31 employment-unemployment hearings congress... · unemployment was unchanged in january, as the...
TRANSCRIPT
S. HRG. 100-445, Pr. 31
EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT
HEARINGSBEFORE THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEECONGRESS OF TUE UNITED STATES
ONE HUNDREDTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
PART 31
FEBRUARY 5, MARCH 4, AND APRIL 1, 1988
Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
90-832 WASHINGTON: 1989
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office
US. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
[Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress]
SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESPAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana,Chairman Vice ChairmanWILLIAM PROXMIRE, Maryland AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS, CaliforniaLLOYD BENTSEN, Texas DAVID R. OBEY, WisconsinEDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts JAMES H. SCHEUER, New YorkJOHN MELCHER, Montana FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK, CaliforniaJEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico STEPHEN J. SOLARZ, New YorkWILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware CHALMERS P. WYLIE, OhioSTEVE SYMMS, Idaho OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, MaineALFONSE M. D'AMATO, New York HAMILTON FISH, JR., New YorkPETE WILSON, California J. ALEX McMILLAN, North Carolina
JUDITH DAVISON, Executive DirectorRICHARD F KAUFMAN, General Counsel
STEPHEN QUICK, Chief EconomistROBERT J. TOSTERUD Minority Assistant Director
(II)
CONTENTS
WITNESSES AND STATEMENTS
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1988
Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Openingstatement....................................................................................................................... 1
Wylie, Hon. Chalmers P., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Openingstatement.1
Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart-ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner,Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; and Kenneth V.Dalton, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions ......... 2
FRIDAY, MARCH 4, 1988
Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Openingstatem ent.....................................................................................................................
Roth, Hon. William V., Jr., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Open-ing statem ent................................................................................................................ 36
Proxmire, Hon. William, member of the Joint Economic Committee: Openingstatement....................................................................................................................... 40
Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart-ment of Labor, accompanied by Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commission-er, Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and John E. Bregger, AssistantCommissioner, Office of Current Employment Analysis ...................................... 40
FRIDAY, APRIL 1, 1988
Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Openingstatement....................................................................................................................... 93
Proxmire, Hon. William, member of the Joint Economic Committee: Openingstatement .94
Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart-ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner,Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; and Kenneth V.Dalton, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions ......... 95
SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1988
Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.:Prepared statement.9Press release No. 88-57 entitled "The Employment Situation: January
1988," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, February 5,1988 ........................................................... 11
FRIDAY, MARCH 4, 1988
D'Amato, Hon. Alfonse M., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Writ-ten opening statem ent................................................................................................. 38
Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.:Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alterna-
tive seasonal adjustment methods ........................................................... 42
(M)
IV
Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.-Continued PagePress release No. 88-103 entitled "The Employment Situation: February1988," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, March 4, 1988.. 44Response to Representative Solarz' request to supply a chart reflectingwhat the unemployment and poverty rates were for each year since1977 ........................................................... 71Response to Representative Solarz' request to supply the unemploymentrate preceding the increase in the minimum wage in the year in whichit was increased, and what the unemployment rate was the followingyear ........................................................... 79Response to Representative Solarz' query regarding people in privateindustry being worse off than they were in 1981 in nonsupervisorywork ........................................................... 84Response to Senator Proxmire's query regarding gains in U.S. manufac-turing productivity............................................................................................... 88Roth, Hon. William V., Jr., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Articleentitled "Now the Good News: The Middle Class Lives," from the Washing-ton Post, February 7, 1988 ........................................................... 67
FRIDAY, APRIL 1, 1988Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.:
Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alterna-tive seasonal adjustment methods ........................................................... 97Press release No. 88-156 entitled "The Employment Situation: March1988," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, April 1, 1989 .... 99Response to Senator Sarbanes' query regarding the range of unemploy-ment based on varying definitions of unemployment and the laborforce......................................................................................................................... 136Roth, Hon. William V., Jr., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Writ-ten opening statement................................................................................................. 95
EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1988
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES,JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE,
Washington, DC.The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m., in room SD-
628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chair-man of the committee) presiding.
Present: Senator Sarbanes and Representative Wylie.Also present: William Buechner, professional staff member.
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN
Senator SARBANES. The committee will come to order.We are very pleased once again to welcome Janet Norwood and
her associates in their monthly appearance before the Joint Eco-nomic Committee to discuss the employment and unemploymentfigure for January.
Today's hearing takes place in the context of the JEC's annualhearings on the economic outlook, in conjunction with the commit-tee's annual review and evaluation of the Economic Report of thePresident, which we expect to receive in the latter part of thismonth. Although this hearing is not formally a part of that series,the Commissioner's testimony comes at an opportune time, since itgives us a snapshot of the state of the economy.
A number of forecasters, including several who testified beforethe committee in late January, expressed the concern that lastyear's volatility in the financial markets could slow the economy orcause a recession this year.
Today's employment and unemployment figures are our firstdata on how the economy is doing in 1988, and I will now turn tothe Commissioner for her analysis of the January figures.
I will turn first, though, to Congressman Wylie, the rankingmember who is here with us this morning, for his statement.
OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE WYLIE
Representative WYLIE. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.It gives me great pleasure to welcome Commissioner Norwood
again this morning, especially when she is the bearer of good tid-ings. I note from your prepared statement that the civilian unem-ployment rate is unchanged, but household civilian employmentposted a gain of 385,000. The January job gain pushes the level oftotal employment to 114.1 million, a new record. More Americansare working today than ever before in history.
(1)
2
In addition, the employment-population ratio, an importantmeasure of our economy's ability to create enough jobs, also signalseconomic strength. At 62.1 percent, the January employment-popu-lation ratio hit a new high.We are now entering the 63d month of continued economic ex-pansion. This is now the longest peacetime upswing in Americanhistory.Over the course of this expansion, we have created 15 millionnew jobs. Unlike in many previous upturns, this economic progresshas occurred without reigniting inflation. With continued economicgrowth, we can look forward to millions of new jobs being createdin 1988.Now, you are going to tell us the real story, and I hope my analy-sis has been somewhat accurate.Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. And welcome, Commis-sioner Norwood.Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, we would be happy to hearfrom you.
STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER,BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC-COMPANIED BY THOMAS J. PLEWES, ASSOCIATE COMMISSION-ER, OFFICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATIS-TICS; AND KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER,OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONSMrs. NORWOOD. Thank you very much.I have with me as usual Mr. Dalton and Mr. Plewes. We arealways very pleased to be here.Unemployment was unchanged in January, as the overall joblessrate held at 5.7 percent and the civilian rate at 5.8 percent. Where-as the household survey showed continued employment strength,the business survey, although positive, showed much smaller gainsthan in recent months.Employment in the household survey rose by 385,000, bringingthe gain over the last 4 months in line with the business survey.With this increase, the proportion of the population at work is nowat a new high of 62.1 percent.In the payroll survey, when Government is excluded, the in-crease in jobs totaled 175,000. About 155,000 of this gain was in theretail trade industry, as employers made fewer postholiday cut-backs. It may be that in some areas where recruitment has beendifficult, retailers decided to retain more of their Christmas staffafter the holidays then they usually do.In the services industry, which has been very strong during thecurrent expansion, job growth slowed. Business services-responsi-ble for about 1 in every 8 new jobs during the current economicexpansion-held steady, but jobs in health services rose by 35,000.In finance, insurance and real estate, little over-the-month growthoccurred, as retrenchment in the financial industry began to takehold.January gains in manufacturing were more limited than inrecent months, with the largest increases concentrated in export-producing industries. Although several manufacturing industries,
3
such as steel and autos, showed signs of weakness, other factoriesmaking durable goods have been reporting higher orders and ship-ments than previously and have had continued job gains.
Employment in the mining industry, which had been edging upfor most of last year, fell by about 15,000. Most of that decline wasin oil and gas extraction, where fewer rigs were in operation inJanuary than in December.
The number of construction jobs fell by 50,000, reversing the gainreported in December, and the jobless rate among constructionworkers rose by 1.6 percentage points. These developments seemconsistent with such recent indicators as housing starts, real valueof construction put in place, building permits, and new housesales-all of which headed downward in December.
In summary, unemployment was unchanged in January. Employ-ment growth occurred, but its strength may have slowed somewhatfrom the rate of previous months. The number of jobs in the serv-ices industry leveled off, factory job gains were less widespreadthan they have been in the last few months, and employment de-clined in construction and mining. Nevertheless, we must remem-ber that the slowing of payroll employment gains that we have re-ported today takes place against a backdrop of employment gainsthat averaged nearly 400,000 per month during the last quarter oflast year. While some industries are clearly having difficulties, wehave in the past seen the numbers bounce back. We need anothermonth or two of data to determine whether the January numberswill be sustained.
Mr. Chairman, I have included at the end of my prepared state-ment a little discussion to remind the committee, call the attentionof the committee to our plans for changing the reference basis forthe Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. This issomething that we do about once a decade or so. We had plannedto do this earlier, but had to postpone it because of budget prob-lems, and we are pleased that we will be able to modernize thepresentation of the indexes beginning next month.
We would be glad to answer any questions you may have.[The prepared statement of Mrs. Norwood, together with the Em-
ployment Situation press release, follows:]
4
FOR RELEASE: 9:30 A.M.,E.S.T.FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1988
Advance copies of this statement are made available to thepress with the explicit understanding that, prior to 8:30a.m. Eastern time: (1) Wire services will not move overtheir wires copy based on information in this statement, (2)electronic media will not feed such information to memberstations, and (3) representatives of news organizations willnot contact anyone outside the Bureau of Labor Statistics toask questions or solicit comments about information in thisstatement.
PreparedStatement of
Dr. Janet L. NorwoodCommissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
before the
Joint Economic CommitteeUNITED STATES CONGRESS
February 5, 1988
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:
It is as always a pleasure to appear before the
Committee to provide a few comments on the nation's
employment situation.
Unemployment was unchanged in January, as the overall
jobless rate held at 5.7 percent and the civilian rate at
5.8 percent. Whereas the household survey showed continued
employment strength, the business survey, although positive,
showed much smaller gains than in recent months.
5
Employment in the household survey rose by 385,000
after seasonal adjustment, bringing the gain over the last 4
months in line with the business survey. With this
increase, the proportion of the population at work is now at
a new high of 62.1 percent.
In the payroll survey, when Government is excluded, the
increase in jobs totaled 175,000. About 155,000 of this
gain was in the retail trade industry, as employers made
fewer post-holiday cutbacks. It may be that, in some areas
where recruitment has been difficult, retailers decided to
retain more of their Christmas staff after the holidays than
they usually do.
In the services industry, which has been very strong
during the current expansion, job growth slowed. Business
services--responsible for about 1 in every 8 new jobs during
the current economic expansion--held steady, but jobs in
health services rose by 35,000. In finance, insurance and
real estate, little over-the-month growth occurred, as
retrenchment in the financial industry began to take hold.
January gains in manufacturing were more limited than
in recent months, with the largest increases concentrated in
export-producing industries. Although several manufacturing
industries, such as steel and autos, showed signs of
weakness, other factories making durable goods have been
reporting higher orders and shipments than previously and
have had continued job gains.
6
Employment in the mining industry, which had been
edging up for most of last year, fell by about 15,000. Most
of the decline was in oil and gas extraction, where fewer
rigs were in operation in January than in December.
The number of construction jobs fell by 50,000 (after
seasonal adjustment), reversing the gain reported in
December, and the jobless rate among construction workers
rose by 1.6 percentage points. These developments seem
consistent with such recent indicators as housing starts,
real value of construction put in place, building permits,
and new house sales -- all of which headed downward in
December.
In summary, unemployment was unchanged in January.
Employment growth occurred, but its strength may have
slowed somewhat from the rate of previous months. The
number of jobs in the services industry leveled off, factory
job gains were less widespread than they have been in the
last few months, and employment declined in construction and
mining. Nevertheless, we must remember that the slowing of
payroll employment gains that we have reported today takes
place against a backdrop of employment gains that averaged
nearly 400,000 per month during the last quarter of last
year. While some industries are clearly having
difficulties, we have in the past seen the numbers bounce
back. We need another month or two of data to determine
whether the January numbers will be sustained.
7
Prices
It has been our custom, Mr. Chairman to alert the
Committee to planned program changes. I want to call your
attention to our plans for changing the reference bases --
the years for which the indexes are set to equal 100 -- in
our price programs.. The new bases have been established,
after review by OMB's Office of Federal Statistical Policy,
to carry out the Government's longstanding policy of
periodically updating index bases. It is important to note
that a change in the reference base has no effect on the
measured rate of inflation. Percent changes calculated on
the new bases will be the same as those calculated on the
old base (except for rounding).
The new reference base periods have been selected to
coincide with the periods to which the index weighting
structure refer. The base for the Consumer Price Index will
be changed from 1967=100 to 1982-84=100, effective with the
release of January 1988 data (on February 26). The new
reference base for the Producer Price Index (to be released
on February 12) will be 1982=100..
These planned changes were announced a year ago in
order to provide time for all index users to adjust to the
new base. We expect, nonetheless, to be quite busy over the
next several months assisting those who need help in
understanding the changes. As in the past, we will make
data available on former bases even after the change has
8
taken place, and will provide historical series on the new
base to those who wish them. In addition, when users, for
example, parties to contracts, request it, BLS will provide
conversion factors to assist them in using the new data.
My colleagues and I will now be happy to answer any
questions you may have.
Unemployment retes of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods
Month Unad- Concurrent and justed Official (as first
year rate p_rocedure comjluted) (1) ( 2) (3)
1987
January ••••• 7.3 6.7 6.7 February •••• 7.2 6.6 6.6 Karch ••••••• 6.9 6.5 6.5 April ••••••• 6.2 6.3 6.3 May ••••••••• 6.1 6.3 6.3 June •••••••• 6.3 6.1 6.1 July •••••••• 6.1 6.0 6.0 August •••••• 5.8 6.0 6.0 September ••• 5.7 5.9 5.9 October ••••• 5.7 6.0 6.0 November •••• 5.6 5.9 5.9 December •••• 5.4 5.8 5.8
1988
January_ ••••• 6.3 5.8 5.8
SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics February 1988
X-II ARIHA method X-ll Ilethod (official
Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (revised)_ before 1980)
(4) ( 5) ( 6) (7) (8)
6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8
5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.8
Range (cols.
2-8) (9)
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1 -
.1
.2
10
(1) Unadjusted rate. Unemployment rate for All civilian workers, not seasonally adjusted.(2) Official procedure (X-I M IA _thod). The published seawonally adjusted rate for11 cililan wo Eaer Ech of the 3 major civilian labor force componente-agricaltur&aemployment, nonagricultural employment and unemployment-for 4 age-see groups-males andfmles, ages 16-19 and 20 years and over-ar seasonally adjusted independently using datafrom January 1974 forard. The data series for each of these 12 components are extended bya year at each *nd of the original series using ARDIA (Auto-Eegresseie, Integrated, MovtigAverage) modela chosen specifically for each eeries. Each extended eeries Is than seasonallyadjusted with the I-ll portion of the X-ll AIM1A progrem. The 4 teenage unewployment andnonagricultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjustment modal,chile the other components are adjusted vith the multiplicativn model. The unemploymentrate Is computed by *smming the 4 seasonally adjusted unm ployment components and calculatingthat total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by *mning a11 12 seasonallyadjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series ar revised at the and of each year.Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; extrapolatedfactors for July-December are computed in the middle of the year after the June data becomeavailable. Each set of
6-_nth factors are published In advance, In the January and Julyissue s respectively, of Employment and Ernings.
(3) Concurrent (as firt coputed. S-ll ARDIA method). The official procedure forco putaton of the rate for all civilan workere using the 12 components tS followedexcept that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component is seasonally adjuetedwith the X-li AMIIA program each month as the meet recent data become available. Rates foreach month of the current year are ehown an first computed; they are rsvised only once eachyear. at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example,the rate for January 1984 would be based, during 1984. on the adjustment of data fronthe period January 1974 through January 1984.
(4) Concurrent (revised. X-ll A A method) The procedure used Is Identical to (3)abov and the rate for the current month (the last onth displayed) will always be thesam In the two coluons. Hove-r, all previous months are subject to revision each monthbased on the seasonal adjusteent of all the components with data through the current month.(5) Stable (X-i ARMlA method). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components is extendedusing ARIMA models as In the official procedure and then run through the X-li partof the program using the stable option. This option a*sumes that seasonal patternsare basically onestant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors aaunweighted averages of all the seasonal-irregular components for each month acrossthe entire span of the period adjusted. A in the officiel procedure, factors areextrapolated in 6-month intervals and the series are revised at the end of each year.The procedure for computation of the rate from the sexsonally adjusted componentsis also identical to the official procedure.
(6) Total (X-ll ARIINA method). This is one alternative aggregation procedure, inwhich total uneoploynent and civilian labor force levels are extended with ARDIA modelsand directly adjusted with multipIlative adjustaent models In the X-ll part of theprogram. The rate Is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as apercent of seasonally adjusted total civilian labor force. Factors are extrapolatedin 6-onth Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.(7) Residual (X-li AMA method). Thisis a nother aeternative aggregation method, inhich total civilian eployent and civilian labor forte levels are extended usig ARIINAnodela and then directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonallyadjusted uneeployment level Is derived by subtractingy easonally adjusted employmentfrom seaeonally adjusted labor force. The rate is then computed by taking the derivedunemploynent level a* a percent of the labor force level. actors ar extrapolated in6-month intervale and the series revised at the end of each year.
(8) X-li ethod (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the officialprocedure is used except that the series are not extended with AM1A models and the factorsare projected in 12-month intervals. The standard X-11 program is naed to perform theeasonal adjustsent.
ethode of Adj tment: The X-ll A1MA method was developed at Statistics Canada by theSeesonal Adhjutent and Times Series Staff under the direction of Eatela Ree Dagu. Themethod is described in The X-11 AR1MA Seasonal Adstent Method by Estela Zee Dague,Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564Z February 1980.
The standard X-11 method is described in X-ll Variant of the Ceneus Method 11 SeasonalAdustment Program, by Julius Shiskin, Allan Young and John Puprave (Tehni erllo 15 ZuBreou ofithe Cen*ea 1967).
N e v A s United States-A* Me\~~~~> Departmrent
of LaborBureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212
Technical information: (202) 523-1371 USDL 88-57
523-1944523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS
Media contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL8:30 A.M. (EST), FRIDAY,FEBRUARY 5, 1988
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 1988
Unemployment was unchanged in January, and the growth in nonfarm
payroll jobs slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department
of Labor reported today. The overall jobless rate was 5.7 percent and the
civilian worker rate was 5.8 percent. Both rates have shown little change
since last summer.
Nonagricultural payroll employment, as measured by the monthly survey
of business establishments, increased marginally in January--by 105,000
while total civilian employment, as measured by the monthly survey of
households, rose more markedly-385,000. Over the past year, employment
levels in the establishment and household surveys have advanced by 2.8 and
3.1 million, respectively.
Unemployment-(Household Survey Data)
Both the number of unemployed persons in January--7.0 million--and the
civilian unemployment rate--5.8 percent--were unchanged from December,
after seasonal adjustment. Jobless rates for adult men and women (each at
5.1 percent), teenagers (16.0 percent), whites (5.0 percent), and blacks
(12.2 percent) also showed little or no change over the month. The
unemployment rate for Hispanics, which tends to fluctuate more than those
of whites and blacks, edged down to 7.2 percent over the month. (See
tables A-2 and A-3.)
The average (mean) duration of unemployment, at 14.4 weeks, was little
changed in January, while median duration was up slightly to 6.4 weeks.
(See table A-7.)
Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total civilian employment rose by 385,000 in January to 114.1 million,
after seasonal adjustment, and the proportion of the population with jobs
Increased two-tenths of a percentage point to a high of 62.1 percent. Over
the past year, civilian employment has increased by 3.1 million.
Hispanics, who make up *about 7 percent of employed persons, accounted for
more than 20 percent of the over-the-year gain. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)
The civilian labor force expanded by 450,000 in January to a
seasonally adjusted level of 121.2 million. The. labor force has grown by
12
2.0 million over the past year, with the labor force participation raterising to a record 65.9 percent in January. (See table A-2.)
Industry Payroll FEmployment (Establishment Survey Data)
Nonagricultural payroll employment edged up by 105,000 in January to aseasonally adjusted level of 103.7 million. In the prior 3 months, themonth-to-month gains had averaged nearly 400,000. (See table B-1.)
Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
Quarterly Monthly dataaverages
Category Dec.-
1987 1987 1988 Jan.change
____ III IV Nov. I Dec. Jan.HOUSEHOLD DATA
Labor force 1/.Total employment 1/..
Civilian labor force,..Civilian employment.Unemployment.
Not in labor force.Discouraged workers..
Unemployment rates:All workers I/.All civilianjworkers.
Adult men.Adult women.Teenagers.........White.............Black..............Hispanic origin....
ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Nonfarm employment.....Goods-producing......Service-producing....
Thousands of persons121,786 122,316 122.349 -122,472 122,924 452114,587 115,235 115,259 115,494 115,878 384120,053 120,568 120,594 120,722 121,175 453112,854 113,486 113,504 113,744 114,129 3857,199 7,082 7,090 6,978 7,046 6862,963 62,899 62,876 62,898 62,647 -251
992 910 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.. I
Percent of labor force
5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.76.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.85.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.15.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
16.1 16.6 16.6 16.1 16.05.1 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0
12.5 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.28.1 8.5 9.0 8.1 7.2
00
0.2_.1_.1.1
0_.9
Thousands of Jobs102,278 p103,288 103,285 p103,596 p103,703 p10724,884 p25,164 25,169 p25,258 p25,219 p-3977,394 p78,124 78,116 p78,338 p78,484 p146
Average weekly hours: Hours of workTotal private ........ 34.8 p34.8 34.9 p34.7 p34.7 P0Manufacturing........ 40.9 p4
1.2 41.2 p41.0 p4l.I pO.1Overtim e . 3...........(.......3.7 P3.9 3.9 o3.9 p3.9 DO
1/ Includes the resident Arm Forces N.A.-not available.p-preliminary.
13
In the service-producing sector, the usually robust services industrygrew-by only 30,000, whereas retail trade showed a large increase of155,000, after seasonal adjustment. The. developments in retail tradereflect the fact that fewer workers than normal lost their jobs in post-holiday cutbacks. Wholesale trade continued to grow in January, adding20,000 jobs. Government employment fell by 65,000, returning to theNovember level. Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate hasshown -little change since October..
Manufacturing exhibited only moderate growth in January, adding 25,000jobs. While durable goods industries related to construction and automanufacturing demonstrated weakness, machinery and electrical equipmentcontinued to -increase. Within nondurable industries, job gains inprinting and publishing and the volatile food. industry were partly offsetby losses in textiles and apparel. Factory job gains had averaged 60,000per month in the second half of last year.: Elsewhere in the goods-producingsector, there was a seasonally adjusted drop of 15,000 in mining, most ofit in oil and gas extraction, while construction employment, which hadshown strength in the October-to-December period, fell 50,000.
Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey'Data)
The average workweek of production or nonsupervisory workers onprivate nonagricultural payrolls was unchanged in January at 34.7 hours,seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek edged up by a tenth of anhour to 41.1 hours, and factory overtime (3.9 hours) remained very high.(See table B-2.)
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisoryworkers on private nonagricultural payrolls rose by 0.2 percent to 122.2(1977-100). seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index, at 95.4, waslittle changed .from December. (See table B-5.)
Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)
Both average hourly and weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent inJanuary, seasonally adjusted. Prior to seasonal adjustment, average hourlyearnings rose by 6 cents to $9.18; average weekly earnings, however, fell$2.50 to $315.79, as a result of a seasonal decline in the workweek. (Seetable. B-3.) -
The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)
The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 176.3 (1977-100) in January,seasonally adjusted, an increase of 0.5 percent from December. For the 12months ended in January, the increase, was 2.9 percent.. In dollars. of
14
constant purchasing power, the HEI decreased 1.8 percent during the 12-month period ending in December. The HEI excludes the effects of two typesof changes unrelated to underlying wage rate movements--fluctuations inmanufacturing overtime and interindustry employment shifts. (See tableB-4.)
The Employment Situation for February 19.88 will be released on Friday,March 4, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).
15
Explanatory Note
This news release presents statistics from two major surveys,the Current Population Survey (household survey) and theCurrent Employment Statistics Survey (establishment survey).The household survey provides the inforsation on the laborforce. total employment, and unemploymnst that appears inthe A tables. marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a samplesurvey of about 59,500 households that is conducted by theBureau of the Census with most of the findings analyzed andpublished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics taLS).
The establishment survey provides the information on theemployment, hours, and earnings of workers onnonagricultural payrolls that appears in the B tables, markedESTABLISHMENT DATA. This information is collectedfrom payroll records by BLs in cooperation with State agencies.The sample includes over 290,000 establishments employingover 38 million people.
For both surveys, the data for a given month are actuallycollected for and relate to a particular week. In the householdsurvey, unless otherwise indicated, it is the calendar week thatcontains the 12th day of the month, which is called the surveyweek. In the establishment survey, the reference week is thepay period including the 12th, which may or may not corres-pond directly to the calendar week.
The data in this release are affected by a number of technicalfactors, including definitions, survey differences, seasonal ad-justments, and the inevitable variance in results between a'survey of a sample and a census of the entire population. Eachof these factors is explained below.
Coveragetsdafinitlons, and dliterencesbetween surveys
The sample households in the household survey are selectedso as to reflect-the entire csvilian noninstitutional population16 yearsof age and older. Each person in a household isclassified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.Those who hold more than one job ire classified according iothe job at which they worked the most hours.-People are classified as employed if they did any work atall
as paid civilians; worked in their own business or profession oron their own farm; or worked 15 hours or more in an enter-prise operated by a member of their family, whether they werepaid or not. People are also counted as employed if they wereon unpaid leave because of illness, bad weather, disputes be-twes labor and management, or personal reasons. Membersof the Armed Forces stationed in the United States are also in-cuded in the employed total.
People are classi'led as anemployed, regardless of theireligibility for uneml !oymenst benefits or public assistance, ifthey meet all of the following criteria: They had no employ-ment during the survey week; they were available for work. at
that time; and they made specific efforts to find employmentsometime during the prior 4 weeks. Persons laid off from theirformer jobs and awaiting recall and those expecting to reportto a job within 30 days need not be looking for work to becounted as unemployed.
The laborforce equals the sum of the number employed andthe number unemployed. The unemployment rte' is thepercentage of unemployed people in the labor force (civilianplus the resident Armed Forces). Table A-5 presents a specialgrouping of seven measures of unemployment based on vary-ing definitions of unemployment and the labor force. The.definitions are provided in the table. The most restrictivedefinition yields U-I and the most comprehensive yields U-7.The overall unemployment rate is U-5a, while U-5b representsthe same measure with a civilian labor force base.
Unlike the household survey, the establishment survey onlycounuts wage and salary employees whose names appear on thepayroll records of nonagricultural firms. As i result, ther aremany differences between the two surveys, among which arethe following:
- TVe ouehold tre. hh-ogh batd em *a teel amPk. r anet itat t of the potes the ebeilhttmet oaeee -ectde aetkotoe,the .1f-eptyed, oopaid f-tily Okr. pri-et hoooehld woekbe, dotemhm of the eide.t Aneed Foecet;
- The hoethtod tuerey oodet peopte on oup.Wd kte. won theepbtyd; the t-.btithtote srtory does nut;
T The hoteh.td reney t- heated to tho 16 yeas of cue ta odmr: theeabtitht et.o-rey i -nao mited by ser- The hoheld 0ev hat on dtpticion of tdnidoa. bee- eh io-
divdoid, s nosted onty rawe In the ebltiet eny, eeloem woe, oa ttmare tho 0 job or othteit oppenina on mote tht one piyton wmd bemoted enty honrit appr eott.
Other differences between the two surveys are described in"Comparing Employment Estimates from Household andPayroll Surveys," which may be obtained from the taS uponrequest.
Seasonal adjustmentOver the course of a year, the size of the Nation's labor
force and the levels of employment and unemploymentundergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events aschanges in weather, reduced or expanded production, har-vets, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools.For example, the labor force increases by a large number eachJune, when schools close and many young people enter the jobmarket. The effect of such seasonal variation can be verylarge; over the course of a year, for example, seasonality mayaccount for as much as 95 percent of the month-to-monthchanges in unemployment.
16
Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regularpattern each year, their influence on statistical trends can beeliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month.Thew adjustments make nonseasonal developments, such asdeclines in economic activity or increases in the participationof women in the labor force, easier to spot. To return to theschool's-out example, the large number of people entering thelabor force each June is likely to obscure any other changesthat have taken place since May, making it difficult to deter-mine if the level of economic activity has risen or declined.However, because the effect of students finishing school inprevious years is known, the statistics for the current year canbe adjusted to allow for a comparable change. Insofar as theseasonal adjustment is made correctly, the adjusted figure pro-vides a more useful tool with which to analyze changes ineconomic activity.
Measures of labor force, employment, and unemploymentcontain components such as age and sex. Statistics for allemployees, production workers, average weekly hours, andaverage hourly earnings include components based on theemployer's industry. All these statistics can be seasonally ad-justed either by adjusting the total or by adjusting each of thecomponents and combining them. The second procedureusually yields more accurate information and is thereforefollowed by sLs. For example, the seasonally adjusted figurefor the labor force is the sum of eight seasonally adjustedcivilian employment components, plus the resident ArmedForces total (not adjusted for seasonality), and four seasonallyadjusted unemployment components; the total for unemploy-ment is the sum of the four unemployment components; andthe overall unemployment rate is derived by dividing theresulting estimate of total unemployment by the estimate ofthe labor force.
The numerical factors used to make the seasonal ad-justments are recalculated regularly. For the householdsurvey, the factors are calculated for the January-June periodand again for the July-December period. The January revisionis applied to data that have been published over the previous 5years. For the establishment survey, updated factors forseasonal adjustment are calculated only once a year, alongwith the introduction of new benchmarks which are discussedat the end of the next section.
Sampling varlabllltyStatistics based on the household and establishment surveys
are subject to sampling error, that is, the estimate of thenumber of people employed and the other estimates drawnfrom these surveys probably differ from the figures that wouldbe obtained from-a complete census, even if the same question-naires and procedures were used. In the household survey, theamount of the differences can be expressed in terms of stand-ard errors. The numerical value of a standard error dependsupon the size of the sample, the results of the survey, and otherfactors. However, the numerical value is always such that thechances are approximately 68 out of tOO that an estimate basedon the sample will differ by no more than the standard error
from the results of a complete census. The chances are approx-imately 90 out of 100 that an estimate based on the sample willdiffer by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from theresults of a complete census. At approximately the 90-percentlevel of confidence-the confidence limits used by aLS in itsanalyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ-ment is on the order of plus or minus 328,000; for totalunemployment it is 220,000; and, for the overall unemploy-ment rate, it is 0.19 percentage point. These figures do notmean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes but,rather, that the chances are approximately 90 out of 100 thatthe "true" level or rate would not be expected to differ fromthe estimates by more than these amounts.
Sampling errors for monthly surveys are reduced when thedata are cumulated for several months, such as quarterly orannually. Also, as a general rule, the smaller the estimate, thelarger the sampling error. Therefore, relatively speaking, theestimate of the size of the labor force is subject to less errorthan is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, amongthe unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rate ofadult men, for example, is much smaller than is the error forthe jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthlychange in the jobless rate for men is .26 percentage point; forteenagers, it is 1.25 percentage points.
In the establishment survey, estimates for the 2 most currentmonths are based on incomplete returns; for this reason, theseestimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all thereturns in the sample have been received, the estimates arerevised. In other words, data for the month of September arepublished in preliminary form in October and November andin final form in December. To remove errors that build upover time, a comprehensive count of the employed is con-ducted each year. The results of this survey are used toestablish new benchmarks-comprehensive counts ofemployment-against which month-to-month changes can bemeasured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changes inthe classification of industries and allow for the formation ofnew establishments.
Additional atistics and other InformationIn order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employ-
ment situation, BLS regularly publishes a wide variety of datain this news release. More comprehensive statistics are contain-ed in Employment and Earnings, published each month byaLS. It is available for$8.50per issue orS22.00per year fromthe U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,20204. A check or money order made out to the Superinten-dent of Documents must accompany all orders.
