188

A RESEARCH BASIS FOR OPTIMIZING WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN RELATION TO

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.

By GEOFFREY SHEPHERD Iowa S U University, AM, Iowa

The title of my talk sounds as if it might have come from the brain of some visionary, impractical idealist, secluded in his ivory tower, and completely out of touch with the realities of economic and political life. Actually, the reverse is true. It came originally from a hard-headed president of a business corporation in the United States, who was well acquainted by first hand experience with international business problems. He was impressed with the enormous irn- portance of the subject-"more important than atomic energy"; he was ready to put a considerable amount of money right on the line to finance research on the subject, and confident that he could get additional funds from other hard- headed business men if they would be needed to carry the project through. He asked us at the Centre for Agricultural and Economic Adjustment at Iowa State University at Ames whether we would be interested in setting up and conducting a research project of this nature, and we said we would.

Before we accepted, we suggested that two other agencies were already set up on a world basis and might be able to handle the project better than we could. These two agencies were the Foreign Agricultural Service in Washington and the Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. But as we discussed the matter, it became clear that these agencies believed that we were better set up to do the job than they were. F.A.S. is an agency of the United States Government, and its activities have to be circumscribed by US. national and international policies. And F.A.O. has to be circumscribed by the policies of all its member nations; F.A.O. projects and publications must be approved by unanimous vote of all U.N. member countries. What was needed was an independent research agency, well versed in the field, able to work with F.A.S., F.A.O. and other agencies, but with complete freedom to investigate and publish the results of its work whatever they might be. Dr. Earl Heady, Director of the Centre for Agricultural and Economic Adjustment, accepted the job on that basis.

Economists frequently feel discouraged when they work with international economic problems; so many non-economic barriers impede the working out of economic forces that economists may be excused for feeling sometimes that the services of professional non-economists are required. There is some chance, however, that the activities of G.A.T.T. and other agencies will continue to result in reductions in these barriers. The international discussions of the effects of agricultural protection upon international trade in agricultural products-past, present, and future-that are proposed for the near future may open up new avenues for negotiation. In any case, there is much need for more basic research in the economics of food production and consumption over the

Baris for Optimizing Wwld Food Production 1 89

world. The more clearly the economics of the situation are outlined, the more clearly will the effects of noneconomic factors be revealed for intelligent appraisal.

I want to tell you a little about this proposal, not merely as a matter of information, but in order to get the benefit of your advice and counsel. You in the United Kingdom have had great ex rience in dealing with international

States are still striving to attain. Mr. Weingarten’s paper reflects your inter- national interests. I shall keep my remarks brief, so as to leave the maximum time for seminar-type discussion.

problems, and you have a broad worl r prospective that we in the United

NATURE OF THE JOB There is no need to stress the importance of the job to this audience. You

are as well aware as we are of the potentially explosive nature of the world food situation. World food production is increasing only a little faster than popula- tion. In some countries, the prospects are that population will soon outrun food production. In India, if food production increases no faster than present rates, “the gap bciween supplies and kzrgct wrU be 26 million ions by 1965-66. This will be about 25 per cent shortfall in terms of need. No conceivable Programme of imports or rationing can meel a crisis of this m u g n i l u d c . ” C Food production and consumption is a matter of primary concern for most of the nations of the world, and most of them have developed national food policies to deal with their food problems. But these food policies are primarily national rather than inter- national in character; they take other nations’ policies into account only incidentally. The various national food policies do not add up to a coherent and well integrated or coordinated world food policy.

I t is becoming evident that the countries of the world fall into two con- trasting groups. In the technically more advanced countries, new technology in food production and marketing is increasing food production more rapidly than population, and surpluses depress farm prices and incomes. The United States is the outstanding illustration of this situation. I understand that the United Kingdom is approaching the same situation for some specific farm products- milk, eggs, and perhaps pork. The “Inner 6 ’ European countries may also be approaching this situation for their agriculture as a whole. But at the other extreme, in the technically underdeveloped countries, agricultural technology starts from a much lower level and is improving much less rapidly-less rapidly in some cases than the growth of population--so that the problem there is the Malthusian problem of under-nourishment.

What is needed is a world food programme, with the twin objectives of optimum food consumption per capita over the world, and optimum food production (in the sense of production at minimum cost of land, labour, and capital) in relation to general economic development. The principle of com- parative advantage applies here, but modified in the directions indicated in Gunnar Myrdal’s “Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions”.

