5th discipline

© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E .

Systems ThinkingLessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker, Roberts, Ross and Smith

Presentation by

Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowskaAmy Rae @elucidateamy

http://twitter.com/jbeltowska


http://twitter.com/elucidateamy



Oh hai again!

2

© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 3

All of these things are systems.


Are you looking at a system or a bunch of stuff?

Can you identify the individual parts?

Do the parts affect each other?

Do the parts together produce an effect that is

different from the effect of each part on its own?

Does the effect persist in a variety of

circumstances?4

3

1

2

x


Ping pong is a system.

PART 2

PART 3

PART 4

PART 1

IT HAS IDENTIFIABLE INDIVIDUAL PARTS.



RULES OF THE GAME

LAWS OF PHYSICS

LAWS OF PHYSICS

THE PARTS AFFECT EACH OTHER.



RULES OF THE GAME

LAWS OF PHYSICS

LAWS OF PHYSICS

TOGETHER, THESE PARTS CREATE A UNIQUE EFFECT.


Ping pong is a system.THIS EFFECT CAN BE REPLICATED IN MULTIPLE SITUATIONS.

RULES OF THE GAME

LAWS OF PHYSICS

LAWS OF PHYSICS

X ,2 X ...3X ,1


Finding and analyzing systems is difficult work.

The following pages will introduce systems thinking,

a set of tools and methods to help you along the way.


WARNING:

Systems always surprise us.

Don’t fret! This way for the three main reasons why.

①© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 11

We are in a linear thinkers

on-n

linearworld.


Crops Yield

Fertilizer Application

In a nonlinear relationship, the cause does not produce a

proportional effect.

is range represents the optimal amount of fertilizer to apply, and if too much is applied,the yield might even go down.


Reality is made up of circles, but we see straight

lines. Herein lies the beginnings of our limitation as

systems thinkers.

Peter Senge


The Linearity Double Dunk

Formal education rewards

linear thinking.

Western languages are biased

towards a linear world view

because of their

subject-to-verb

object structure. This

structure trains our

brains to link together

thoughts in the same way.

Language shapes perception.

Research with young children

indicates that we have

latent skills as systems

thinkers that are

undeveloped, even

repressed, by formal

education.


In the real world, boundaries don’t exist. There are only

boundaries of thought, perception and social agreement.②


In decision making, rationality of individuals is limited by

the information they have.

BOUNDED RATIONALITY

Fishermen are not aware of the total number of fish in the ocean or how many fish others harvest. This is a typical example of a dilemma referred to as “The Tragedy of the Commons” - a situation in which a group of individuals act rationally in their own self-interest and deplete a shared limited resource.


Tacit knowledge

Explicit knowledge

MENTAL MODELS

Individuals are also inhibited by their mental models - the

images, assumptions, and stories which we carry in our

minds of ourselves, other people, institutions, and every

aspect of the world.

③© 2 0 1 1 J OA N N A B E LTO W S K A A N D A M Y R A E . 18

Systems fool us by presenting

themselves as a single event.

The stock market crashed in 1929, making headlines. This single event was overemphasized, and other, more important, events influencing the Great Depression were less salient, like the 200,000 factory workers being replaced by machines and farmland value falling by 40%.

Wheat prices per bushel in dollars

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1900 1910 1920 1930


Events accumulate into dynamic patterns of behavior.

e Great Depression begins


Long-term behavior provides clues to the underlying system structure.

System structures are created by the choices people make

consciously or unconsciously over time.

In systems thinking, structure is the pattern of

interrelationships among the key components of the system.

That might include hierarchy and process, but it also

includes attitudes and perceptions, the quality of products,

the ways in which decisions are made, etc.

e winter of 1929 was a so called “long wave” winter. Long wave theory, a subset of systems thinking, says that economic crisis come and go in cycles.

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http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/6796
































































































Researchers at MIT came up with ways to understand and

categorize different types of systems.

With practice, these tools can help you unpack complex

problems in a flash.


Think of these tools as your diagnostic repertoire.


T H E F O U N D A T I O N O F S Y S T E M S M O D E L I N G

23

Links and Loops

Links are arrows that represent influence between elements

in a system.

Loops are combinations of links that that reveal

interdependencies; In a loop, every element is both the

cause and the effect.

Example: The more lolcat pictures on

icanhazcheeseburger.com, the more time people spend

there, commenting on lolcat pictures, and becoming inspired

to create more. (Because we all know lolcats are awesomely

hilarious!)TIME SPENT ON THE SITE

NO. OF LOLCATS

Cause

NUMBER OF LOLCATS

TIME SPENT ON THE SITE

Eect

A LINK:

A LOOP:

Balancing loops occur in systems that are self-regulating.