Employment and Earnings also provides approximations ofthe standard errors for the household survey data published inthis release. For unemployment and other labor forcecategories, the standard errors appear in tables B through J ofits "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reliability of thedata drawn from the establishment survey and the actualamounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments are pro-vided in tables M, 0, P, and Q of that publication.
17
HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA
TOM A-1 E6pb_ . 88 M8. P.6IMW. ,f peAhh9,d Fe b 0,* IMd S08. by -
NM 8n 8 Snd8o9 84k 8
JD.6; C- J- S 001. Oc N. 0.0. J-,
_167 I967Im Ise?7 188 1907 1987 1967 19O9
TOTAL :
Wei 8 d 183.15s118 185.571 183.575 184.904 1 185.052 185.225 185.370.165,5719.9d8, 98,8-.=' ___________~~..~ 1198451 12%0156 121.1 120.728 121.70 12j21 122.348 122.472 ! 122.24
P868048061d18 .. 60 1 65.9 85.0 60.9 1465.8 66.0 66.1 I 66.1 I 662TMe ..lod' 110.a22 5O.42 136 7621615 114901S I 11.55 !115.494 1150.76
E _.WM.VV6h4 88 80.4 62.3 61.4 61.4 620 62.1 62.2 823 84P.~6w A-m84 Ps. 1,749 1.750 1.748 1.749 11.743 1.741 1.705 1706 1.749
F4 hm1861166, __4 o 166.064 113.676 112.139 111.014 112.872 113.210 '13504 i13.744 I 114129A962j5,8 2.705 2.974 2.789 ~~~~~~ ~~~~~3.174 3.164 2.249 3,172 3.215 3.39
, ,9~8.*89I 64449.= - - 106.3709 110.s s2106.550 107.84 109.669 e o9.96 11O0 3M2 = 110.29 , 10 AN 36_ 6 -20 6.26 7C03 7.964 7.91 7.177 7S0 5.97 7sa
7.2 5.4 6.3 8.6 5.8 5. s 5 0.7 5 .7NM i W. 84.124 6414 e4.079 ezu4s 63.106 0924 e2e978 62Q 62s e4
kum s n_ wn
N9 _ _ _ __._ pwdabfl 86.20 86124 6923 99.020 8.6A36 Ie6756 ee.849 MAN 024 33LFnbi6' _ _ = _ 66.9as 67.065 67.410 j 67.102. 67.776 67.i47 6a.919 681204 68.243
P86l06 808 181' 76,0 76.0 375.7 769 376.4 78.5 76.6 7. 76.6To _..;.. .-...... . -..... .... . 61.828 632.S4 62.046 3 .153 ! e.j49 64.048 84.174 84.2465 64.396
Ellisll.l-0-.P86,4800.0... .......... .......... 70.2 71.9 70.9 71.7! 72.1 72.2 72.2 72.2 72.36.68.,. A.od PF u .- 1.091 1.589 1.588 1.591 1,581 1.090 1.093 I .59 1.56CF4A - ............. .. 60237 62.265 61450 61 62 62.366 e62.498 62.561 62.s6 62.06
d _ _ ............. ... ... .0. .... 2 71S 1 4364 4449 3.27 3e60 3.845 378S 3847Uofl 876 5_ 6.5 6.6 i .56 5.7 5.7 .6 .6
r.Wr 0m456 4-- ----- ,---5 86 86446 s94538 90955e 96221 96.280 956.373 98446 WM9L~b buo. __________.____ 2.7 54191 54.052 03.124 I 3.630 54.181 04.330 84.462 54.601
PF nW : - 52.0 56.4 06.0 55.6! 56.0 06.3 S6S4 55.4 56.6Tow 8188,4'- . ...e.48.00 51.975 50.842 48.609 1 0616 06.803 51.065 811.49 51.462
FEA~6IO5.,l~l9.O8~O 189' 0w s 1.3 521 52.7 119 SZ7 52.9 532.0 53.1 533P-.84 6A.W P,88 ____ 107 161 161 157 162 161 162 161 l61
8 Si . __ 48s .414 S0.80 49 Z45 2 | .0.54 so7 51.0S2 s1.321-. ---- 1 - ------- 35. s 2.e 3239 3.510 3S45 93 e200
9k161a1,s89 668' _____ _ _ _.. - _~~~ 8.8 0.2 6.01 6.81f V1 61 6o 5.9 5s
' Th. bon- d A.W Fo fig.. ra a.W_ 9gr unol Id- br of V. _w_ 1 l- w-
1. s 481.1 4 a1.4 ia- 88 86 h 9. u .4=ol _ 9 of08 kI O. te -
d 161 .of- 4n F s d V. d.1 A7 F ow # 8 h 1 f1 W bOSu ..
18
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Tabe A-2 E rant U5 f the dutf pois by - W a
(Numbers r t-.dn.l
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Nut -._ y -d Sa-e ty d ted
Ja-r987
TOTAL
C n nwA a pu .a ...............e..................... . _. .... 1.827Clnnubr lube . I 1.7.703
pstntorpa- Itn .....................------.------------------------ b4.7Errrpioyed ....... ... 109,084*Enrepeeatvon~as tat,_ . ., . -0.0UEsrrly.d.80 . . .... ..... 00U-rIrrlyt rate .............. ,.. 7.3
Meet, 20 yas ad uece
C o wrtrsibuwl pupulaoflu . .78,132Clula late, fIrn 8............... : . ..... 61,58'
Partndptis tt .t.e .. . 778.FErpinyad . ....... : ..,.57,290..Enwtsabnvrepuunt reds'. . .+ !72.4 1
Agnonulb. . 5 2,044AN taclbal l . 524.
U.d. . ....... .... 4.27.Unerrrplutrrreet rae . . . 7.0
WCe-r 20 yIcee md oWrOnli n laWe"4bo c.48,988Cn k Iolor .rS .......... ................................. a. bePrldw bon rR . .......................................................
5 .
Elryd ........................ , 45,970En rrnpsdoprt nao' ...s................ ...... 52.1An.....................................................
.... ....... ' n
N O .lltr ..... ...................., .i 458450U " .ed ............ .. ' 2,8 4
ur n rq nlm t .......................... ........ ... 8..
Om MM iamer lts 19 r are
Cl ior. psO .a O s ........................... 14,545Cu labs, Iow .... . ..... 71.......... j149P ..~ onn ............................... ... ' 49: 2
E, d .................. . : 5.823Enrpisretr~ppuats tbO s' 4 0
Avl 1.......... .............. 410'N A ...o. i 8.. . ........................ 542U ,. . . ..d ........................ 132'8
Un p t . ............. . i la'
D.n Jan Jan Sept Out Sue D.n. Jan1987 1998 tOO? t987 t997 1s87 tO87 I9NS
183,020 j183.822 ta t 87 183 te 18 a 311182,470 183.820 t83.822120.208 1 19,742 t 18:78 t199I 3 I 1I:.387 12.894 120722 t241170
85.9 e8.1 80. 85.5 82.7 80'.7 65.7 65.113,879111212 0. It I t 872 113,210 113S,04 113.74e 114.12981.9 8.0 81.1 e1.8 8.8 61.9 81.9 62.rs.526 7.803 7.984 701. I 7,177 7090 8.979 7.04654 0.3 8.7 5.9 6.0 5o 9 0.9 o.u
80.002 80,120 79,132 79.740 79,807 79.885 80.002 80.12082,078 82,031 81,811 2.062 5 82.211 8229 823 82.440n.e j 77.4 ! 78.2 77 . i7.9 7. i 7. 77.8 77.95s 9 .0 5 5 I s e 3 s 7 , Y 2 2 0 Y 759,94 7 0 3 7 5 ,186 4 5 09 1 8 0 9 ,2 0 71 73.9 72.8 . 73.8 73. 8 74.0 7. 74.0 74.0121 2.077 2,287 2,345 2,343 2297 2.8 2323. .914 09.20 5s.933 00 ,22 0084 0097 59,97 00943,040 3.074 3.691 3,118 3,174 3,135s 3.063 3,1544.9 5.9! 6.0 5 .0 5.1 s.o 4.9 . 51
8 9,010 89,110 as9.100 99705 99.843 9 s9s221 89,010I 89,11000.492 500317 49.187 49,922 500.095 5 5.254 0,0 5,1 50,55597 59.0 08.8 59.2 59.4 i 59.5! 59. 005.748.148 47,633 48.200 47,251 47,490 I 47034 47755 47.877
84,1 53.5 52.5 53.2 53.4 53.8 53.8 53.5798 539s 6825, 60 636 828 83 04.99, 47.084 45,65 4 .4 ' 48,908 47,107 47,33
2, 340 2,6s4 2,977 2.1 2,815 20 2 ,6t 2.594.6 * .. 0.9 054 5.2 I 5.2 5.2 8.1
4e o j 9 2 14.592 64s 5 14.e 637 14, 614 149 3 14 809 14 s 597.e s 7.6 39 i 73 94 . 7 e 7.8 15 8. 09 1 8041 9113 8,17753.3 50.7 84.3 54.4 55.1 4.8 ! 50. 00.0e ,4 9 e -s o | e .508 4 8. 85 4 6 6 .7 0 9 1 6 .0 9 58 0544.8 42,1 i 47.7 45.5 45.7 4517 48.8 47.017 173: 282 29 270 229: 274 3226.322 077 I 8,242 I 6,410 84 847 I.53 8.5s 21.141 1 .244 1396 1,32 I 138 35 1304 312149. 18.6 1717 I64 17.2 ! i189 i&t tao
the psptislte 81m we t at be ed wta, ev a a aoe S SM uis ss aa1Md etd klt-r
19
HOUSEHOLD DATA
T*9. A l a d c u b. n by q., *. H. 8 14 9
HOUSEHOLD DATA
NM .81Iy dXMW S...o.y "Wd'
_bh ! ,,,, I* I " I 00 , , J- S ot L N D.*_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 7 I 1 7 1 988 1987 1887 18987 8987 1887 1988
! I
-985 _____
-.,M. -* -____
U8d
O Uf .b _.
N b 8.8o.t 48.9
,20 Y-6 Sld
- ~ _
Ed __ _____,____U 081 1ft8
EPr .ll___..____ 9._.______
ULMow.A M.Ur dAy_ 'tf
ON bvb~ I_____
E~~~~~~~~~~- .... _,,_k,
M. _8_ __
w~l 8794. . ........
BLACK
6 ____
,' Ubyd '~
RUN 20 Yd WfOff Ib. kI. __ _ _ _ _
PU, _. __ _ _. __ __ __ .
154313
65.0
els5.5
78.32
50.478733
3.4136.3
41,53555.0
35.331
t22U5.3
Sd48.237
524
42.99088
18.218.413.8
157=55103.44:82.!
88.831862.
4.80.4.9
54.18W78.4
* 51.07r74.9
42.854564(
41.88.53.4
1.853.'
552
sos12.!II.,10.4
1 157.676 !156.313; 103.120 ! Io36.8
63.4 I 86.7S 8731 !89.749. 51.7 61.9
2 5.8 5.92DI 5.8 5.8
, 54.135 54,114, 7*7.8 78.8I 51.220 51.29
B 73.8 74.52,914 2.818
9 5.41 5.2
II
II
I
IIII
II
157.24203 .357
65.798.068
82.4528e
5.1
54.21378.2
51.8B02374.7
t..41
21S9
4.4
40.4053.2
.1.888
57.25857
49.0
143
13.4
42.54555.8
40.61053.3
1.8354.5
8.44154.2
5.48146196014.8
13.4
41.87785.2
39,613.52.42.054
5.0
8.87857.8
5.94049.1I.038
15.116.194.5
i57342 157.448 I57.552 157.876153,868 103.731 103.907 104252
55. 6s.9 98.0 66.198.317 98.452 se.77s 99 044
62.5 62.6. 837l 82.85352 5238 j .128 5.208
5.2' 5* 4 . 50
54.375 5431 54.36i 54.45578.4 78.3 78 MS
51.04 i 51.98 525 4 2.0374.8 74.9 74.9 I 74.
2.511 2,412 2.2 2 t424.8 4.4 43 4.4
42.379 42.464 ! 425s 42.710053- 55.8 I 55.8 56.1
40 1 40.60 I 40,712 40.886533 53.4 53.5 53.7
1.941 1.858 157 1.81343 4.4 4 4.2
6.915 6AN6 8 I 7.0857.9 57.7 se.8 ss.6
5.915 5.817 8.021 6.09549.5 49.6 s8.8 51.21.Ormo 96r. 1 949 98314.5 14.1 13.8 14.515.1 54.8 16.9 14.13. 933 12.3 13.6
20.453 20.482 20.00o 20.53913.152 13.193 13.215 13.
4.3 54.4 84.4 4.411.558 1I.589 11 s I lloe
58.5 58.8 56.8 5451586 1.04 1 9.10 I .1.81412.1 12.2 2.32 12.2
8,023 6.045I 6.043 a.115743 1 745 743 75.0
5.431 5.430 5A430 5489797.0 . 6. 86.8 87.5552 615 el3 el89.9 10.2 . 15.1 10.1
.177 M207 6.224 624488.7 60.9 .61. 89 .1
5.495 5.537 5.544 5.5554.0 54.3 54.3 .54.39S2 670 8Om 6841ItO 10.8 10.9 11.1
20_,17 200812_A.5 13.127
8 2.2 84.010.808 11.831
53.5 58.7I.749 .49893.9 11.4
73.9 74.15.167 5,430
_ 4.8 1 ese.I
I"I 9.9
20.S5 20.187 20.42612.967 1380 13.o5
83.1 63.4 83.11,417 10.905 9.421
s5.8 54.5 55.9s.550 1.82 1.9075.o 94.1 92.3
.029 S.5S 6.03274.0 4.9 74.5
s395 52611 5.42172,2 ! 65J 67.
.631 727 67o0.s . 12.l 1 i..1
! .le8 5.9e9 6.08790.6 58.4 58.7
5.538 5217. 535754.1 59.9 52790s 752 71090.7 12.6 1.7
W M 2D1 V , oW ' .Irn89 la. - .1- _.3 i 2141
58.90 61.2
'E_ __ --- --_ ~~~~~~~~~~~S. 55.1 slLk. O" 5 .___ i, %sj
U_ xb_ _.____ .__.____ 7. 9:.. 9.9
8.8,.,.. 195 hor 'rn V _ l8 _.08- 734 888
_bPD ,...-.. 342 38.8EMbd_____._._ .447 575
E.Qk8olWMP'P 1' ._ 20.8 28.5
L~~~w4~ ..- 6 _ - -. 35.9 3329__99.9 47 .......... .........._...... 3s32M. _ _ ___ ............ ... ___ ........ 3_.9 _ 5.__1.
749 8S0 038 852 .941 O4 86334.5 39.6 42.8 43.8 43.3 437 38.8492 517 843 630 SU 39 5812.7 24. 2t8 2S0 25. 281 2s8257 333 285 322 319 317 302
34* 39.2 308e 338 33 9 334 35.03.2 3.5 315 325 323 33.5 35933.5 42.3 300 35.2 358 334 3-.
S09998w85I99 Of ".9 .
20
HOUSEHOLD DATA
TW49, A-3, E.mWVo.t 01 f9. 0M. pon by n6, a, a , W nd946 H9g-.4end
1N80b9- i. 0
HOUSEHOLD DATA
840 S.-.My4850 88985709488
E.VWVyM Uo00.80w 0.9. .881 ---- iI._ b, J.n. D. J.n. J.. S0. 09, .I | D.. J.n.
19., 7 19I7 1969 19 87 198 897 1997 1 1987 I9SM
HISPANIC ORIGIN
M. rb. I. . q90.... n 129............................................. 11 12 53 12 95 13 03 13043 13 2 13115Co18on bbor Rce .. ...... . .. __ _ _ _ 9.... 310 9e985 68759 6.397 8.561 8.854 S.763 8.772 8.879
P._,I ..... - 8a .......... . _ _ ..........__ .... 65.7 a.4 96.8 86.3 662 86.9 67.2 87.1 67.7Eld ........ ............................n
88l... 7.357 8.002 6.040 7.533 7.877 7,935 7,978 6.056 6.239
En51I 9 l. 4 l0 8 ...................0.. .... 1 61.2 .3 59.5 80.8 61.0 61.2 81.6 62.9UndpZZ 952 664 716 954 704 719 785 714 642
U1800n4958999 91... _ ___ _ _11.5 7.9 6.2 10.2 9.2 931 9 .0. 9. 1 7.2
Th. pW94199 f991.80 - 9 .48 910 -9898918 884859.. p988O9.d,.8 d88 9 1 h V. _8 nd _b89 NOTE: 09 l, 9M1 a9 8 -9 H Wr SVW 0 -tnol
8494184 90&71988 19 - 9198 _09498 998 Ihn 08 998 ".Y 59 819 - 588188dCb . yM p868 ol 899 d1n 91 th*dW9 8o1A.i50199.1 .8 fbilo - bdd1 both M. M.4*9 po."O.4l Woup9 .
(In 99.905
Nol----8y -W - B d
C-t- J. D .. J.n. SW. Cm No. Dc.. J...1971 19087 199 1967 1997 1997 1987 1997 1999
CH4ARACTERIETIC
nKS. -PWI,4 16 9y ua -4 -4 ------------------------ - .. -10904 113 679 112.139 111.014 112.872 113210 113.594 113.744 114.102M.-W 1 1 8 m-t.91 39921 40.707 40.:0 40,047 40.404 40.92 40.645 40.711 40.4548981184018889 p 5189.......................... 27,475 09.614 29.195 27. 7 1 3 239099 5D9.09 29.175 2.249 28D.44Wann 90 n _8 h 98119 ..689 ......... . 591 6239 6.174 .e 6.151 8.178 6XI237 6237 6.16e
MAJOR 9lDU698Y AND CLASS OF WORKER
W nd4 .. Y 8-k _._.. ,03......3.................... _. 1............... 1,403 13 1,3 124 1,705 1.59 1.599 1,6S0 f W 0 k- 0 ............... ............................ 1.271 1.350 1,325 1.392 1.415 1.430 1.407 1.490 1,494Unp8d f* 8 .6.......................................... 99 121 W 5 143 139 140 155 856 13
W9.p d.9 n .8 ........ .. . . . . 9_.100 103.23 101.095 99.557 lo0292 101.5U2 lo.943 101.997 802,957G v .......................................... 16.510 87.20 17.214 18,492 16.926 17.033 17,198 17.084 17.897
P589181.6n .5.....0....... ............... 8,4 . ............... 380..... 851 533 .851 83.0e5 e4 34 e4.469 e4.825 a4 85e310Ph881 h..9669 ._. ................... ....- 1.180 1.135 1.071 18245 1.100 1.222 1296 1209 1.147Ott W W . .. .......................................... 80431 83.698 62.780 20 63,254 63,297 63,539 83.733 4. 163.. 85 3.......................................... 8,045 e317 6,080 8,139 6.2D4 9.274 9,222 8.280 8.150
u W* b . ...... .. . ....... .... 233 249 226 245 297 242 235 248 237
PERSONS AT WORK PART TIME'
Al9 0 k.0Pn . . . ......................................... . 5. 539 5.189 5,394 5.5e8 529 5353 5.534 3262 .. 387
9 ............... .... 2.770 2,27 2.683 2.407 2,213 2:3771 2409 2.294 , .396Cu0oid 8 50998 . ............. ...... 2.479 2.517 2.405 2721 2693 2.655 L2.69 263s 2.640
VOc n n ............. .. _ ... _ 14,453 15.698 14.698 14.847 1445 14.415 M 14,523 14.711 14.571
P. -888 r . .............. .... ...... 5.26 4.980 5.891 5,281 4,696 5,997 5,241 5.004 5.145s10 * ......................................... 2.557 2133 2527 2 27V9 2.034 2.199 22.9 2.181 .22508c8d 8 , ...............................8.8....8 2.425 2.462 | 2,393 2.631 2.803 2.557 2.597 2.5s2 2.544
5911p815 n _ .. 84060 15.2301 14.491 83.706 13.967 14.011 14,064 84.222 14.096
EaFe l p- 'WM, * sb NA M WP-W b Id. ,_ " h w -Um 114
21
HOUSEH405D DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA
o-trd .00. .0.84g.5
IV I I III TV No. 5. J-n
d.IW Wm t __ __ _ __ ._ . ... . '......... 1.8 5. IS 1.7 I6 1.5 1.5 1.5 14
U-2J - d tSl kb.0... .f00-.1.Ol~00 .___.__.__ .__ ......... . 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6
U-3 U-wbno p... 25 801.0.080-8.808008000000508500-
L1.4 kk5089*b0,4" Po-% d 00.85800008.k0M0 01. 500b080
U.S. TOW .. 10.d I I.p.0.8I0d . 108.0.00.0, 4 9 th.004d.444A.080800
U.48 T058 .0mpI. f th0880. 080.0.05001.0
T"8700 Si- pl. .8. k- 05 1/2 p.1-IJo.Mj-05 pi.112100800-1100W. W 8701..0000- 0 . .WMoV1. ~,.4 W10810580010812 0851.90.-41W.050080
U-7 TomI %&i..8 .08oPk. 1/2 P.1-t. Ob..Pk.. 1/2108088 -P.1 6-o. 5800818.0001.Om 6*,.50
001805 d000080808.M1lb f- p1.08.Sod.00950.010.112 04th. P.14r. M.580 b-...-..-.
5.4 5.1
6.8 6.6
.5.2 9.0
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
5.9 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
8.2 5:5 5.5 5. 5.7 S 5.
8.3 8.0 5.5 5.9 1 5.8 5.8
8.5 8.2 8.1 8.2 I 8.0 8.5
9.3 80 85 NA. NA. NA.10.2 I -
NA. - M1. 0.tM
CHARACTERISTIC-S 0 5. O 5 .1
o ~ 8 5 ~ 5
7T ta o 0 . 6 . .9 0 0 0 .. I 7 58 88 8 7.0 46 6 7 5 5 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.5M -.. 1 6 , 0 0 8 00- d_ _ _ _ _ 4 4. 5 378 3.847 ' 6 7 58 5. 5.8 5.7 5 .8MM 20.35 00 0. 80 . __-_ _ 3851 3.053 3.1 4 . 50 . 5.0 4.9 5.101 0. .1 8 0 , 0 . o 0 . 0 8 0 .3 5 15 1 3.1 53 I.0 : 5 8 6 1 5. . .
W ~ o. O20 5 0 0 4 0 .l . 2.77 2.611 2.501 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.20 5.2 .5808d, .00 1&W 115781.8 ............ ... 1.306 1.304 1.312, 17.7 I6.4 17.2 18 .8 16.1 18.0
M -0.0.8 081 9 C 008 *0.- 1.785 144 1.495 4.2 37 3.7 3.5 3.4, 3 888- 1, 8.1 0. W - 80 005 1.371 1.275 1.239 4.7 4. . 4.2 4 3 42
W8o . .8 o 0 0 l E 81 o 545 Su 8 805 5.8 8. 9. 8.5 8 4 8.5
* . F i- 1 0 o~~~ o o .5 .o _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 8~~~6 4 7 3 5 8 501 5 .80 3 8.3 5 .5 5. 5 a 5 .4 5 .4P0.13-6- - 6 -1 . 1,510 5.35 1.464 8. . : 83 82 . .L ~b 8 5 0 0 0 0 6 0e _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 7.6 .8. . .8 68. 8.6 6 .6
-7USR
N 7049000 04 0580 045 .8 .04 y .o w5 59 59 5.0 8 5 .2 91 6.7 5.5 5.5 5 .8 5.7G O 0O S..doomgV 60,0.W 0 - - -- . - -. - - 2.35 1840 . 2.034 8.3 7.0 7.0 5.5 6.4
h10~~~~19
...... ~~~~~~ ~ ~ 134 7 1 83 14 .1 7.4 5.3 7.0 8.0......... ~~~787 883 782 12.5 11.9 . 11.2 15.8 10.8
.. . . ....... 1 .4 87 1 .1 0 8 1. 0 5 8. 5 .8 5 7 5. 5 1W IM A 5 0.8 a-. . .. . . .. . 5 80 8 704 6. i . 5.2 A. .NWW 0 588ft 578 50 . 55 6.7 5. 9 5.5 5.5 5.6
S0 n 8 o &o l l.b5. _' _ 3.5141 3.25 3.257 00 5 3 5.4 5.1 53T o opolO.o 0. pub Leao . . ~ 292 25 231 .7 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6w t. 5 0 0 .00. 0 5 4 0 8 _ _ __lo w_ _ _ _ _ .. .7 5 1.42 3 I. 1. 25 7 4 . 6 6 8 8 .2
l i w o . 0 . 0 ~ 5 .0 8 ~ ......~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 .8 1 0 I s 5 4 1 .5 8 5 . 4 . . 4 4. 0 .G O.. l0 . 5 .Ws-~ ~ - __ _ 0 565 25n 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.AW-0*0.W -p 0. W " - k _ _.0.~. ___ _ __ _ 210 156 217 11.A 8.6 10.6 II.I I0.9
5807.7.12.5.65.5.0
5.3I
3 0I1.-5
U-08lN-040000 P098.60IIIV.4- 00b. 8508.489g 88.10h - 000 DY W. 1.0 .90, 8d 08 0.P 0 1. - p I W .0085
0601-*1800000 000000 ofI00180b004580150100h0
22
HOUSEHOLD DATA
TWtO A.?. D-oal of -poyMWM
(N t k th- WlloId~l
HOUSEHOLD DATA
MM em _1Y Ad3.90 SeeoeOy adjud
W ee f ..eOlywOmJon. Dec.1987 1987
J.n Jan Septe Oct Nov. O.c. Jan198 1997 1987 i1987 1987 1987 1988
-
DURATION
L4 Onc .w eeks. .................................................. 3,.93 2.871S n 14 oks.2. . .................................................... 2. 1.18 w o v ................................................... 2.288 1.815 10 28 wk.1.........................................................13
27 W ..d o.1,13 91.................................. ........ 113 851
A n (m n) d ,, w .e.......................14.4 14.M oe nt d snflno , o w ee.8. ' 8
PERCENT DISTRIUTION
Tol p y.d 1. 1.0............................................" O 1 10L thlo 5 wk.0.................................................. 4.8 44.0
tol14 W k . ................................................. 30.8 30.51 d oa ......................................... 2.5 .25.5
15 to 26 8we ........... .._.__. ....... ItS27 latkheds oe ............. .................................. 13.7 13.0
3,395 3.385; 3.2202.397 2,489 1,9491.611 2,187 1,904
904 1,o3 817907 1.164 987
13.8 15.0 14.28.2 7.0 8.8
198.0 100.0 198.044.0 41.8 45.831.5 31.0 27.823.8 27.2 25.911.9 I?7 13.011.9 14.9 14.0
3223. 3,218 3,229 3,0892.093 I 2029 1.809 2.2831.801 1.834 1.791 1,733
844 8891 892 839957 935 g89 894
14.1 14.0 14.2 14.48.2 6,1 8.0 84
100.0 100.0 100.0 1 198045.3 45.4 46.2 43.8294 2.7 29.2 31925.3 25.9 255 24 511:9 I i7 liS 11.813.4 13.2 12.9 1 12.0
Ta A-a. R a Ie r e w n
(Sumb or n t hl osnssf)
Not _ IIAd 8e1_My dAidRed
J.n. D c J-' .I n. Sep. O eL : Nv..i D. Jo,1987 1967 1 8I 1987 .1907 1987 .187 1897 189I
MUSMER OF UNEMPLOYED
JobtI.. ........ 8 3........................................... 20 3,770 3,971 3.313 3,388 3,307 3.200 .3.209
job' .......... 1.72.......................................... 311 2O 2 1 07 80 248728 835 2 80Job I ......... 3,12 j 2.297 ,2.498. 2.8s4 2.403 2,444 2.4.9 . 2.3.44 2.320
Rok eeo . . . . . 881 1. 133 go ga81 g080, 28 , 944 1,082.............................. ....... - .-.. . 2.0 87 ,7 j 1.8940 2059' 190 8 1845 I.g7 1,945 917l d o w ell~~~~~~~~~~~~~o n l o 8 1 8 i , ,~~~~~~~~~~; 5 9 1 4 1 .8 4 1 .4 1 , 7....n........ Ole 9 727 5 ! 1 u04 8 882 914 6 89 885
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
T Otal iD 0. 1 0D.01 198 0 198.0 198.0 j 18.0 100.0 1 00.0 138.0 1 00.0J ot losers 84.1! 48.1 460 1 48.7........ ..... I54 4 6 8 47.7 4 0.8 45.7 45.2OM yo . .. 10 I3t9 67 . I. 13. 110 13.3 124 12.2 5
JObr ... ......... . 3..1 35.2 .9 !.38.. 35.2 , 3 4. 4 3 4. 4 33.5 32.7Job lasoere ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~........ 11.01 13. 14.8 11.4 13.8 13.5 13.1 13.5 15.3seo o;l.2 4. 2 28.6 25. 5 25 25.8 20. 8 . 39.0 28.0 27.0 2. 01 w ....... 0.7....100 ,1 tS .9 21 1...................................... ....... I. 1 j 90 2 : 270 12 .5
UNEMPLOYED AS A PERCENT OF THE iCIVIIAN LABOR FORCE
Job 10. ..0 39 2,7 3.2 3,3 t8 2.2 8 2,7 2.7 t8. . .8 8 8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .. ' 9
R eN o o o1.6 1.4 1. 1 :7 1.6 . . . .N e w e o fr o o t a .. U~~~~~~~~~~... .. ... .. ... . .8 .6 .9 .7 .9 7 .9 7
23
HOUSEHOLD DATA
T.09 £4 US.05900 P0 61000g05 0 . N~ *.Id00
HOUSEHOLD DATA
S.. W MP ~ ~~~~~085..8J- D - J- Sp. 0550t N- D-5 J-
1.8 107 .5im 1507 16 97 18 g? I
Tosaj lo Y..s c- .o... ..................... ......... 7.90A 0097 7,040 07 5.9 00 5. 58 585090.24 y-0...-- ... .. 3,020 .4 05 10 1. 9 1. "112 1I.8509019540... ... ....... .30 134 1.312 177 10. 717. 50.0 1.1 100
1090 17500............. - _5__ - 70 013 ,03 59109 50.3 25.4 59.2 5 7. 10.7is99059505 - 738 GM0 8an 50.2 5.2 54.7 54. 54.7 14.5
2510 24505 --,.I 5 .243 1.347 50.7 9.4 8.8 8.9 0.5 9.525s ss .548.5 o-.. 40042 4.412 4.39 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5
259to54905 Y_____ .. 4.478 3.93 3.00 5.5 4.8 4.0 4.7 A . 4.755 Y~ &N ........ ... 491 400 527 3.3 3.3. 3.1 3.4 3.2 35
WI.4, 50 50o M4 4.449 3.70 3.947 0.7 5.0 5.9 5.8 S., 5.1090o24 y-. - .623 1.370 1.450 53.4 52.1 12.5 I2. 51.7 152.2
1090 19501 . 750 722 09 IS.5 17.3 57. 572 57.32 IS5090 S7 y- ... 368 347 340 25.5 1. 259 25.4 19. 194109 I0m 404 3 27 388 17.1 55.8 14.0 14.8 15.3 54.
20~~~~~~~~~ to. 805 05 " 73 15.5 9.3 0.2 9.2 I8.7 9.925 0000558m ....... .... 2.9'24 2.390 2.3953 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
25 . 54 Yo..... ... . ...J... . . .......... 2.520 Z.152 2.070 506 4.7 48 4.0 4.0 4.5555 0wI5 ...5 ~... . ........ 221 2812 351 -3.7 3.2 3.5 3.5 I 3.2 4.0
W05590.1lo 5 Y 04805... .0 3.515 3.583 3.2 S.' I0 0. 6. 0.5 5.9 5.91509024 V- - - ....... l..5.45 1.505 5.203 52.7 155 :1. I5I2 157 50.9
1890. 1950440 ............... .......... ….. 03 5812 619 50. 15.4 50.9 50.0 14cs 55I . -17.. I- '5~~~~~~17.5090 57 y.... .............. ............. 352 208 290 10.0 16.9 509 59 1.
