A cool look on global warming

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This is undisputable facts about "Global Warming" - Oh no, its "Climate Change" hang on sorry I got that wrong - it "Carbon Pollution" - we must tax the public!

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  • ACoolLookatGlobalWarmingPresentationto

    SydneyLegacyat

    Level1,AWABuilding47YorkStreet,Sydney

    PhilipR.WoodVicePresident,TheLavoisierGroup

    Thursday30June2011

  • Istheendoftheworldreallynigh?

    DuststormasIdroveacrossSydneyHarbourBridgeat6:30amonWednesday23September2009

  • There is no opinion, however absurd, which men will not readily embrace as soon as they can be brought to the conviction that it is generally adopted.

    (Schopenhauer, Die Kunst Recht zu Behalten)

  • TheAustralianpublicfailtheknowledgetestoncarbon.53% believeclimatechangecausestsunamis40% believeclimatechangecausesearthquakes37% believeclimatechangecausesvolcaniceruptions93% thinkCO2 constitutesmorethan1%oftheatmosphere47% thinkCO2 ispollution37% thinkweshouldtrytoreducecarboninthebody44% thinkfoodanddrinkwouldbesaferifithadnocarbonorCO2 init

  • ButIwanttostartwithfactsthatwecanallagreeupon:

    (globalwarmingalarmistsandrealistsalike)

  • CarbonDioxide(CO2)is:

    1. Atinytracegas(385partspermillion:lessthanatwentyfifthof1%oftheatmosphere)

    2. Naturallyoccurring3. Invisible4. Odourless5. Nontoxic6. Necessaryforallplantlife(photosynthesis)7. Emittedbyallanimallife(breathingetc.)

  • SowhyisCO2 calledapollutant?

    Remarkableanswer:

    Becauseitisagreenhousegas eventhoughgreenhousegasesmakePlanetEarthliveable(+14oCcurrentaverageglobaltemperature,ratherthan19oCotherwise)

  • Whenwehearthewordscarbonpollutionwearelisteningtoanoxymoron.

    Carbonisthemostusefulelementonearth.Inadditiontodiamonds,graphite,coal,oilandnaturalgas,carbonisthebuildingblockofeverylivingplantandanimalcell.Intheatmosphereitisnaturallypresentintraceamountsas

    carbondioxide(CO2)andmethane(CH4).

  • Bayswater Power Station (Hunter Valley, NSW) operating at maximum capacity

    The visible white gas is steam from the cooling towers, with the tall chimneys emitting invisible CO2

    OneoftheBigPolluterskeepingourlightson!

  • Greenhousegases,inorderofimportance,comprise:

    Watervapour(H2O) 97%

    CarbonDioxide(CO2) 2%

    Methane(CH4),NitrousOxide(N2O),etc.

    1%

    Sofluffyrainclouds(H2O),yourexhaledbreath(40,000ppm CO2,8,000ppm insubmarines)andcowbelches

    (CH4)areallvillainouspollutants!

  • Humankindcurrentlycontributes3% oftheEarthsproductionofatmosphericCO2.

    The97% balanceofnaturallyoccurringCO2 productionissplitbetweenanimals,vegetationandsoils(53%)andtheoceans(44%).Boththelandbasedbiosphereandtheoceanbasedaquaspherealsoabsorb

    hugeamountsofCO2.

  • CarbonDioxideCycle

    AnnualCarbonCyclebetweentheOceans,VegetationandSoils,HumankindandtheAtmosphere

    N.B.Theoceanscontain50timesmoreCO2thantheatmosphere.

  • EyjafjallajokulVolcanoEruptsinIcelandin2010

  • Mt.PuyehueEruptsinChilein2011

  • CO2 isatinytracegasintheEarthsatmosphere

  • HumanitymakesaminusculecontributiontoCO2 itselfatinybutvitalandnatural

    tracegas.

  • IfonlyhumankindcouldemitmoreCO2!

  • Between1950andtheearly1990s,worldpopulationX2.2,foodproductionX2.719702000sawa15%percapitaincreaseinfoodconsumption

    BenefitsofCarbonDioxide

    Wheat 60%Legumes 62%Othercereals 70%Fruits 33%Tubercrops 67%Vegetables 51%

    Doublingcurrent CO2 levelswouldimprovefoodcropyieldsaslistedbelow:

  • 385 ppm(presentambient)

    535ppm 685ppm 835ppm

    CO2 isPlantFoodHereiswhathappensoveroneyearwithmoreCO2

  • Cruelia starvesthetrees!

  • ThewarmingeffectofCO2 declineslogarithmically

    Thefirst20ppmCO2 intheatmospherehasagreatereffectthanthefollowing300ppm.TheincrementaleffectofincreasingCO2 atthe

    present385ppmlevelisalmostimmeasurable.