The system has an inherent goal, and when that goal isn’t

met, intense pressure is applied to reach it.

Example: Your refrigerator’s goal is to keep food at a chilly

35 degrees. When a half-eaten pizza enters, the refrigerator

decreases the temperature to cool the warm pizza, bringing

the refrigerator back to equilibrium.

Reinforcing loops occur in systems that steadily grow

and/or collapse over time.

Example: The Nuclear Arms Race between the US and the

Soviet Union during the cold war is a typical example of a

reinforcing loop. The US created the first atomic bomb in

1945. The Soviet Union followed in 1949. By the 1950s both

sides had enough nuclear power to obliterate each other.

The system then declined when both stockpiles decreased in

the 1990s.


T W O T Y P E S O F L O O P S T H A T O C C U R F R E Q U E N T L Y

24

Balancing and Reinforcing Loops

(R)

US ARMS

SOVIET ARMS

THREAT TO SOVIET UNION

NEED TO BUILD SOVIET ARMS

THREAT TO US

NEED TO BUILD US ARMS

Sources: Natural Resources Defense Council (1946-2002 data), Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2003-2006 data)

45,000

0

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

SOVIET

USA

NUCLEAR STOCKPILES 1945 - 2005

Exponential growth

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datab19.asp

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datab19.asp


A D A P T E D F R O M T H E F I F T H D I S C I P L I N E B Y P E T E R M . S E N G E . U S E T H E S E T E M P L A T E S A S A S T A R T I N G P L A C E F O R S Y S T E M A N A L Y S I S .

25

Balancing and Reinforcing Loops: Templates

Optional intermediate element (might be a consequence of performance)

Growing action(what you do, or someone else does, to generate growth or decline)

Optional intermediate element(might be a driver of performance and/or a consequence of action)

Actual performance(that you measure or observe, which you can see growing or declining)

REINFORCING LOOP TEMPLATE BALANCING LOOP TEMPLATE

Actual performance (that you measure or observe; often a problem symptom)

Corrective action (can be a quick x or a driver of your performance)

Gap (discrepancy between desired and actual performance, either visible to you as a shortfall, evident as a need, or felt as a pressure)

Target or goal (desired performance, either known or unknown to you)

Optional intermediate element (might be a driver of performance)

(R)

(B)

Causal loop diagrams combine multiple loops and reveal

more detail about the system. A “plus” indicates that the

elements change in the same direction while a “minus”

indicates that the elements change in opposite directions.

Example: The bank panic during the Great Depression was

caused by a public fear of bank failure. This caused people to

withdraw their personal savings, reducing bank solvency,

which in turn drove private withdrawals of funds further in a

spiraling, reinforcing, loop.


H E L P I N G Y O U T E L L A M O R E R O B U S T S T O R Y

26

Causal Loop Diagrams

Casual loop diagram describing the bank panic during the Great Depression (adapted from Beyond Training Wheels by John Sterman).

FEAR OF BANK FAILURE

PERCEIVED SOLVENCY OF BANK

TENDENCY TO WITHDRAW PERSONAL SAVINGS

WEAK ORUNCERTAIN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

BANK RESERVESON HAND

SOLVENCYOF BANK

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

(+) (+)

-


A P E R I O D I C T A B L E O F T H E M O S T C O M M O N S Y S T E M B E H A V I O R S

27

System Archetypes

If we think of each system as a story, system archetypes

are the classic stories that we keep seeing over and over

again. By measuring our systems against these classics, we

can quickly identify the dominating behavioral patterns.

For example, “Fixes That Backfire”: A company is struggling

with profitability (the problem symptom) and decides to let

some people go to reduce costs (the fix). Profitability initially

improves, but the loss of experienced employees as well as a

drop in morale impact productivity negatively (the

unintended consequence).

CURRENT PROFITS

PRODUCTIVITY

STAFFINGCUTS

Unintended consequences

Problem symptom

Fix

PROBLEM SYMPTOM

Original threshold of tolerance

“Fix” applied


A D A P T E D F R O M T H E F I F T H D I S C I P L I N E B Y P E T E R M . S E N G E

Archetypes: Comparison Chart

28

REINFORCING LOOP

An important variable accelerates up (or down),

with exponential growth or collapse.

“SHIFTING THE BURDEN”

The reliance of the short-term fix grows stronger,

while efforts to fundamentally correct the real

problem grow weaker. The problem symptom

alternately improves and deteriorates.

BALANCING LOOP

There is a movement toward a target (without

delay), or else oscillation, hovering around a single

target (with delay).