18905950 ...0 ..... 334.3....32...5.3 44 54.0 54.7 545 U14250 W24 y- -................... 7,68 5,07 5,84 55. SI 9.4 a05I S. I 04
25 0545000......- …MIS... .5 2Z022 20022 5.5 . .771 4 .7 7 4.025 W 54 y0.50...................................... .9d9 1.827 1.02 5.5 :I 40 . 4 F 41.0 .S5 05 Y 40os ------- - - ---- 570 280 175 2N I 3.5 3.5 3.2 23 Lo2.
ThOM A.10. E.oeWsss.4 W.5450.08wk80.540h6080-ft-
£50190750.85 .00690 ~~~~~J.. ON J J., SooJ OM N.s. D.S. J.,~_______________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~i087 i0071, 85IM I7 1987 1007 IN?8 1957 5055
CQs.us ss-.54580s" 90401... ....W. 25. 555 N00826.545 555n-- mi 25.00 2.145
0050.5 tb. f8-. 0 5.42 560.763 16.822 16.341 18.594 16.755 16.50 16.85 56929690556858589 If 62.9 943 S2 94. 9 64.5 64.8 64.7 64.7
Onsi~so I.i…… 4.l Is1.s~ I.4o2 1 4.2" 5.7 14.04 15.017 15.00 15.076Es05a l005.8p4555550'... 55.1 I 57.7 50.71 50.5 572 5.6 57 57.0 5.
U ~11058Y4 ---- .. ................ ..-. ......... 1.094 1.723 1.794. 2.546 1.850 i5.09 1.832 I.845 IAN5USSOw.m1455159 W -,........ ..... 52.4 l ~ 50.8 12.5' 50.91 100 15.0 50.0 50.9
N589500505. M ........ F .0.473 9.3519.24, 9.174 0.3SF .254 8.152 0.215 92230
""'80 1 - f d - l PON5
24
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Tanb A-11. O stlas s ad it. iy.d ass anptd, not a-f djo d
{Numbrs o th-UShd)
HOUSEHOLD DATA
- cwft. Wbl .. WCat - U d U8W n81
0-*Jin. Jan.1987 1989
Tota 16 Yn ad o .......................................... .... .. .... 112.139
M E nl d puot o l .as s ................................,.27,160 29..3Excoo somtsrmsd vsnsgsns 12.829 13,579Po osl Nsrsty ................................ ........................... 4333 14 925
T- sl slmd rssd sppor ..................... .4........ ............ 349387 35213Tsohn a s astd ddp n .................................. 3. 233 3.496Sit. oc .ata s....... 13,073 13.269Mnssoa7. support. roludog olsncsl 18~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l,001 19 .478Adm am -b .4n , id CW............................ ............ .... so a47
Osao c=~ooo....... _.oss... 14.791 11.134PFot lostod .... . ...ee- j. 962 877P101. 05. .salo.. .............................. ............... 1........................., 14,0 91 3P59i hoospt pn..t. I.o ...lo.d sod pl5rKOt ..... ....... .t.a. 11,995 12.347
F sd on p odo- s o..a sad tp.. .......................... .........-................... 13.279 1 .3.193 .M s o Ud a s o d . .......................... _............................. 4,41 2 .4.97
bn -, s-d .. .................... 4.729 4.926Col nat 710051051 Slid 1840 . .: .. 4,129 4.0es
Ow P-- -m l on b"ctn nr . k .... ........... .... .. .... .......... ............. .........~ 41320 40Oparto.. labdlor sod labrs 16,744 17A37M.N. opsltornn. sbls and osNJ c. 7,962 7,926T pbon aid sanl -nW -pal .o....... . 450w 46a4HU.%9M qp-nan son hgtF n. d lst 4 562 4636
Cori or . . . 6..................... .oter sitrs, qwVst nlas s t W. ................ 3936 3 979
F.s fsn f101 y, and b97 . .......... 2.......... ........... 2.................................................................... 2,722 2.886
J.s. Jan. Jan.1W07 1900 1987
6.620 7,603 7.3
704 .615 2.5386 333 2.9319 281 2.2
1.723 1.16 4.8127 119 38751 749 54845 748 4.5
1,451 1.260 8.996 51 84121 09 62
1.64 1.120 9.5
1.153 S90 8.0240 183 5.2643 584 120270 233 6.
2292 1.998 1 12.0941 779 I 11.0517 440 l0t
I3 779 15:5259 283 29.2575 495 12.7
324 331 j 10.6
Jan1988
6.3
2.12.241 .3
3335.33.9
7.75.54.58.3
6.84 1
10.55.4
10.49.09.7
14.436111.1
10.3
P- anth - l k M od t t W bor a Ana Flsod ow s t jo ass
T-@~~~~~~ A t Eto o1rnla -orolpod tout__
Tt.W A-it. Eep5O., .. ti .a dej Vi~imbs miss Wi naamtam by p9. IiM saawl *586
(N-b i. th-f
I aa a torh
od Sr TObl E.pad jbPtosdes Pensi S
iso. ilL JL IJO Jn an. iss. . sl. in io io s so i .! 1987 198e 1867 ' 1989 1967 1969 1997 1989 1997 1989
VIETNAL.ERA VETERANS
T1W. 30 y sad o . . . 7.799 7.905 7.267 7.207 8.934 8.840 433 307 8.0 5.130M 44 e-, ... .2s95 .054 6.047 j 5.739 5sse 5.433 382 306 6.3 5.3
30 t.34y r .. .26 704 977~ 750 661 704 li6 40 jig 635 to 3s ya:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::n:::::::::.. ... 2.819 2.365 3.720 2.259 2583 2,112 157 140 5.8 6401044745r. ....... .. . ............ 2.450 2.895 2.310 2,731 2.241 2.817 109 114 4.6 4.2
45y Joraand. . . .. 1503 1G811 1220 1460 8 .1,89 1.407 51 81 4.2 4.2
NON4VETEAANO
Tot10 30 44y. 12............ .r. 1896 19 6 18.023 1 1 16A93 17879 1.130 922 6.3 4.2010 34761.9.... .......... . ........ ... 898-G 8.991 8.271 6.499 7.717 ,019 554 400 67 063510395y . .53 8,590 5.994 5.344 5.942 340 259 60 4.24010 4 47 Y9 ....... ......... ..1...1. ... 295 4,417 4.068 4,101 3.832 3,018 230 103 5.6 4.5
NOTE: Mob Va.s v - -ao st -.0,, nh. k.td t106 30 a W4 yasl 0 gO, Oa p9 7181 owl 00901 ltsy cponl 10For bo A.o S. 1984 ad May 7. 1975. Norl-a o. - u. bll Of 09 VlOs 98 poplom.a oo hnv - ad a 01 Abd Foru: phd dat. - oed M
25
HOU0EHOLW DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA
Tft* A-I3. E100p07000 00k990 99 V. 96.. pop.*Oo1o 6 ..o. MM.6 60900
NW1 -oo.d *M0 Soooloofy d4168
St0f r9 p*0 - Mt J.o. D.o. J-o J., SWo 0W. Mo. Dbo.. J.n1967 10617 1908 1907 1987 19187 1087 0987 19888
c.doo- ,90685t* P. W ................. . 28.31 28.751 20.707 2X8.0 20.839 20.678 28.714 20.751 28.787Cr4m,, M.6 000 ......................... 13.351 13.862 13.934 13.403 13.815 13.704 03.912 13.950 13.981
E ---------- 12.436 13.1102 13.145 12.558 13.827 12.9804 13.172 13.231 13.2675-190060 .... .. -.... ............... -- - 905 677 780 644 788 628 740 728 704UOOWyum.00189 1 .......... . .. ...... .... 609 4.9 5.6 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.3 5.2 5.0.
Om~ o,,ow00omw6o .......... 0.380 9.546 0,568 9.309 8.402 9.807 0.837 9.548 8968eOON.8 668 080 ....... ,................... 5.684 6.002 5.917 5.736 59080 50601 5088 5080 50993
E6*0o1d9 z-. ...... 5.337 5.705 5.633 5.411 5.600 5,668 5047 50801 9098L8000810.y.d ------------------ --.- 327 287 385 325 301 295 311 300 285
-0 or'-'s " 000..................... . .8 5.0 5.0 5.7 9.1 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.8
C#rA0494 hd 0805481 Pop.44080 5.... ~ .712 6.761 6.764 8.712 8.750 6.754 B.757 81.701 8.784CAo09,1 0960 088... . 5.08 t .716 5.741 5,96 5.03 5.857 5.764 5.750 5.795
Eo0Io.. . ... . - 5,047 5.320 5.317 5.237 5.441 5,463 5.364 5.325 5.407.80609.......... . ........ . ....---.------------ 461 396 424 423 302. 394 400 428 308
. ......... ... ..... ...... ............ 8.2 0.09 7.4 7.5 6.7 6.7 8.9 7.4 8.7
C."96. ,8886........ ... . .. ...... 4.577 4.506 45907 4.577 4.592 .4.593 4.584 4.596 4.507Olft.00I8800to. ............................ 3,838 3.087 3,1057 3.884 3,074 3,000 3.003 3.588 3.142
EnlpI ........... ................. ......... 2.908 3.0D 2,9888 2.094 2.882 3.014 3.008 2.898 3.036Un.,onp d .................. 024 62 110 118 82 07 84 go 106080900100091000 t.-......................... ... 4.1. 2.6 3.0 3.6 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.0 3.4
C"46. -*Wdkb858004I .60 ........0. .... 0..... .60. 6 0,63 .966 6.006 6 08 6.881 8056 8 962 6,968Cr4961000M. 0 I -. --.----.-..- . 4,4o6 4.401 4.426 48460 4.500 4.520 4.519 4520 4472E 01, -. -----------------..........4.054 4.10 3.054 4.150 4230 4.107 4.159 4.137 4,016U0141y0d1.... ..... .... ........ -.. 356 3 72 472 338 361 333 388 292 454
U09601pIy-"I6 190 . . ....... .0.1 ---- 0.3 1 0.7 7.6 7.0 7.4 0.0 8.7 10.2
0if.~o 0800080408096 PWAOM88 ..... . 9. 6.021 6.034 9.908 6.8011 6.015 6.000 6.602 6.023Cr46., '600- 0 -- ............ ......... .. 3.3 3,98 3.065 3.097 3.933 3.905 3.994 4.005 4.037
E , .......... .. -3884 3.83 37086 3.748 3.762 3,68n 3.047 3,04 3.884Lk0006Is.4.. -- 175 142 170 148 170 I68 147 .157 053L009006000000 fat0. ..... 465 3.6 4.9. 3. 42 4.0 3.7 3.0 5.6
CON., fl8001984A909 88840800 ... ............ 13.737 13.788 13.788 13.737 13.76 13.765 13.766 13.708 13.768Cmf. 96, ... .... .4808 ........... ......... 6.. 8486 .536 6.7523 6.480 8.421 8.476 8,553 6.512 6.524
681610,96 .............................. 7943 0.070 0,086 7.9049 80.37 8.066 8.112 8.127 6.120Uhl~lv00o10 93 ....... ............... 53 355 427 498 304 410 440 305 404UOO.P.006190000 00 . .......... ............. 6.2 4.2 5.0 590 4. 4.8 5.2 4.5 4.7
09961480800854t8 POA661 .............. 4.772 4.08- 4.852 4..772 4,027 4,.034 4.848 .4.648 4.852C.*.90 900008 f~.. .... . ........ ........... 3.20 3.38 3.247 32351 3.382 33324 3.314 3.281 32381
E.V16,6 … .... 3.039 3.044 3.063 3.00 . 3.097 3.1511 3.101 3.044 3.035Li80R"W9 ........ 168 136 008 056 038 138 033 097 1568010109090 M90 ... ........ ..... ... . 5.2 4.3 9.0 4.9 4.0I 4.1 4.0 45 4.7
Ohio
C,.41. 00800985819 p w. .......... ... .. 0038 0.170 6.000 8.028 6.167 8.171 6.074 6.070 0.160CMFN.,b. o0 ............... .. .....- . .30 5.89 6.258 527.6 5.161 5.219 5263 5.384 5.330
E.0060y96 - 4.748 4.937 4.083 4.540 4.890 ..900 4.945 4.937 4.983-,.W .. 452 322 375 427 390 315 316 327 347
MI .......................0...... . - ..G..7. 6.0 1 5 .6 6,0 60 62 6 5
0.. 080688. 90948016W09
26
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Tae 8.13. Empe.tsd etatu fr tniflee peie tee a tarp Stee-Ceetbued
(Number in thoced)
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Not _Mea dsted' Seownuly djlUeedState nd 9t55t9 tu Jan. Doc. J"e. en. SePt Oct. No. De. Jar
1997 1987 1998 1997 1¶87 1987 1987 1987 1908
Cetber nooiotecb.ooal Ppubtoln .................... _ 9 9,307 9,309 9.2e8 9,299 9,303 9,305 9.307 9,30DCrue Ior for c ................. 5.................... 5.494 5,752 5,729 5.593 5,993 5,734 5.709 5,780 5.827
Em.p"oye.........- ..................... 5.139 5,459 5.32 5,259 5,395 . 5,403 9,394 5.457 5,497U-etyed .359 293 3W! 334 319 331 315 323 330Uerlonrenr rate9 .............. .. 8.5 5.1 6.2 9.0 5.9 |. 8 j .S 5.9 5.7
Tern , I
Ccttita orsuo pOPbtoin ................................ 11.995 , 12.048 i2.050 0.99 5 3 12,041 12.044 12,049 12.050li- . . ..... .... ................. ..... ,29 .2......... 54127 82I 92a D 8 .2 U 7,249 195351 18.28 55
Employed -.... ... 7.7.9 7..9...7,592.. 7 708 ,I 5 7.,94s 7595
Uempbyd 7 .................................... 9.8 8 .4 94 8.01 .3 9 7.7 8.0
Thse e thc e offieb ureau 1 Labor Ste eoate usd in the Idlt number aPe or the unadAned end re es tely edwdedmceysMor of Feder hnd tu ocer pro m. ob.-ns
The poprdeoo figure - nor W dpeted tot uesnel caretion. r thor-.
27
.-ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Table 1B-I. Employees on nomagi1culturut payrolls try Industry
. I~~~ a--.- I a.ino.a .- w
I... 94I I . 0*. I I Ja.. M 937. 04 I i so171; .. ' 39.
............ 84390 430 8..0 .... .3. .3.8 .338 83,5 84032 34.332 a4,4I
............... ......... . 24.139 23.394 23.3, 2482 2479 2.39 2.04 2.69 3.38 2.3
06 7"I44 3 93 3 944 .933 99 9"I
0430fl0343487' . 03~~~~~~~~~~.12.0 434.3i 44.69' 434.0 403 439 4"3 439 1.43 424
I883 3.43 2.8 I 923 8. I 33.348 3.24 3333 39.309 39.402A3u09.3.....2......... 33'11' 33:.264 33.2143 313.121 312 .834 311.0192 3323 3.9 1.39 3.4
L,3,48.22469 . 90C8 943.0 742.2 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~792.3 933 1 I: "I 930 934 533
F~~s,43,o~~~~m034349 . 300.0..... $ 33. 344 343 0 2 , 324 32 320 33
342833c~~~~~~~~~f303a3Fo31g 234~~~~~~~~~~207.49a. 2,83.9 2839.4 2340 2303 2861 28 23 93
. ..... f.00333 2:*.004. 2,093.8 2,128.3 2,2338.0 .0 .3 . 2.094 :0.083 2.08438048,i894339349936033.'3 3,30.91 21,322. 2..33,31 3,333. 23.33 3.3 233 2. 61 338
63084,348480330,'W70 343.9 843.0 344.3 814.9 333 839 338 333 433 823~~~6? I30 .35 $1 .264t3,OOWMO,034840700W36 883.6 923.3 903.3 493.9 439 693 699 ~~~~~ D
9S304,0ww0689fl .. 39~~~ ~~~~~.9 39, 3.N0.31 1 39.4 33.. 33, 313 34.2 3412 33
OW~~~d34fl349480000fl 3.033,3~~~~~~I 1.3, .043,3 3,042.3 3.033 3.033 3.033 3.04 3I,049 8.09
39,033,*3,486fl~~~~~~33.W3 86~~0.4 63, 38. 342, 864 348 34I69 30 6
L333'.4................ 343.3 133.3 813.3 358,4 8397 332 I33 330 333 I33
..... .......... 93,392..... 98.,70, 33,344 90,433 96.283 79.330 99.339 98,33 9.:33 90.484
C.l~t........0348.... 2,203 0,239 2,239 2,2397 2.215 2,233 2,233 3.243.1 2,2431 2.224
......... ............. 1.348 3',43 I,9 ,9 ,8 .3 ,4 .3 .3 .
36348 ................. .2,332 .3,40 2 .403 ,4 .5 2.383 .3 ,3 2.397 2,393 3,390 3.823
9,8310 38,920 89060 33.303 3300 8.334 5,0 843 343 3.3
7000630,33.0,989.8 3,030.6 3,036,39,7: 3,009.0 2,32311 2.30 .94 2,9812 3,9 3,0344430~~300300fh6O48W303363476 3 30,38. 3,838.9 2.,0001,6 ,0. 3:0 ,990' 3,889 3,0 3,00 .033 3.029
E43~~~~,089M3440W0 . 84...3.... 51..4 3.392,0 6.00,43,03. 3,4 ,08 602 I,4 4,043 4,08
8 U33.393 6,403 6,433 4,633 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1,603 I 4,480 4,43 4,630 4:.639 1 6.449 .49F0.in,38 , ... 3.032 3,293 .~~~~ ~ ~ ~~~3.30 3,9 .3 .9S .3 3,33 ,53 3.38
2,....... .009 2,30" 3.030 2,079 2,.032 3,034 2.043 2,009 3,060 2,3
. .......................... 3,83.13 3,203 3,203 8.239 3,233 0,233 3,336 3,239 3,232 3,830
.......... 2~~~3,363 24,433 34,323 24.232 03,690 t4233.2 24,2 I 44* 24.403 24,3
I.0 . . ............ . .... ,93971: 3:0,039 30.33 39,332l 347,3 39,043 3 ,38 39 I,03 3.9 8.300
Q - . ..................-. 3.388 2,934 2,999 2,39 ,93 394 236 2,90 ,33 0,8
04348 ... 3,398 4,099 4,393 3,939 ,929 3.939 3,393 3,.03.3,9.4 3,39LOIS' ... 0.043 30,304 30,49 30,336 30,093 30,333 03,23 30,233 3. 303 30233:
28
ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Table B.2 Aisrap webly hours of I or oomuuvei workes 0on22 O nonlagr~ImItaJ payrolls by Industry
J... *,...T... .. 1 J.. S... 2634. 0... -., 31. I4353 232 227 23321b- 2337 237s j a 232 t 232 27 2p 33i 4
42. .42.3 43.3 42.2 (2) (2) (2) 0) (2) (_n' .............................................. -T1 s.5 a... 1a) "2 t t 2
M_ .... W ........................................ 17.2 37.2 37.4 3*4 (2) (2) (22 (2) (2) 02)O m .................................... . . . . . . . . 3. 3.
0w__ ~~~~~~~............... .*.4. ) 1.1.1*. 1.*. 1F~e~ ..................................... 1 . * . . X bs1 s:*1 * .0 *. *
.u ~ l7n . ............................ *.1*. *. *.1 0**. 0**. 0s1
rl. 7S n m, ................................ 1 .$ o or s.o x a.3 x.o * b..3 42......... 4 1. 42.3 12.3 4. 1 2.0 41. .2.3 42.3 41.0 4kGE 7)a,2444 . . . . . . . . ..... 0 , . . 1.. '..3 I
LO.42 r4404mw3 43.2 3.4 40.3 33.2.40.2.3...............4 40.4 40. 40.3 33.IF.m032)h3 33. 47.4 40.0 33.0 42.2 0 33. 40. 42.0! 3. 334
S2.324,2224323.t4 ................. 44.4.42.4.42.3 422.2. 41.3 43.0 43.3 42.4 12.2f ..a .n . . .4.............. . 42. 3... . . .3 *3. 442.4.3 4. 41.2 414. 1
F.6t43.03)2J(34214422 42~~~~~~~~~~~~~1.3 42.36 42.2 42.3 42I 402 20 2. 2. 4.
M~~lam~~dnS7 ~...................... ... . . . .. s 11. s I .3 .I X I a1; () {21 s)ft
46840(32232,422)222407324 42.0 423 43.6 4 2 .0 42.4 43. 42.3 4.3 4 23
44240733)4.22 27 . ........................ . .4 4.3 4.3 42.0 40.4 4.2 42.0 40. 3 42.2
ATc" Wpft .............. . ........... 11. 4s~ *0. s.a (2) 11 () X f1fTmin- W.&.............................. 31.* *1 43.7 *.4. 1 43: I: *1.: *1.: *1.:s ^1.2 *1dhA.O. %W 42. 3 44.T 4 43 42.2 423 4.3 3 .. 3 42.4 42. 4
24433332 .....2232 2 . ................ 4.3. 4 2 .2 43.3 42.3 43.0 3.2 42.4 42.3
43223.432032234072823264433 . 42.2 : 1: 42.0: 42.4 42.60 22 4. 43.2 42.I 42. 42.
M46 m l 1 1 v I .......................................3... 33.2 33.. 32.42 (2) (2 ) (2) (2) (2) (1)2 33.3 0.4 4.0 4.2 402 402 40. 40.......................4. 40.3 34.9 39.0 39.1 (O 9O (O O
4343.0 3.3 3.2 , 3.2 , , .4 , 3.. ....... 2I................................ .. 2.. 38.1 3..3
038328............. I.3 43.2 44.2 42.3 a4.0 40.2 '40.3 24.6 20.6 24.3
Fk.M _ _ - 7.4 42.3 40.1 32.1 223 227 (2) O 2) (2) (2)
8 _ . ............. ......... 3 3.3 32.7 33.4 32.2 33.0 32.0 32.3 33.262622228 32.2-32. 32. 32.20 32.3 3.0 .4 324 323 3.2 3.
77=I ve .*n ft I_ InW. z b 7 " ol__' " oafwl Wesullm2 :11122.3 23.0 ot 2.31. 2.3 2.0 23 . .
32233. 22222 228377 34.3e~ulo 32. 32.4 36.3 22T2.() () 2
24_22 33. 323 3. 3. 24 3.3 3. 24 23 3.
29
ESTABSUSHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Table 3 Avaap hOuw and Wee_ ean. of Production or nw0vlor wrkWi' on pfise noglcornl
paol by kusy
-y- - --
87 87 .......................... .........
*[email protected] 88.3 89.32 88.39 308.38 8728.07 8338.28 8330.78
...................................................... 12. 12. 7 3 .41 32.83 538.05 I 27.*8 537.03 53 2.14
__ l~~~~~~~~~~~~2.88 I 32.8 30.7 320 48tO*7.3 4 78.88 480.53 480.40_6 .,..................................................... .84l.ol.ol.n *o l.58 .1-.41 121,4 4 11.90 . * @~ ".
D I 0~~~~~ ~~~.388 7 0.00 0.08 70.0 0093.47 434.3 40079 5'.0 4 |3O3 .8 I
-..T-iv .......................................... I . 17.0 10 3 to.., 17°00 8.11 0 2.3 7*1**7....................... 03 00.............................83 104 07, .4 05 3.7 7 T94 .51
_ TY . .............. ... .3 7 3 0 3 4.... I . 30 1 30 3 DD 8 . 33 7 I4 D
T.WI___,, 8 5....... .................. 3.7, 3. I. 751 1 83 8 4 3 32.31i
rdio..a4,8 . 993 3 T0. .0 00 03 4 7 : 4 2 37.84 420.33
M.W awoyooow8O Dk23 80.78 3. 3. 38 488 8 0 47.2 48 I.8 I
83.803883AS88uW*8083 ..... 8.84 30.00 00.7 30..03 80.42 . 324.00 433.83 833.07
7,.t Xa3 0 3 3 .93 33.
i 8 3 3.2
jD4 33 .22 3 3 8.5 3 5 3 .47 5 8 8 3
* DI 'O7
. ........ ... 32.38 3 8 .88 35.70 8. 397.37 3823,TiWS7 b 8.8 8.7 88 . 38.37 83354 20.3 45.............
. . . . . . . . ....................................... . 74 .7 . 36. 373. 3 73. 37 .7
' _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...........: .0 .] s. 7 .a 2.1375.1 17.gBk.71. "7.3
r _ . _ _ _ _ I ' 0.80 -8.88 8.05 9.30 354.72 385.57 373.88 388.73
7n8,J3288... 33......................~ .97 03.48 33.80 33.2 483.38 530 33.4 53.38.
7 7 7 7.370 293.93 308.8 309.88 303.93
_~~~~~~~~. .. . .. ._ .. .. . .. " '
m................ . . 30.34.30.8.30.44 3 .7 38.38 38 7.84 404.03 380.38
O.8883aW2805d ....... 82.78 30.38.....32.83...33.82 .33 .0 537.57 338.02 83.8
.,473547 34.3....... .. 27 3473 3.70 34.75 843.45 488.08 854.88 883.85
~~~~P- 1'9:3~~~~~~883 8.3 8.3.0 00 38.3 738 38.2 378.003.0.58 w.53 ....... 04: ........ : :: 8.00 8.30 8.33 I ' .22.2' 234!:O.0 273 '523.0
7fl.5n~~~~~~~8 ...... .31.83.......32.. 3702323.30 487.7747.08. 475.30 448.48
vn a t .. 8..8....8.74.8.34..8.83.383.57..377.04..-373.04..37..78
Iwea 8.............................. .09 8.38 8.37 8.22 372.33 378.53 380.78 274.33
....................... 7.8.73..72.8.80.28.53.083.0.283.40 08.00
Table B.. Hoully Eaminp Indx fr production oe nw7separiM workel' On psi* non*glcuhwml payrolls by kndab
tl~~~~~~~~~~~~pe T77O
_ _ . . -1-
5.s. 2.8 .~j ;D'; 0. ; J. ,; 5.8. J.. 8.80. 0 ;;; D;;; 0.3. P | IU;-3887 387 87, 288 I;;;- 287 397 387 087 307 387
.W e . . 328 3888
380.8 384.3 383.8-383.0 .2 333 347 IS.. 3;3 354 .343 3
>' _ _ l7~~~~~328. .338.2 355.3 388.5 2.31 32.0 35 4 353. 338. 384. | -' X".7 3.
01 E -- ln1 117bOe .......... _ o @ V
338.0. I . 383.8 32.8 0.2 5. 32 38. 3 .
Sn - 3.n 84 -0480~~~~~~~., ., S. Mo .. 1.9* o o.st a . I...3a8 Mw 884.08 ..
0 agSI l8onO .00 208'772 3838 a 88
C,710 - .,8058 1 8 0.8 38 , 7 1 *
90-832 0 - 89 - 2
30
ESTABLISHMAENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATATable B4 loIdexes of anat.St we"kl hours of productllo or nonsperolsa woulem .onPrivate nonagflculturalpsyrolal, y Industry
T ............... .. .... .. ....... .16.3 19... 82... 3 0.. 13... 19 .o. 12 1.3 124.1 2n.1 S 2.
Qooo;-&~".... . ..... .. . . . ....... 05.3 202.4 2 02.3 5 91.2 98.8 97.7 20.3 202.4 202.7 200.5.0ft .... .... .... .... . .. 9.4 87.6 894 83.2 79.9 94.-097.7 36.6 8 6.3 92.7C0 .... . ..................... 220.9G 237.2 133.6 225.8 236.2 224.9 236.8 236.2 134.5 232.2,
. ................ 207.2 225.4 it8.0 222.0 207.9 209.7 222.7 223.3 223.2 222.0
t.I 2 . . . ........h........... ... ..34. 55.0 34.3 46.2 33.2 54.0 33.0 54.0, 56.9Pa~~loa294,0.zaloooo..o28 3 93.2 04.4~~~:': 92. 99.2 99.2 923 9.:2 92.0 92.21
02c~r482ao47.ctoo~oq~ptr.............. 202.2 223.7 205.6 206.0 200.9 99.3 202.0 202.0 202.4 203.5?'a362o2722I47.q.,12.o~~~~~~~~~~~o2 2 99~~..4 0.4. 0.7. .7.3. 93. 79 9. 52 9.U022................... 2 2 97.3 7.7 92.14 87. 83. 649 67 9. 8.41949229 4902901172424...... fl..... 84.2 8.3 80.0 82..090.7 92.7 22.3 82.3? 93.6
......................... 200.2. 200.4 07.6 94.3 7. 9 .7 990 9.2 9.F400knm o. ................... 3. 203. 202.2 97.3 08. 00.2 20.3: 2024 02. :22.To-47,0u*ouo7 9 92. 942.2 730 7. 24 73. 054 .77.7907129,0420040.420.80.~~~~~ ~~ ~~~~3 849 4. "8. 82. 924 37 3. 3. 9.T-4..902021922022 8. 88.3 8.3I 9.92 1 9.9 97. 8.6 8.4 4.
0r202172.0022201147109. 229.2~~~~6: 234.6 236.7 832.2Z 229.3 232.4 232.3 233.0 1302.0 233.6Ch~~lli4416a~~~flh~~i..0..4...7 .. 92.3 94.7 98.9 97.2 03.2 96.4 96.3 97.0 97.9 96.0760.wobod.IP-o'd2 .90. *4.8 83.3 93.8 94.3 93.2 9.3. 93.90 9.3 86.384069'a007'124621a04.aplaocspooouct . 222.4 227.2 222.8 220.7 222.0 22.3 22.4 22.3:, 229. 220.
4...2.98.04.o4.8 2~~~~~~~~~. .. 26.4 23.2 23.2 230.7 22.9 232.9 233.3 233.4 233.2 234.20797063*2022,dp6082020.20. . . .. 14.3 222.9 222.7 20.4 20.7 209.9 220.9 220.7 220.3 222.2
WA- 9 09 -& ..... .... ...... 239.3. 262.2.628 14.0 4.4 24.4. 242.2 242.9 242.3 242.3
....... ........................... 243 .2 254.6 23. 5 . 49.41 252.0 253.51 254.6 225.2 256.0
Table 54. lodexon of diffusion., Percent of licdualtle In wh31ch employinarit2
locrmasood
622 6. 2.4 7. 64.2 51.2 0. 77.9
...o 28........ 49.7 20 4. 94 4. 54 484 3. 59 3. 94 4.
....298....... 5. 05.46p0
6-0.12 296 474 4.4 I o 43.2 4.4. 48.4 2.3. 53.7 59.:2 '9: 7. 5.so~~o 2997 . 62.9 4~~2.7 58.9 67.3 47.4 02.2 74.2 70.6 P7.3 732I
0.92 'I: *'1 "4 .*::s .1 I',2080 . L -~~~~~~~~~~ - ~ w-~ Rg - ---
O - 026220429,27..n dIMI
31
Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much, Commissioner. I willbe very brief this morning. In fact, I have another hearing which Ihave to chair shortly.
The Commerce Department earlier this week issued its releaseon the latest development in the Composite Index of Leading Indi-cators, showing that they had decreased 0.2 percent in December,according to preliminary estimates. The index had decreased in No-vember, and also in October. So that makes 3 straight months of adecrease in the Index of Leading Indicators.
Historically, has there been any correlation between a decline inthe leading indicators and a rise in the unemployment figure?
Mrs. NORWOOD. There has been, but it is spotty. It depends reallyon all of the other circumstances that have occurred. As you know,the major contributors to the decline in the leading indicators werebuilding permits decline and the stock market decline.
The leading indicators also do bounce around a bit and are oftenrevised. We have a minus 0.1 for October, a minus 1.2 in Novem-ber, and a minus 0.2 in December. The October number is reallyquite borderline.
So, though it is not suggesting that the economy is going fastahead, it is also not suggesting that it is plunging downward.
Senator SARBANES. When there is a correlation, by how much ofa time period do the unemployment figures lag before they reflectthe decline in the leading indicators?
Mrs. NORWOOD. There is a lag. If you like, we could go back intime and take a look at that. I don't have information on that here.There are times when the unemployment rate has not followed theleading indicators, but there are many times when it has, withsome lag. And that lag could be many months.