  • Australiacontributes1.4%ofglobalanthropogenicgreenhouseemissions.

    HistoricandProjectedAtmosphericCarbonContributionsbytheUnitedStates,ChinaandAustralia

  • Australiascommitment

    ThebasecasebipartisanplanistoreduceAustraliasemissionsby5%by

    2020.

    ETScasualty

    ETScasualty

    Nextcasualty?

    Finalvictor?

  • Thisarbitrarycommitmentwouldthereforehavehadthefollowingannualimpactonthe

    worldsgreenhouseeffect:

    100%x2%x3%x10%x1.5%x5%=0.0000045%

    orabouta22millionth!(EqualtoonehumanstepinatrekaroundtheEarthsequator!)

  • destroytheGreatBarrierReef reduceagriculturalproductioninthe

    MurrayDarlingBasinby90%by2100duetodrought

    inundateAustraliascoastalhomesmelttheSnowyMountainsskifields ruinKakaduNationalPark

    AndyettheGreenstellusthatAustraliasfailuretocutCO2 emissionswill

    Senator Bob Brown, The Australian GreensTheyneverexplainhoworwhy!

  • Brisbane1893~118yearsago!

  • So,tojustifythishugenationaleffortforeffectivelyniloutcome,carbondioxidemustbetherealvillainofcatastrophicGlobalWarming:

    Right?

  • Wrong!

    600MillionYearsofTemperatureandCO2 shownocorrelation.Overthelast150millionyears,geologicalprocesseshavetaken

    90%ofthecarbondioxideoutoftheatmosphere.

  • Temperature,CO2 andsealevelsforthelast20,000years

    Relativestabilityduringthemostrecent7,000yearswhenhumancivilizationhasadvancedmostrapidly.

  • Stabletemperaturerangesinceendoflasticeage

  • Overthelast5,000yrstherewerethree warmperiods(greensections)whereitwaswarmerthantodayandtheEarthsurvived

    whilehumancivilizationflourished!

  • WhatisEarthsnormaltemperature?HistoricalEvidence TheLast1,000years

  • Globallyaveragedtemperaturevariationsbetween1850and2000showtheemergencefromtheLittleIceAgeintheearly

    1900s,slightcoolinginthe1940stothe1970s,andthenwarmingagainsincethe1970s,followedbycoolingsince1998.

    IndustrialAge:1850 present

  • SatelliteMeasurements:

    1979 2011

  • NorecentcorrelationbetweenrisingCO2 andslightlycoolingtemperature

  • Exactlywhatclimatechange?

    Globaltemperaturehasgentlydeclinedoverthepastdecade. Bothpolaricecapsarecurrentlyincreasing. Sealevelscontinuethesamegentleminusculerise. Cyclones/hurricanesarethesameasever. TheMurrayDarlingbasinisawash. TheGreatBarrierReefisthriving. BountifulSnowyMountainsskiseason,etc.,etc

    Sotherhetoricallanguagehaschanged:whatwasonceglobalwarmingandthenclimatechange,hasbecomepollution,priceoncarbon,energysecurityandgreenjobsinthegreen

    economy.

  • DidntAlGoresaytheArcticIcewillbegoneby2012?

    Anecdotalevidenceshowstherewereperiodswhenicecoverwaslessthanin2007,(e.g.shipsinthe1930snavigatedthenorthwestpassagewithouttheassistanceoficebreakersorGPStrackingoficefloes),sothereisnothingunusualaboutthelevelsofArcticIcewehavetoday

    Arcticpolarbearpopulationhasincreasedfrom5,00050yearsagoto25,000today.

    ThegraphofArcticIcecoverofthelastsevenyears,shows2007astheyearwiththeleasticecoversincesatelliteshavebeenused(in1979theystarted)

    In2007somepeoplemadeaguessthatthewarmingtrendwouldcontinue.AlGoreandothershaverepeatedthatguess.Sincethenthearcticicecoverhasincreased.

  • SydneyHarbourwillrisethelengthofyourlittlefinger(6cm)this21st century,justasitdidlastcentury.

    SealevelmeasurementsatFortDenison

  • MurrayDarlingBasinYearlyRainfall

    1900TO2010

  • Arecyclonesincreasing?No!

  • Everythingpresentedsofarhasbeenindisputableempiricallyobserveddata.Globalwarmingadvocateshavenochoicebuttoagree,eveniftheyarereluctanttobeopenwithusallonthesematters.

    Thedifferencecomeswhencomputermodellingthefuture:rubbishin,rubbishout!

    "Peopleunderestimatethepowerofmodels.Observationalevidenceisnotveryuseful.Ourapproachisnotentirelyempirical."