“LIMITS TO GROWTH”

There is a growth (sometimes dramatic growth), leveling off or falling into decline.

“TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS”

Total activity grows, but the gains from individual

activities are dropping.

“ACCIDENTAL ADVERSARIES”

Each side’s performance either declines or stays

level and low, while enmity or competitiveness

increases over time.

“FIXES THAT BACKFIRE”

A problem symptom alternately improves (the

problem variable goes down) and deteriorates

(the problem goes up, worse than before).


A D A P T E D F R O M T H I N K I N G I N S Y S T E M S B Y D O N E L L A M E A D O W S

29

Stocks And Flows

Stock and flow diagrams are another way to analyze

systems. Stocks are tangible and measurable, and they

change over time through the actions of flows. Stocks act as

buffers, delays or shock absorbers in systems.

Example: Imagine you’ve decided to take a bath. You begin

to fill your bathtub with hot water and go read while you’re

waiting for the tub to fill. When you come back, the water is

a bit too hot for your liking. To get the temperature down

quickly, you open up the drain and turn the cold water faucet

on. Your bathtub is now a simple system with one stock (the

water in the tub), one inflow (the cold water) and one

outflow (the water that is leaving through the drain).

Stock

Inow

WATER IN BATH TUB

Inow OutowStock

COLD WATER DRAINED WATER


T H E S Y S T E M S T O O L K I T I N A C T I O N

30

Systems Analysis Guidelines

All models are simplifications of the real world. It’s up to

you to decide how much detail to illustrate.

There are no right answers. Mapping out a system will

reveal a set of potential actions you may take. As you

become more a more proficient systems thinker, you’ll begin

to recognize the consequences of different interventions.

Cause and effect will not be closely related in time and

space. Don't look for leverage near the symptoms of your

problem.

Good results in a complex system depend on bringing in as

many perspectives as possible. Consider who else you can

bring in to make your system model more informed.

Use your intuition when you work with archetypes. It's not

critical that you pick the right archetype - as long as it rings

true with your story, it's good enough as a starting point.


MENTAL MODELS

SYSTEMS

PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR

EVENTSLE

VE

RA

GE

FO

R L

AS

TIN

G C

HA

NG

E

ADAPTED FROM THE FIFTH DISCIPLINE FIELDBOOK BY PETER M. SENGE

A good systems thinker avoids traps by looking for multiple

levels operating simultaneously.


A S T O R Y O F H O W S T R A T E G Y D E F E A T E D 1 : 2 5 O D D S

32

Good Systems Thinkers Make Good Strategists

On October 26, 1597, the Korean admiral Yi Sun-sin

famously defeated the Japanese fleet of 333 units with only

13 ships at his disposal.

Yi strategically chose the Myeongnyang Strait as the arena

for his last stand with the Japanese based on its strong

currents, narrowness, rough tides and surrounding shadowy

hillsides. By reading the environment as a system, admiral Yi

used it to his advantage.

No other naval battle involving fleets of this size, has

resulted in a victory for such a proportionately small force,

also making it one of the greatest military achievements in

world history.

Admiral Yi: a badass systems thinker.

The challenges society faces are growing.


Measles (1963)

Cancer (?)

Smallpox (1796)


In order to meet those challenges, we need to explore new

ways of thinking. Systems thinking is the cornerstone of

how adaptive organizations think about their world.


P U T T I N G S Y S T E M S T H I N K I N G I N T O P R A C T I C E

35

Designing a Systems Workshop

Tackling a huge problem? Systems analysis will help

elucidate multiple sides of the issue and identify areas of

opportunity. Workshops or brainstorms are great forums

for this type of analysis. Below is a (very) general overview

of a good workshop:

Study up: Learn your links, loops and archetypes. For

practice, sketch out systems diagrams of popular problems,

like Global Warming or Poverty.

Event Prep: Invite stakeholders from all levels of the

organization; Unique perspectives will make the analysis

more robust. Choose a room with a white board and bring

your markers!

Facilitation: In general, spend 1/4 of the time introducing

the concept and creating a safe space for open discussion.

Spend 1/2 of the time analyzing the problem on the white

board with the Systems Toolkit, and spend the remaining 1/4

looking for possible interventions in your diagram.

Darth suggests you use the “Five Whys” to help the group discover deeper interactions between elements.

“It’s like the old expression, ‘You are what you eat’.

If you start thinking differently, you see things differently.

And all your actions start to change.”

- Pat Walls, FedEx


Are you ready to switch to a loops-based diet?

Special thanks to our mentors and friends at

http://www.undercurrent.com






















Systems ThinkingLessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker, Roberts, Ross and Smith

Presentation by

Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowskaAmy Rae @elucidateamy






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