Senator SARBANES. Could be what?Mrs. NORWOOD. Many months.Senator SARBANES. Now, the service industries and retail trades
accounted for almost all of the growth in payroll employment inyour report this morning. Is that correct?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. That is right.Senator SARBANES. Is that a seasonal development that we need
to discount, or does it reflect some underlying strong job growth inretailing?
Mrs. NORWOOD. All of the data for the month of January are, ofcourse, affected by strong seasonal movements. The data for retailtrade, I believe, are reasonably in line with what has happened inthe previous period. Buildup over the Christmas season this pastyear was about in line with that which. occurred from 1985 onward,but a little bit less than what occurred during the early 1980's. Sothere may be some exaggeration. However, I think that part of theexplanation may be that it is getting increasingly difficult formany of our retailers to attract young people because there arefewer of them. It may also be hard to attract people at relativelylow wages typically paid by the industry.
Senator SARBANES. Let me go back to the previous subject be-cause I am curious.
How many months of a decline in the leading indicators wouldhave to occur before you expressed surprise that that decline wasnot showing up in the unemployment figures?
32
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think I would not look only at the leading indi-cators. My experience with the leading indicators is that they areoften revised and the numbers change fairly quickly.What I would be concerned about is the elements that make upthe leading indicators. And in looking at those, I find that, for ex-ample, the index in this month, in December, went down 0.2. Therewas a negative for the average workweek. I really think the aver-age workweek is at extraordinarily high levels, and whether it goesdown a tick or up a tick is not very important, so I would tend todiscount that.The initial claims figures have changed. The unemployment in-surance system is reporting now an increase in initial claims forunemployment insurance, and that is something that clearly bearswatching. But we have seen that turn around, too.New orders are up. The stock market we know about. The onearea that is really looking quite poor is housing. Building permits
are way down. That has had a big effect on the leading indicators,not just this month, but also in October. And I would watch that.That seems to have shown up, I think, in the construction num-bers.
Senator SARBANES. And then it is later reflected in all the otheritems that are involved in housing, is it not?Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. In other words, your permits for new housingare down. That does not reflect the orders for everything that goesinto housing, which would follow on.Mrs. NORWOOD. That is right. Furniture, appliances, things ofthat sort would be affected as well.Now, it is not clear why the housing market has been contract-ing. It may be in part some of the changes in the tax legislation
which make the purchases of some houses for investment purposessomewhat less remunerative. Over the year, employment in con-struction has changed very little.Now, in other parts of the economy, we are beginning to seesome improvement in export-related industries and export-related
activities.Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much.Congressman Wylie.Representative WYLIE. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.This really is pretty good news for January, is it not, which isusually a fairly slow month employmentwise, after Christmas, etcetera? Is that a fair statement?Mrs. NORWOOD. Some of the data are certainly quite good; yes.Representative WYLIE. I need to get a little provincial here andhave to get this question in. I see from table A-13 in your Employ-
ment Situation press release that the civilian labor force in Ohiohas increased by 150,000 in 4 months, just since September, on aseasonally adjusted basis. Our unemployment rate, if my figuresare correct, would be below 5 percent if that inflow had not oc-curred.My question is: Do you have evidence that there is migration
back to the upper Midwest from Texas, Louisiana, and other Statesexperiencing economic difficulties? Why has our labor force gainedby 150,000 during that 4-month period; do you know?
33
Mrs. NORWOOD. There has clearly been an increase in employ-ment in the region that Ohio is located in and the region surround-ing it, clearly not so much as in the West, where employment andthe labor force have increased a great deal.
Representative WYLIE. But our unemployment figure or ratewould be better if we hadn't had 150,000 people, apparently an in-crease in persons seeking employment during that period, obvious-ly.
Mrs. NORWOOD. That is true, of course. The unemployment rateis dependent on the number of people in the labor force who arelooking for jobs. One of the reasons that the labor force increases ispartly just because the people are there, and as population in-creases the labor force increases.
But another reason is that as people begin to feel that there maybe jobs available, they go out looking for them. So that is a goodthing.
Representative WYLIE. Our population in Ohio is actually declin-ing, except in the 15th Congressional District which I represent inthe central Ohio area.
Senator SARBANES. Which shows that quality congressional rep-resentation can attract population.
Representative WYLIE. It's OK for you to say that, Mr. Chairman.I would like to get back to the statement you made about the
construction industry. Being on the House Banking Committee, wehave jurisdiction over housing legislation. But your figures do showsome weaknesses in construction employment, perhaps in responseto higher mortgage rates last year. At least that is what the Na-tional Association of Home Builders attributed it to in Dallas lastweek when I was there.
Now, this week, we see that there has been a decline in theprime rate and a slight decline in mortgage rates. If that is sus-tained or continued, might not we expect some future gains in con-struction employment? What is the relationship between mortgageinterest rates and weakness or strength in the construction indus-try?
Mrs. NORWOOD. If interest rates were to stay down, clearly thatwould have an effect of increasing activity in construction. Thereal question is, first, whether they will go down sufficiently; andthen, second, whether they will stay down.
Most forecasters are expecting an easing of interest ratesthrough the end of next year and then a beginning of an increase.So it is a question of what people see down the line. I think a lot ofthat will depend, by the way, upon our success in export markets,because to the extent there is greater pressure on the dollar, therewill be more of a need to increase interest rates to attract foreigninvestment.
We seem to be doing fairly well on that score right now, so it is aquestion of whether that continues. So it is not just, I think, a ques-tion of the easing at the moment.
Representative WYLIE. You spoke about foreign investment. TheU.S. civilian unemployment rate is now 5.8 percent. How does thiscompare with European nations such as France, Germany, theUnited Kingdom, and Italy?
34
Mrs. NORWOOD. It compares quite favorably with most of theother countries. We are lower than most of the countries that wedevelop comparisons for, except for Sweden and Japan. For exam-ple, we have a lower unemployment rate now than Canada,France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and probably lower thanItaly, though there are some problems in calculating the Italianunemployment rate.
Representative WYLIE. Is the gain in export trade related to thegain in manufacturing employment?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Yes, clearly.I think the increase over the last 6 months in employment in
manufacturing is clearly related to the pickup in our trade.Representative WYLIE. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much, Congressman Wylie.Do you have those national comparisons for unemployment? Do
they embrace any of the Pacific Rim countries, other than Japan?Mrs. NORWOOD. No, they do not.What we do is get data to adjust their unemployment rates to
our concepts, and it is extraordinarily difficult to get that informa-tion.
Senator SARBANES. So for Korea or Taiwan, these countries thatare running very large surpluses, you don't have any figures ontheir unemployment rates?
Mrs. NORWOOD. No, we do not.Obviously, they publish them, but they are not generally compa-
rable to ours in concept.Senator SARBANES. As published, they are extremely low, is that
correct, for those countries?Mrs. NORWOOD. I believe so.Senator SARBANES. Well, thank you very much, Commissioner.Representative WYLIE. I have just one final question. I know you
want to go.What is your prediction as to continued economic growth in
1988?Mrs. NORWOOD. Like everyone else, I hope it will be very good.Representative WYLIE. You hope it will be very good.All right. Thank you very much.Senator SARBANES. The committee is adjourned.Thank you, Commissioner.[Whereupon, at 9:58 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to
the call of the Chair.]
EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT
FRIDAY, MARCH 4, 1988
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES,JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE,
Washington, DCThe committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m., in room SD-
628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chair-man of the committee) presiding.
Present: Senators Sarbanes, Proxmire, Roth, and D'Amato; andRepresentative Solarz.
Also present: Judith Davison, executive director; and WilliamBuechner, Jim Klumpner, Lee Price, and Chris Frenze, profession-al staff members.
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN
Senator SARBANES. The committee will come to order.I apologize for being detained. I have just renewed my conviction
that we need to improve the Nation's physical infrastructure, par-ticularly the transportation network.
I am very pleased once again to welcome Commissioner JanetNorwood from the Bureau of Labor Statistics before the committeethis morning to discuss the employment and unemployment figuresfor February.
Before you start, Commissioner Norwood, I just want to look atthe economy from the perspective of two other data series that areissued periodically by the Bureau of Labor Statistics-real earningsand productivity. Perhaps later in the hearing you might have achance to take a look at those.
As I understand the latest data series, last year, while the econo-my created almost 3 million new jobs and the unemployment ratedeclined, there was apparently a downward trend in the averageworker's earnings after adjustment for inflation. Earnings appearto have been a full percentage point lower in January of this yearthan they were in January of the previous year, and 2 percentlower than back in 1980.
The productivity figures for the economy were also a matter ofconcern. During the fourth quarter, nonfarm productivity rose byonly 0.3 of a percent and for the year as a whole by 0.9 of a per-cent. The only good news has been in the manufacturing sector,but even there improvement in 1987 was still only half of the gainregistered in 1983 and 1984.
Looking at these two series it seems that what kept the overallinflation rate from accelerating in the 1980's was not an increasein productivity but rather the low-wage gains received by workers,
(35)
36
at least if you put them together. Perhaps later after we've com-pleted review of the unemployment figures we might get into thissubject.
That concludes my statement. I'm now prepared to turn to theCommissioner but I think some of my colleagues may have state-ments. Senator Roth.
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR ROTHSenator ROTH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Welcome, Mrs. Norwood, Mr. Dalton, and Mr. Bregger. We look
forward to your testimony and indeed, as I understand it, today'semployment record is going to be good news for the Americanworker.
As I understand it, the unemployment has dropped 0.1 of a pointto a level of 5.7 percent, which I think is the lowest unemploymentsince 1979.
The closely watched payroll survey posts a huge increase of overa half million new jobs. My understanding is that this 1-month in-crease is one of the largest on record in the history of our country.
Now, according to the household survey, 280,000 new jobs werecreated in February which pushes the total household employmentto a level of 114.4 million, a new high. More Americans are em-ployed now than ever before. The creation of new opportunities forall Americans has pushed the employment-population ratio to arecord level of 62.2 percent. It's particularly good news that therise in the employment-population ratio is also reflected amongadult women workers.
In the course of this expansion over 15 million new jobs havebeen created and despite the mythology, most of these jobs havebeen in middle- and high-paying occupations. Moreover, not onlyhas the quality of these new jobs been good but we have createdabout seven times the number of jobs as all the other major indus-trial nations combined.
The ability of the United States to escape from malaise and stag-flation has also led to continued gains in median family income.Over the course of the expansion real income has risen by 10.7 per-cent. So that means a real sustained increase in American livingstandards.
For the 6th year of the longest peacetime upswing in U.S. histo-ry, while we've made much progress, we cannot be complacent. Wemust avoid mistakes of the past. We must never forget that the keytest of economic policy is the ability to create jobs and to increaseincome.
So I'm pleased to have you here today, Mrs. Norwood, and lookforward to your testimony.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Senator SARBANES. Thank you, Senator Roth.Does anyone else have an opening statement? Senator D'Amato.Senator D'AMATO. Mr. Chairman, thank you. In the interest of
time, I have another committee meeting, I'd like to submit mywritten opening statement for the record as if read in its entiretyand I certainly welcome Mrs. Norwood to the committee. It'salways a privilege to hear her and I'd like to get some of those
good words of wisdom on the record and listen to them for the few
minutes that I'm permitted to be here.Senator SARBANES. Very good. Your written opening statement
will be included in full in the record.[The written opening statement follows:]
38
WRITTEN OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR D'AMATO
MR. CHAIRMAN, I WOULD LIKE TO WELCOME TO THE JOINT
ECONOMIC COralMITTEE THIS MORNING DR. JANET NORWOOD.
COMMISSIONER NORWOOD, I AM MOST INTERESTED IN YOUR
OBSERVATIONS ON FEBRUARY'S EMPLOYMENT FIGURES.
AS WE ALL KNOW, LAST KONTH YOU REPORTED TO THISCOMM I TTEE EMPLOYMENT FIGURES FOR JANUARY THAT WERE AT THEIR
LOWEST SINCE THE END OF 1979. YOU REPORTED THAT THE TOTALCIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT ROSE A HEALTHY 385,000 TO A TOTAL OF114.1 MILLION IN JANUARY, A NEW RECORD HIGH. THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAAINED UNCHANGED AT A RELATIVELY LCOW 5.8
PERCENT.
YOUR REPORT SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTH IN OUR ECONOMY
THROUGH EXPANSION AND CREATION OF NEW JOBS. THESE FIGURES
EXCEEDED THE EXPECTATIONS OF MOST ECONOMIC FORECASTERS.
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATEDECREASED BY 0.1 OF A PERCENT TO 5.7 PERCENT. THE NUMBER OF
39
INDIVIDUALS EMPLOYED , AS SHOWN BY BUSINESS PAYROLLS,
I.KCREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 530,000.
I N THE STATE OF NEVW YORK, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY DECREASED FROM 4.7 PERCENT TO 3.9 PERCENT.
OVERALL, THESE FIGURES PAINT A VERY BRIGHT EMPLOYIMENT PICTURE
IN OUR NATION.
JANUARY [hARKED THE SI XTH CONSECUT I VE NONTH OF EMPLOYMENT
INCREASES IN THE I`AIMUFACTURING SECTOR. THE CONSTRUCTION
I NDUSTRY, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS SHOv'e S I CGS OF WEAI(NESS I N
THE W0AKE OF HI GHER I [frEREST RATES LAST FALL. I AY, HOPEFUL
THAT THE RECENT TREND TOWARD LOWER INTEREST RATES WILL BOOST
CONSTRUCT I ON I N THE COM I NG MONTHS.
I LOOK FORWARD TO DR. NORWOOD'S TESTIMONY THIS MORNING
AND HOPE THAT IT WILL CONTA I N ENCOURAG I NG EMPLOYMENT
INFORMATION FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN.
40
Senator SARBANES. Senator Proxmire.
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR PROXMIRESenator PROXMIRE. Let me simply say that I concur in the obser-
vations of the chairman that we're unhappy about the level of realincome. The circumstances of rising employment and diminishingunemployment, they should go up and it has not.
I'm also very concerned about the fact that minorities are doingmuch worse. I see that at a time when we have diminishing unem-ployment and rising jobs the unemployment for blacks is higherthan it has been in the third quarter or the fourth quarter in De-cember and January and it was a big increase, an increase from12.2 to 12.6 percent unemployment. Hispanic has also gone up. Itwas down in January but it's back up in February and that was anincrease of 1.1 percent, a sharp increase. So it looks like, as youwere telling us in our informal discussion, the Kerner report of adivided country in which whites are doing well but blacks are notand other minorities are not seems to be persisting.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much.Commissioner, we are prepared to hear from you.
STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER,BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC-COMPANIED BY KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMIS-SIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS; ANDJOHN E. BREGGER, ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OFCURRENT EMPLOYMENT ANALYSISMrs. NORWOOD. Thank you very much. Mr. Chairman and mem-
bers of the committee, we are, as always, very pleased to be here.Employment rose strongly in February as the business survey re-
versed the weakness in January and the household survey contin-ued to show growth. The overall jobless rate was 5.6 percent inFebruary and the civilian worker rate 5.7 percent. Both rates werebelow the rates of last fall and nine-tenths of a point below a yearago.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 530,000 in February, fol-lowing a much smaller increase in January. Over the 2 months,the number of payroll jobs grew by an average of 350,000, aboutthe same as the monthly gains in the last quarter of 1987. Over theyear, the business survey posted a 3.1 million job increase, andtotal employment, as measured by the household survey, showed asimilar gain.
The service industry's weak performance in January was re-versed in February, as the number of jobs in the industry rose by avery large 200,000. The fast growing business and health servicesindustries together accounted for more than half of this advance.Retail trade employment rose in both January and February aspost-Christmas cutbacks this year have been much smaller thanusual.
Finance, insurance, and real estate was the only service-produc-ing industry that did not show an employment gain in February.The number of jobs in the finance industry itself declined by about
41
10,000, following several months of slowed job gains. This probablyresulted from the employment retrenchment following last Octo-ber's financial market upheavals.
In the goods-producing sector, construction employment rose byabout 105,000, after seasonal adjustment. The number of jobs inthis industry had actually declined in January, and growth hadbeen quite weak for much of last year. In manufacturing, whereemployment had advanced substantially during the second half of1987, the number of jobs edged up in February. This makes 2months of very modest factory employment growth.
Civilian employment in the household survey rose by about280,000 in February after seasonal adjustment, and the proportionof the population employed reached a new high of 62.2 percent.
Jobless rates have fallen sharply over the past year. At 5.7 per-cent in February, the civilian worker rate was down almost a fullpercentage point, to its lowest level since July 1979. The rate foradult men declined sharply over the year-from 5.8 to 4.9 per-cent-while the rate for women dropped from 5.8 to 5.2 percentand that for teenagers moved from 17.9 to 15.4 percent.
Rates for whites, blacks, and Hispanics were down substantiallyover the year; for all three, the early 1988 jobless rates were at ornear the lows recorded in 1979. The rates for minority groups arestill quite high; for example, the jobless rate for blacks remainsmore than twice the rate for whites. Over the last year, however,more than the usual number of blacks and Hispanics entered thelabor force, and they obtained 1 in every 3 of the new jobs. Even so,the proportion of blacks with jobs at 56 percent is still much lowerthan that of whites which is 63 percent.
In summary, employment advanced strongly in February. Verysubstantial job growth occurred in the service-producing sector,while factory job increases moderated. The drop in unemploymentevident in 1987 has been sustained in early 1988.
My colleagues and I will be happy to try to answer any questionsyou may have.
[The table attached to Mrs. Norwood's statement, together withthe Employment Situation press release, follows:]
Unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods
Month _nad- Concurrent X-lI methodMonth Unad- Concurrent (official Rangeand justed Official (as first Ctncurfift StaBi T6tal Residual method (cola.year rate pdure computed) tt ed 1980)
MU) (2) (3) (4) (5 6) (7) (8) (9)7
1987
February .... 7.2 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 .1March.......6.9 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 .1April....6.. .2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 .1May ......... 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 .2June ........ 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 .1July ........ 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 .1August......5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 .1September ... 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 .1October......' 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 .1November... 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 -December .... 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 .1
1988
January ..... 6.3 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.8 .2February .... 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.8 .2
SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABORBureau of Labor StatisticsMarch 1988
43
(1) Undsted rate Unemploymnt rate for all civilian workers, not seasonally adjusted
(2) Official procedure (I-Il ARIHA ethod). The published seasonally adjusted rate for
all ivilian workers. iEh of the 3 major civilian labor force components--agrieulturel
employment. nonagricultural employment and unemployment-for 4 age-eex groups-mel a*nd
females, *gas 16-19 and 20 years and over-are seasonally adjusted independently using data
from January 1974 forward. The data eeries for each of these 12 componenta are extended by
a year at each end of the original series using ARDtA (Auto-Regresaive, Integrated, Moving
Average) models chosen specifically for each series. Each extended series Is then seasonally
adjusted with the X-ll portion of the X-1l ARIMA program. The 4 teenage unemployment and
nonagricultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjustment model.
while the other components are adjusted vith the multiplicative model. The unemployment
rate is computed by summing the 4 seasonally adjusted unemployment components and calculating
that total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by *ummIng all 12 seasonally
adjusted components. All the seasona 1y adjusted series are revised at the end of each year.
Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; extrapolated
factors for July-December are computed in the middle of the year after the June data become
available. Each set of 6-month factors a*re published In advance, in the January and July
Issues, respectively, of Employment and Earnings.
(3) Concurrent (as first co puted X-l ARDA method) The official procedure for
computation of the rate for all civilian workers using the 12 components is followed
except that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component is seasonally adjusted
with the X-1l ARIMA program each month as the most recent data become available. Rates for
each month of the current year are shown *a first computed; they are revised only once each
year. at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example.
the rate for January 1984 would be based, during 1984. on the adjustment of data from
the period January 1974 through January 1984.
(4) Concurrent (revised X-1l ARIMA method). The procedure used Is identical to (3)
above, and the rate for the current month (the last month displayed) will always be the
sam In the two columns. Rowever, all previous months are subject to revision each month
based on the seasonal adjustment of all the components with data through the current month.
(5) Stable (X-ll MIMA ethod). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components Is extended
using ARI.A models as In the official procedure and then run through the X-ll part
of the program using the stable option. This option assumes that seasonal patterns
are basically constant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors as
unweighted averages of all the seasonal-irregular components for each month across
the entire span of the period adjusted. As in the official procedure, factors are
extrapolated in 6-month intervals and the series are re vised at the end of each year.
The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted components
is also identical to the official procedure.
(6) Total (X-ll ARllA ethod) This is one alternative aggregation procedure, in
which total une ployment and civilan labor force levels are extended with ARIMA models
and directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models in the X-It part of the
program. The rate is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as a
percent of seasonally adjusted total civilian labor force. Factors are extrapolated
in 6-month intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.
(7) Residual (X-ll MIMA method) This is another alternative aggregation method, in
which total civilian employment and civilian labor force levels are extended using ARIMA
models and then directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonally
adjusted unemployment level is derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted employment
from seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate is then computed by taking the derived
unemployment level as a percent of the labor force level. Factors are extrapolated in
6-month intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.
(8) X-ll method (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the official
procedure is used except that the series are not extended with ARIMA models and the factors
are projected in 12-month intervals. The standard X-ll program is used to perform the
seasonal adjustment.
Methods of Adjustment: The X-11 ARIMA method was developed at Statisticr Csnads by the
Seasonal Adjstment and Times Series Staff under the direction of Estela gee Dagum. The
method is described in The X-Il ARIMA Seasonal Adjust ent Method, by Estela See Dagum,
Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564U, February 1980.
The standard X-ll method is described in X-Il Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal
Adlut Program by Julius Shiskin, Allan Young and John Muagrave (Technical Paper
No IS Breuot the Census 1967).
44
A | United StatesN ew s~~~~~DepartmentIUVV WOof Labor 4*
Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212
Technical Information: (202) 523-1371 USDL 88-103523-1944523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THISMedia contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (EST), FRIDAY,MARCH 4, 1988
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: FEBRUARY 1988
Employment growth was quite strong in February, the Bureau of LaborStatistics of the U. S. Department of Labor reported today. The overalljobless rate was 5.6 percent, and the civilian worker rate was 5.7 percent.Both have edged down in recent months--by three-tenths of a percentagepoint since last October.
Nonagricultural payroll employment, as measured by the survey ofbusiness establishments, surged by 530,000 in February, following arelatively small increase in the prior month. Total civilian employment,as measured by the household survey, rose by nearly 300,000 over the month.
Unemployment (Household Survey fata)
The number of persons unemployed in February, at 6.9 million,seasonally adjusted, was about the same as in January. The civilian workerunemployment rate, at 5.7 percent, also showed little over-the-monthchange. However, it has edged down by three-tenths since last October andwas nearly a full percentage point lower than a year ago.
Jobless rates for adult men (4.9 percent), adult women (5.2 percent),teenagers (15.4 percent), whites (4.8 percent), and blacks (12.6 percent)showed little change in February. After dipping in January, the Hispanicunemployment rate (8.3 percent) returned to the levels that generallyprevailed in the latter half of last year. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)
The median duration of unemployment--6.4 weeks--was unchanged fromJanuary and was slightly lower than a year earlier. The number andproportion of the total unemployed who had lost their last jobs declined-markedly over the past year. (See tables A-7 and A-8.)
Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total civilian employment rose by 280,000 in February to 114.4million, seasonally adjusted, with almost the entire gain taking placeamong adult men. The proportion of the population with jobs was at arecord 62.2 percent. Recent employment growth has been particularly strongin executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Over the pastyear, employment in these occupations has accounted for more than a thirdof the 3 million growth in total civilian employment. (See tables A-2 andA-Il.)
45
The civilian labor force grew to a level of 121.4 million in February,seasonally adjusted, with the labor force participation rate edging up to66.0 percent. Since last February, the labor force has grown by 2.0million, with nearly two-thirds of the increase occurring among adult
women. (See table A-2.)
Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
Quarterly Monthly dataaverages 1
Category Jan.-1987 1987 1988 Feb.
__________________ -- I | I changeHUuSHOLu DATA
-L~sszn un
Labor force 1/.....Total employment 1/..
Civilian labor force...Civil an employment..Unemployment .........
Not in labor force.....Discouraged workers..
Unemployment rates:All workers 1/.......All civilian workers.
Adult men..........Adult women........Teenagers..........White..............Black..............Hispanic origin....
ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Nonfarm employment.....Goods-producing......Service-producing....
Average weekly hours:Total private ........Manufacturing........Overtime............
121,786 122,316 122 472 122.924 123.084 160114,587 115.235 115,494 115,878 116,145 267120.053 120,568 120,722 121,175 121,348 173112,854 113,486 113,744 114,129 114,409 280
7,199 7,082 6,978 7,046 6.938 -10862,963 62,899 62,898 62,647 62,621 -26
992 910 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Percent of labor force
5.96.05.25.3
16.15.1
12.58.1
5.85.95.05.2
16.65.0
12.28.5
5.75.84.9
5.216.1.4.9
12.28.1
5.75.85.15.1
16.05.0
12.27.2
5.65.74.95.2
15.44.8
12.68.3
-0.1-.1-.2.1
-.6.-.2.4
. 1.1
________ J _________ I~~~~~~~~~
Thousands of jobs102,278 18I0,293I l03,612 pluiIm pluQ.31'24,8841 25,164 25,259 p25,2
0 4p25,332
77,3941 78,129 78,3531 p78,582 1 p78,985
p)3Ip128p
40
3
Hours of work
34.8 34.8 34.6 p34.
7p3
4:9
40.9 41.2 41.01 p41.1 p
40.
9
3.7 3.9 3.8 p3.9
p3.8_
p0.2p-. 2p. 1
_. , _ A. . . ..
1/ Includes the resident Armed Forces.p-preliminary.
N.A.-not available.
46
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonagricultural payroll employment rose by 530,000 in February,seasonally adjusted, to a level of 104.3 million. This large gain, whichfollowed a much smaller increase in January (175,000). occurred mostly inthe service-producing sector. While construction also advanced,manufacturing was little changed. (See table B-I.)
Within the service-producing sector, employment in the servicesindustry increased sharply (200,000), following a modest rise in January.Job gains were widespread, with health and business services rising by60,000 and 55,000, respectively. Other industries with increases wereretail trade, which rose by 110,000 after seasonal adjustment, andwholesale trade. Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate waslittle changed over the month, although the finance component declined by10,000; this drop represents the first tangible impact on business payrollsof the October stock market crash.
In the goods-producing sector, construction jobs rose by 105,000 afterseasonal adjustment, following a substantial decline in January. Aftershowing large gains in the second half of 1987, manufacturing jobs were uponly slightly for the second month in a row. Changes among the componentindustries were all quite small. Since last June, manufacturing payrollshave added 400,000 jobs. Mining was about unchanged in February.
Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)
The average workweek for all production or nonsupervisory workers onprivate nonagricultural payrolls increased 0.2 hour in February to 34.9hours, seasonally adjusted. By contrast, the manufacturing workweekdeclined 0.2 hour to 40.9 hours, and factory overtime edged down 0.1 hourto 3.8 hours; both measures, however, were still relatively high byhistorical standards. (See table B-2.)
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisoryworkers on private nonagricultural payrolls rose by 0.7 percent to 123.2(1977-100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index slipped to 95.3,reflecting the decline in the factory workweek. (See table B-5.)
Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)
Average hourly earnings of private production or nonsupervisoryworkers edged down by 0.2 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, whileaverage weekly earnings rose 0.4 percent due to the increase in theworkweek. Prior to seasonal adjustment, average hourly earnings incheddown I cent to $9.17, and average weekly earnings rose 58 cents to $316.37.(See table B-3.)
47
The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)
The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 176.5 (1977-100) in February,seasonally adjusted, virtually unchanged from January. For the 12 monthsended in February, the increase was 2.7 percent. In dollars of constantpurchasing power, the HEI decreased 1.0 percent during the 12-month periodending in January. The HEI excludes the effects of two types of changesunrelated to underlying wage rate movements--fluctuations in manufacturingovertime and interindustry employment shifts. (See table B-4.)
The Employment Situation for March 1988 will be released on Friday,April 1, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).
48
Explanatory Note
This news release presents statistics from two major surveys,the Current Population Survey (household survey) and theCurrent Employment Statistics Survey (establishment survey).The household survey provides the information on the laborforce, total employment, and unemployment that appears inthe A tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a samplesurvey of about 59,500 households that is conducted by theBureau of the Census with most of the findings analyzed andpublished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics MUs.
The establishment survey provides the information on theemployment, hours. and earnings of workers onnonagricultural payrolls that appears in the B tables, markedESTABLISHMENT DATA. This information is collectedfrom payroll records by BLS in cooperation with State agencies.The sample includes over 290,000 establishments employingover 38 million people.
For both surveys, the data for a given month are actuallycollected for and relate to a particular week. In the householdsurvey, unless otherwise indicated, it is the calendar week thatcontains the 12th day of the month, which is called the surveyweek. In the establishment survey, the reference week is thepay period including the 12th, which may or may not corres-pond directly to the calendar week.
The data in this release are affected by a number of technicalfactors, including definitions, survey differences, seasonal ad-justments, and the inevitable variance in results between asurvey of a sample and a census of the entire population. Eachof these factors is explained below.
Coverage, definltions, and differencesbetween surveys
The sample households in the household survey are selectedso as to reflect the entire civilian noninstitutional population16 years of age and older. Each person in a household isclassified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.Those who hold more than one job are classified according tothe job at which they worked the most hours.
People are classified as employed if they did any work at allas paid civilians; worked in their own business or profession oron their own farm; or worked 15 hours or more in an enter-prise operated by a member of their family, whether they werepaid or not. People are also counted as employed if they wereon unpaid leave because of illness, bad weather, disputes be-tween labor and management, or personal reasons. Membersof the Armed Forces stationed in the United States are also in-cluded in the employed total.
People are classified as unemployed, regardless of theireligibility for unemployment benefits or public assistance, ifthey meet all of the following criteria: They had no employ-ment during the survey week; they were available for work at
that time; and they made specific efforts to find employmentsometime during the prior 4 weeks. Persons Laid off from theirformer jobs and awaiting recall and those expecting to reportto a job within 30 days need not be looking for work to becounted as unemployed.
The loborforce equals the sum of the number employed andthe number unemployed. The unemploymene rote is thepercentage of unemployed people in the labor force (civilianplus the resident Armed Forces). Table A-S presents a specialgrouping of seven measures of unemployment based on vary-ing definitions of unemployment and the labor force. Thedefinitions are provided in the table. The most restrictivedefinition yields U-I and the most comprehensive yields U-7.The overall unemployment rate is U-5a, while U-5b representsthe same measure with a civilian labor force base.
Unlike the household survey, the establishment survey onlycounts wage and salary employees whose names appear on thepayroll records of nonagriculturl firms. As a result, there aremany differences between the two surveys, among which arethe following:
- The hoehotd survey. thoust hosed an. str sample, rel.eve atarse sment of she populoisn; th. enbthmeen survey crheud arituhur.,the smptyped, unpaid Pfoity ken. peivate hoanehuld kee, uedmeberh or she residen Armed Fames;
- The houshold survey ivuues people on unpaid leav a-Set theeployed: the esuhbliuhmens survey dues not:
- The houehold survey is limbed to shoe 16 years or ou sd olen; theest-blishment ursey is nuo linised by We:
- The houshold survey h. no dupbuiin or individua. hbeuae och idivdua is auted only on: a she euhi shmnlt srvey employees wrhisna atomoe tho one job oe otherrwis appearins an morm iha ona paypen would hevaunted searateey toe -h ppeaea.
Other differences between 'the two surveys are described in"Comparing Employment Estimates from Household andPayroll Surveys," which may be obtained from the BLS uponrequest.
Seasonal adjuatmentOver the course of a year, the size of the Nation's labor
force and the levels of employment and unemploymentundergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events aschanges in weather, reduced or expanded production, har-vests, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools.For example, the labor force increases by a large number eachJune, when schools close and many young people enter the jobmarket. The effect of such seasonal variation can be verylarge; over the course of a year, for example, seasonality mayaccount for as much as 95 percent of the month-to-monthchanges in unemployment.