This is the sort of thing that Sir John Boyd-Orr used to talk about, and we all owe him a debt of gratitude for h ~ s pioneering work. But somehow the job has not been done. There is a huge research need still waiting to be filled. This research should precede the development and implementation of programmes.

Specific illustrations will make the nature of the research job clear. Could India for example become the most efficient producer of aII her own food, or would it be more efficient (lower cost) for her to produce 90 per cent of her food

Report on Inddia’s Food Crisis and Skps lo Meel I t . Ford Foundntion, 1959. pp. 3-4.

190 Geoffrey Shepherd and import the rest-and if the latter, of what kinds and quantities, and where from? In either case, how can she increase the efficiency of her food production, consistent with her other needs with respect to economic development?

Would it be more efbcient to ship fertilhr to India than roughly 20 times the weight of the fertilizer in food? If so, which country is the most efhcient source of the fertilita, and how would pa ent be made? Would it be still more

in India, and how would the village farmers pay for the fertilizer, or would the Indian Government distribute it at low prices or free? And is farm management education and know-how needed before the futilizer can be used effectively, and if so, how can this training be provided for Indian fanners? And what would be the effects on village organization and community life?

Among the technically more advanced countries, the problem hinges on comparative advantage and barriers to trade rather than subsistence require- ments. The evidence in some of these cases is confiicting. One welldocumented but unpublished and confidential G.A.T.T. study concludes that agricultural technolo is so far advanced and per unit costs are so low in the United States

and wheat at substantially lower costs than most countries in Europe. But another recent report concludes that agricultural technology may advance so rapidly under recent proposals for the "Inner 6" common-market countries of Europe that the shoe may be on the other foot.+ Which conclusions are correct?

I should be interested to get your views on the prospects in Great Britain and Europe. I believe that technology with respect to fertilizers, chemical weed control, pesticides, etc., is already well advanced. An the economic and legal difficulties that impeded the consolidation of fields (an indispensable first step in some countries before large machinery can be used to reduce costs) giving way rapidly, or slowly? Can they be speeded up? When I was in Germany in 1949, the prospects for consolidation were discouraging. What are they now? How important are the physical problems of topography and location with respect to the use of large scale machinery? These are just a few sample questions to illustrate the kind of research that needs to be expanded and made more public.

The problem at present, then, is not food surpluses, nor food scarcities, alone, but both existing in Merent parts of the world at the same time, and both likely to increase in magnitude in the immediate future.

Beyond this short-run problem in the immediate future lies a long-run problem. The prospects are that world population will increase so rapidly that food scarcity problems will over-shadow and eventually wipe out the present food surplus problem. World requirements for food may exceed the world's basic food roducing resources even when they are used optimally. There may

all accurately how soon this problem may be upon us, let alone how to deal with it when it comes.

0 8 JECTIYES. The overall objective of the project is to set up and conduct research which

wil l help to show how to m a t world requirements as fully and as efficiently as possible.

efficient to make the fertiliter in India? pl f so, where would the plants be located

that the f7 nited States is now and will continue to be able to produce feed grains

not be mu EE time to waste. We do not know enough yet to be able to predict at

"Draft Proposrlr for a Common Agricultural Policy of the European Economic Com- munity". Bul. of the E.E.C., Brus~la, Dec. 1959. There roposds are mmmUiKd and appraised in OIUr Zqlitr. "The Common Market 'Sg' Mover to Unify Agri-

Common Msrket'r Proparsa u m P O W ' , u m e Journal, Fob. I*, pp. wro, 23. cultud Policy". FOVW A T W 8 . XXfV:I, J u ~ . I*, pp. II-XZ, M d "Th

Basis for Optimizing World Food Production 191

Under this objective, food will be considered not merely as such-though it is indispensable in its nutritional capacity-but as0 as an instrument for frllfilling other needs-education, housing, cultural development, industrial progress, etc.

More specific sub-objective will be spelled out as the project develops.

ORGANIZATION. The project will proceed under the general supervision of the C.A.E.A.

committee a t Iowa State University. The project will be conducted by a small working committee consisting of

about three members of the Department of Economics and Sociology and the C.A.E.A. at Iowa State University. This working committee will be small so that it can conduct the research work effectively. It will, however, have the benefit of the advice of a larger and more diverse advisory committee consisting of about a dozen members from different disciplines-economists, sociologists, nutritionists, agronomists, e tc . -a t Iowa State University, reinforced at certain times by special experts from other institutions.

