50-60 yearswe reinvent our world

Every

Core ConceptsGreat Surges of Development Creative

DestructionTechno-economic ParadigmLife-CYCLE of a GSD

Installation: Irruption & Frenzy StagesTurning PointDeployment: Synergy & Maturity Stages

Hegemony follows technology/GSDWhy is it important?Applying the model and our understanding of it

Great Surges of DevelopmentNot just a technological revolution, but a

global institutional/political/cultural revolution

Creative DestructionTechnology advances faster than society is

ready forTensions and resistance to the new revolution

from the socio-institutional sphere cause a painful decoupling process between the old regime and the new surge

The revolution is a shock, and thus, its benefits are not fully harnessed until the world system can acclimate to it and build around it

Techno-economic ParadigmThe best-practice model of capitalizing on the

potential of a technological revolutionThe assimilation of a tech. rev. into society

and our lives, so that the new technology becomes a natural and seamless part of the way we interact

It is all-pervasive, encompassing not just the business/economic sphere but institutional and cultural practices as well

Life-CYCLE of a GSD

Tech. Rev. Financial Bubble Collapse

Golden Age Political Unrest Tech. Rev.

Life-CYCLE of a GSD: InstallationGestation

The previous paradigm has matured; its industries are facing saturated markets and are looking for and investing in new ideas – a time of entrepreneurship and radical innovation

IrruptionA new technology bursts into the scene, fueled by investment money

generated by firms of the old paradigmAs a techno-economic split between old and new unfolds, the economy

suffers from unemployment, and either inflation or deflationThe world is changing and few entities are equipped and prepared for

itFrenzy

Financial capital takes over as the regulatory framework falls behindIntense exploration/investment – trial and error – open competitionRampant investment spurs the diffusion of the new paradigmGrowing rift between wealth and povertyFinancial bubble forms

Life-CYCLE of a GSD: Turning PointThe period that marks a swing from the

intense individualism of Frenzy to a broader realization of the potential unlocked by the now current paradigm

The financial bubble collapses, leaving many people desperate and angry, and in the wake of the crash regulations are implemented

Excess is constrained as an institutional framework grows around and guides the paradigm

Life-CYCLE of a GSD: DeploymentSynergy

Production capital replaces finance as the chief driver of the economyThe paradigm has spread across and been accepted in all sectors of

society – economic, institutional, and social – meaning its effects benefit a wider spectrum

Moral principles are in place, and a healthy rhythm of business and nearly full employment are achieved

Golden AgeMaturity

The paradigm has peaked and no longer offers growth potentialThe golden age still glimmers but less substantively, and those who

did not enjoy its advancements grow discontentUnrest across all spheres ensues, and the time is ripe for the next

revolutionPeripheral Expansion

Dying embers of the current paradigm: Internal markets have been tapped and the paradigm propagates across the globe

Hegemony Follows TechnologyThe core country, that which generally ignites the

GSD and experiences most keenly the growth it creates, is the world leader

The current paradigm is, by nature, the most effective ordinance of principles, practices, and interaction

Though the core country of the previous paradigm has an undisputed advantage in remaining the core country for the next, a GSD that signals a paradigm shift creates the opportunity for other players to catch up and forge ahead

Why is it Important?To remove us from the forest: displace us from the moment, from being locked in on our current situation, so that we may see the broader, more protracted implications and, ultimately then, to think more wisely and make better decisions based on them

Applying the ModelKeep in mind this is a guide attempting to organize the past

and extrapolate it into the future – the model created is not a perfect predictor but a solid template for fundamental expectations

Our Revolution: The Information RevolutionFrom the invention of the microprocessor to worldwide

connectivity, allowing instant communication and access to media and information across multiple, portable platforms

If applicable, where are we now in the model’s timeline?Turning Point?

Just experienced a collapse of the financial (and housing) market Regulations and oversight are gradually being implemented More institutional guidelines (be they of a governmental nature

or established within the private/business realm) are needed to determine and govern the standards of our current paradigm

Applying the Model

1971 1990s-early 2000s mid 2000s

2007/8 – present 2021 2031

(Tech. Rev. –Intel’s

Microprocessor)

(First Fin. Bubble and Collapse – Dot Coms)

(Second Fin. Bubble – Housing and Wall

Street)

(Second Collapse –Turning Point?)

(Golden Age?)

(Political Unrest and next GSD?)

Frenzy Capital Kills COLOR ?

They had everything

Great Idea: Social Networking; Photos; Locations; Mobile!

Luxurious Team: Founder---- Bill Nguyen (Onebox.com/Lala) CEO--------- Peter Pham (Billshrink) CPO--------- DJ Patil (Chief Scientist in LinkedIn)Huge Financing: $ 41 million VC (without

serious Business Plan )

What’s Wrong with COLOR ?

Huge First-Round Financing gave team huge pressure?

Terrible User Experience : Users do not know how to play it; If there are no other users around, I can not use it; People heard----installed----tested----ignored----deletedBad user experience and 41 million-breaking news

combined as a terrible negative effects.

Chinese Tech-Companies in US Security MarketAlmost every mainstream platform/

application in china can be found a prototype in US.

Every Chinese Tech-Company was fostered by US/Global financial capital at the beginning.

Financial capital made extremely profitable deal in these trades.

Brief Introductions

• BAIDU went public on Aug. 5, 2005, at $27 a share. When trading ended that day, shares of Baidu closed at $122, up 354%. The biggest opening on Nasdaq since the dot-com peak in 2000.

• VC at Early Stage: IDG/ Draper Fisher Jurveston/ Peninsula Capital

• Google has 2.6% share at first.

• YOUKU went public on Dec. 8, 2010, at $12.8 a share.When trading ended that day, shares of YOUKU closed at $33.44:

Up 161%. The biggest opening on NYSE since 2005.• VC at Early Stage: Bain Capital/ Sutter Hill Ventures/

Farallon Capital

Other Companies