49
Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regularpattern each year, their influence on statistical trends can beeliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month.These adjustments make nonseasonal developments, such asdeclines in economic activity or increases in the participationof women in the labor force, easier to spot. To return to theschool's-out example, the large number of people entering thelabor force each June is likely to obscure any other changesthat have taken place since May, making it difficult to deter-mine if the level of economic activity has risen or declined.How.ver, because the effect of students finishing school inprevious years is known, the statistics for the current year canbe adjusted to allow for a comparable change. Insofar as theseasonal adjustment is made correctly, the adjusted figure pro-vides a more useful tool wish n-hich to analyze changes ineconomic activity.
Measures of labor force, employment, and unemploymentcontain components such as age and sex. Statistics for allemployees, production workers, average weekly hours, andaverage hourly earnings include components based on theemployer's industry. All these statistics can be seasonally ad-justed either by adjusting the total or by adjusting each of thecomponents and combining them. The second procedureusually yields more accurate information and is thereforefollowed by ass.s. For example, the seasonally adjusted figurefor the labor force is the sum of eight seasonally adjustedcivilian employment components, plus the resident ArmedForces total (not adjusted for seasonality), and four seasonallyadjusted unemployment components; the total for unemploy-ment is the sum of the four unemployment components; andthe overall unemployment rate is derived by dividing theresulting estimate of total unemployment by the estimate ofthe labor force.
The numerical factors used to make the seasonal ad-justments are recalculated regularly. For the householdsurvey, the factors are calculated for the January-June periodand again for the July-December period. The January revisionis applied to data that have been published over the previous 5sears. For the establishment sursey, updated factors forseasonal adjustment arc calculated only once a year, alongwith the introduction of ne- benchmarks which are discussedat the end of the nest section.
Sampling varIabilityStatistics based on the household and establishment surseys
are subject to sampling error, that is, the estimate of thenumber of people employed and the other estimates drawnfrom these surveys probable differ from the figures that wouldbe obtained from a complete census, esen if the same question-naires and procedures were used. In the household survey, theamount of the differences can be expressed in terms of stand-ard errors. The numerical value of a standard error dependsupon the size of the sample. the results of the survey. and otherfactors. Honeser, the numerical value is always such that thechances are approximasely 680 out of 100that an estimate basedon hr sample n-ill differ by no more than the standard error
from the results of a complete census. The chances are approx-imately 90 out of 100 that an estimate based on the sample willdiffer by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from theresults of a complete census. At approximately the 90-percentlevel of confidence-the confidence limits used by asS in itsanalyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ-ment is on the order of plus or minus 328,000; for totalunemployment is is 220,000; and, for the overall unemploy-ment rate, it is 0.19 percentage point. These figures do notmean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes but.rather, that the chances are approximately 90 out of 100 thatthe "true" level or rate would not be expected to differ fromthe estimates by more than these amounts.
Sampling errors for monthly surveys are reduced when thedata are cumulated for several months, such as quarterly orannually. Also, as a general rule, the smaller the estimate, thelarger the sampling error. Therefore, relatively speaking, theestimate of the size of the labor force is subject to less errorthan is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, amongthe unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rate ofadult men, for example, is much smaller than is the error forthe jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthlychange in the jobless rate for men is .26 percentage point; forteenagers, it is 1.25 percentage points.
In the establishment survey, estimates for the 2 most currentmonths are based on incomplete returns; for this reason, theseestimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all thereturns in the sample have been received, the estimates arerevised. In other words, data for the month of September arepublished in preliminary form in October and November andin final form in December. To remove errors that build upover time, a comprehensive count of the employed is con-ducted each year. The results of this survey are used toestablish new. benchmarks-comprehensive counts ofemployment-against which ssionth-to-month changes can bemeasured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changes inthe classification of industries and allosv for the formation ofnew establishments.
Additional statistics and other InformationIn order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employ-
ment situation, Ba S regularly publishes a wide variety of datain this news release. More comprehensive statistics are contain-ed in Fnplovmnenf and Earnings. published each month-byHA s. It is available for$8.50per issue or522.00per year fromshe U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,20204. A check or money order made out to the Superinten-dent of Documents must accompany all orders.
Essplosinent and Earnings also provides approximations ofthe standard errors for the household survey data published inthis release. For unemployment and other labor forcecategories, the standard errors appear in tables B through J ofits "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reliability of thedata drawn from the establishment survey and the actualamounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments are pro-v ided in tables M. 0. P. and Q of that publication.
50
HOUSEHOLD DATA
T.86 A-1. Eoty,. Ust. co It. pew.PftU kk4M A-d For1. 1Its Lod 5. , by As
(NUB6 b hand I
HOUSEHOLD DATA
F.. J b F OD. I | Fb.F
1987 IM 19 1987 1987 19811987 Ing
TOTAL I
Nol85t55uoft5 P9941 1...73...55. M71 185.705 583.738 185,052 185.225 185,370 185.571 i 185.705
L.bo- 10-6 1 19.70 121.491 121.678 120.9701122,128B 122.348 122.472 122.924 123.084
Pa,-4a 1kn ............................. ........ 8. 52 80.5 85.5 85.8 88. 88.1 88. 68.2 88.Total .op yed ............. 4 115.888 14.194 113.0841I114.851 1 15.250 1 15.484 1 15.878 1 18.145
ERPO p n _ r4Di 80.5 81.4 81.5 5 2 82. 82.3 84 82.9866,685 .0d6 0 -FS . .................... ........... 1740 1.740 1,738 1.740 1,741 1.755 1.780 1.740 1.7380c. O OY ................. .. 44 112,139 112,458 1 .34 1113.210 113.504 113.744 114.125 114.409
Asno . ....i .................................... 2.784 3,785 2.780 3.2251I 3.249 3.172 3.215 3.39 3,226^ ''''G.it'':I WI . .:: ........................:.:.....::::::::: 108,700 109,350 100,700 18119 109.81 110.332 110.529 1I038 111,182
Uneelployed 8 8,53 7.003 7,482 7.888 7.177 7.90 9,978 7.048 8,82
Uneolploole l e r .................... ............ 7.1 8.3 8.1 8.5 j, 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.8N9 t 1b hbr h o . . ......... ....................... 8.4825. 84.031 84,028 8.788 8 6 2. 924 82.878 82.698 82,847 62.821
humalle1 y6 6 88.
N.o1. Aj pOpAbO .................. 8, 8. ........... 0.. e e.o s es33 89 I,099 0 8 .756 58 '84 I 88.924 89.033 89.099Labor 10106` 98.809 67.410 67.4e4 67.655 87.7 9e1 ee.00 ' e 243 74
P61560900.1816 .........'. .................... 75.9 75.7 75.7 7&8. 78.8 78.8 78.5 78.8 78.7Toaw aepowt&............ :d'................ 861.21 83.048 632.252 63.281 I 4.048 04.174 84,245 84.396 84.636
ERPdl-,tAmwdle q 1680. . 70.3 70.8 71.0 71.9 72.2 72.2 722 72.3 7|z5
9.1646, A-d F. . ...........F................ .1. .594 1,599 1.577 1.8 1 1580 1.593 1.589 1.569 1 577Ci o - gd ............. 337 _ , .... 7 ........... 60337 61.456 6167 61 .8697 6248 251 82 58 Q 6 8 0309
UneAod ... . . . 4,978 4.384 4.232 4.374 3.8a99 3845 3a785 3a647 3.707UnelPwoy16 t ra......................... ........ 7.4 8.5 8.3 8.5 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4
womm le Y-d t w
No.161tw.S ... .p4....... s95839 98.538 986.806 00.639 96295 98,376 98,446 953 9S,06
P0- fw100 .. 52.909 54.062 54.195 53,315 54s1i1 54,330 54,442 54.681 54.740p~b..b. 1.w ........... . .............................. 3..5...4 558.4 58.8 409.7 1 W
TP018ow158 86 -5.2 5. 58.1~ 557W 0.903 5.085 51.249 51.482 51.500Ro~pl~oota'0-p88ota580 1656' . 51.5 52.7 5os22.7 I 52.1 5.Z9 53.0 52.91 53.3 53.3
R.ederMtA..dpoF . .............................. 158 581 1591 158 0181l 182 181 581 109Cr8 60606 -....... - 49.126 58.061 50.785 49647 .742 50.923 51,099 51.221 51,350
UnbrpY~d ......... 5..7 3239 . 32. 1 .512 .3.278 .. 0. 359 0 s e 3200 3.231
Th* PoP. o Ad F s fig- a_. n-ot dt todr 'Labor tore. 86 prCent O th. - Po-
11.0,d. n . 1 0,. A.rd Fo tb5.d b Ih Utoted A46. Foro.el
0t88
51
HOUSJ9929LD DATA
T.W9 A-2 .6byl..l W. of W. 6d~ PW-al 66*60W - -
(0444668 6. au.%)
HOUSEHOLD DATA
FW6 J&n. Fb. 4. 0b19. -96 Om is. FW61967 1969 196 1967 1967 1967 1967 196 996
TOTAL
0666 w*96l6Ab Pp .s .............. 5161m 193,63 83 19.69 161.996 16 31 193.470 193.62%) 163.92 ;83.9690666 I" I ... . ------. 17.967 119.742 119.942 119.20 21).39 12D,084 120.722 121.1715 121.149
P 199 _ _ _ _ 64.9 69.1 69. 6.5. 66.7 965.7 65.7 66.9 G6ap109.466 lI13512 112490 111.344 113,210 113.204 113,744 114.120 I"440
6,l61n*.9op~6n1.64.......,.....,......,....,..........., 60.1 61.0 61.1 61.2 61.9 61.9 61.9 62.1 62.219196*. 8 950 7.903 7.462 7.99 7.177 7.09 6,979 7,049 6.M
WL Mbyl m ll.. .......- -----.---. . 7.2 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.0 59 5.9 5.9 5.7
NW% 960. y69 &W o
DWI6. -*4696.669p091 .2.. 79.251 9012D 96,29 79.216 79.667 79.095 90,002 9012D 902004.6 Ib I4.- el. 9.549 62.03 63.20 61.930 62.211 62.299 92.48 62.440 62.06
P~~kk~~ft M - T 7.7 77.4 77.6 79.2 79.0 79.0 77.a 77.9 78.26116199.4 . . .~~~~~~~~~~~~. . . . 9~~~~7.356 56 .357 96.626 06.34 59 .037 19.164 59.165 56.267 69 .629
E.160o01d..9.690i06n 950 ............. 72.4 72.9 7.1 73.6 74.0 74.1 74.0 74.0 7423A019j64.2.961~. ...... ...... ....... .. : a 2.077 2,0327 2.3176 Z343 Z2.97 Z2926 2.32 2.26
No.Wblk.0kdfi 9446.9. .......................... 55.59 56.29 56.599 96.007 56.694 56.967 56.897 56.964 67.34UnV661.dO.WW.. 4.1932 3.674 3.57a 3.9106 3.174 3.135 3.96 3,154 3,071
Un.9601w 6191 aia~ 6.6 6.9 05.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.9
W--%*,. 2D ..6 .90 -.-
066M W.9614 pop.66............6... .. ..... . 96.537 99.110 99.1M 88.237 99.643 9.93 69.010 99,110 66.1790661w kh9 f9... ............................... . . 49.148 60.317 00.407 49.34 50.095 50,254 50,361 00.599 10.649
P90dp.t5. ..... 19...... ...... 5.7 96.6 5695 55.9 59.4 56.5 56.6 56.7 96,.... . ... ....... 4.... .. ...... 49.33 47.633 47,714 49,495 47,496 47.634 47,750) 47.V77 49.00
E.1619,111114.966.i6906 46106'...., , ~~~~~52.4 5395 93.5 52.7 53.4 53.6 93.9 53A9 93.9A 35 52b02 54 96736 64 691 6N11Wb46,.a f18461.6 45,967 47.09 47.162 45,651 49.944 49.996 47.107 47,3 47,5
LA.- --------- 2.91-- Zol 2.694 2.693 2.93 2.615 Z2.90 2.611 2.581 2.65U,.V..K..... .......69 . ................... 5.9 5.3 5.3 06a 5.2 5.2 5.2 2.1 6.2
3.0,0.996 1696o Iti...
0666 l9 ..4 !6PMi6 . . 14,549 14.592 14.596 14.646 149061 94,99 14,90 14.99 14,596O l W. 6409 . .. 7.271 7.394 7.331 7.957 6.061 8.041 9.113 8.177 "II1
P k~~~aft~ M... 0.0 00,7 50.2 54.7 501 64.9 50.9 59.0 64.9F, ~ ~ ~~ . . 5,075 9.150 9.12D 8.535 9.993 9.706 SAM 9.969 9.779
Eo~p06y.-9.9pop*M. .1.0..... 40.4 42.1 42.0 44.9 45.7 45.7 46.6 47.0 49........ ......... ................. 199 173 1ei 274 270 239 274 323 233
N069W654
669 6.6k96n.9. ................ ...... ...... 5.707 5,977 5.939 6.261 9.423 9.497 6,95 96,42 9.496U669960696 I=.. . - . .9 1.244 1,211 1.422 1.39 1,335 1354 1.312 12323
191960996W6 MU ........... 1923 19.9 16.0 17.9 17.2 19.6 161 19.0 15.4
Th p5 ao.0969*966 - M5 9469.4 W 0696.1d o.1509 '06669660- 16.1 - P.-461 of 09. 946 6a 99.86.66 . .469 u649.69 pp646 06 099 ,*4dU4 44 6960y 900-WN 6.-
52
HOUSEHOLD DATA
TWO A Ertwynm M. c Dt dm pfe*Pdoi by ea, a, age, mi Iapa omigin
(NUBe M th A dso
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Eaplaytimit atO& ~ ~ N"t mi
I "'0"M. IE n n aitI- - l ma s I 8
WHITE
A n I t P-euo ...........-.. ---- --Co tv. ..... Ie._
Pttfrnui rat . ....Ensyoud .. .. .. ................
EOmtowymfpoia n Wt ...m............... ._ ____Unblploed . ............. . ... ._ .__Uo.rp...me.t rate
n, 20 yv- mid ew nCK0a Itt bt rItt a ........... ._
PAr .t o .rate ......... _Er yd .... _ _ _
E1m rtaoly ittSen too. ..................m ' .U l l y d .................... _
ur nt ..yt .t ..............
I 431101.60t
62.195.317
61.06,432
6.3
S3,84078.1
So .54073.3
3,3006.1
Waen 20 Ya0a I -CMI.rn labor oro. ........... 41.639
Popetior .rate ......... 55.1Emplwyd .. . _ .395761
E orW Po ao m . .................. __ .......... 523 1U ..re .............. _ _. 2062
0uft. Wbe I . ............... ._ ....... .... ...... .S..........Uooyo omrr rats . 0.0 9
CoS ien labor tor.e .. .. . 6.330
Emplroed . .... _ ................... 44.21Erryloyrrati pooiso moo' .44.2
Urenrployad . 1.070Lloayrrptooraol ras.18.8M.o ....... .18.9Wore .. ...... . .. _ 14.8
CWao a.a 1 pogAor ............................................ 20.218Corbn Ibnrb or. ........... _ . 12. 66
Petomeo roa . . .62.8Employed 10.*72EplWoIrt.Po ....... mo . . 0. 53.8
Uo Roloyd ............. _ ..__ .. 1.824Ulor et . ............ ... _ _ . _ 14.4
Mm.% 20y) mi- eveC torte ................. 5. .7
P~arbtoono nrae 74.0
Employmtrppsoo moo' . . 4.5- 0neysd .................. ................... 781Ur. *I.by lt , ............................... 12.8
Wea 20 ya md oveCirha . .labor or.e.. . .......... 5. 1
Psrm6oa0n8n . . ._59.5Ero .................. ... . 5.218
EntltrrttltetcpPraon r moo'...51.9Ulirrdwl m p p f ~ o ....................... .... ..773..... 5
U r ..r . .ra ... ..................... .9
Wi -m seu18 lo 19 y-Coi 5 h0 . .. . ............ ..... . . 778
OmoPsnoti rats . . ..................-... 21Enwrlyad .............. .. .. _48 1
Emorramo r .s ............m. 22.71Uoeo'0oved 2...... .. .. .0.Ueim ra.e .............. _._... _ . 32,
M .. ............. ......... _._ . 38.3W Y _. _............. ......... _ ...... ...... ......... 38.2
J- FW
157.876 157,77303b12D 10332
55.4 05.597.311 07*18
81.7 82o5.809 5.577
5.6 0.4
54,135 5426677.6 77.8
51.220 51.7I73.5 74.0
2.914 2.7175.4 5.0
42.54 42,74855.0 56.1
406310 40,78053.3 53.5
1.825 1.864.5 4.6
6.44 6X3154.2 53.75.4S1 5.48846.1 45.296D 88314.9 14.01.3 14*
13.4 132
20.039 20.58912,957 12.965
63.1 63.0,,,417 11.25855.6 54.9
1.500 l,67802.0 12z
6.028 8.08474.0 74.75.386 5035286.2 80.8631 742
O.S 12Z2
6.18* 6.11480.6 50.7
0.028 5.4D254.1 53.4
e61 65210.7 00.7
749 75734.5 34.6482 47322.7 21.62571 25434.4 3705
352' 42.33.5' 32.5
.11;6,431102=20
65.797.001
ezo
5.8240.7
54.12178.5
5128674.5
2,7555.1
41,79055.3
395.755
402S
4.8
6.92450.1
49.41.04415.116.014.1
2021812894
63.81 1.095
54.81808
14.0
74.9
98.071311.9
6.200550.7
5.24952.275612.6
993
25.6 1339
38.037.839.0
157.342i03.6f
Gs.86317
62.50.352
5.2
54,37578.4
51 im74.8
2,5114*.
4z37350.7
40,530533
1.8414.3
6.91057.8509148.0
1.00014.0
13.8
20 4013.152
64.311.556
56.5
tON12.1
6.02374.3
5.43187.0
S929.8
6.11780.754^9554.068211.0
8923.81
I 3D129.0322.
33*32.535.2
056. I04 � T2�L1rI
FNW. ID-_
57.448 107,552 19I778103.731 103.807 104252
88.9 68.0 68.196.492 96.779 80.044
82.6 827 62e85239 5.128 I'20
5.1 4.9 5.0
54.381 54.368 54,45578.3 762 76.3
or,868 52.046 03.0374. 74.9 74.8
2,412 2.322 Z4024.4 4 .3 4.4
43.454 42.569 42.71055.8 55.0 56.1
40.606 40.712 40*89653.4 53.5 03.7
1.656 1.857 1.134.4 4.4 4.2
e.8s8 6.s70 7.06757.7 50.8 08.8
0.917 6.021 6,09548.8 50.6 51.2s8 6949 992141 1 13.8 14.014 04 14.413.3 12.3 136
20,482 20.506 20.53913,193 13215 13.22
64.4 64.4 64.411.589 11.805 11.601
5.6 56.6 s5.1I604 1.010 1*14122 12.2 12.2
6.045 6.043 6.11074.5 74.3 75.0
5.430 5,430 5,497Go. 86* 87.0e6s 613 6810102 10.1 10.1
6.207 6.224 6244I80e . i al. 61.1
5.537 5,5441 5 054.3 54.3 54.3670 680 69410.1 10.98 ll.
941' 848 8s343.3 43.7 39.6e2 631 56126. 20.0 25.8318 317 30233.9 33.4 35.0a232 32. 30.130* 33.* 34.9
104,638683
99.47483.0
4.*
54.8007605
75.2
4.1
42.91556.3
40.08503.0
4.5
6.860650.68.6
6,10051.3880
1.212.7
20,06813,168
64.01 I.504
55.9i.es
6.16575.5.47287.189411.3
8.13159.9
5.49503.7
10.4
87040.003724.7333382342.034.7
Feb.IO
Se fotnomt aI Ed 0o Ebe.
53
HOUJSEHOLD DATA
T~ 6.3. Eo.pW1¶¶.¶ tW. 08 U. d~U P.Pkd.¶9 bY ¶986-, -M~ 064" 1.p~ ~unC.¶16-040i6 e¶ 01.0.lb)
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Not -.0601 9-19 811y9461Eoplopo..t_ y .50.r_9. 9. 1 _
wgm F jE. Fd. Fb. O.L N .. | 068 JF.1967 ¶98 19im 67 197 1967 J 1967 I968 ¶960
HISPANIC ORKUN
On0 - On~ PD 0................... ..... ......... ............. 1Z6B2 13.115 131, s s Ze s 13 003 13, 0z3 13,082 13,15s 13.153
End" _b.__________ ................... ___.____. ..... .... ........ ... ..^ B... ......... 9 A29 875 6:G 81 0 8,6 6.13 872 82ee .oPEn _n6i . ......... 5............... _____...... .. .. .... 65. e 6.6 67.7 6.4 66.6 672 67.1 67.7 68 6E.9bo¶d 7.445 6.040 6.086 7.614 7"85 I7.876 8.058 8.3 6.268E'¶0o¶¶¶.l-o~h~ W8 587 61.3 61.5 68.0 61.0 61.2 6l.6 62.6 62.9
__.W.d __ _ 884 716 820 808 719 785 714 842 748U106¶1p685.0..... ...... .......... 8 82 92 [. e 9.0 8., 1 72 8.3
'Th. pqibn f8g .n nol 4 to, 84 0916 Pvi ¶0a .f8. d16115191 0 v_ n a. r*wd .4 NOTE: DOM la 0h. .b0- -9d HM¶i* -910 00 noi
069 8818801 01 - 8. ¶to8t _ dn9 r U. "880 WW" 911. Wl p_.0C1~ -vwfl-,a P-m f a. dw. 11~~~~ - .kdd i. bM 90U 8 tft4W b11k 6,19.1 gop.~
C-t"M kd~~~bJ~l. ~ 6 08.L 14N.. I D. J-8 F96F¶. ¶98 - 9se 1907 1967 1967 1967 1988 1988
CHARACTEtISTIC
C8.El9, .pW0888.d 18 y.91 9, .0 ....................... 108,464 112.130 ¶12.480 11 1.24 113,210 113.504 113.744 114.128 114.4599d - P- P---- | 38 3594 40.0 39.88 39.858 40.556 40.845 40 711 460.44 40.475
M.Ti.d o~¶. W- 519 -72 615 2.7 27.837 28.068 28.175 28.248 28.441 28.707Woo.. f. l0~ .098 ....... ................. 5.824 8.174 8.157 5.925 6.178 .378.2 27 & 8.168 8.157
MAJOR DEJTRY AND CLASS OF WORKER
Wqp . ., y 8.9. 05.16............................: 1.375 1.368 1,407 1.840 1.705 1.595 1.508 1.8666 1.677S.6.¶P18980 . . . . .. 12897 1;.325 1.274 1440 1.430 1.407 1.450 1.454 1.414
Undl f.. ..... . ... 5 78..3..140.1............ .3 114
W N. h d .6Y6-7 .5.. 96 *4s 101 .05 101.341 998772 101.52 101943 ¶01997 02.507 10oz83000800.80 ..........~~~~~~~~~~ . .. ~1:858789 17.14 ¶7.270 16.553 17.033 7.118 1706 ¶7.7 1.4
PwM id 071 . .- ......-. ........- ... 81..78. .. 51 84.071 62.218. 84. 489 8.625 8.89723e3 85 5310 80573.5P¶¶,19.f ho..441140... ........................ .... 1128 1.071 1.067 1.213 ¶.m 1.288 1._0 1.147 1.170Oh. 1.10.0.... .. ...... . 0440 82.780 82.984 8200 832.287 83.539 83.733 84.163 84.580
S.0a..Pioy4d Ik.1.. 805 .7 8.008 8.140 8,168 8.274 8.222 8288 8.15 8.312U q d I y ". . .............. 2............2............................4 37 22
PERSOIIS AT WORK PART TIME'
P5 tw5 .14 or.1 99.1 . ......... . 5583 5.354 5.377 5.766 5.23' 552 528 5.36 5.50SA~k d011k 28092 2.683 2.681 2.501 23277 2.406 2284 26 2.478
Co.Ed 0* 1408 0 e 2. 548 2.405 2.290 2.773 2.855 2.856 26286 2.840 2.5s
Vd0 W wn ........... .... _.__.__........ .. 4947 4,06 5.440 4.110 4.406 4.523 4.711 14.571 4.572
P f .... ...................... - 5. 5.191 5.17 5.450 5,06 I8 5241 5.004 5145 54S1900 -k1 2.406 2.527 2.504 2.315 I 2,186! 2.209 2.111 2.280 2.7C..doo01 ..................... 2501 2,302 2.282 2.88 255' 257 2.552 2.506 2.457
e ;k019y788116r . .. 14535 14,491 15.055 73,635 14011 i 140'4' ¶4222* 14.08 ¶4.123
E,.9 p10 4 0 pD hb11 09 05 01 0. 880,0f04 -fi - . -- en .9 cri.id0 dl
' 54
HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA
TS A-S Rarng if ulnmvnn lnmm san io nW560 dabtln if uwtlna and It Inane bi. auinnlly adoitac
0-iY yiDa I MaNly dat
_~~~-~
U-1 Po. wM 15 as or on. a a prnt of E.onula.I.rforo ................................................................ 1.9 1.8 1.7 6.. 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
UL2 Joto n pr a tol. tona.nlab3I 3 .3.......26.7.27 26.2................................ __ ..._ 3.3 362 3.0 .7 2.7U-3 Unrd PDa 25 ya d o -r . Pe of t.n
oia I ...r... ...... ............ .. _ . _ ._.__ ... 5.4 5.1 4.6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .5 4.5Ul Unlrsyad 59-mu iftink-n n a pDecn at
St.&bm -A6w labor bw . . .. ... .. ... ....... ...... 6.5 62 5.9 5.6 5.5 5A. 5.4 5.3U-Si Tita tnpyWd "a pinct if E laor hf
e g U k r nt Arm.d F. ....................................................................... .8 6.5 52 S. 5.8 5.7 57 5U-St Totl ana Ir nad - a P it thn I t ft. ..................f6........................... .8 s6 6.3 .0 5 .9 s. | s.e 5.7U4 Total fHU-Sn tmn iaka Pk. 1/2 Pin-b 0Ebnkmn Ph.
1/2 totl an i n D- nanr o pnc ofEn -fctl.i hbot W a o 1/2 Ef U. p iu labor tor . ..... . .................. 5.5.. ..................... 9.2 9.0 e .s 8 2 e .1 B . 0 8.0 8.0
U.7 Tots, t r jlobnn PIk. 1/2 PDt-tn JobbikaPk. 1/2 totI an Dil omrn W.r Wio ri Pk. tiagdnrkis - i p oi f it Ean hlbor for Dik p_orga oon 1- n 1/2 o1 En pa- lr torfai. . -..... ,02 9.9[5.3 90 |8.8 NA NA. NA
NA oat anirata.
Tibta A-. SIatd anampnynt ttalcatnwn -. y adkcatd
Fad. Ji1987 1988
CHARACTERISTIC
Tot, I Y -an .o ...................................... 7.6 s 7,046Ma- .to 9-n .................... ....................... * 374 3.847Ma'% 20 nd o . ..................................... 3,006 3.154Wo 1a. 1 -I O .. .a...............................2......... 352 32Wor 20 i ed . ...... ................................. . 2s85 2 56tE-M -. 10 b) 19 Y. ............................................... 1.422 1 312
Marrled inn 4na Drint.I........................... . .73. 1.AssMartha nornm ooaraic . 739 1.239Wo d u r .... ...................... .30U9Wowho ..t .- b. ..................... an e os
FLO-SU ortk .o......6.................................... ,397 5.603Porlfim -or, ........................................................... 1.477 1U6Lab torn i o . e ......................I................o.
INDUSTRY
Noanopnit, ora,. ag a ty crkn ................... _. s3 529?Goodi d cag a c -. .3.....................t...............3
MI ......... 114......................... 63.t.n i ..o ...................................... . .................-.-.-. 727' 7621
lA.W aCh . . .................-- ....................... 1,2091D-b. od ..................................... ess......1. 704iNodrabla 5D0 . . .0..............I'll-,..........1 599 i 50S
S5rno doag cabs --i---............................ 1. 5391 3257'TaIponuiaon -1 PlL lit .ai....................................... 254 1 231 1wulani . . .. .......ca .. .... ... .6.. t 438Fo=a n and nu ii m on ................................. 1616 1 es
G annrornmnt ano 623 s5sAgntl unaa an .i ........t................ _oa..r - 202 217
I I Rngabit
Fio. Fit. Oct No. Dic. . J- I bi196a | 19t7 1987 17 1987 198
3.707 0.6 1.o 5. 57 5. 56
3.07e17 5. 5.1 5.0 49 . , 5.1 s.93.231 6.6 6?e 6.0 eo ss ' 5.92.63 5.0 5.2 5.2 I 52 5.1 9.2t.23, 17.9 172 j 6.6 16.1 16.0 ISA
.428 4t 3.7 3.5 3A . 3. 33 a1.26 4.8 4.2 4,2 4.3 4,2 4.7557 9.6 | e. 6.s 8 .9 68.3
5.940 6.2 5.6 5.5 .1 5.4 53I379 6.0 6.3 , 6.2 6.0 8.3 I 7.9
- 7.5 6.1 6.0 6.6 e 6.6 6.6
5,1751 6.6 5.9 5.60 5.7 s.6 ' 9.71.9921 0 7.0 6 6A 7.1 o.ee6e 13.0 6 - 7.0 . is 7.7 7.9
1 750 11.7 I 172 tO.6 10.6 12.2 17.01 i.226i 6.8 575 5.67031 IS7 , 52 4. 4.8 5.5 .
463 8.9 65 59 5. 5.0 5.33.I62i 5. 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.1
2361 I1 4 4 4.5 4 6 3.6 3.61.478 7.2 6.5 6.6 6.2 6.1 61.470 5.2 4.7 4*8 4.0 .9 4.54e3 3.6 33 34 3. '2 3.c 3.8191 11.0 15.8 ¶7.I 10.9 11.5 10.2
n UanlYnct nn pa rt 7 E nin bor UP.IAgg 9gta hiuo bt by En inWrod InD pDn a-n D WSn Ir
a r rla. onn an -p ..n0 -otlonoy aooiitaa lanorce morn.
