Faster Networks Faster to the Abyss?

Maximilian Ott CTO, Incoming Media

Sr. Principal Researcher, NICTA max@incoming-media.com

Objective

• Carriers need to provide a different service

• From “packet/bit delivery” to “content logistics”

• Outline

• Why nobody likes Carriers

• The Standoff between Carrier & Service Providers

• Incoming: Solving Mobile Video with Data Science

• A Proposal for a new Carrier Service

2

Nobody likes Carriers

3

Voice

SMS

http://bit.ly/1bOmlVl

Not too long ago they actually provided a service customers wanted

Nobody likes Carriers

4

Voice

SMS

http://bit.ly/1bOmlVl

YouTube

Carrier

Facebook

… Even the Financial Markets

5

… Even the Financial Markets

• Carriers look more & more like utilities

• Valuation (P/E Multiple) will drop accordingly

6

Mexican Standoff

7

Service Provider

Carrier

Advertiser

But it is a Symbiotic Dependency

• Increased User Experience, increased Income

• Great User Experience requires great network

• Service Providers need to incentivize Carriers to help maximizing User Engagement

8

How to Share?

9

Service Provider

Carrier

Advertiser ???

How to Share – Shapley Values?

• Model as a cooperative game which derives a distribution among the players of the total surplus generated by their coalition.

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value

• Ma, et al, Internet Economics: The use of Shapley value for ISP settlement, CoNeXT ‘07

10

More pragmatic – Let’s look at Cost

• What is the REAL cost of delivering a Movie?

• Infrastructure (CapEx) & Operation (OpEx)

• Dominated by Capex

• Capex driven by PEAK demand

• Leads to Congestion Pricing

• Cost varies greatly based on congestion – Orders of Magnitude!

• Same for service providers (servers, connectivity)

11

More pragmatic – Let’s look at Cost

12

Real delivery cost of a Bit can vary by

Orders of Magnitude!

Lower the Peaks, Filling the Valleys

13

Time- shifting

Lower the Peaks, Filling the Valleys

14

Time- shifting

But Data Services cannot do that!

What is the traffic mix?

15

We

b Games

Voice M2M

Live

Anything special about Video?

16

t

“Created”

Hours – days - months

Consumed

FedEx – Packet delivery?

FedEx – Logistics Company!

FedEx – Logistics Company!

The ideal place for zero-latency delivery

Content Logistics

20

Content Logistics – Control Peaks

21

Lowering Cost by Increasing Traffic!

22

Incoming Media

23

The Phone IS part of the network!

• Lots of storage

• Lots of processing

• Big screen

• Lots of sensors

• ONE, very loyal user

• The FIRST screen

24

Incoming Media

• Smart on-device content pre-positioning

• Create great mobile video experiences

• Increase engagement and satisfaction

• Save money doing this

25

Incoming’s Solution

• Pre-fetching content on the mobile utilizing spare network capacity when available.

• Decision what and when to pre-fetch is based on our ability to learn (and predict):

• user behavior

• user’s social network behavior

• mobile’s context and network environment

• operator’s preferences

26

Incoming’s Architecture

27

Incoming TV App

• Proves value proposition of Smart Caching to user

• Over 1.3M installs

• 80% cache-hit ratio

• Top 20% users watching 10 to 20+ mins per day

• Zero mobile data cost

• Instant start, zero stalling, zero buffering, HD video

28

What should Carriers do?

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Content Logistics Service

• New content-centric network API

• This is a bit different to CCN proposals

• Smart distributed storage

• This includes mobile device (terminals)

• Opportunistic pre-positioning of content

• Less-than-best-effort traffic class

• Only forward when there is nothing else to

30

Content-centric network API

• Declaring of intent

• Probabilistic intent of future use

• Declaring meta-data

• Prediction algorithms rely on discovering correlations

• Providing feedback

• What was the final utility of retrieved content

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Smart distributed storage

• Storage before bottleneck

• Using meta-data and past behavior to predict:

• what to store

• when to move between storage

• Building on IEEE 2200 (HQME)?

32

New Traffic Class

• Less-than-best-effort traffic class

• Focus on keeping pipes full

• Using IP Header DiffServ Code Points (DSCP)?

• Technology is there

• May require new Traffic Management insights

• Various large carriers are thinking about it

• Interest in exploiting LTE Broadcast

33

Conclusion

• Carriers need to provide a different service

• From “packet/bit delivery” to “content logistics”

• Video is THE dominating traffic source

• Need new technical approach & business model to tackle it

• Move from ‘dumb pipes’ to ‘smart logistics’

34

Faster Networks Faster to the Abyss?

Maximilian Ott CTO, Incoming Media

Sr. Principal Researcher, NICTA max@incoming-media.com