The small working committee will have several assistants, both at Iowa State and elsewhere. It will also occasionally call in consultants who have special knowledge of particular problem, from educational, governmental and private research agencies and business firms. We have in mind for instance such institutions as the Foreign Agricultural Service in Washington, the Food Research Institute in California, the F.A.O. in Rome, several chemical and engineering firms, etc.

WORKING PROCEDURE. 1. One or two of the three project leaders will first of all visit the two chief

sources of already existing information on the present and prospective world food situation-the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Depart- ment of Agriculture in Washington, and the F.A.O. of the United Nations in Rome. These men will explain the objectives and procedures for the project, and make clear the desire on our part to collaborate fully with F.A.S. and F.A.O. in developing and carrying out the project.

During these visits, our men will ask the advice of the F.A.S. and F.A.O. men, including agricultural attach& abroad, concerning specific per- sonnel in the chief countries. Each one of these “country” men will work in his country full time or part time analyzing the need data and training other nationals if necessary in some countries to make additional analyses as the form of the study begins to take shape.

The training of other nationals wi l l take place chiefly in their own countries, but part of the time they will be brought to the United States. They will spend most of their time in the United States at Iowa State University, and part of the time at other universities which can offer some specialized training more closely fitting their specialised needs. Some C.A.E.A. men will spend parts of their time helping other countries train their nationals.

The leadership of the project will remain with the core group of C.A.E.A. a t Iowa State University, but from time to time, consultants with special knowledge and experience of particular parts of the field will be brought to Ames to work with the core group. These consdtants will include men from other countries such as the “country” men, as well as wheat men, rice men, etc., from the United S ta te . And they will indude men from agriculture- related industries as well as professional agricultural economists, sociologists, political scientists, agronomists, nutritionists, etc.

2.

3.

4.

192 Geofiey Shepherd

5. Gradually a body of research knowledge and experience will be built up here in the C.A.E.A. sufficient to provide the basis for tentative outlines of the nature of the adjustments needed to optimize food production and consumption and economic development. These outlines will be discwed in a preliminary way in a series of conferences, first at the C.A.E.A.. then at the F.A.S. in Washington, then at F.A.O. in Rome, and finally at a number of points in other countries. The conclusions resulting from these conferences will be published in reports, which will be given the widest possible distribution.

ANALYTICAL STEPS. 1. To outline clearly the existing world food situation, locating and

measuring the food surplus and deficit areas, and the quantities of food moving from one to the other, and the aids and obstacles to this movement.

2. To forecast the changes that are likely to take place in this picture over the next 5, 10, and 20 years.

3. To compare this picture with a normative picture based on the attain- ment of desirable minimum nutritional standards and optimum allocation of food producing and distributing resources.

4. To workout measures toattain this optimum food production and con- s u m tion. These measures will be based upon the determination of the relative n for training in better farm management practices, for better capital equi ment, for more fertilizer, etc., and alternative methods of financing these n

5. To orient the work done under the four headings above to economic development in the countries concerned. That is, food will be the starting point, but the research wi l l not be confined to food alone.

These steps are outlined in more specific detail in about half a dozen dittoed pages, but I will not burden you or my paper with this detail.

2. ee8

CONCLUSION. The keynote of this research project as we see it is the recognition of the

d amic, changing and developing nature of the world we live in. The overall o&tive is not to show how to preserve or return to the stalus quo ante the technological economic, sociological and political revolution that is sweeping over the world, but how to adjust to it and benefit from it, with benefit to all mankind. The objective is not to do research to show how to return to a previous condition of uilibrium, but how to adjust to a continuously moving and

merely a matter of research on fuldlling food potentialities, but of using the energies released and created by more efficient food production and con- sumption in the whole process of economic and sociological development.

Our first purpose is to provide a research basis for managing the current agricultural revolution so as to get the maximum benefit to mankind with the minimum of disastrous initial effects on farmers. We do not want them to'go through the harrowing experiences that factory workers in Great Britain went through in the early stages of the industrial revolution 200 years ago. Our second purpose is to deal with the long-run problem of world nutrition.