55
HOUSEH8OLD DATA
TOM. A.7. Du1008888-00 16
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Not dmdy .40048od ~ o~
W~~~k. .9 ~~~Fob. J-n Fob. Fob. Ca1 N401. 0.8 .J- Fob.1867 196 1988 1887 1967 1967 1867 188 INS8
DURATION
L-ooS 065 .60k8 ...... ........................... 3.216 3.39 2,973 3.343 332 3.218 3220 30868 38066S8I0 14 000k8 -... . .................. . ........... .. 957 2,397 2.602 2.44 2.08 .029 18968 Z2.33 2145I5 ..00 804 08. .............................. 2.328 1.811 1.807 2.128 1.881 1.834 1.781 ,733 1,748
151I026868 ... .... ... ......... 1.186 804 877 10804 844 88n 882 838 84127 01190008 . 1.163 907 938 1.125 057 835 888 884 888
A-.p J-) &..bM . -.k. ~ ~ 4. 13.8 14.3 14.8 14.1 1480 14.3 14.4 14.4M~~dW. d..bM i. .k 7.4 6.2 7.1 8.7 8.2 81 8.0 84 8.4
PERCEN8T Dt5TR88UT50N
T8.1 .-oop1ovd . ..... . . ............... ~ 8. 1 80.0Iw 1880 108. 1280 108.8 108.0 128.0 1880Looft.Oo 5 ..k. ........................................ 37.8 44. 3.7 422 45.3 45.4 48.2 43.8 44.S W1481-k0. ......... .. 34......8 31.5 34.8 38.8 29.4 28.7 28.2 31.9 38.8IS .k.. . ... 488 . -.-........ . 2,7.4 23.8 20.5 28.8 25.3 25.8 25.8 24.5 25.015ID020 .008 . ... ................................. 13.7 11.8 13.1 12. 1 1.8 12.7 12.6 I11.8 12.127 wook . 80 . ...................... -.............. 13.7 11.8 12.4 14. 1. 132 12.8 12.8 12.8
Fob. k.1.. Fob. Fo. Ca1 ~N.. 008 301 Fob.1867 19888 1888 1867 1987 1967 1986 168 1888
UNUMBER OF UNEMPLODYED
J.00 I. . . ... ............ .. ................ . .... 4.488 3.770 3.738 3.835 3.388 3.37 3.308 3.20 3.0701118700 , . ..... ..... ..... 1.335 1.272 1.181 1.001 844 878 856 888 884001. 001 ... ....... ... ... ........... ...... ... 3,134 2.486 2.586 2Z834 2.44 2.429 2.344 2.33 2.323
Job8 I. ..... ............................. ......... 1,008 1.133 888 1.033 860 828 848 1.082 961R.065 .......... ...................... . ............... 2.088 1.840 1.074 2.038 1.845 1.874 1.945 1.817 1.981N146w .0.1 .................................... 8 .... 18 758 783 1.007 814 859 909 885 884
PERCEN8T 82I7T1882UT31
TOW18i ononpiosd .................................. ..... 108.0 180.0 108.0 180.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0J.10 I... . ...........o....o....n...:.......... ... . 83.8 49.8 08.0 48.5 47.7 48.8 45.7 45.2 45.8
On Wy1............... ........... ... . 15.7 18.7 15.8 12.7 13.3 12.4 12.2 12.5 12.088608j0ob ...........----- 38.8 32.8 34.2 35.8 34.4 34. 33. 32.7 33.3
Jo .1010 .8............ ....................... . 12.4 14.9 13.2 12.1 13.5 121 1.0 15.3 13.8Ro~~~~~~~~~o~~~~~oO. ..........--...... . 24.2 25.5 28.4 28.8 28., 20 27.8 27.0 27.8
Now6800- .9 ..f . ..-- … 10.8 10.0 10.4 12.7 12.8 12.1 12.0 12.5 12.4
UNEMPLOYED AS A PERC830T OF 7508CFIUAN LABOR FORCE
J0810I.0......................................... . 3.8 2:.2 3.1 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.8J08 I. ........................ .8.......................8 .8 .9 .0 .8 .8 .9 .880 88 01 ............................................ 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.814008801............................................ 8 .8, .7 .8p .8 .7 .8 .7 .7
56
HOUSEHOLD DATA
TOM A.& UwVbo"d p- by .. W g., - N
HOUSEHOLD DATA
N-b. of
P-
Fb. J- Fb. Fd, Oct N.. D- J- Fb.IBS? 19W IM 1957 1987 1087 1987 IM 19BO
Totmi. 16 yms old v- .. ......................................... ... ...... ..... 7 7 045 6.18 to 24 y . .... .... .............. .... ........... ::: . ............... . .......... 3,015 2:659 Z525 I 10 I 1.6 11.1
Ia 1. I 9 y . ... ....... ........ :,: . .............. .. ............... ......... 1.422 1.312 1.232 1 7 17 : 16.6 I&I 16.70 15.4to 117 ym s ................... ......... . ....... ........................ .... ..... 672 an 560 1 17.8 I&1:, 20.4 19.2 �7to gy . ....................... ............... .................................. 764 N O N O .4 14.7 14.8 14. CS 3.9
20 1. 24 yw l ......... ............................... .......................... ....... 1.5.3 347 12N 5,425 Y, 4,179 :"I loI...... 4 :: 4 4 4.5 4.554 y . ..... ......... .................................. 4.421 3.096 S'S 4.8 4.7 4.25 1. 3:...,. 4.7 4�75s 3.1 3.4 3.2- d � ................................................................. 463 527l, 499 3 3 5 3
M. 16Y- M . ............................................... 4.374 3.847 3,707 a ':9 2.80 ':' -16' to 24 y� ..................... I 12 1 I' I '1�; 2 2 1 '1:3
1 6 to 19 y . .. ............ 768 693 an is 5 17.4 17.2 17.2 S. 51: to 117 y . ....................................................................... 365 346 285 20:5 20.9 20.4 19.3 9.4 6.9
to 9 yw o .................. .................................... 408 360 354 ;7 14 8 14.8 15.3 14.9 1 14.7
Mto 24 V . ................................. ............... .. ... 576 753 697 0. gi 92 8.7 9.9 9.025 Y- M . ........................................................ ..... ....... 2.747 2.391 2,390 5.1 4.5 4.4 44 4.4 4.32S I. 54 yw l ...... ........................ ............. ...... ......... .... 2.456 2.070 2.095 5:4 4.8 4A 4.6 4.S 4.555 Y- .4 ow ................................ ..................... . .... ...... 306 351 305 34 3'1 3.5 32 4 0 3.4
W--M 16 YWl VW 0- ............. ...................... ..................... 3,512 3.200 3.231 6.6 6.1 6.0 S.. 5'9 5.916 to 24 y . ......... .. . ............:........................ . 1.371 1= 1.192 12.4 11.5 112 10.7 10.9 10A
Ia 1. le y . .. ... ........ .......................... .... .654 Ole S96 �7, I6.0 1421 62 5:: a.o30 I 17Ito 17 yw l ..... ...................... ............... .... 7 290 295 I. 7.9
to 9 V ................ .......... .. ..... ........... ... 346 329 301 .7 14.5 141 14.1 14.1 13.120 4 y. ..................... ...................... 717 554 506 ... 1.5 ..6 8.4 1-2 ..425 Y_ M . .............. 4.7
t02 � :,.:: Z132 2.002 2.026 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.725 to 54 y� ........... . 1.965 1,826 1.831 S.5 4.9 44 4.9 4.9 4.955 yms wW . ............. .......... . .................... .......... 163 175 194 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.1
U-91ft-I P�M of th. -lb. Ib. f-
T.bM A-10. E.Oft-M OMW Of bt..k M W-
(Nuft- 1. V.-ft)
Hot "---WY -dKww 8- - -
F.. JM Fb. Fb. Om N- D.. J- F..'987 195a 1908 1967 1987 1987 1987 1988 Iwo
CAft. -- Wtub" pm"bm ................................. ................ 25.587 2&146 26,196 25.567 25.969.26.021 21,= 25 1466 25 96CWA. Woo, I . ............................................................ 0 le-an 16-5" 16.361 16.755116.8M le, 15:92 16:�q
P.-ddp.ti.. � ...................... ........................ . :........... 1%1352 I 64.i 1,64.5 - .7 I 64.7 04.1E Oft ............. ........... ................. ..... 14.�i7 1479; 7.�21 4,. .. 115,60107 1560406 5.076 14.894
E 000-1vool"um ..................................... . ....... S5.91 56.0 157.6 57.7 57.61 57.7 150.0U,.,.pby.d .... .. ................................................ .... :: 2 1.904I ZOGI .809 1,852 1,845 I.&W M
M ................. ........ .............. ....... . 1111.5 lie 10. Ito 10. W O II.Nol i. tw- t .. ....................................................... ...... ........ 9.409 9.524 9652 9jW 9.214 9.152 9.215 9220 9417
Th. powAtk� f1p- dpWW W -- W -t.X CWA. P.-W U. d�&. -. "A-Ith"- d.Y.W -6- WW- . th. M M-Wly PWI.W..*.M -k-
57
HOUSEHOLD DATA
TVW A-11. 0D Isd otfs tile pId aM 11mp"d. ot . l tsptidt
hfN- terbs- i .
HOUSEHOLD DATA
.amn tp"" UCNhpy U Pys ats
F Cj j Fb. Fabj Fab. Ft. Fa. F.
ins 88 1887 INS 1087 Is"8
ToW.s i s . 109.44 1 12..0 8.502 8 ............... 2 7.e 7.2 .2
M s asic 59 prolauli ,p,,,uy .................... .7........ ........... . ... . .............272. 2 8,82 1 894 j 58O 2.5 2t0
Eeutas ot owW nrd m_ . .................. . ........ 2.725 13,.758 388 I 348 ' 2.t 2.5
F q ...................... , _ . __ . _ _ . _ .... 14521 1 .48 2 334 238 2.2 1.e
Ts.Ctnc. nsna an osbA .. .............................. 3..51. 35.20D 1.880 . 18.52 4.8 4.1
T tD am .c 9 .tn d U t ........................ _ 3.183 3.381 135 113 4.1 3.2
Ssls oot...ri. ........ 13.161 13,376 754 648 5.4 4.8
Adanrstsvs mppo. ldiog o .. 18,175 18.453 781 741 4.2 3.9
sent. oc sas .... .14,835......... 14,035 15.170 1.373 1,311 8.5 9.0
Prolsulers .. rv.s 1.875 1.87 88 as 4.8 483
S ot svop ant- la ................................. _ .__ _ 12.044 12.388 1.213 1 .158 9.1 8.6
Pn pro. st .d P ............... ........... _ _ 13232 13.373 1.135 993 7.9 8.9
M tri sad .. r f 4................ 8 . . . ..177 4.558 215 197 4. 4.1
Coottuction Csdss 4.788 4,728 88 572 ¶2.0 10.8
Othe, reao prfsoa poductinsn cr58 sa. , roper 3.88 408 284 223 2 8.2 5.
Operators t V ...catot.. od lah ........................................1..80 3 17.2.7 2.31. 1.97 7 121 10.3
Mttstr 09078885. _ . . .nrr sod nrmps..... 7,853 7.914 960 758 11.1 6.7
Trs la o atr.a o orl . .4,588 4,686 515.451.I........................................ 6 4,9D 45 10.1 .
H.ioi. Vaert das. tWp. sad lasrs .s..............4.5.4.4....................6. _ _ _ _ 4,827 844 770 0 5.6 14.3
C ........... _ase. , .. ..... ....... . 58_ 68 4 235 254 295 271
Otter Saadsrs stoererstlt Ossoern. S44tsrs sad sterns ~~~~~~~~~~~3.884 3.943 889 515 13.2 US1.
Fa-Nrs .Iorsssy. sad s . ..g 2.828 2.849 333 288 18e5 9.5
P -Fn.r h s p -s la * t sad thos tt lt j b
St o Arm d Fer-s -i ottdud b t. aasarbpd tot.
Tabls A-12t Estmit Uta W ta Vs-s d .s -atr by -, sot WamasMY dat
(Nlanr n Stsusd)
I I I I IVIETNAM-ERA VETERANS5 4 8l 5 3 |
35to44ysars - -- 6.275 8:33! 79 5.724 5.80 96 522291 54 5130 o 34 y- .... 1007 761.. . 23 s 41
35 W 3 9 yw -... . ... . ... .. ........................... .......
2 e 4 2 2 .5 2 2 P 2 42 1 1 s 3 a
Ssto38ysers 2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.71 F2.3281 o 268 2 .02 1431 tal 53 8.3401044 0- .. . 2.487 2.823 2.378 2.76 2.275 2,683 104 106 .4 3.8
45 y- rsa1dOar . 1529 ¶84 ¶303 1r519 1.148 1448' 54 71 4.5 4.7
NONVETERANS l
Tota, 30toW y .s ...... . ...... 19.078 20071 18,053 16.073 1 16.98 17.908 1,087 868 8.0 5.
30 to 34 y.a. . . . ................................................... 8... 8728 9.001 8.293 8.529 7.743 89027 S55 502 8.6 5.9
35 o 38 os ..... ... ........ 6... 6 02e 8.837 5,707 22 5.384 5.901 323 322 5.7 8.2
40 Wo" y.a's . ... ........ 4.324 4,433 4.053 4.121 3.s39 3.977 214 144 5.3 3.5
NOTE: Ma V s vsl -n who mad hr II ast fOt. 30 or 44 pr f aW goUt. riseltt oot dby c- . oFers bt Ao 5, 1984 md Moy 7, 1975. N-I ertvfao men a h - ts tok of Un Vi-ur Mrtw 98pdsb.
w.t Sav -r oVd ma hrs Ava- Ferns; ptd dat an bnited or
58
HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA
TOWe A-tt Etpioyte stat. f Ott. dele,,t pa98 In Sen iar state
(Nrneta~ Ce Onneattoe
NW8 s.598 wy4i8S SaesoWtt y adhtdldso 888 .etpooy~~ttats lulse Feb. J. F. Feb Ott No.. De.. Jan Fb.
1887 , 1988 198 1987 1987 1097 1987 1988 1989
Cmita nn Wvnloona popfootb ...... I.......... 20.359 20,787 20.824 , 20.359 20.878 .20,714 20,781 20.787 20.824Clea NIne fo...............ea............. 13.535 1.28 1.7 ' 13,S83 . 13.784 13.92 13,900 13.981 14.032EltnPloosd ................ 12,28 13.145 13184 12:745Unesoynyad . 807 780 812 848 I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~U 12.984 13.1772 13,221 13.287 13.27
......... ..................e ........... 897 70. 58 8 2! 800 I 40 729 I 714 7S3U1. 1k~oy - t ..................................... 67 56 58 62 0.8 I 5.3 052 0.1 5.4
Qeban a l ew - . . 8331' 8 I,61 858 8331 8.507' 80527 90549 99408 9,848Clelsan N~~~~~n, Intot, 0)~~~21 0,15.0 0:70 I8 05864 0900 .083 8013OnF Ive . 0.421 0,822 0,88961 0.453 .8886 "584 581 98 589
rateo~ ...... 31 29 29 322 290 311 301 P 295 5318U- o- t w 8.86 .0 5.8 4.8 052 0.2 4f9 9.3
C alepopoona. ............. ... 77 S.74 ,n 8,717 8,5 6,757 871 .
u-P1y..m t . ....... ........ ......... 8. 7.4 8.2 .7 8.7 8.9 7.4 0 .7 7.5
Co~~an ronveeotovonal pooviatno . ~~ 4.0179 4.097 40598 ' 40579 I 4.093 4,594 , 4.596 4.597 4.8981Cmwia Nont love 301 I 3.107 , 3.101 3:059 3111 I 3:.03 3.088 I 3.142 3.147Enlpboyatt ~~~~~~ ~~~~~~2.983 2,989 ' 2,98 2950 3.018 3.009 . 2.988 3.038 3.041
Unemployed 118 I 119 ~~~~~~ ~~~~~~is 118 108 I 8 98 108 108Uramployven.l....... '381 13.8, 381 305 at 2.7 2. . 3.4
Cio4.an N....neon.......... -... 6o " 8 972 8 w .91 6,998 8,982! 8,988 8.972Ceshan rttostone f 080........................... 46431 1 4:.4-20 4,489 ' 449808 4.0 4.519 ; 4.508! 4,472 4,530Emlpioyed j. ................. 4,038 3,954 4.071 4.1153 4.187 4,109 4,137 4.018 4,149
Llle-lloe J 393 472' 398 37' 3331 300 382; 454 381Utalllolyn.mnr .......e _ ............. 8.8 1017 891 84i 7.4! 8.0; 817 10.2 8.4
Cmwn.nt........................N.... 0,985 . .024 80217 0 980 640150 8018 8.021 8.824 8"027Ci~.l b.a N ft nee 3.910 : 3.965 39.70 38931 3.985 I 3994 4,005 4,037 3.98EoMployd . 3.722 ; 3.798 3,810 3.787 3.825 3,847 3.8,48 . 3.884 3.80856unampnyI.so88 178 161 164. 160. 147: 107 103 130Urlltplnyllt~tt .'......... ............... 4.811 4.0. 4.0, 4.2: 4.0 3.7
3.9
i 3, 3.
CM -U- P~ O,.................... 13,741 13.7680 13.789 : 13,741 13.780 13.798 13.760 13788 3,6Ci0lnt* Nn love I 80 ........... _..... 36 23 84 8.454 8.478 80553 8,512 8.3:54 I 8.905
Etl98Aoyed ...................-........1w:~:: 7:911 ' 8:098 8.054 0,020 8.088 8.112 8.127 8.120 8.172U~lellployed ...... ............. 488! 427 372 ~ 420 410 441 385 404 333
Uetonllnate -................... 0.8! 0.0, 4.4 0.0 4.8 0 52 4.0 4.7 3.9
Csannvetoelpopwl9ti .'... ... ...... i . 4.852 4.859 4,779 4.4834 4,840 4.846 4.852 4.888Clean N. loves ........................ 3.3 3.0247 3,284 3.258 3,324 3.314 3.291 3,291 3.300
Ellw~~~~~~nynd . . ... 3...... .08 ,02 3148 3.088 31~88 3.181 3,144 3,1305 3.180UnemoloysO . ~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~180 198 130 183 138 133 147 159 120UnsttPlny-,nt tn........ 0.8 Si 4.2 0.0 4.1 4.0 4.0. 417 1 3
CMN.h rvetnnhfont'" Pnpottn ............ 8,134 8.181 8.18 8.14 28171 8.174 91,178I 8i,18 81C.*.n on loves 0, ............................ 5211 0208 0.279 0.20 .1 0263 0.284 0.33 : .5Em.ployed ................................... 4.728. 4.883 4.904 4.850 4.900 4.940 4.837 4.983 5.013
Unemployed ................................ 473 370 374 440 310 318 327 347 342UnsMowyntat vts ........................... 9.1 7.1 7.1 . 84 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.8 8.4
See fonovto at nd of tabl
59
HOUSEHOLD DATA
T. -1 Ea i.M .1t ,2..9 8th doM- PWA.W.n to _. MM. St8-C.114d
(N.090 h V-)88
HOUSEHOLD DATA
9908291 98wi.m0221 9281.9 Fb Jo. Fob. Fb2. OMI N-0 D-. J~ o__ 19_ 1989 19 1907 1907 1967 1987 9 1980
0. _ l8429gww 010 923 9,30 9.312 9.27 9. 9.305 I.307 9.309 9.312
Oa n W. P _ - = 5, 5.4313 72 . 554 573 5 709 5.79 5w 5788
E.011804 - 5.062 5.372 5.319 5.253 5.403 5.354 5.4757 5.497 5.49801984 =---=4 ~ 349 358 334 311 331 315 323 33D 300
12n29128i8,1112951990 ~~~~~~~ 8.4 8.2 5.9 5.8 5.8 55 5.6 5.7 5.2
T696
Oa. 9,1884f05,019 pputlb 0. ........ ....... ~ 12.901 12.000 12.003 12.001 1.041 12.544 125049 12050 12.053C~ o2w . - 8.136 8.182 e 120 8.23 0.249 8L.01 8.288 `.50M 8308
E2866,.d -. .. 7.36 7.475 7.7492 1.503 7.502 7.65 78648 7.05M 70610U.v06 - - ---- 700 8838 71 728 857 692 640 880 898
U098l~5l11982101. 9.2 84 8-7 8.8 8.0 8.3 7.7 8.0 4.
' h I. rW a- d La_. mdw Idt. ' d h- mn klW ~ p W_ h. ." M nrd tw.I _88Th299n b0 nd F429 t8*08 0.- _ a. 11. PopM ron .08.404420.986998029.005589801
60
ESTABLISHMI&ET DATA
T"~ 9-1. Eff*4y cn OWWWWJWM _ar by hdmtry
ESTABLISHMENT DATA
._, .__t ~I -___ I __
-II. ..................... ...... ....... ........
. . . ............ .. ........ . ....
o~~~~w~~~~l@~~ .. ........!...... ..............................
C~ t........................
.................................
ow_......................-
. .. .. ..............,s .................... -
.ViI JllI V........................sa. e a. . l . ................. .
P, 1a1 _ ......................ala ltS cls ~~...........
.el ................. " 6. .................
...... ..... .. .... ..u1.......................
ol e_ a/a elW~m ..................al c s.................
i~ssnlacleabB ..................
.. ......... ... ........ . .
Fco ala cls ~~~. ..... .... .........Tc- 1 .......... ... .. ...
TCIIWI.-------- ..................---
1 1 Z e ...................
~_V *W.......... ...............
.h ~ Wt .................... .n . ... .......... ....... ...... ......I
..................
.,_._....................t ................ .........._- C S~~~at_ ............
_ _ . . ......................
ans~b ..... ...... .... ..W ....... ~~~~............ ._,1l_......... ......................
Fw . .... ....................
.................. . . .
r. ....... .......................
_ _ .....................
.."_ .......................
__ _.. ._. ;. _ _ I_._
103.285 jl:).*lkl 1}1.T86. 1§4,]17
..... ,j ,.,l .XS.ss§I l i......
"' i 7..1 74f 7"
"' "'I "' "',l74 §,721 b.s>@ $.16*1,@e a,8X 1.j] I.J2a.
1b.JJs a§,3@3 1@,4a 19,4a1|3.s@? 1X,347 IJ.252 IJ,.7,
III.J*T 81,4§] 11.4aS 11.4131 7,$s 1 7,5.7 7,5§. 7,*8*
1 7$,, 7,, 7b} 7sO; s-s | s-@! *-- ..., ... ; ... , ... , ...| 7XX ' 77X. 76|1 777I a@X a@s I }sX WeX1 1.444 .4ss', r.45} 1.4so| azo 2.§§91 2.2sX 2.|b
2.|Xs 2.Xa* a.|3§ 2.22sa.||s' a.§|@ 2.|@s a.@|s
@Ms @ta @ss @227@ §t 74J 7§JJT ]] 37 }@1
7 ,8*t ,t 7.t5 @ ,e75'2 §'^44 §'*t 5'*7§
z s.s4s I l.*4s l.sss r.*s]i *- | s s ss| 7,@, 7,, 73f tS1 1.s2 1 1,las X,1|s ilso
*@ *@w s@1 Xssl,522 a,525 1.5Jr t.NJX1 ,41 s ,l47 | ,l4@ s ,§sR
1-7 1 l-7 1-7 s-l4 I @49 @45 l41... , ... "'! "'
7Z, s lS 1 7@,JSJ 7l'5sX1 7@'$$
s.45 | §.47] §,49*j ^.4b7J.Jl j J.---l J.24-s *.s-7}.}41 I a.a4 X,34r a.a4
5,l51 [ $,@7, ,,,,7 5,9@3*.--- I r,^7a 3.4$3 s.4gX2.395 ].Ze },4@s Z.4@§
10,44} l$,459 1l,*z Z",7Xa.4s 2.45} X,&aX 2.sos.b@2 W.§b J.e21 J.@J7t.@@J JlJ J.§2. }.BJ7*.e47 *.4*4 *.e*} *.|b
* .*57 *.**l * ,|1 *,*77J.J*l J.J*X JJ*7 J.J@*}.B*b 2.|s} 2,§$4 2.BsX,2|7 .,}|N X,}§ X,2@§
?4.4bJ 24,*at Wi.s47 }4.$4*§.1bb 5,}|7 5.2.* $,2*§7,@2J 7 ,@*3 7,§|7 7, 47
.7,JXJ 17,}71 17,253 17,JJXJ.X77 2 ,@1 },eZ 2 .§|B.X79 Z .s§* ],§bO 4 ,§@X
_ 7S,25$ @,2aO l4.277 .,}25-
61
ESTABLISHMXENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA
... ... .... .. .... ... .. .. .4 .. r.,.o .....-.... ........ I,.....4 35 }44 M s }s BXl3
. n n . ..... |4. |....... 4. ^. ̂. -a ---
_| ~~~~~~~~. . 4. i. 4. o. 4. 4. ....14. r14.0~~~~~~ ~~. ..s ..@ ..*. . }. ....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.d... .... .... ... 4 . 4. . s 4 . o. 4. 4 o. 4. 4. 4.r_.& .................................. .... Z.s. . I s. @ . s. *.. s. s.. > Sc .................. *. -. -. Io. -. *.--.-*..I......s.
nr_. .......................*. 4. -I .--*. X.*.I ---W8Zthgna -|_s ~......................4b 4s4.I4+ 2}44 4 4I4v4@
raw. ............................1ozXo,|s , s s 1 s s_ ,....................... os . 4. . o. . 2 2. . 2.
. @| . . . .....................4. ..4. .Zs .I -I -4.
.lI | ............................... a4 4. Z2 4. 3N 4. . 14 4. 2
. W U W| . ....................... o. *. 4.-*.-o. I*-4.-*.........-.
. .l ........................... .... .... .... .r. 4. 4.7 4 .... 4. 4. |4-4. 4.§
. _ s . . . . ................ 1. 3. 3. s. ((- )1 -
1 ...X ..I -.I3..... .... .... ...... .@ ..$ ... .. .. ..
90-832 0 - 89 - 3
62
STABLISHMENT DATA ESTABUSHMENT DATATble W4 A-nW head d w-Up .n*0 of WOU a nuoWpolswy wOkun Ptal _onapultmeapwolle by kWusb
l
11 -v. . .................................. ............................... .......
W l .... ............ ....................... ........... ........ ........... .......
..... .. ............ ........... ........ . .... ....................
..... ... ........ ... .. ... ..................................L , _ _ , ..~~~~....................................
__1 ...........................................
a T _ _' .7 1 _ ~~~~........... ..............
Fc _I...................................
Tlabil l - ~~~~...... .......... ... .... .. ... ...... .
..IN U I N................... ...........
................. ........... ........ .....
rcod _ l ~~~~.. ............. . .....................
To 1_,1_ ............... ~..... ............. ...
_s _ Wulblh-rs ....... .... ' . ............
.. ..e . .. .. .. e .. : .. ............................ .........
T__................... .. .......... ................
__ _................ . ................
b~~s_ ........ ~~............... ..
......................... ......
T_ ... ......................
I.
I...
II -
Fte..ss.139.Xw2.5§
|a.7@
|@.es
|@.s
@.45
7.79
|o.X}
12.gs
wo.o]
Q.24
l1.26
13.9@
a.sg
7.91
§.31
9.§s
t3.ss
7.33
s.ot
as.54
I 4 7 2§.9f
*.11
t2.|7
9.74
S.X
@.&7
1-.111-§I. I|7
t.1,
Io. '
I2.."
I-.|-1.sI2.7
:l.JI...
I@. Be
-I.1
--- a.
666. 266. 106.
6061 1001 6060 6000 P0461. 16 0666.640610.120666.67660.01 610.21 601.66 660 20
061.06 060.66 066.1. 061.04
660.07 266.04609.62666.10
661.41 626.66 462.., 4.0 60
646.60 600.16 646.10 666.60661.20 646.60 061.6' 646 66200.46 660.60 666 1060070666.66460.06464.64 462006.66047.66066.69020911.06 640.14 660.70 666466.00 661.60 460.06 666640. 60 411.06466.00466666.66664.60 616.61600066.16066.66 006.66006067.01 006.66 000.06 060700. 61 410.06 466.66 416601.66614.04 406.60 662
462.69666.67614.60 610606.60 616 .06 466.06 600406. 06 040.66 060.04 000600.70666.06 609.06 606666. 00 620.00 660.41 246406.66 066. 06000.40406.606.60 666.06406.26402.064.64 060. 66 006.20 066620.16 606. 66 607.06 640606.10002.00 610.66616.666. 01 660.64 660. 66 626.01
460. 27 417.66 416.61 666.06
666.00 46..66 466.06616.66
676.10161.6111661061
660.00 660.646666666660
676.16202.60 600.60607.14...................... ....... I .- I e.7"__s* .t, .. 1 6 S
0.161
Table 3.4. Nrty Earidn, 1d4 OT production oTnsupao y woT o an printa nanawicutl Payrab by _ duloy6601 . 60a
F.--C - _ ...-.....
C6660 6066666 C
P6�-a.6.0. 666. 766. 660. 666. 2666. 766. 060.
666.6 616.6 616.6 611.06.1616.0 614.0 610.660.6 04.6 04. 60.6.666 06.6 96.6 06.0606.1 606.1 606.0 606. 0l.6646�66 666606.0 660.0 606.1 604. 1 6.0606.4 604.6 694.6611.6 611.6 611.66.6616.6 676.6 616.6661.2 610.6 611.6 666.06.6666.6 666.9 611.6616.6 610.1 600.6 606. 9 2.1 666 646666600.6 6k.6 662.0 666. 0 6.6600.0 666.2 666.6601.6 606.9 616.2 6�2. 6.1 646 666619.6 600. 2 661.: 666., 6.6660.4 606.0 600.2
p-a.a.-
266. 266. 2666. 260.
116.4 616.0 60696.6 06.1 6.0. 666
666661646666664.4 600.6 600.6 6 -6.0.610.0 666.6 611.4� .2661.6611.6 I 10.6 I .6
641606666166,664.1 666.6 696.6 j
6 .2. a66 076 62161.. v ....
go,
ESTABLISHMENT DATA -ESTABLISHMENT DATA
p"voll by 1nds-els
. .. ...... t.i is. s. 001 02 0. 02...0 0,
2.20.00..~~~~~~~~...... . 0 0. i. ~ ~ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
. ............ 00.... . 0 s iI s . si 000 st *.0 5. .. 0.
0 .f..20. . ..ilSt .. 20....0.2....0...0.
. .. ..0t0.2220000i..0......................1.......0..2....Pt~iO
00iOO~O~l~iti . .......... i.0.2.0.2 20.2 00.......0.0.0.
Ufl01200.. iO~.000.00 ..... 2......0. 0. 9. 0.
OiO~tO~iin200it~o.0i .00.0 0.0 0.0.. 5..... 0. 10 0 000 0.
I~i~t.00511i00000.020..0...........00..050 0..00.2.00. 00.
t.i.O.iiO .oi.2iOlitO......0.4...1 0.2........500.....00.....
. .0011200o0001........2..50 I0...........1.0.n.0 200 20.
Oii~~iiOOOO ~ .............. ... . 0... 000.9 100.0 00.0.. . 0.0 000 000 0. .
000n0200120t22000i2ii2000i0i.0..0 00.0 00..00..00....0 000 1.0 00.00..
. . . ....... 01......00...on.000.000.002.00. 00. 10.
000500000t02t2002~. ..... 00..00..00..........i.., 00.s 00.0 00.
.- 0-1-0-0--------10.-001.-0- .. ..0.0 0. 0 0.
9200002.sloooo 01.. ........... 00.0......00.0....0.02..
002ot~ht~.2i021000 .0.......0....0.0.0...10.0 200 00.1 0001.00.
Sotoote....... ..... t 00.0. .0... 055.0 .s... 000.5 0.2.2 100.5 os.
.2 io on 1.0 .2.0 .... ... .. .... ... ...
Tn. B . ................. 000 . .......................... tI~y s~n t I co~ n
. .. .. .. .. .. ... . . .. .... ... ..... ..... ....
0020.. ..... 0. 0
I-h~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~090000 ..nt .. 0. 0I 0. 0.0 0. 0.0 o. 000 0. 5.0 S.
64
Senator SARBANES. Well, Commissioner, we thank you very muchfor your testimony.
I want to address the issue I mentioned in my opening state-ment. I think the relevant release is the one that you put out onFriday, February 26, of real earnings in January 1988.
Could we go back to table 3 of that release? I'm trying to under-stand what it shows us at the bottom, where it shows averageweekly earnings and does it then by years, 1983 through 1987. Itake it these are earnings adjusted for inflation, is that right?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, they are in constant dollars.Senator SARBANES. And what it shows is that the average weekly
earnings has been dropping. Is that correct?Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct, in real terms.Senator SARBANES. In other words, people are, in effect, earning
less in real terms than they were in the previous years?Mrs. NORWOOD. On average, over the past year.Senator SARBANES. Pardon.Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, on average, over the past year.Senator SARBANES. What is the historical lesson on this phe-
nomenon? Is this an unusual development in the post-World War IIperiod, for example?
Mrs. NORWOOD. The series tends to move in cycles. Obviously it'saffected by recessions. But generally, during the 1970's, there werevery large increases, particularly in the unionized sector and inmanufacturing.
We now have had a considerable restructuring of industry. Wealso have had a change in the demographic composition of the pop-ulation. Minorities are an increasing proportion of the work force,but the really big difference I think is the age cohort effect. Wehave a lot of baby boom generation young people who are now pro-gressing through the labor market, and so there is a much largersupply of people, a little over 25, who are vying for jobs.
On the structural side, one of the interesting points is that whileit is true that the growth of jobs has been in the service-producingsector where average earnings have tended to be somewhat lower,our employment cost index shows that over the past year the rateof increase of compensation-that is fringe benefits and earnings,wages and salaries-is going up in the services industry at a rate ofclose to 5 percent whereas in manufacturing the increase now isonly about 3 percent. So there is the beginning of this turnaroundin the wage structure that I think is quite important for the future.
But you're quite right that real earnings have declined since1984.