    JohnMitchell,principalresearchscientistattheUKMetOffice

    Nocomputermodelhaseversuccessfullypredictedfutureglobaltemperature.Theinputsaretoomany,toocomplexandoftenunknown.

  • TheIPCCsboguscomputermodels IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangesetupin1988

    underUNauspices Doesnotcarryoutresearchormonitorclimate Assimilatesavailableinformationtoinformgovernmentsof

    theworldviacomputerizedprojectionsGlobalquasimonopolyofofficialscientificadvice Hasmutatedintoapoliticallycorrectalarmistpressure

    groupNotorioushockeystickquietlydroppedfromlatest2007

    Report JointwinnerwithAlGoreoftheNobelPeace Prize!IftheIPCCwasntthere,whywouldanyonebeworriedabout

    climatechange?RajendraPachauri,ChairmanoftheUNIntergovernmentalPanel

    onClimateChange,Science,February5,2010

  • TheIPCCsHockeyStick

    AnexposedscientificfraudknowinglymisusedbyAlGoreinhismovieAnInconvenientTruth.Whatanironicname!

  • Whydidsomanyscientistsgetitwrong?

    Climategatebreakson20November2009

    TheemailshavediscreditedmostoftheleadIPCC

    authors.

    Recommendedreading:ClimategateAnalysisbyJohnCostella

    http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/climategate_analysis.pdf

  • TheIPCCmodelspredictmonotonicwarming,buttheyarealreadywrong!

  • LeadingGlobalWarmingAlarmistsInternational AlGore/IPCC(JointNobelPeacePrizewinners).SirNicholasStern(AuthoroftheU.K.GovernmentsSternReview).

    AustralianPoliticians AlloftheALP(JuliaGillard,KevinRudd,PennyWong,PeterGarrett,GregCombet,etc.butMartinFerguson?),someLiberals(MalcolmTurnbull,etc.),alloftheGreens(BobBrown,ChristineMilne,etc.).Independents?(TonyWindsor,RobOakeshott)

    AustralianProfessionals(generally) Governmentdepartments,academics,CSIRO,media(includingABCandFairfax),greenindustrycorporates,financiers,lawyersandaccountants,NGOs,etc.

    AustralianGovernmentAppointees TimFlannery(2007AustralianoftheYear.AuthorofTheWeatherMakers.AustraliasClimateChangeCommissioner).RossGarnaut(AuthoroftheAustralianGovernmentsClimateChangeReport).

  • Politicians FormerALPministers(PeterWalsh,MichaelCosta,etc.),mostLiberals(TonyAbbott,NickMinchin,CoryBernardi,DennisJensen,AndrewRobb,etc.),allNationals(includingBarnabyJoyce,RonBoswell,JohnWilliams,etc.),Independents?(BobKatter)

    Scientists BobCarter,IanPlimer,BillKininmoth,DavidEvans,GarthPaltridge,JenniferMarohasy,JoanneNova,DavidArchibald

    Lobbyists RayEvans(LavoisierGroup)VivForbes(CarbonSenseCoalition)MaxRheese(AustralianClimateScienceCoalition)LeonAshby(ClimateScepticsParty)

    Journalists AndrewBolt,MirandaDevine,TerryMcCrann,ChristopherPearson,PiersAkerman,AlanJones,TheAustraliannewspaper,talkbackradio

    ArchbishopsandAristocrats!

    CardinalGeorgePell,LordMonckton,LordNigelLawson

    LeadingGlobalWarmingSceptics

  • TheLabor/Green/IndependentGovernmentsProposedCarbonTax

    Multibilliondollarperannumcarbontax:i.e.greatbignewtaxoneverything!Whoarethe1000bigpolluters?

    Createsmassivedistortionsinoureconomy Directlyreducesinternationalcompetitiveness Producesgrindingcompliancecostsandbureaucratic

    interventiontocushionadverseindustryandhouseholdimpactsforpoliticalexpediency

    Providesabonanzaforthefinancialandprofessionalservices,greenindustriesandgovernmentdepartmentswhichwilltakecommissions,fees,subsidiesandtaxesfromthecashflowbadluckfortheproductivesector,thetaxpayerandtheconsumer!

  • Butnow,thePeoplesAssemblyhasbeenscrappedfora

    MultiPartyClimateChangeCommittee

    Eligibilityrequiresbeliefthatthescienceissettledandthatapriceoncarbonwill

    providecertaintytobusiness.

    Theonlycertainpriceoncarbonisnottohaveoneatall.

  • TheGillard/BrownGovernmentsClimateChangeCommission

    TheCommissionisanindependentbodysetupbythefederalgovernmenttoprovideinformationonclimate

    changeandhelpinformthedebate ABCSpokeswoman30April,2011

    Infact,thetaxpayerfundedCommissionisabiasedpropagandamachinecomprisedentirelyofclimate

    changealarmiststryingtostifleonesideofthedebate.