We would like to have your advice and help in developing and conducting this project. We hope that we will have the opportunity to consult with several of you in this country.

changing equili 7 rium and help it to change in desirable directions. And it is not

Discussion on Professor Shepherd’s Paper 193

DISCUSSION ON GEOFFREY SHEPHERD’S PAPER. M i s s .4. Martis:

Mr. President. I would like to thank Professor Shepherd most warmly for thin paper. I am particularly p l d about the broad framework in which this is being planned. The paper says that one of the analytical s t e p is to orient the agricultural problems towards the general development of the countries concerned. “That is. food wdl be the starting point, but the research will not be confined to food alone.” I think this is a thing that very much needs emphasising, particularly to an audience of agricultural economists. I t is terribly easy for us to think that the most important things we can do to raise agricultural productivity must consist of taking steps within the agricultural sector. whereas in fact it is very often true. and has been shown to be so historically, that the most helpful things one can do to nise agricultural productivity come about through a process of indirrcfim: from investment quite outside the agncultural sector in the general development in the rest of the economy. The extent to which this is true wi l l depend very largely on the man-land ratio, given the quality of the land, of course. in the countries concerned. ”here there is heavy pressure on the land. very often it is much more important that there should be some profitable employment opportunities off the land altogether, development of secondary industries and so on; this may, in fact, do very much more for agricultural productivity by enabling farm sires to rise. farms to be made more compact, and the period of rotational fallow to be lengthened. than any direct attack on agricultural technology. I think I would go further, and say that in many poor countries more than half the problem is to create the conditions in which we can apply the technology we already know, and leu than half the problem is to get further with the technology itself. countries. e.g. Asia and Africa. a very large part of the problem is simply to get farms OK: right sire and the right layout, which means ultimately getting the man-land ratio more favourable so that the existingly known technology can be effectively applied.

Industrial development a h affects agriculture in another way ; that is. by helping to provide incentives for the farmer. I sometimes think that to invest a certain amount of capital in a local brewery might in fact raise the agricultural productivity of the area concerned as much as investing the same amount of capital in a ha-making factory. Farmers like beer. and therefore they will work harder to apply the technology which they know, if there is something available for them to buy.

If it reems that to expand secondary industria, possibly baaed on the processing of agricultural products, is in fact the fastest way to raise income per head of the territory. then you get a verydirect incentive to increase agricultural production simply by the increased effective demand for food that wnll at once occur. But my em h u L here is all based on my initial hypothesis that the peasant farmer left to himxlf J r T n d very quickly to economic incentive, and that the problem is rather more that of providmg him with adequate incentive than actually provid- ing him with more advanced technology. valuable though this may be.

by a rather indirect approach, I hope very much that the Iowa project will not overloo the great importance of investment in communications and transport in rural arm ;u well as more direct forms of investment in fertili&r. etc. Very often the very widening of the market opened to the peasant farmer has the effect of increasing his incentive to produce. as well as of lowering the price of food to the towns le ; it also minimixs the risk of highly 1- hminca or seven food scarcities. E k b l y so much bas been written on this in recent years that it is not n e c a u r y to stress it. but it is only relatively recently that economists as a whole have ban giving this point of communicatiolu and transport the weight which i t deserves. In brief, I would say that there a m probably plenty of - where, given that capital is going to be scarce relative to the needs for it. we may often get further in raising agricultural productivity by investing more capital outside the agricul- tural sector than within it.

I will make four mom scattered points. One problem which seems of obvious importance to this project is the most effective organisation of agricultural extension and advisory work in t h a e territories. remembering the extremely limited supply of man-power to do the job. Of course the type of extension and advisory work which will be a ropriate will depend for a start very much on whether the economy concerned is orientatgtowards peasant farming or to plantations. Where it is peasant-orientated I think that a lot of the extension work at pnsent is ill-advised and wasteful of rcaources. Some of it consists. following Jolly’s work in the West India , in pouring almost unlimited amounts of capital into farms of ap roximately average peasant sire and setting them up as model or ilot farms. I think &s is wasteful, wrong and misleading and that onealternativemethod w&ch is followed. 0.8. in parts of Nigeria is very much more helpful. This consists of taking selected farmers out of their villages for a year or two. p i n g them both the sire of farm and the amount of capital which it is likely they will have to work with on their return to their villages, and getting them to form it under the guidance of agricultural advisory officers

Very often for

The third point is so familiar that I apologise for making it.