Senator SARBANES. This is a matter of some concern. We've fo-cused on it a little bit, and I'm handing you a chart-which is thischart [indicating]-and I want to make sure I understand what thereport encompasses.
This is real earnings of nonsupervisory workers, showing the per-cent change from the 1980 level. As I understand the figures, realearnings in every year except one have been lower by these per-centage amounts than they were in 1980. Do I understand your re-lease correctly? In other words, in 1987, real earnings were 2 per-cent less than they were in 1980. The only year in which real earn-ings went up over 1980, so that people were actually better off than
65
in 1980, was in 1984, when it went up 0.2 of a point. Am I readingthe figures correctly?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I believe so. I'd like to look at them more specifi-cally. That's the general trend. The general trend has been thatearnings have not completely kept up with inflation. I prefer to usethe employment cost index and to include compensation ratherthan the average earnings that are in that release. That seriesshows a general upward trend since 1980, even after adjustment forinflation.
Senator SARBANES. But the inflation figures, at least for some ofthese years, have not been high.
Mrs. NORWOOD. There has been inflation but it has not been ashigh as we had in 1979 and 1980.
Senator SARBANES. Which means that the earnings have reallybeen held down at very low levels.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Of course we had 2 years of very steep recession.Senator SARBANES. Well, that's here [indicating]. What accounts
for the decline in real earnings in a nonrecession period, whichwould be these 3 years out here? -
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, as I've indicated, I think that there areprobably three major factors. One is the age cohort effect. Thesecond is the restructuring of industry effect, and the third is theproblem that we are seeing in the unemployment data for theblack population, although they have improved considerably overthis past year.
Senator SARBANES. We had that latter problem, at least, in earli-er periods. Let me ask this question. Has there been a period in theseries of years in the postwar period when we've had a comparableexperience in terms of a decline in real earnings?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't know.Senator SARBANES. I have 7 years here and in 6 of the 7 years,
using 1980 as the base year, there was a decline in real earnings.Mrs. NORWOOD. In the late 1970's, there were very large wage in-
creases that were partly the effect of cost-of-living adjustmentclauses in many major collective bargaining contracts which helpedto protect against the very large rates of inflation that we werehaving.
Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much, Commissioner.Senator Roth.Senator RoTH. Isn't it accurate that in 1980 real median family
income decreased by over $1,600?Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't have those data with me. I'll take your
word for it.Senator RomH. Then let me ask you this. In the course of this
recent expansion, is it accurate that real median family income hasgrown by 10.7 percent?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Again, I'd have to look at the data, but I wouldexpect that during an expansionary period there would be at leastsome increase in family income. Now one of the reasons for the in-crease in family income is because so many more members of thefamily are working. So we would expect that.
Senator RoTH. That's right.Mrs. NORWOOD. Per capita, income has been going up. In fact,
there's been a lot of work done and a lot more I believe needs to be
66
done on the whole question of the changes in income over the last20 years. There are some puzzles there that I think we really don'tquite understand. There seems to have been very little shift infamily income. Now we've had a lot of changes in family structure.We have a lot more women maintaining families. We have manyteenagers who went into the work force at lower wages. But I thinkthat deserves a good deal of further study.
Senator ROTH. Mrs. Norwood, there's been a lot of talk about thenew jobs being low-paid jobs. I notice that there was an article inthe Washington Post on February 7 which I would ask be includedas part of the record. This article points out "Now the Good News:The Middle Class Lives." This story, which is based on a critique ofa Joint Economic Committee study, says that, "Fortunately, howev-er, the generalizations that the stories seem to point to are wrong.For the economy as a whole, the average worker's pay has gradual-ly increased and the share of the work force but low earningsgradually declined."
Are you familiar with this article?Mrs. NORWOOD. I believe I have read it.[The article referred to follows:]
67
Now the Good News:The Middle Class LivesLw-%ge Service lobs Haven't Really Taken Over
By Marnit H Kstsen nd Muray N. Ros
T HE NOTION that Amserica is losingits middleas pb. h. be-n nowidely ptriaed thtat it rapidlybo g cnonentoal swindas. Stnies fre-
qstrey *ppe tr national newspapers andmtagaine with headlines Iike The Disap-potring Middle Clans or 'A Low-Woec En-plokn'.: while local new. stoie tell of thefamily breadwinter who lost hin (a nory pbrad now fins hi.tetIf rospondmg to 'help
woned" signs in fast-food restaurnaos.Tht storiest abot individualt nnker are
ttIchotutely trte. Many neonten hboe losvbat they regarded no stable johb and honecopenenced cnonaderobi dintres whenthey were unohln to find jobt that paid com-parable wage. Fortunately. hown er. theentritlinuotet that the staries tent to
p0ibt to re wrong. For the econtory as awbeLt the anerage wortke's pay has grad-Uly increased And the sthae o1 the workfotce with lows eaenig has gradually do.
Why ha the sirwe that jobs he in-reas-ingly slipped from tmiddle-Lass tn low-wage,tatas beotne no paooub? One reausn is theMtsitine appeal n( espLanations linked to thegrowth of jobs in srven. Average hooumwages services are. in act, considerablyower tha avenrge aes in Manufsactrmg. Morenoer. the huge rise in employ-ment-owtr 50 percent during the past 20yean-is aImost entirely accounted for byjons outude nMa atorrng. And it ib .lsotroe that average wages, after adintig forinflation, stopped growing after 1972wlseeea real wage growth had averagedemte than 2 percent a year ones the 'SOsand Ofis.
Pittg thele facts together it's easy toeatcuade that the fast growth in serce jobshat ceaused average rein wages to stagnatnand the share ni wnrkne with low wages toeapand at the espense of the middle class.Easy. but vtsg.
he slowdown in wage grovth sinethe early '70t is associated with low-er peodbitsily gai"n dating from the
sew period-ale gtimtate area of comoernto our soholatios show that sirtaUtyrinse of that slowdown in !iked to the shiltto ervices that has been going on for 40
Moreover part of the stagPtno inwages in nMore apparept thot rean. For enansfe. mesh receot growth In coMnpeo-tion has cone in the fom of bettnr frmge'benefit s ch an health and pemno pieCounting -sa-wage haerlit would jack upreal wage growth by a substaotial sevententh od a percent a year. Overonotig s-flaushs (spegificaly hptamng costs in theCmtnwmn Price ldeI also mahe real
wae gains erem rstller thba they actually
Coaroctmig for these facts still leads tothe conclusion that oveell wage increasesha. sltwed down coniderably. But thatblowdown ha not come from an incrase Ler
pooly pain jobh as aleged in such widelypubfiebred studies as that released by theJoint Eomomin Comruitee in December19fdi
That study. entitled -Tre Great Amen-tea job MaIchne: The Proliferation of LowWage FEmnplytneot i the U.S. Ectomyn,'assigned wage aod salary workhn to high-.medioust and low-earnings rategrones abtedon ther asIs earoigt in 1973. 1979 and19et. Adjsted for inflation. The centralconrlosian of the study in that the hare ofemployment in the "lw-wIags" catogory in-cemoed disproportionteady between 1979and 1984. cotpured with the change be-tween 1973 And 1979. According to the au-tho. vearly three fifths of the net eneemploymnt gnented between 1979 and1984 was o-wge, compared with lessthan one filth during the preceding periodL[See chart.
Oar reminbatin of dat frItom thesome bori toutce (the Currenf PopltinSutst-eI p au to radially different coeclu-ris.- Instead of a sobstantial iocoeate. meanatsis shows a decline m the share of newjobs with low ann D eartpg. The hare ofnew jobs that paid les than 50 percent ofmedian earngs derlioed from 24 pertedtbetween 1973 and 1979 to 13 peerent be-tween 1979 and 1999.
It it also importaut to once that mott ofthe workrs with low a Wi earningsworked wily part-time or part of the year-92.5 petcent in 1985. In other words themin reason for low annual esernmg is notlow w-ges let low working houns.
The middle group of johb din bane pro-portinaluely sminler gain than in the earlier period but oldy hectute the hre ofhigher payig job increased substantially.
A substntial part of the diffmece nonrreslts comes from opdting me analysisfrom 198410 1996 land also uoing a bettermflation mean)ure But diuating for thesetetnoical differees does not affect mecentral finding: The share of jhnb with lowearnings has generally been declining since1967.r he chndmgig skill And work enperi-
rofe o the Ih=o force. specaUy the.T. nasave tieflo of yonng enry-leel
worknes duorng the past 20 years, havechaeged earorg diterbmou (nr tomnbroad gropt of workens. Earnsm relationships hboe adpnted to accommodate thechanging Min d vorke a pobh es tad.iered to their moelsfiesnis aesd -. IIe.
spite tbhe emesomtatin chabns. baPe,e. tee disthutarn of earnings for the workforce As A whole has renaited esteonhely
PrnPossests of the view thot job qualityhast sea serimnuty deteriornted have aeguedthat nsus policieshald behcomidered tocountor these aber.a trens. Policies wg-gested include inereased public woeekspending, raining the federal minmowage enating plant-dosing leginlati n andimpsing protectionist trade hartinrr. Thecsiefoe wch politie hwee. reee osupport ftm carelnful analysis of trends inthe distiution oil earings.
I r.ris in toro is dinrto, efmoniscpiricy ttdi and bal rras, is amonrr GS ascialr at thr AmtericastEseer.,pe /stituae
WHERE THE NEWJOBS ARE
DOTRolsUTION OF NEW JOBS mYEARNINGS CATEGORY. IN PERcENT
JOINT ECONOMIC CtNTtR STUDY
AMERICAN ENTERPRISEJNSTITUTE STUOY
s 7il9
s3o 9.-ll l
LOW MIDDLE HIGH|EARNINGS CATEGORY
canroas cotagn
T7.k6s %t4~>,7
1) a
68
Senator ROTH. Is it a fair statement to say that the low-wageservice jobs really haven't taken over, that the jobs being createdare in the average or above average?
Mrs. NORWOOD. There have been a number of articles on thisissue and there have been several studies. In fact, there is a reviewof the literature on this subject in the Federal Reserve Bank ofBoston's most recent bulletin that pulls all of these studies togeth-er.
There is considerable disagreement about what is happening outthere. The research results depend upon how the work is done, par-ticularly which years are picked out for the analysis. If you focuson the recovery period, you get one answer. If you focus on a periodthat includes a very steep recession, you may get another answer.That's one issue.
Another issue is the measure that is used for deflation. We didhave, as you know, some problems with the measurement of homeownership in the Consumer Price Index in the 1970's. The workthat has been done by Kosters and Ross suggests that when theyaccount for many of these issues that there has been very littleshift in the composition jobs. That is, that they conclude that therehas not been an increase in the low-wage jobs. So you're quite rightabout that.
But I think the interesting thing about their study is that theyconclude that there has been no shift in the distribution of levels inreal terms of income over that period. That's the issue that I wasdescribing before that I think needs a lot more work.
Senator ROTH. What have been the fastest growing occupationsin this expansion?
Mrs. NORWOOD. They have clearly been occupations which re-quire education and training. They have been in the service-pro-ducing industries. Probably one of the fastest growing has beenbusiness services. Something like one in eight new jobs has been inbusiness services. Many of those jobs are fairly high-paying jobs.
We also have had a big increase in eating and drinking placesand those jobs are not very good jobs if we look at them in terms ofpay. They often hire young people, who are gaining experience. Ithink they are beginning now to move toward using more retirees.
Senator ROTH. We have a vote. I'll just ask one more question,Mr. Chairman, at this stage.
Mrs. NORWOOD. But you're quite right that the managers andprofessionals have been the fastest growing.
Senator ROTH. The U.S. civilian unemployment rate is 5.7 per-cent. How does that compare to the European industrial nationssuch as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom?
Mrs. NORWOOD. It's considerably lower. We have done muchbetter. The rate for Canada is about 8 percent; for France, it's 10.6;Germany has a rate of 7 percent; and the U.K. has a measuredrate of about 9 percent. Only Sweden, of the countries that we com-pare and adjust to our concept, has a lower unemployment rate.
Senator ROTH. On that point, how many jobs have been createdsince 1974 and how does this compare with Western Europe?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Since 1974, we can calculate that for you. I cantell you the one calculation that I have already made is that therewere more than 15 million jobs created since the end of the reces-
an
sion in November 1982, and Mr. Bregger is going to be calculatingthe change since 1974.
Mr. BREGGER. It's roughly 25.5 million, on average, between 1974and 1987.
Senator ROTH. And how does that compare with WesternEurope?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, Western Europe is having a great deal ofdifficulty. They are creating very few, if any, jobs. They have veryhigh rates of youth unemployment and they have done somewhatbetter than we have in productivity increases, in part because theyhave not employed many of their young people. But their job cre-ation experience has been very poor.
Senator ROTH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Senator SARBANES. Thank you, Senator Roth.We're going to go vote and I'll let Congressman Solarz chair. Let
me just ask two quick followup questions to the ones Senator Rothput.
Are the unemployment rate figures that you're giving us for theEuropean countries comparable figures?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. They've been adjusted to U.S. concepts, tothe extent possible. But I should point out that that's using avail-able data. Many of them-for example, the British use a registra-tion system and we adjust it with an annual household survey.
Senator SARBANES. And I take it the unemployment rates in thePacific Rim countries are much lower, are they not?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, generally.Senator SARBANES. In fact, lower than ours?Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, we have not adjusted all of them to U.S.
concepts but the rates of unemployment in many of the PacificRim countries seem to be lower than ours.
Senator SARBANES. Which only underscores that that may bewhere we need- to look in terms of the economic competition we'refacing.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I'd be a little careful about that. If we wereto include discouraged workers in our definition and include themin the Japanese definition, we would have unemployment ratesmore comparable to the Japanese.
Senator SARBANES. The other point I'd make, since you singledSweden out as the exception to the European rule, is again to un-derscore the symposium which the JEC and the Congressional Re-search Service held about a week ago on the Swedish economy. Itspurpose was partly to recognize the Year of New Sweden in theUnited States and the first Swedish settlement 350 years ago. Butwe spent a very instructive morning looking at Sweden's approachto this situation, and I'm sure those papers when they're publishedwill be I think of great interest to people.
Mrs. NORWOOD. It was a very stimulating morningSenator SARBANES. Congressman Solarz.Representative SOLARZ [presiding]. Thank you very much, Mr.
Chairman.Mrs. Norwood, as the unemployment rate has gone down, has
there been a commensurate decline in the poverty rate in the coun-try, in the number of people who are considered below the provertylevel, both absolutely and as a percentage of the population?
70
Mr. BREGGER. I think the proportion of people in poverty isdown. The most recent figures we have would be for 1986, theannual income figures. We wouldn't have anything for 1987 yet. SoI don't know what the current situation is.
Mrs. NORWOOD. They have gone up, though, since the 1970's.Representative SOLARZ. As of 1986, generally speaking, does the
poverty rate parallel the unemployment rate?Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, not entirely. And that's partly because of
the concept of unemployment. People have to have been looking forwork in order to be counted as unemployed with our definitions.It's an activity definition. A lot of people in poverty are not lookingfor work. So unemployment is not a very complete indication of theextent of economic hardship.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, do you know what the poverty ratewas as of 1986?
Mrs. NORWOOD. No, I don't. We can check that.Representative SOLARZ. Could you give me a chart going back to
1977 indicating for each year that the figures were available whatthe unemployment rate was and what the poverty rate was?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Sure. I might also raise some questions about thedefinition of poverty. It is a definition that was established manyyears ago and was I think rather innovative and quite brilliant, butit is basically three times food expenditures and OMB has neverbeen able to improve it.
[The following information was subsequently supplied for therecord:]
Annual average unemployment rate and poverty rate,1977-86
Pe t ONPercent18 18
16_ 16
14 r te ty - 14rIt.
12 12
10 10
8 _/_8
6 _ rr=_ 6
4 4
2 2
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
Note L*%ernployalent rate - percent of civilan lbor force that Is uoenpl0yed.
Poverty rate - percent of totd popLsotlon with Income below poverty tlheahokda.
Sonrce Brow of Labor Statlatics
72
Representative SOLARZ. I read somewhere recently that while thenumber of jobs in our export industries have declined, our actualexports are up. The explanation that was offered was that this wasdue to technological improvements which enabled manufacturerswho export their goods to produce more and sell more with lesslabor. Therefore, the decline in jobs in export industries was notreally because of the balance-of-trade deficit but rather because ofthe advance of technologies.
Is that more or less accurate? Do you have any figures on that?Mrs. NORWOOD. We don't have specific figures overall on the use
of technology. Certainly that is part of what has been happening,but it's not the whole story.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, is it in fact true that our actual ex-ports have gone up while at the same time the number of jobs inthese industries has declined?
Mrs. NORWOOD. We clearly have increased productivity in ourmanufacturing sector during the recovery period and I would guessprobably especially in the manufacture of exports. Output has beenfairly strong and employment, while growing, has been less strongthan the output growth.
Representative SOLARZ. Do you make any calculations or is itpossible to make any calculations as to how many jobs this tradedeficit costs us?
Mrs. NORWOOD. No, we have not made any calculations and Idon't know of any reliable way to do that. We are importing be-cause those products are cheaper for us. If we were to producethem, changes that would be needed in the structure of our indus-tries are things that we really cannot calculate. BLS many yearsago attempted to do that work, but have stopped doing it about 10years ago because it is not possible to come up with very effectivestatistically accurate work. I think policy officials do some of thatand that's fine, but we can't stand behind the specific numbers.
Representative SOLARZ. We are considering, in the House Educa-tion and Labor Committee, legislation to increase the minimumwage, which was last raised in 1981 to $3.35. Since then, as a resultof inflation, it has declined in value by 25 percent.
The proposal we have before us would increase the minimumwage by 50 cents next year to $3.85; by 40 cents I think the yearafter to $4.25; and by another 40 cents in 1991 to $4.65.
Are you in a position to give us any estimate as to the impactwhich such increases would have on the unemployment situation?
Mrs. NORWOOD. No, I can't give you any estimates. I can tell youthat there has been a great deal of research in this area. Econo-mists in general believe that there is a disemployment effect. Mostof the work that I have seen-and we have reviewed the litera-ture-suggests that the disemployment effect is only mostly withteenagers. The models suggest that a 10-percent increase in theminimum wage leads to about a 1-percent decline in teenage em-ployment.
We have just received some data for 1987 on who the minimumwage workers are. A large proportion of them are young. Of thosewho are 25 years and over, a very large proportion of them arepeople with very little education, as we would expect.
73
Representative SOLARZ. When you say that most economiststhink that it does create some disemployment effect, does that--
Mrs. NORWOOD. They believe it. I used that word very carefully.Representative SOLARZ. Well, it stands to reason that if you in-
crease the minimum wage there will be some employers who decideit's not in their interest to continue paying people if they have topay them more. But does that figure take into account the extraearnings of the minimum wage workers who presumably are kepton. The great majority of whom presumably therefore have more tospend and presumably, because they have more to spend, generategreater demand which in turn creates greater need for employ-ment throughout the economy, or at least those sectors where theirpurchases are made? To what extent does that increased purchas-ing power generate a degree or amount of employment whichequals or perhaps exceeds the loss of employment due to the actualincrease in the minimum wage?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Most of the studies have attempted to take ac-count of that econometrically. I don't know how successfully.
Representative SOLARZ. What you're saying is that, on balance,they feel there's a net loss in jobs but they can't prove it?
Mrs. NORWOOD. What I'm saying is that there has been a lot ofwork and it's not very conclusive. I wouldn't characterize it as youhave.
Representative SOLARZ. OK. I was trying to paraphrase what youwere saying. But if in fact it is inconclusive, then presumably ifthere's ever a time to raise the minimum wage, this would be agood time. Unemployment is at a low, at least in terms of the lastdecade or close to the last decade, and where real earnings havedeclined.
Mrs. NORWOOD. I leave that judgment to you.Representative SOLARZ. Well, would you suggest a better time
from an economic point of view?Mrs. NORWOOD. I still leave that judgment to you, sir.Representative SOLARZ. But I'm relying on you, Mrs. Norwood.Mrs. NORWOOD. We rely on each other.Representative SOLARZ. You indicated that there had been enor-
mous job generation here in the United States in the last severalyears, whereas the number of new jobs created in Western Europewas more or less flat.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Very few.Representative SOLARZ. What accounts for that? What was it
about our economy that generated these 15 million new jobs,whereas the Europeans you say didn't generate a net increase injobs?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Very little, if you add them together.Well, there are a number of reasons. We have had an expansion-
ary policy, although we have a problem with our deficit. Jobgrowth is a normal reaction to an expansionary policy. That's onething that has helped. Clearly the buildup in defense has had aneffect on jobs.
There is also a greater flexibility in the American labor marketthan there is in the European labor market and I think that standsus in very good stead. There is much more movement. At any one
74
time people are losing jobs and finding new ones. They're voluntar-ily leaving jobs.
In Europe, there is a rigidity in the labor market which makes itvery difficult for workers to move or for employers to add to orreduce their payrolls. It takes a very long time either to get newjobs and especially for employers to let people go.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, I think my time has expired and Iyield to my good friend from Wisconsin, Senator Proxmire.
Senator PROXMIRE. I want to follow up on what the distinguishedRepresenative from New York was talking about.
In the first place, when I came in he was talking about the ef-fects of the minimum wage and I think he has a very, very signifi-cant point. I argued last year that it was time to increase the mini-mum wage, we should increase, that our historical experience hasbeen very good with it. At the time when we first instituted theminimum wage in the 1930's we had a high level of unemployment.It never has been as high as it was the year that we introduced theminimum wage. It has declined. So there is an effect on effectivedemand. The people who get the minimum wage are the lowestpaid workers obviously, by definition, and they spend because theyhave to spend what they get. They spend it on all kinds of things.There's a rapid turnover of money. So it seems to me that the ar-gument that the employers make that unemployment will increaseif the minimum wage is increased hasn't been borne out in thefirst place by the experience with the minimum wage from its in-stitution, and then I tried to chart the increases in the minimumwage, and I found in the years when the real minimum wage wasthe highest the economy grew the most and aggregate demand wasthe best and so forth.
The joy of this is that it's outside the other stimulation that youreferred to in the economy, which is running a deficit, livingbeyond our means in that sense. So I think there's a pretty strongcase to be made for increasing the minimum wage from the stand-point of increasing, not adversely affecting, unemployment.
How about that?Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, there are clearly some areas of the coun-
try, like the Northeast, where workers cannot be found to work atthe minimum wage and so employers are voluntarily raising wagerates.
Senator PROXMIRE. They're saying McDonald's is paying $6 anhour or $7 an hour now.
Mrs. NORWOOD. And we have fewer young people coming into thelabor force as well.
Senator PROXMIRE. But what is your view of the effects on unem-ployment and inflation of an increase in the minimum wage thisyear? What would that do?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't have one.Senator PROXMIRE. You don't have a view?Mrs. NORWOOD. No.Senator PROXMIRE. Do your experts have a view on it?Mrs. NORWOOD. No, we don't.Senator PROXMIRE. Does your husband, does he have a view?
He'd better not, huh? [Laughter.]
75
Now let me get to the other issue and that is living beyond ourmeans. I think that Congressman Solarz has made an excellentpoint about that.
I guess you mentioned it yourself. You said one of the reasonswhy we've had a lower level of unemployment and more growththan the European countries is because of our fiscal policy, is thatright?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Our defense buildup has created jobs andthat costs money.
Senator PROXMIRE. Now that's part of it and I think all of ushave concentrated on that and talked about it and debated it, butwe've paid very little attention to the increase in household debtand the diminution of household savings and the increase in busi-ness debt, and that's very considerable. I understand between 1963and 1980, the ratio of total net borrowings by domestic nonfinan-cial sector to the GNP was about 1.4 to 1. By 1985, the ratio hadrisen to 1.7 to 1. The latest figures available for the third quarterof 1987 showed debt to GNP ratio increasing at 1.8 to 1. I under-stand that business debt, which was in 1955, for instance, $2.85 forevery dollar of earnings, is now $9 for every dollar of earnings,which it seems to me means we have a very vulnerable economynow.
Come the next recession, aren't there likely to be very serious in-solvency problems when you have that high a level of debt both inthe business and in the household sector?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, we clearly would be happier with a largersavings rate. I don't think there's any doubt about that. And I'mnot as familiar as you with the debt issues of the business sector.
Senator PROXMIRE. Isn't it exactly the lower savings rate and thehigher spending rate that has pushed the economy ahead and hasgiven us this rate of growth and the diminution in unemployment?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Particularly in recent months it has been a con-sumer-led expansion.
Senator PROXMIRE. Now the budget compromise calls for $46 bil-lion in deficit reduction in fiscal 1989. That would normally have arestrictive effect on the economy. We had a big decrease this pastyear and it should have a restrictive effect on the economy. Itdidn't seem to have, net at least. It would seem that this wouldtend to increase unemployment.
Now there are some economists, notably the Chairman of theFederal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, who's testified in the lastfew days, who suggested that a deficit reduction would not be re-strictive at this time because the effects of reduced Federal spend-ing would be more than offset by the effects of the resulting reduc-tion in real interest rates.
Do you think that the $46 billion deficit cut called for in fiscal1989 will be good or bad for the economy in terms of growth?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I really don't know, Senator. We certainly have aserious deficit problem. I have not read Mr. Greenspan's testimonyand so I'm not sure what he was saying. I have a great deal of re-spect for Alan Greenspan as an economist, but I really can't com-ment on that.
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, that's a very, very important decisionwe have to make. It's a policy decision along with the minimum
76
wage that Congress is going to have to make. We want the bestadvice we can get and all of us have great respect and admirationfor your skill and your judgment. So maybe as time goes on youcan think about letting us know.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I hope that one of the reasons that we getalong well, Senator, is because I try to restrict my comments tothings that I know something about.
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, that doesn't bother us in the Congressat all. [Laughter.]
During the 1960's and 1970's, economists gradually raised theirestimates of the full employment-unemployment rate from about 4percent to about 6 percent-that is the noninflationary rate of un-employment. Recently, the CBO, I understand, reduced its estimateof the full-employment rate to 5.7 percent. Today you're telling usthat we may be falling below that rate.
They suggest that the American economy is currently at full em-ployment. What's your estimate of the full employment-unemploy-ment rate?
We had a very interesting discussion informally before the hear-ing began with Congressman Solarz but we didn t put that on therecord and I'd like to hear what your judgment is.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I think there are really two ways to look atthe full employment-unemployment rate, as the Congressman wassuggesting. One is to look at a noninflationary unemploymentrate-how far can you go without heating up the economy to theextent that inflation begins to take off? That's one approach.
Economists who have studied that-and that was a very big issueat the meetings of the American Economic Association last Christ-mas and there must have been at least 40 sessions on it, and every-one had a different answer. But they seemed to range somewherearound 5 to 7 percent, depending upon the attitudes of the people.Some, of course, were still arguing for 4 percent, but that wasreally the minority.
Senator PROXMIRE. That suggests we're close to the level now.You were telling me earlier and telling Congressman Solarz thatyou thought that the effect of the price of oil-energy prices, andother elements like that were probably more important than theunemployment rate as far as inflation is concerned.
Mrs. NORWOOD. What I was saying was that in our inflationaryexperience of the late 1970's it was clear that oil was tremendouslyimportant and it could be again. There is concern about theupward push from the price of imports. We don't have any realsigns of runaway inflation at this point. There are a few signs I be-lieve. Perhaps Mr. Dalton would like to comment on trends in thePPI and the CPI.
Mr. DALTON. I think the PPI for intermediate goods has beenrising rather steadily for the past 7, 8, or 9 months, after a fairlysustained period of very small increases and I think that's some-thing that bears watching.
Senator PROXMIRE. Let me get back to the principal message youhave for us today. It seems to me that the 530,000 increase in pay-roll employment in February seems almost too large to believe.Over the past year, both the household and payroll surveys haveshown employment increases of 3 million. That makes the Febru-
77
ary gain a little more believable. But the two surveys often get outof line for a period of time and then come back together with afigure like the February employment gain.
The February increase still seems to be at odds with all the othereconomic indicators. The fact that almost all the 128,000 newgoods-producing jobs were in construction with little growth inmanufacturing also seems at odds with other indicators which indi-cate that construction is not doing very well.
What's your explanation for the 530,000 increase in payroll em-ployment? Is that consistent, in your view, with other economic in-dicators?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, let me say first that these are data for Feb-ruary. All the other data are for January. That's the first point.
Second, I would agree with you that 530,000 is a great deal in asingle month; that is why in my statement we averaged the 2months together. That gives you an average increase over the 2months of 350,000, and I believe that that's pretty consistent withwhat we have been seeing.
Senator PROXMIRE. Are there seasonal factors here, unusualweather, for instance?
Mrs. NORWOOD. In January. Not in February. February is amonth with a very slight seasonal component. The change fromJanuary to February may be slightly exaggerated, but if you aver-age the increase since December, you get 350,000. That's not unlikethe household survey, which is close to 300,000. So I think that weare seeing considerable job growth.
What we have had is a lot of discussion about a slowdown in theeconomy. You will recall that last month we cautioned that asingle month of lower growth figures in the job market does notnecessarily establish a trend and I think that's correct-it did not.So I would agree with you that 530,000 is a great deal from Janu-ary to February, but I think that 350,000 on average is quite a real-istic number.
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, the part that really concerns me is thehousing starts were falling throughout last year, real constructionspending was down 3 percent in January, 1 percent in the lastyear. How could the construction industry add more than 100,000jobs in February on that basis unless it was a weather deal?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, partly because it had lost jobs in January.It had been somewhat weak and that may have been somewhatweather related. Employment in the construction industry has onlyincreased by something like 100,000 or 120,000 over the year. Soconstruction has been weak.
Senator PROXMIRE. My time is up.Representative SOLARZ. Feel free to continue if you like. I have
some questions also.Senator PROXMIRE. Well, you go ahead and then I'll come back.Representative SOLARZ. Let me pick up where the Senator left
off. What, in your view, has been primarily responsible for the de-cline in housing starts?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't know. There are those who believe thatthe stock market crash had some effect on consumers' view aboutwhat debt they should undertake. There are those who believe that
78
interest rates had an important effect on it. I just really don'tknow.
Representative SOLARZ. Permit me, Mrs. Norwood, to come backto the minimum wage question for a moment.
For how far back has the Bureau of Labor Statistics been keep-ing the kind of figures that you give us each month?
Mrs. NORWOOD. We have some series, like the Producer PriceIndex, which goes back a hundred years.
Representative SOLARZ. On employment?Mrs. NORWOOD. The employment-unemployment data go back to
the 1940's.Representative SOLARZ. If it's difficult to predict what impact an
increase in the minimum wage will have in the future, perhaps wecan see what impact it has had in the past on unemployment rates.
Would it be possible for you to provide us, in an expeditious fash-ion so this Member at least could make some use of it when wemark up this legislation in the next week or so in the House, whatthe unemployment figures have been for the year immediately pre-ceding and the year in which previous increases in the minimumwage took place. Then, the unemployment rate for the followingyear, both overall and in whatever relevant sectors of the employ-ment pool you think it would be useful to look at?
Senator PROXMIRE. If the Congressman would yield, he's onto avery, very important element here. I tried to do that and didn'thave anything like the expert and official information you can giveus when I did it, but I found it was very positive in favor of in-creasing the minimum wage, but I think it would be very helpfulto have it official.
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think it should be understood that there's noway to develop a causal relationship.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics some years ago-Tom Gavett atthe Bureau-did a study of the minimum wage and I think thatmight be useful to provide to you. That was done a long time ago,but it was a very good study.
Senator PROXMIRE. Why can't you just bring it up to date andgive the Congressman what he asked for?
Mrs. NORWOOD. We'll see what we can do. We can give you anunemployment rate and a minimum wage. All I'm saying to you isthat I don't know that there is a causal relationship.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, I take your point. Nevertheless, itwould be interesting--
Mrs. NORWOOD. If you would like those two numbers, we can cer-tainly put them together.
Representative SOLARZ. As well as the report which you said youhad.
I suppose it would be useful to look at the unemployment ratepreceding the increase in the minimum wage, the year in which itwas increased, and what it was the following year.
