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Francisco Ceballos, Senior Research Analyst, Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division, IFPRI | Nicola Cenacchi, Senior Research Analyst, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Jowel Choufani, Senior Research Assistant, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Alessandro De Pinto, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Shahnila Dunston, Senior Research Analyst, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Wiebke Frch, Programme Advisor, SADC Adaptation to Climate Change in Rural Areas in Southern Africa Programme, Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH | Beliyou Haile, Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Benjamin Henderson, Economist, Trade and Agriculture Directorate, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | Mario Herrero, Chief Research Scientist, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization | Aziza Kibonge, Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Ohio University | Jawoo Koo, Senior Research Fellow, Spatial Data and Analytics Team Leader, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Christine Lamanna, Climate Change Decision Scientist, Climate Change Unit, World Agroforestry Centre | Tsitsi Makombe, Senior Program Manager, West and Central Africa Office, IFPRI | Greenwell Matchaya, ReSAKSS Coordinator, International Water Management Institute | Daniel Mason-DCroz, Scientist, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Robert Mgendi, Adaptation Policy Expert, United Nations Environment Programme | Richard Munang, Africa Climate Change and Development Policy Expert, United Nations Environment Programme | Ephraim Nkonya, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Claudia Ringler, Deputy Division Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Miguel Robles, Advisor to Executive Director, World Bank | Mark W. Rosegrant, Division Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Todd Rosenstock, Climate Change and Environmental Scientist, World Agroforestry Centre | Timothy B. Sulser, Scientist, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Wondwosen Tefera, Research Officer, Eastern and Southern Africa Office, IFPRI | Sophie Theis, Research Analyst, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Philip K. Thornton, Flagship Leader and Principal Scientist, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Livestock Research Institute | John M. Ulimwengu, Senior Research Fellow, West and Central Africa Office, IFPRI | Keith Wiebe, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI | Ho Young Kwon, Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI |

    Cover design: Joan Stephens/JKS Design and Shirong Gao/IFPRI

  • A THRIVING AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

    Meeting Malabo Declaration Goals through Climate-Smart Agriculture

    AnnualTrends

    and OutlookReport

    2016

  • 2016 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report iii

    Contents

    LIST OF TABLES vii

    LIST OF FIGURES viii

    LIST OF BOXES x

    ABBREVIATIONS xi

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xiii

    FOREWORD xiv

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvii

    1| INTRODUCTION 1

    2| THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN AFRICA 5

    Keith Wiebe, Timothy B. Sulser, Daniel Mason-DCroz, and Mark W. Rosegrant

    3| THE EFFECTS OF WIDESPREAD ADOPTION OF CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE IN AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE REGIMES 22

    Alessandro De Pinto, Ho Young Kwon, Nicola Cenacchi, and Shahnila Dunston

    4| CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE OPTIONS IN MIXED CROP-LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS IN AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA 40

    Philip K. Thornton, Todd Rosenstock, Christine Lamanna, Patrick Bell, Wiebke Frch, Benjamin Henderson, and Mario Herrero

  • iv resakss.org

    5| TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE 54

    Beliyou Haile, Carlo Azzarri, Jawoo Koo, and Alessandro De Pinto

    6| INSURANCE OPPORTUNITIES AGAINST WEATHER RISKS FOR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN AFRICA 69

    Francisco Ceballos, John M. Ulimwengu, Tsitsi Makombe, and Miguel Robles

    7| CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE PRACTICES BASED ON PRECISION AGRICULTURE: THE CASE OF MAIZE IN WESTERN CONGO 86

    John M. Ulimwengu and Aziza Kibonge

    8| THE UNHOLY CROSS: PROFITABILITY AND ADOPTION OF CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE PRACTICES IN AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA 103

    Ephraim Nkonya and Jawoo Koo

    9| GENDER-SENSITIVE, CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE FOR IMPROVED NUTRITION IN AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA 114

    Elizabeth Bryan, Sophie Theis, Jowel Choufani, Alessandro De Pinto, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, and Claudia Ringler

    10| A STRATEGIC APPROACH AND BUSINESS MODEL FOR SCALING UP ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA 136

    Richard Munang and Robert Mgendi

    11| TRACKING CAADP INDICATORS AND PROCESSES 146

    Tsitsi Makombe, Wondwosen Tefera, Greenwell Matchaya, and Samuel Benin

    12| CONCLUDING REMARKS 158

    Contents Continued

  • 2016 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report v

    Contents Continued

    CHAPTER APPENDICES

    CHAPTER 3 38

    CHAPTER 9 132

    ANNEXES| CORE CAADP M&E AND SUPPLEMENTARY INDICATORS 162

    ANNEX 1a: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.1.1 165 ANNEX 1b: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.1.2 166 ANNEX 1c: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.1 167 ANNEX 1d: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.2A 168 ANNEX 1e: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.2B 169 ANNEX 1f: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.2C 170 ANNEX 1g: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.3 171 ANNEX 1h: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.1A 172 ANNEX 1i: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.1B 173 ANNEX 1j: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.3 174 ANNEX 1k: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.4 175 ANNEX 1l: Level 1Agricultures Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.5 176 ANNEX 2a: Level 2Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.1 177 ANNEX 2b: Level 2Agricultural Trans

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