Raphaël Duboz, Aurélie Binot, Flavie Goutard,Marisa Peyre, François Roger, Christophe Lepage

PENAPH Technical WorkshopChang Mai December, 11 – 13 2012

We all “manipulate” mental representations

In some ways

We are all modelers!

We all perform simulations!

The Artificial Intelligence Point of View

Yes, but...

we are not all mathematicians, statisticians, nor computer scientists...

Nevertheless...

We make decisions by answering questions

who?, what for?, when?, why? How? …

We imagine what will happen if...

We very often make decisions just“thinking about”the situation and

“choosing”a solution over some scenarios...

x

Different mental representations

Different models of reality

Different perceptions

Collective

Knowledge sharing

Conflicts resolution

Decision making

Require

Common or Shared Representation of Reality

A participatory modelling method for co-designing a shared representation of a system

http://cormas.cirad.fr/ComMod/en/

If stakeholders share a common representation it is...

- easier to discuss about a particular problem

- enables and improves dialog between conflicting stakeholders

- easier to co-design solutions, management improvements...

- Increases stakeholders willingness to adopt and evolve solutions

Expected Output

- Explicit

- Illustrative

- Sufficient regarding the issue (parsimony)

As the common representation “belongs to” the stakeholders,for them it is:

- Role playing games, simulation models (Agent Based Models)

- Scenarios generation and co-designed solutions

In addition, the model should be mutable and playable

ComMod has been applied in more than 30 very different casesof natural resources management issues

Realizations

Ex: Lam Dom Yai (Thailand)

Produce knowledge on the manner migrations affect rice cropping practices associated with the risk of very dry season

(Naivinit et al., 2007)

Mediation in conflict resolution regarding resources sharing

Ex : Lingmuteychu (Bhutan)

Solve an long term conflict regarding water sharing for crops between two villages (upstream and downstream)

(Gurung et al. 2006)

To raise awareness of actors aboutRisk of Forest fire

Ex : Nîmes-Métropole (France)

(Etienne et al. 2008)

A common representation of a part of the world

A shared model of a particular system

Modelling Systemic point of view

Representation sharing

ProblemActors

ResourcesDynamics

Interactions

A participatory modelling method for co-designinga shared representation of system

P A R D I

Each step is formulated as a specific questionrelated to the general question

How is PARDI related to ComMod?

usually comes early in the progress of a ComMod process

To allow exploring consequences of actions, its output (a conceptual model) is then implemented as a « playable » model, usually one of the following:

a role-playing game (human players + board game + rules)an individual-based model (actors are computerized agents)Qualitative model

involve the stakeholders in the design stage

ComMod

An iterative and adaptive approach

time

Field

Lab

ComMod and PE?

We are at the very first stage

We tested Qualitative Modelling methods to model surveillance and control system

Surveillance Control

Epizootic

Backyard farmer

Semi-commercial farmer

Village Veterinary Worker

District Agriculture and Forestry Officer

Province Agriculture and Forestry Officer

FAO

National Animal Health center (NAHC)

Open interviews in Laos

stakeholders

Qualitative modellingLoop analysis

Directed graph of the HPAI H5N1 surveillance and control system in LaosArrow with pointed end: positive influence. Arrow with oval end: negative influence between variables.

Surveillance

Control

Epizootic

Thank You!

PENAPH Technical WorkshopChang Mai December, 11 – 13 2012