    NowtheGovernmentapparentlyneedstaxpayerstofunda$12millionadvertisingcampaigntoconvincean

    increasinglydubiouspublic.

  • If the policy doesnt reduce carbon then it is purely a tax. Theother problem is that under this policy, at any time in the futurethe government of the day can change the cost of carbon sothere is no certainty for us to make investment decisions.

    PaulOMalleyChiefExecutiveOfficer

    BluescopeSteel

    BusinessCertainty?

  • Politicalplainspeakonthecarbontax

    The document obviously contemplates broad coverage of the economybut it also leaves open the discussion that we need to have about howthat might be dealt with, whether or not we phase the scheme intodifferent sectors of the economy but the important thing again is thePM acknowledged there are price impacts in the economy from acarbon price and also indicated, as you would expect from a Laborgovernment, that we will assist those people who need the assistancethe most, in particular obviously pensioners and low income householdswill be firmly in our mind and we will ensure that every dollar raisedfrom the carbon price mechanism is committed to help households andto help industry make the transition to lower emissions in the future.

    GregCombetMinisterforClimateChange

    There.Hopefullythatsclearedthingsup!

  • 20%RenewableEnergyTargetby2020

    Mostrenewableenergyispresentlyhydro(5%withlittlescopeforincrease)andbagassefromsugarcane(1%)

    Windandsolar(1%)donotproducebaseloadpower(thereforerequire~85%baseloadbackup)

    Baseloadfromgeothermalhotrocksdifficultandisolated Uranium(stillruledoutpoliticallyinAustralia) CarbonGeoSequestration(expensive,nonuniformand

    unproven)

    N.B.Alloftheabovenewtechnologiesaremuchmoreexpensivethancoalfiredpower.ThereforeAustralianelectricitypriceswillcontinuetorocketupwards.

    Currently7%

  • TheAustralianNewspaper 30August2010

  • NSWGovtsDesalinationPlant&WindFarm:CombinationoftwoWhiteElephants!

    Sitevisitto$100mCapitalWindFarmnearLakeGeorgebyPhilipWoodonSunday11April2010

    Aerialviewofthe$2bnKurnellDesalinationPlantunderconstructionwhileSydneysdamsfillup

  • ThefinanciallyembattledNSWLaborGovernmentspentyourmoneyonscientificallyilliterate

    scaremongering.ThethreatofacarbondioxidetaxcosttheNSWtaxpayer$10billioninthesaleofelectricity

    generatingassets.

  • Hilarious! WorldLeadersmeettodiscusscontrollingtheclimate

    Copenhagen,December2009

    ThehubrisofaGreektragedy

  • "Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.

    -Eric Hoffer

    (The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements)

    "It is error alone which needs the support of government. Truth can stand by itself."

    -Thomas Jefferson

  • TheSpanishExperienceinpast5years(similarclimateandGDPtoAustralia)

    Householdelectricitycostsup30%,despitegovernmentsubsidy Industryelectricitycostsup100% BusinessesandjobsthereforeleavingSpain Unemployment20%andrising EverygreenjobcoststhetaxpayerUS$770,000 2.2realjobslostforeverygreenjobcreated Lackofbaseloadpowermeanselectricitysupplyhasbecome

    unreliable ThisistheSpanishexampleadvocatedbytheObama

    Administration! SpanishGovernmentisnowwithholdingsubsidiesbecauseit

    cantaffordthem. Clickon:http://www.juandemariana.org/pdf/090327employmentpublicaidrenewable.pdf

  • Will2020be.liketheLittleIceAge?

    .Or,instead,theMediaevalWarmPeriod?

    Weneedtoprepareforeither Nooneknows!

    TheIPCCsplanhasntworked,wontworkandcantwork.

    Whatshouldwedo?

  • Letus

    appreciateandtrustNatureswondrousdynamicenvironmentandceaseourclimatefear.

    Instead,wewillfocusourcreativity,energyandresourcesonthetimelesschallengeofadaptingtonaturalchangesinourclimateandoneliminatingrealmanmadepollutiontoexpressourinherent

    carefortheEarth.

  • PhilipR.WoodVicePresident

    TheLavoisierGroup

    Phone:+61(0)438675501

    Email:philip@intec.com.au

    Web:www.lavoisier.com.au

    A Cool Look at Global WarmingSlide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4But I want to start with facts that we can all agree upon:(global warming alarmists and realists alike)Carbon Dioxide (CO2 ) is:So why is CO2 called a pollutant?Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49Slide Number 50Slide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54Slide Number 55Slide Number 56Slide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 59Slide Number 60Slide Number 61Slide Number 62Slide Number 63