A Presentation of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchProfessor Mike HulmeExecutive Director

Climate change the big questions Understanding dangerous climate change .. . ecology, economics, sustainability, psychology, climate science, ethics .

Pathways to decarbonisation .. .. energy, economics, technology, policy, engineering, spatial planning .

Place-based climate protection strategies .. .. development studies, climate science, land-use economics, ecology, planning and then there is the challenge of integration

A brief history of modelling re. climate change mid-1970s: global climate models disciplinary, institute-based late-1980s: IMAGE 1 inter-disciplinarity early-1990s: ESCAPE trans-nationality mid-1990s: TARGETS holistic thinking late 1990s: IMAGE 2/COOL interactivity late-1990s: participatory integrated assessment a new paradigm early 2000s: eScience massive modularity

conclusion era of virtual institutes deploying the above attributes, solving complex problems through interactive research

The Tyndall Centre key elements of what we doIntegrated, trans-disciplinary, multi-site research on climate change mitigation, on adaptation and on integration

Wide engagement and interactivity with national and international stakeholders; partnership based approach

Outreach, education and opinion-shaping

University of LeedsUniversity of SussexRALCLIMATE SCIENCE

APPLIED ECONOMIC MODELLINGARCHITECTUREENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGYSCENARIOS & POLICYTRANSPORTMODELLINGENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGYSCENARIOS & POLICYENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGYINTEGRATION

IMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSISIMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSISThe Tyndall Centre partnership

Tyndall Centre External Relationships

NGOs & CHARITIES FOE, Green Alliance, National Trust, BTO, RSPB..GOVERNMENT DEFRA DfT DTI FCO DfID DoH ODPM Regional Govt. Devolved Govt. European CommissionOSTRESEARCH COUNCILSNERC, EPSRC, ESRC [MRC?] BUSINESS & INDUSTRYTRADE ASSOCIATIONS etc.RESEARCH COMMUNITYNational & InternationalHADLEY CENTRESome Research fundingSOCIETYEXEC. NDPBsEnglish NatureEnvironment AgencyCountryside AgencyADVISORY NDPBs EXEC. AGENCIESHA, MCAFunding Business Liaison ProgrammeUK CIPMEDIACarbon TrustEnergy Saving Trust

TYNDALL

INTERNATIONAL European Climate Forum IPCC, UNFCCC FP6 - enVISAge

Tyndall Centre - StructureCENTRE MANAGEMENT UEAResearch DirectorExecutive Director

Regional Assistant DirectorsSOUTHAMPTON & UMISTADVISORY BOARD x25Private Sector 10Public Sector 5Academia 8NGO 2Annual Assessment PanelX12 AB MembersReview Panel x7 AB MembersCENTRE STAFF External Communications Business & Government Liaison Activities and Web Co-ordination Scientific Co-ordinator Administrator Secretary

Senior Research Fellows (4)TYNDALL COUNCIL x16Directors, Theme Managers, and Partner Representatives

RESEARCH MANAGEMENT TEAM x10

RESEARCH PROJECT LEADERS x40

RESEARCH STAFF& STUDENTS *

RESEARCH THEME MANAGERS x6

Note: All included in this schematic are referred to as The Tyndall Assembly, together with the founding endorsers of the Centre, the Tyndall 43.12.12.01SUPERVISORY BOARD x5NERC / EPSRC / ESRC*Includes affiliated students and Visiting Fellows

21%6%7%16%33%13%4%

Chart1

20.64

6.38

4.17

13.37

32.67

16.09

6.68

Total budget = 10m

Total for project based research = 55.44%Total for all research = 68.81%Note: the above breakdown may be subject to adjustment

BREAKDOWN OF TYNDALL CENTRE BUDGET, 2000-2005

Sheet1

Core support 20.64%20.64

Training and events 6.38%6.38

Outreach 4.17%4.17

Core research 13.37%13.37

Existing research projects - internal 32.67%32.67

Existing research projects - external 16.09%16.09

Research projects - not yet allocated 6.68%6.68

100

Sheet2

Sheet3

Tyndall Centre additional funders International: EU FP5, Government of Portugal, GEF/UNEP, Earth Negotiation Bulletin UK Government: DEFRA, DTI, DfID, Environment Agency, Sustainable Development Commission, Eastern England Development Agency UK Research Councils: ESRC, NERC, MRC, Joint Infrastructure Fund NGOs: English Nature, Joint Nature Conservation Council, Gulbenkian Foundation Business: Powergen, Shell International, Hoare Lee Engineering, Process Integration Consortium, Renewables Northwest

Organised around four research themes

Decarbonising modern societies a targets approachAdapting to climate change a questions approachSustaining the coastal zone a place-based approachIntegrating frameworks a systems approach

The Tyndall Wheel

Organised around four main tasks

Trans-disciplinary research projects (e.g. mapping pathways towards a 40% UK)

Innovative agenda-setting(e.g. integrating development policy with adaptation)

Strategic assessments (e.g. equity and justice in adaptation policy; COP8)

Advancing the science of integration (e.g. a Community Integrated Assessment Model)

Tyndall integrated assessment objectivesTo design and construct a flexible multi-modular multi-disciplinary community integrated assessment model (CIAM) to address climate policy problems

To set up an interactive integrated assessment process (IIAP) in which we work with stakeholders and decision-makers to guide the design of the CIAM

Netherlands:ICISHealth moduleUK: Tyndall CentreMAGICC-SCENGEN Climate module(Norwich)Germany: Potsdam IA Modules (PIAM)DINAS-coastGlobal Ecosystem ModuleUK: Tyndall EconomicsModule (Cambridge)Emissions of 6 COP gasesFeedbackeffectsEXAMPLE SCHEMATIC OF SIMPLE PROTOTYPE COMMUNITY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL (CIAM)

Tyndall Centreand eScience

enVISAge an EU FP6 Network of Excellence?a Virtual Institute for Sustainability Assessment

Developing a joint knowledge infrastructure for the execution of a truly European program of research Fostering fundamental advances in the emergence of a science of integration and a science of sustainability Ensuring the appropriate application of this research capacity to the production of timely policy-relevant research on important questions concerning the transition to sustainability A partnership between national centres and networks

Methodology

EconomyEnergySocial influencesTechnical progressWorld TransportWorld Agriculture Impact SystemEcosystemsAgricultureHealthHuman systems includingRegionalised sub-modulesClimate System

Emissions of 6 COP GasesSO2, NOx, and PM

Atmospheric concentrations of 6 COP Gases, SO2, NOx, aerosols adaptationmitigationEcosystem feedbacks: albedo from land use/icemelt/forest changeStakeholder influence/social decision making climate feedbacksinteractions Direct effects of land use change on climate

such as policy makers, NGOs, business and governmentsThis is an example flowchart showing the kind of structure the model might take.

Fundamentally three major components.

Energy/economics Climate ImpactsInclude world transport Reduced form model Regional models nested within global

Timscale 100 years but with implications for short term

Initial model will be simple prototype which we will gradually extend.

Model will be multi-modular .And ultimately our aim is that is should be multi-institional.

Facilitate this using Grid and Globus component based technologies and object oriented design.