2 To illustrate again the value of approaching the problem of low agricultural productivi

194 Disccrrsior, on Professor Shepherds Paper

for a year or two on a commsrctl hrk. earning a livelihood for themrelva and their kmiliar and returning to their villagsr u enlightened apostles. and d o a not produce the sort of fum which is likely to impras a visiting ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . t i n f ~ loob jnst like any other Nigerian bush farm. parhaps a bit tidiar and with m t h ~ h g e r y u ~ . But I think it is a rarlirtie approach and, whether I am right or wrong, thu whole quation of how to UM vary limited ~ U M I in sxtsndon and advisory work is deadly of

The second point is the whole question of land tenure with which I imagine the Iowa project will haw to concern itmlf much. Again, quoting from the paper, "%r fmt purpose IS to provide a maearch bash for the currant agricultural revolutron so u to get the maximum ban& to mankind Z W u m of diustrous initial e5ecta on farman". Thir is splendid, and c h r l y a large of minimidng thae disastrous initial e5ecta will depend on the land tenure system w ch the govwnmenta and advisers concerned decide to encoumgo sad support, whether it U(WI mom or lass social upheaval. Very often in dircrudo~ of land tenure too much consideration is given to purely technical elcien W e consider what rira of farm and what amount of labour on it wi l l be most techaic.a?y efficient in producing the producta conwrned. What is so often overlooked is the quation of incentive. It is probably very oftan the cw that to have farms which M in fact below the optimum size from a technid point of view but which enable one to prrrarve OT to m u g u ~ t e the aysbm of frsshold ,tenure or something liLe it. may in fact pay 05, even though it looks meluent , bemuse it e5ectrvely liberates the incentrva and energia of the farmers concerned. I don't at all know how one trier to balance u thew two thin , but I think it would be a i if wu concentrate too much on technical e8%ciency and insu&ently on the pspogide%ects on the h e r s concerned of the taoura framework within which they m r t intereat ; ahem landowners were sxproprioted. the land at prasnt belong to the z, and the prospective ownen farm it u bnnnb for thirty YM under claw supervision. At the end of this thirty yerrr they dl become treehold oansn. This r p t e m reems to me to combine the a d v ~ t y l e of clam supervision for the insxpsrienced h e r with that of the ulwte incentive which b important to pamanta dl over the world, of being able to feel that the land belongs to him and to his heirs. I do not want to be dogmatic about this ; obviously there are usa, p u l a r l y where the rmn-land mtio is relatively low. where a collective or cooperative orm of fuming dl do the job batter, and there M specirl c u a ruch PI Israel. where although the demographic situation is not cularly favourable to collective farming. the ids0logic.d considerations am. One just rto be empirical about this and see which w o r k

Thirdly, I hope this project. even while it is going along, will have a certain educational

influence of Iowa wiU be in the directton of panuadin d tom and politichs in these poor countries of the importance of the cipler of corn- advantap. - both inter-regionally and internationally. E o n ? know w E e r the adminutraton of the territories of the British Commonwealth are typical, but I s t they probably M. One thing that strikes one very much is their otmession with thz of famine, whether I d or more wide spread ; this has led them time and again since the war to try to rovide disincentiva towards what would reem like extremely profitable cash crop prod)uction. This hr happened. for example, with u)co. in Nigeria in the early days of the blarketing Boards. the argument being that, if d crop production is too profitable. peasants will turn away from producin food and m wiU have famine. The tendency to think in this way was, of course. exac&ted by the wartime situation when them was a genuine nhortage of shipping. Anything one can do to improve communications and transport IOSSOIU this risk M a d t y factor, but if one could just make .dminirtn. ton understand that it redly is quite rapronabls for Mauritiur, for instance. to concentrate on producing sugar and importing nce rather than trying to become self-supporting in cassava. which the population don't much like. t h ~ ~ would be a valuable achievement.

e e important thing follows, I think, from this general attitude of the administrator, which IS that people who have lived for years with the people conwrned are convinced that Africans, for mtance, do react very quickly to economic incentive. I rather agree with this implied hypothesis. I think that, on the whole, the poorer the peasant farmer is, the more responsive he is to economic inwntive- not the leu. as is sometimes said. This is a ho ful sign ~UXUM. if true. it m a k a the task of the adviwr very much h e r . W e have o$got to show these farmers for i n s t ~ c e , that fertiliner pays. possibly by givin a subsidy on fartihaor for a few y~ for them to get the idea very quickly and soon it willfm possible to sell them f u t i l i m at M economic price.

To condude. I am always a little bit worried when I see the word "optimum". This project b called "A Rmsprch Basis for optimizing World Food Production and Consumption m Relation to Economic Dovedo ment I. I have a suspicion here that "optimum" may turn out to mean some nutritioAst.ndtud which hu bean lrrived a t by dentists without

This looks v

the utmort imporfanca.

From this point of via, the land reform in South Italy is of

VdUe ; that the rs#.rchSn m y teocb U W d M lOUTl, .nd 1 hopd W C U h that the

Discussion 01) Prolessor Shepherd’s Pa@ 195

very much relevance to the values of the peoples concerned. Rofsrror J. D. Block did a very valuable job in stressing that there are not j u t two variables in a Malthusian equation. population and food supply ; there ia a third equally important variable. and that is the standard of life that the people want. The economc question of choice always involves thaw three variables. Given certain food and other production possibilities. the choice is be- certain combhatiom of size of population level and of rtandard of life (including rates of mortality a t d O U 8 ages). This is where I think that economists from outside rimply connot make the choice for the people concerned. All we can do ia our traditional economist’s job of trying to praent the choice 01 clearly as we can. What is an optimum balance of production. consumption, development and 10 on can only be answered ultimately in social and political tamr ; that is, we may aay that people have reached an o timum balance, if, given tolmble freedom of &on. they appear to be living fairly L p p i l y both with t h e d v e s and with their ne3bow-a. I don’t want to make tbh sound over- clitical. 01 if we in the richer countries are only oing to be interested in our poorer neigh-

ura when there is the danger of revolution. & a t I wish to do is to divert the emphasis from any absolute material standards dreamed up by either nutritionists or economista, and to ruggust that if a country appears to be living parrceobly with itself and with the rest of the world, even if the upectatron of life of ita population is lower thrn that of the most advanced countries. and even if the nutritional standard is much lower, then it does not neceJllrily present itself as a “problem country” to tbe economist.

ProJessor Shepherd: M i u Martin’s observations are very instructive and I think they require no comment

from me. except that I would like to say that we intend taking other thine than nutrition into account. Questions of taste M very important, and whether a man should spend his money on more nutritious tood or other things must be left to him.

E. S. Ckzyfon: M i u Martin raised the thorny problem of pusant farmers’ supply rrsp0n.w to price

changes and she put forward the possibility of a rapid respow. In practice, from surveya I have carried out in a limited area in East Africa, I have found r a p o w to be just “patchy” -in other words there has been an irregular responw to price changes for particulpr commoditiea.

I regret that Professor Shepherd has not gone into mom detail to 631 in the analytical stepa which he mentions on page 192. He refera in s 3 to the optimum alloution of resources. but it is difficult to know what ruearch a n i q u e he p h to use. Does he mean seeking positions of equi-margi~I returns to input, as between production alternatives. or doer he mean programming optimal solutiona for modal farm situations? Both am research pussibilitiea. but the data required for these techniques can only be available for very few underdeveloped a r u ~ and for obvious reasons these data cannot be collected for

ing data were available. would the rmulb be But. supK e first difficulty ia methodological in using thae

other a m in a short period. acceptable for techni ues ancf%y~%?!&~~ncerns the use of static urumptions of price and

I would like to ask with regard to analytical step 2-which seeh to look forward 5-20 yeara ahead- what crystal ball he will use to give satisfactory answen? To take a point at random, how d m he expect to anticipate the impact of. say, the mechanization of perunt agriculture? From my own studies 1 would say that this may be economic in a b g h value cash cr economy but rarely in other circumstances. certainly as far u East Africa is concern3 There b likely to be no easy solution to questions of forecasting the effects of future techno- logical changes.

Projessor Shepherd: In addition to looking into the best crystal ball on the market a t the time we would see

what we could add ourselves. To be a little more specific, I would mention the various fore- casts that are being made of future production a t Oxford. Edinburgh and in the United States. A recent investigation of United States data for instance shows a strong positive correlation between crop yields per acre and size of farm in terms of income clus. Other studies show that costa per acre in Iowa decrease up to 400 acre family famu. Information of this kind provides some basis for believing that these larger farmer, will be able to outbid smaller farmers for land, and that ps they do 50, yields will incruse. and this will have a tendency to depress prica.

P. M . Reason: The question of rates of population increase is clearly an integral part of Professor

Shepherd’s five analytical steps. I wonder whether he is induding further work on popula- tion increase, or whether he would be accepting work done on thu problem by the United

tabnology . Profeuor Shepherd says that his aim is to give research a dynamic quality.

196 Discnssion on Professor Shepherd's P a w

Nations? We bly still don't know nearly enough about the subject. Five yaur ago the United Gns undertook a demographic survey of the world and forecut population for about forty yearn a h d . They have now made 4 further survey which suggests that all their previous forecasts wura too low. Of p u t i c u k signifiunce in relation to food pro- duction u the int that, although the forecast d ' percsntap ratea of i n m may somewhat EL off over that period. the curve o f z p o p u l a t i o n moves upwarcis on a graph a t an ever-increuing steepness.

Profrssor S h e p k d : In the h t instance we would study population projections made by the b a t authorities

Later 01 we built up staff we would hope to be able to appraine these eatinuta in the world. ourselves.

A . Wiugarh: The underlying idea of thin project is one that should certrinly appeal to farmera'

organisations throughout the world. Two ppfpcC"phs in the dacription of the project might dmort have bean taken out of the report o the International Federation of Agricul- tural Producm of ita recent Conference at New Delhi. One on page 189 refers to the need for a world food programme and the other on age 190 obaerves that the problem is not one either of food surplusem or of food scarcities. %ut of both existing in different pats of the world a t the same time.

A great deal of work has been done by inter-governmental agencia and other bodies in amte parh of this field. Perho the Iowa team will therefore aim a t bringing together w x that has been done by F.A.O.. l!kted Nations bodies and the World Bank.

In my view the real priority a t the moment is not for more work in bodc research but in the political mphere-in persupding the richer governments of the world that it is in their interests to Kt up the right international machinery to achieve a prograame of general economic develo m a t on a co-ordinated barir. Thia leads me to make a specific suggestion to Profeuor gepherd that he should include a study of ways by which the right type of inter-governmental machinery can be eatabliahed to do this job. About 10 yearm ago, farm organisations of the world thought that they could sove the problem of surpluaea by setting up an international bcdy to transfer surpluaa from producing ueu to the poorer anad of the world and dao by means of a series of inter-govemmental commodity agree- ments. Today the emphasis hpr changed and it h now also necessary to consider how food h to be handled am part of a programme of general economic development.

K. E . Hurl: Considering that the esrenw of the origin of thir work waa "adjustment" and that it

h people who have to adjust, I would hope that a good deal more attention wil l be given to a study of the perrod and social aapects of adjustment than is indicated in the paper 01 i t stands. Mima Martin raised the extension and advisory p1pects but there is no reference by Professor Shepherd to the people who will be consulted in this connection-rociologiata extension worken. etc. A study of adminiatration in the broad aenw will nlso be relevant in considering, for example, what puts people in a mood in which they will readily make adjustments.

You cannot forecast accurately what the aituation will be 5 or 10 yean hence. I would like to em the emphasb in studies of this kind shifted from econometric projection towards confrontation axercW. i.e. in getting the expectations of research workers. politiciana. extension people, etc.. together and facing each one with the assumptions of the other. We need a development in handling qualitative materid comparable to recent developments in handling quantitative material. The choice of basic ammum tions on which to make projects may deserve more study than we instinctively give it. be tend to make assump ti0118 in order to make the job manageable, and in doing so we may pore away, or divert attention from many of its significant problem.

ProJessor Shepherd:

I would just make thk point as a comment on the project p1 a whole.

I agree with practically eve g that Mr. Hunt has said. I would like to comment on

to deal with appro riate programmes. I would only say that my exirting feeling is that our research would yead UP to this sort of thin . What we are planning to do is not to eract a programme but to prowde a research basis for other people to devel A final point is that we certainly intend to make full use of studies m%?yFp?E.?? and other bodies.

the suggestion that we should P e d with the indination or diminclination of governments

I