Mrs. NORWOOD. We'll see what we can put together.[The following information was subsequently supplied for the
record:]
79
Changes In the Federal sinlum wage end the unemployment rate, 1938-87
Federal Unemployment rateinimum wagse j/ (Annual averages)
YearAll
Amount Effective civilian Teenagers_ _(r hour) dte worker
1938 .9.... . ........ $0.25 Oct. 24 19.0 l.A.1939 ............... .30 cct. 24 17.2 .A.
1940 . .......... 14 61941 .-- _ 9.9 V.A.1942 .-. . ...... 4.7 V.A.1943 ........... 1.9 N.A.1944 .I 9_ 1.2 N.A.1945 .. 40 Oct. 24 1.9 V.A.1946 ........... 3.9 N .A.1947 ........... 3.9 N; A.1948 .-... ___ 3.8 9.21949* .-- _ 5.9 13.4
1950 ........... .75 Jn. 25 5.3 12.21951 ........... 3.3 8.2191 .-- __ 3.0 8.519f3 .-- __ 2.9 7.61954 ........... 5.5 12.61955.-- _ 4.4 11.01956 . . ........ 1.00 Her. 1 4.1 11.11957.-- _ 4.3 11.61958 ........... 6.8 15.9
159 ............. ____5.51 61959 - 5.5 14.
1960'*.-- -..- __ _ 5.5 14.71961 . .. 1.15 Sept. 3 6.7 16.91962 ........... -- 5.5 14.71963 ........... 1.25 Sept. 3 5.7 17.21964 ........... 5.2 16.21965 ........... 4.5 14.81966 .- _ _ 3.8 12.81967 . . ........ 1.40 Feb. 1 3.8 12.91968 .......... 1.60 Feb. 1 3.6 12.71969 .......... 3.5 12.2
1970 ........... 4.9 15.31971 .- _ _ 5.9 16.91972 . .. -- _ 5.6 16.21973 ........ 4.9 14.51974'.::::::::: 2.00 May 1 5.6 16.01975 .2.10 Jan. I 8.5 19.91976 ........... 2.30 Jan. 1 7.7 19.01977 ........... 7.1 17.81978 ... 2.65 Jan. 1 6.1 16.41979 .2.90 Jn. 1 5.8 16.1
1980- ..... ....... . .. 3.10 Jan. 1 7.1 17.8198...... 3.35 Jan. 1 7.6 19.61982* ......... 9.7 23.21983 ........... 9.6 22.41984 ...... 7.5 18.91985........... 7.2 18.61986........... 7.0 18.31987 ........... 6.2 16.9
tw* posar reccuolon yeara... A.- ,ot avilahie.It This Is the principal minimum wage that applied to moot
workers. For workers brought under coverage of the minimumto 1961 1966 and 1974, lower initial mInimum wereetabilehed. These vera gradually raised to the principal
minimum wage.
SOURCE. U.S. Depurtment of Labortureau of Labor StatistiCsV.,rzh 198P
80
Representative SOLARZ. To the extent that economists have stud-ied this, over what period of time do they estimate the impact onemployment is felt? In other words, if you raise the minimumwage, is the impact felt that year or one year later or does it keepworking its way through the economy indefinitely?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, it's very difficult to tell. What economistshave done is to develop econometric models and use data for many,many years to evaluate them, and we have done a survey of theliterature which we could provide to you.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, I would appreciate that.Also picking up on Senator Proxmire's inquiries about a full em-
ployment economy, what seems to be the conventional wisdom orwhat is your own view about the impact on inflation of, say, eachincremental 1-percent decline in the unemployment rate below thelevel of a full-employment economy?
In other words, let's say you assume a full-employment economyis 5 percent. What is the impact on inflation if you get unemploy-ment down to 4 percent? Is there some correlation or formula forevery 1-percent decline in unemployment below full employmentinflation goes up 1 percent or 5 percent or 10 percent?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think that it's generally believed that the oldPhillips curve relationship no longer holds and I believe that--
Representative SOLARZ. What is that?Mrs. NORWOOD. That was that you could draw a curve and as the
unemployment rate went one way the price curve would go theother way. But that generally no longer holds and I think that thechart on real earnings is one exhibit that perhaps shows that.
The real discussion today is, if we get to full employment in someareas, the labor market tightens-will that raise wages? And ifthat raises wages, will that increase inflation?
Now we don't have any evidence yet either of runaway inflationor of very large increases in wages. Unit labor costs are still declin-ing in manufacturing.
Representative SOLARZ. But let me try to draw you out a little biton this. It may be that it's impossible to make these calculationsand nobody has bothered to do it, but from the point of view of pol-icymakers, it strikes me that this is critically important informa-tion. It's one thing to say that further declines in unemploymentcould increase inflation in the abstract. It's quite another to knowby how much it will increase inflation because there is a tradeoff.There are millions of people who are looking for work who can'tfind it. We might be willing to permit a 1-percent increase in infla-tion if you could provide jobs for 2 million Americans that don'tnow have jobs. But we might decide if there's going to be a 10 or 20percent increase in inflation that that's too high a price to pay. SoI think we need some sense of the tradeoffs here in terms ofmaking a judgment about the acceptability of current levels of un-employment even if one assumes that they're pretty much brush-ing up against a full-employment economy. Because it's clearlytrue you could create more jobs, but if that drives up inflation, weneed to know by how much.
You say there are no meaningful calculations along these lines?
81
Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm sure that there may be some and we will tryto review the literature for you, but I can tell you there isn't anyagreement, and I can't say here it is.
Representative SOLARZ. Mrs. Norwood, does your Bureau-I don'tmean this facetiously but it's actually a genuine question-do youand your people sort of simply collect different opinions, or do youattempt to make judgments of your own on these matters? In otherwords, if there are 10 different views of economists on this, do youtry to sort through it and say this makes sense to us and thisdoesn't, or do you just merely assemble the panoply of perspec-tives?
Mrs. NORWOOD. If it's an area in which we are expert and wehave the indepth research to back it up, we certainly can distin-guish. But, you should understand that we have a very small ana-lytical staff. It has been cut considerably in the last 10 or 15 years.So it's very hard for us to keep up with all the things that every-one assumes we're expert on.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, I may be going to the wrong ad-dress and I don't want to belabor you for not doing things whichyou don't have the resources to do. Are you the right address for aMember of Congress to ask a question concerning the impact of re-ductions in unemployment below the level of full employment oninflation or does one go somewhere else for that?
Mrs. NORWOOD. We would not be able to provide much help and,frankly, I'm not sure that the very many people, even those whohave studied it with great care, could provide a lot of help. I wasquite surprised at that issue at the Economic Association s meet-ings.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, is that due to the intellectual bank-ruptcy of the profession or is it due to the fact that we've reachedthe point beyond which human knowledge can take us?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think it's because somehow we approach thingsnowadays assuming that there is certain truth-that there is truth,and that we can find it just by looking for it. And often it is reallya matter of judgment and when judgment is concerned, we believethat if it's judgment all by itself, that that's something that we atleast at BLS should stay out of.
Representative SOLARZ. Now I've heard it said that while there'sbeen a very significant number of new jobs created since 1980-Ithink you said 15 million--
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Representative SOLARZ [continuing]. That many of these jobs are
low-wage jobs and that we have simultaneously lost, particularly inthe manufacturing sector, much better paid jobs. So you have lotsand lots of people who still work but who are working for muchless in lowly paid service-industry jobs than they were in higherpaid manufacturing jobs. Is that true? If so, how many people fallinto this category?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, as I indicated earlier, there has been a lotof work in that subject. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison didsome work in which they concluded that there had been a largegrowth in low-paying jobs. Marvin Kosters and Murray Ross didsome work in which they concluded that if anything, there was avery slight increase toward higher level jobs.
82
I believe that Bluestone made a very great contribution in rais-ing the issue. As I have indicated publicly and in writing, I do notbelieve that he had the full answer. I think that Kosters has movedthe debate forward further and what he has concluded is that theremay be some differences in the experiences of men and women andalso that overall there has been very little change in the distribu-tion of earnings.
I think that the earnings distribution issue is as important as theissue of the good jobs-bad jobs.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, that would seem to me to be, ifyou're right, a kind of decisive refutation of the thesis. Obviously,at any given point in the economy there are always going to besome people who lose higher paid jobs and end up with lower paidjobs. That's inevitable. But if the overall distribution of jobs inpaying different levels remains the same, then I don't see how youcould intellectually sustain the proposition that over a period oftime that the increase in jobs has come about through an increasein poorly paid jobs taking the place of an increase in highly paidjobs. The argument falls of its own weight, unless I'm missingsomething here.
Mrs. NORWOOD. I believe that--Representative SOLARZ. That's what you just said, right, in
effect?Mrs. NORWOOD. What I am saying is that I have not yet been
convinced by any evidence that I have seen that there has been abig shift toward low-wage jobs. That's correct.
We now have 14.7 million people who are working part time be-cause they want to work part time-what we call the voluntarypart time. When you put them in with all the others, obviouslythere is an effect on average earnings. So some people look at full-time year-round earnings and they get a slightly different answer.It's not something that you can just say open and shut, here it is.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, how do you deal with-maybe it'sanecdotal evidence and probably more than that-with presumablythese-there have been, I gather, hundreds of thousands of peoplewho have lost jobs in the automobile industry, the steel industry,these relatively high-paid manufacturing jobs, and I have the im-pression that of these people many of them couldn't find other jobsand others were obligated to take jobs that did pay a lot less.
That is the fact, isn't it, that there have been many people inthat category?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Representative SOLARZ. And that's a real human tragedy, no
question, for them.Mrs. NORWOOD. It's a human tragedy any time anyone loses a
job.Representative SOLARZ.. What's compensating for that? If the dis-
tribution of jobs in terms of the amount of money you earn in dif-ferent jobs has remained more or less the same, where are thehigher paying jobs being generated?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Many of them are in some of the services indus-tries that are growing very fast, like banking, the credit industry,business services, computer services, which are high-paying jobs.We have lost manufacturing industry jobs at the very high-paying
83
end, like steel and autos, but we've also lost jobs at the very lowestpaying end, like apparel and textiles.
So we're losing both at the top and the bottom and we're gainingboth at the top and at the bottom. The debate seems to be which ispredominant. People overuse the data, in a sense.
Representative SOLARZ. Now for the kind of person who has ahigh-paying manufacturing job in automobiles and steel, as a prac-tical matter, if they lose their job, is there any real possibility thatthey can find another job paying more or less the same amount ofmoney?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Some of them have found jobs. In some cases,those wages in the new jobs were high, but in other cases thewages in the new jobs were not as high and they may have neededretraining in order to get the jobs that pay as much. That's one ofthe real problems that we need to address.
We did a survey which showed that there were a little over 5million workers who were displaced from jobs because plants closeddown or shifts were eliminated. About two-thirds of them hadfound jobs and more than half of those had found jobs at either thesame or higher pay. That's the only information that we have onthat.
Representative SOLARZ. If my friend from Wisconsin, SenatorProxmire, will permit me to ask one final question because I seemy time has expired, in your study which demonstrated a declinein real earnings for nonsupervisory workers, is that decline in realearnings related in any way to the tax rate or is this just in termsof their salary?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Those data and that chart that was done by thecommittee staff are based upon average hourly earnings whichdoes not include any bonuses; it does not include 'lump-sum pay-ments; and it does not include fringe benefits clauses.
Representative SOLARZ. So after calculating in taxes, bonuses,benefits, and the like, what would it then indicate? Are people infact worse off taking everything into account than they were backin 1981 in nonsupervisory work?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, for that, one would need to use the employ-ment cost index and we can supply that for the record.
[The following information was subsequently supplied for therecord:]
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: Private Industry
Constant-dollar Indexes for total compensation andwages and salaries
Indexes (1980-100)
Total Compensation (197-a7)
108
100Wa& ' and Salaris (1976-87)
95
90 _o _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1976 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Source Bureau of Labor Statiatica
85
Senator PROXMIRE. It would be helpful if when you did that thatyou made an adjustment-that you would tell us perhaps depend-ing on the level of earnings. For instance, the change in the TaxCode that went into effect in 1987 would have a favorable effect onpeople with incomes that are fairly high-$65,000 and higher.People with incomes of less than $30,000, it is my understanding,will pay as much or more than they paid before.
Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm not aware of any way to do that with anyaccuracy.
Senator PROXMIRE. All right. But if you're going to make an ad-justment for these things, let us know also what you can't make anadjustment for.
Now I'd like to ask you about two things particularly. Recent fig-ures suggest that there has been a strong growth in exports, butmanufacturing employment rose only 19,000 per month in Januaryand February, after growing more than 60,000 per month duringthe second half of 1987. And average weekly hours in manufactur-ing also declined in February.
What accounts for that recent weakness? I thought that themanufacturing sector was speeding up. I'm startled and stunned bythat.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, we're talking about employment, not pro-duction.
Senator PROXMIRE. I understand that, but why wouldn't that befairly similar? Fewer people working wouldn't produce more, wouldthey?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Not necessarily. I think that what we're seeingnow is employers being much more careful about taking on addi-tional work force. Labor costs are a very important part of theirtotal costs and they have been working very hard to keep thosecosts down. We've been talking about that to some extent thismorning.
Senator PROXMIRE. But certainly if there's a growth in manufac-turing production, there should be a somewhat similar growth injobs, isn't that right?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Unless labor productivity improves considerably,and as we have been seeing manufacturing has done reasonablywell.
Senator PROXMIRE. Has it improved enough to make that differ-ence between 60,000 increased jobs per month compared to 19,000?That's a tremendous change.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, remember, too, Senator, we were comingfrom a very low level. Manufacturing employment was going downfor many months. When we began adding jobs, I expected that wewould add more at the beginning. This is only 2 months, in anycase. The growth is very moderate here and you're right, it hasbeen much more vigorous before, but that's not unusual. It is notdeclining. That's the important thing.
Senator PROXMIRE. I asked you for some figures on the jobs in-creases since 1980, 1980 through 1987, by small business and bigbusiness and I got some very, very interesting responses. Duringthat period there was an increase in jobs of 9.5 million. All of thatincrease were in firms that employed 500 or fewer people. As amatter of fact, firms that employed more than 500 people have had
86
an actual reduction of 600,000 in the number of people that theyemployed in 1987 compared to the number that they employed in1980.
Furthermore, the biggest increase were in firms that employed50 and fewer people. More than 50 percent of that increase in jobswere in those relatively very small businesses. It seems to me thatthis has some implications for economic policy, particularly withrespect to concentration, takeover, mergers, and so forth. Whenyou have firms moving in and taking over small businesses, theremay be a diminution in the availability of jobs, is that right?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Anything is possible, obviously. Those data arerather interesting. They are, of course, based on business establish-ments, not firms. So that a company, for example, might have sev-eral small plants or small stores-each establishment is not neces-sarily a business. But I think you're quite right that the trend--
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, I want to make sure that I understandthat. Are you saying then that every McDonald's shop would be aseparate establishment and be computed in the small business partof this thing?
Mrs. NORWOOD. In theory, yes.Senator PROXMIRE. Well, that's not very helpful then. What I
wanted to know was how the small firms-is there any data youcan give me on that?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Not by company.Senator PROXMIRE. Why isn't that kept?Mrs. NORWOOD. Because our list is based upon establishments. As
a matter of fact, the fiscal 1989 budget submission for the Bureauof Labor Statistics includes a proposal to undertake an effort to tryto improve that list to get at that. But our list is an establishment-based list and I believe that we told that to your staff.
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, I wish I had known that. I made an ab-solutely wrong conclusion. I made the argument that it was smallbusiness, and I'm wrong about that. Big business may have manysmall establishments under one roof and you may include McDon-ald's, you may include that fellow in Arkansas who's worth $2 bil-lion and he's one of the biggest retail operations in the country-all those operations would be considered small business I take it, isthat right?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator PROXMIRE. Or small establishments?Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right.Senator PROXMIRE. All right. Well, I'll be plugging away for an
increase in your budget. That's the only one I'm for.During the past 5 years, U.S. manufacturing industries have
made substantial gains in productivity, as you've pointed out. Didthese gains occur primarily because manufacturers closed factorieswith low productivity or did it occur primarily because of a wide-spread rise in productivity in existing factories?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I believe that we have made our basicplant structure much more efficient than it had been in the recentpast. For that reason, by the way, I think that we need to be verycareful in how we look at the figures on capacity utilization.
I don't know whether Mr. Mark has something else to add tothat.
87
Mr. MARK. There may be some evidence to support the conclu-sion that we have had an improvement in productivity in manufac-turing reflecting a reduction in the marginal firms. Output growthin this recovery in manufacturing has been consistent with theoutput growth in previous recoveries, but the employment growthhas been substantially less. This indicates that the larger produc-tivity gains are more associated with employment declines thistime than they have been previously. This, in turn suggests thatmore efficient firms may be remaining and that changes are takingplace in a restructuring of manufacturing.
Senator PROXMIRE. For the record, will you give me the docu-mentation and details on that?
Mr. MARK. Yes.[The following information was subsequently supplied for the
record:]
88
Chart 1. Manufacturing productivity, output, hours, and employment in thecurrent recovery and average recovery in the post-war period.
130125 Productivity120 -
1151 10 -. --
105-100 . . . . . .
140135 Current Recovery130 Output _ -
125
120 i Average Recovery
105
t25
120 Hours115 -- - -
110 -
105 -100120115 Employment
105too
T . .+++++.+.+..+.+.++ .123456789 11111111112
01234567890
Table 1. Changes in productivity and related measures 20 quarters after
the trough of postwar recessions.(Percent change at compound annual rate)
Trough quarter Productivity Output Hours Employment
Manufacturing:1949 IV
1............ 3.8 10.7 6.6 6.1
1954 III ............ 2.4 4.1 1.7 1.51958 11. ............ 3.2 8.2 4.9 3.91961 I.............. 4.6 8.8 4.0 3.01970 IV' ............ 4.2 8.1 3.8 2.9
1975 I.............. 2.4 5.3 2.9 2.51980 III
1........... 3.1 5.6 2.5 2.1
Average cycle 2.8 6.5 3.6 3.1
1982 IV .4.6 6.9 2.2 1.3
lData show percent changequarters.
trough to peak; recovery lasted fewer than 20
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsMarch 1988
90
Senator PROXMIRE. Two other quick questions. One, was the one-tenth decline in the- unemployment rate statistically significant?
Mrs. NORWOOD. No.Senator PROXMIRE. It was not?Mrs. NORWOOD. But it was down two-tenths since November.Senator PROXMIRE. So the decline that we had from January to
February was not, but the decline from December to Februarywas?
Mrs. NORWOOD. From November to February.Senator PROXMIRE. The other question is, the unemployment rate
for teenagers fell six-tenths of a percent in February. Is this an un-usually large 1-month change and, if so, what was going on in theeconomy to explain the improved job situation for teenagers?
Mrs. NORWOOD. The teenage rate has to change almost 1.3 per-centage points in order to be statistically significant. So we wouldsay nothing much is happening.
Senator PROXMIRE. Very good.Representative SOLARZ. Let me ask one final question if I might.You suggested I gather that this impressive record of job cre-
ation-15 million jobs in the last several years-is due largely toour fiscal policy. Am I correct?
Mrs. NORWOOD. No. I said that the buildup in defense and theexpansionary policy that we had, together with the flexibility ofour economy, probably distinguished us from the Europeans. I be-lieve that was the question you asked.
Representative SOLARZ. But the bottom line there, from a macro-economic point of view, the flexibility of the economy is a constantin comparison to Europe. What changed in the last several yearswas that we ran enormous deficits.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, it's one of the things, yes.Representative SOLARZ. OK. From your point of view, if you look
at it in macroeconomic terms, supposing instead of having a verylarge tax cut in 1981 we had kept taxes where they were but hadrun deficits of exactly the same magnitude we've had for the lastseveral years where the deficit was due to substantial increases indomestic spending or infrastructure, education, health, housing,and the like.
Would the macroeconomic impact on job creation have beenmore or less the same?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I can't give you an answer to that offhand.One would have to go through the whole input-output frameworkto find out where the jobs were, what the demand was and so on.So I really don't know the answer to that.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, obviously, there might have been achange in the composition of the jobs that were created, but wouldmost economists then say that if we had run exactly the same defi-cits we've run from 1981 through 1987 but had not reduced taxesand had produced those deficits through an increase exclusively inspending with a large increase in domestic spending, would theoverall number of jobs created have been more or less the same?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, what I'm saying is that I can't tell you be-cause I don't know, for example, whether it takes the same amountof people to construct an airplane as it does to construct a bridge.
91
And in addition, of course, there are the tax consumer spendingissues.
Representative SOLARZ. Well, when I served on the House BudgetCommittee, I remember very clearly the hearings we had with Sec-retary Weinberger who attempted to justify the defense buildup,among other things, on the grounds that it had a positive impacton the economy. The point was made that while it did result in anet creation of jobs, that you could create even more jobs throughcomparable increases in domestic spending. So if the justificationfor it was job creation, you can get more jobs otherwise. Now infairness to him, he wasn't justifying it on economic grounds, but onstrategic, military grounds.
But isn't the conventional wisdom that you generate more jobsfor the buck in domestic spending than you do in military spend-ing?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't know. I just don't know.Representative SoLARz. Do you have any more questions, Senator
Proxmire?Senator PROXMIRE. No.Representative SOLARZ. I think I was deputized by the chairman
in his absence to serve as temporary acting chairman of the JointEconomic Committee. I was stunned by this meteoric rise to thisposition of power on this prestigious panel, but all good thingsmust come to an end.
So let me thank you very much for coming. We do appreciategetting the monthly benefit of your wisdom and your associatesalso.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you.Representative SoLARz. The hearing is adjourned.[Whereupon, at 11:10 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to
the call of the Chair.]
EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT
FRIDAY, APRIL 1, 1988
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES,JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE,
Washington, DC.The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m., in room SD-
628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chair-man of the committee) presiding.
Present: Senators Sarbanes and Proxmire.Also present: Judith Davison, executive director; and William
Buechner, Jim Klumpner, Bob McCauley, David Podoff, Dan Mel-nick, and Chris Frenze, professional staff members.
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN
Senator SARBANES. The committee will come to order.This morning the Joint Economic Committee is pleased once
again to welcome as our witness Janet Norwood, the Commissionerof Labor Statistics, and her colleagues, Mr. Plewes and Mr. Dalton,to receive testimony on the employment and unemployment situa-tion for March.
In addition, Commissioner, I may raise with you some questionsrelating to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' statistical programs inthe course of the questioning period. First, I'd like to make theseobservations.
Throughout the years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and theJoint Economic Committee have worked closely together in aneffort to ensure the integrity of, and strengthen, the U.S. statisticalbase. Both the public and the private sector depend on governmentdata to provide the foundation for economic policy decisions as wellas a wide range of business decisions.
Last year, the Office of Management and Budget proposed totruncate the questionnaire for the 1990 census and to reduce thesample size. In the opinion of many, this would have had a seriousadverse effect on the quality of the census data, particularly someof the data used for BLS programs. This matter was explored bythe committee at length at an August hearing.
Earlier this week, OMB responded to concerns about the pro-posed census cuts by announcing that it had agreed to abide byCensus Bureau recommendations to restore several importanthousing questions to the short form and to retain questions on thecost of utilities and fuels. OMB also agreed to a household samplesize that will be large enough, it is believed, to produce reliabledata for the Nation as a whole and for State and local areas aswell.
(93)
90-832 0 - 89 - 4
94
I might note that 30 Members of the Congress, Senators and Con-gressmen, both Democrats and Republicans, wrote to PresidentReagan about 2 weeks ago urging that the census questionnaire re-flect the best professional judgment of the Census Bureau and thatit not be determined by an OMB decision that did not reflect a pro-fessional judgment as to what was necessary in order to do aproper and complete 1990 census.
This decision to ensure the integrity of the 1990 census, madeonly a few days ago, is a welcome one. In the short run, it will pro-vide us with the fundamental statistics needed for the final decadeof this century. For the longer run, it will help assure that the tra-ditional high quality of Federal statistical programs is maintained.
The committee will now turn to Commissioner Norwood for heranalysis of the labor market statistics for March.
Senator Proxmire, do you have any opening statement?
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR PROXMIRESenator PROXMIRE. Yes. I just wanted to point out a few develop-
ments here that concern me.Certainly the overall figure of 5.5 percent unemployment in
March is very encouraging primarily because it continues a steadytrend in the right direction, of course, of diminishing unemploy-ment.
However, it's interesting that you note right away in your state-ment that the household survey showed a seasonally adjusted de-cline both in the labor force and in employment and you point outat the end of your statement that factory jobs showed no increase,closing out a relatively weak first quarter for the industry.
That concerns me because of the fact that the impression that Ithink we're getting is that unemployment is improving. Then welook at the black unemployment for January, February, and Marchand find that it has increased from 12.2 percent to 12.8 percent.Hispanic unemployment has increased a full percent, from 7.2 to8.2. We find that hours of work in March dropped both in manufac-turing and overall. It didn't drop much but it dropped some.
I notice that discouraged workers, you give us a report now onthe first quarter of the year-the discouraged workers rose by115,000. That's better than a 10-percent increase in discouragedworkers, which is remarkable in view of the fact that the unem-ployment situation seems to have improved.
The workweek for all production nonsupervisory workers on pri-vate nonagricultural payrolls decreased, fell, by 0.2 hours inMarch. And in dollars of constant purchasing power your statis-tics-not in your statement but back in the documentation yougave us-shows in dollars of constant purchasing power that realearnings decreased 1.1 percent ending in February. That puzzlesme because here we have a situation in which unemployment wentdown by a full percentage point and under those circumstances youwould think that wages would rise, but they didn't rise. They felland they fell by 1 percentage point in spite of the fact we had fall-ing unemployment.
Then there's one other point that interested me, and that is thatthe diffusion index has been steadily falling. In November it was
9? 5
71.9; December, 63.2; January, 60; and now it's down in March to55.7. That usually is an indication of diminished demand for laborand rising unemployment.
All of this, of course, is going against what you report to us as afalling level of unemployment over the year.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Senator SARBANES. Before you begin, Mrs. Norwood, Senator
Roth has requested that his opening statement be placed in therecord. Without objection, so ordered.
[The written opening statement follows:]
WRITTEN OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR ROTH
"This morning the Labor Department brings more good news forAmerican workers. The longest peacetime economic expansion in U.S.history pushed the civilian unemployment rate down to a level of 5.6percent in March. This is equal to its lowest level set in May of 1979,and it hasn't been lower than the current level since 1974.
"In addition, more than a quarter of a million new jobs werecreated in March, according to the survey of business payrolls. Thisshows that the economy continues to expand, increasing employment andincome for all Americans.
"Today's employment report is no April Fools prank for Americanworkers. Instead, the joke is on those who have, over the last fiveyears, continually predicted economic disaster. As I've said before,
while the critics have been glooming and dooming, employment has beenbooming."
Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, we would be happy to hearfrom you.
STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER,BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC-COMPANIED BY THOMAS J. PLEWES, ASSOCIATE COMMISSION-ER, OFFICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATIS-TICS; AND KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER,OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS
Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.As always, we are very pleased to be here.The overall unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in March, and
the civilian rate was 5.6 percent. Both rates have edged down sincethe beginning of this year and are nearly a full percentage pointbelow the level of a year ago.
Payroll employment, as measured by the BLS business survey,rose by 260,000 from February to March, whereas the householdsurvey showed a seasonally adjusted decline both in the labor forceand in employment. As you know, such divergences in the shortterm have occurred before. Over the long run, however, the twosurveys generally show similar trends. On balance, over-the-monthmovements in the household survey tend to be more erratic than inthe business survey. Short-term movements thus frequently can bebetter judged with data from the business survey.
The 260,000 growth in the business survey from February toMarch was somewhat smaller than the average monthly gainssince last fall. Most of the job increase was concentrated in services
96
and construction. The services industry rose by 85,000 to close outa strong first quarter. Construction added 80,000 jobs from Febru-ary to March, with most of the improvement occurring in specialtrades, like masonry, roofing, and electrical contracting.
No overall job growth took place in the Nation's factories. In-creases did occur in machinery and printing and publishing, butthese were offset by small declines in 11 of the other industries forwhich data are published in our release. Indeed, March follows 2months of slow growth in factory employment, in sharp contrast tothe rather strong performance of the second half of 1987.
In March, 5.6 percent of the civilian labor force was unemployed,compared with 5.7 percent in February. Although the 0.1 percent-age point change is not statistically significant by itself, this con-tinues the downward drift in the jobless rate that has been occur-ring over much of the past year. Indeed, the rate is now back to thelowest level reached in 1979.
This successful experience is clearly related to our record ofstrong job growth. Another contributing factor has been the re-duced rate of labor force expansion. As we have often discussed,the dramatic surge of women's labor force participation took placein the 1960's and the 1970's. Although women are continuing toenter the labor force in large numbers, the rate of their increasehas slowed. In addition, the birth rate decline in the 1960's andearly 1970's has resulted in fewer young people reaching laborforce age in the 1980's. Over the past year, the labor force has in-creased by less than 2 million.
Our quarterly data on discouraged workers-those not in thelabor force who want work but are not looking for jobs becausethey think none are available-show 1 million persons in thatstatus. This number rose a bit in the first quarter after having de-clined during 1987. Even with this year's first quarter's data, how-ever, a modest reduction in labor market discouragement over theyear remains.
In conclusion, payroll employment continued to grow in March,and the recent declines in unemployment were sustained. Employ-ment in services continued to increase, and construction showedvery strong job growth. However, factory jobs showed no increase,closing out a relatively weak first quarter for the industry.
My colleagues and I would be happy to try to answer any ques-tions you may have.
[The table attached to Mrs. Norwood's statement, together withthe Employment Situation press release, follows:]
Unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods
X-11 ARIMA method X-t 1 ootasd
Month Unad- Concurrent - - (official Rangeand justed Official (as first Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (colo.
year rate procedure computed) (revised) before 1980) 2-8)
(1) (2) ~(3) (4) (6)T (7) (- -- 8) -7--
1987
March.......6.9 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 .1
April ....... 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 .1
May ......... 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 .2
June ........ 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 .1
July ........ 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 .1
August ...... 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 .1
September... 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 .1
October ..... 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 .1
November .... 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 -
December .... 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 .1
1988
January....6.3 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.8 .2
February.. 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.8 .2
March ....... 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 .2
SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABORBureau of Labor StatisticsApril 1988
98
(1) unadjusted rate. Unemployment rate for all civilian workers, not seasonally adjusted.
(2) Official procedure (X-ll AXIMA nethod). The published seasonally adjusted rate fora11 ciilin worker. Each of the 3 avjor civilian labor foree components--agriculturalemployment, nonagricultural employment and unemployment-for 4 age-sex groups--males andfemalee, ages 16-19 and 20 years and over--are seasonally adjusted independently using datafrom January 1974 forward. The data aeries for each of these 12 components are extended bya year at each and of the original series using AR1TA (Auto-Regressive, Integrated, MovingAverage) models chosen specifically for each series. Each extended serie is then seasonallyadjueted with the X-11 portion of the X-1l AEIKA program. The 4 teenage unemployeent andnonagricultural employment coaponents are adjusted with the additive adjustment eodel,while the other components are adjusted with the aultiplicative model. The unemploymentrate is computed by eumming the 4 seasonally adjusted unemployment components and calculatingthat total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by *uemIng all 12 seasonallyadjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series are revised at the end of each year.Extrapolated factors for January-June are coaputed at the beginning of each year; extrapolatedfactore for July-December are computed In the aiddle of the year after the June data becomeavailable. Each set of 6-month factors are published in advance. in the January and JulyIssues, reepectively. of EXployment and Earnings.
(3) Concurrent (as first computed, %-11 ARTMA method). The official procedure forcomputation of the rate for all civilian workers using the 12 components is followedexcept that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component ti seasonally adjustedwith the S-ll ARIMA prograe each month as the most recent data become available. Rates foreach month of the current year are shown as first computed; they are revised only once eachyear. at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example,tha rate for January 1984 would be based, during 1984, on the adjustment of data fromthe period January 1974 through January 1984.
(4) Concurrent (revised. X-ll ARMlA aethod). The procedure used Is identical to (3)above, and the rate for the current month (the last month displayed) will always be thesear in the two columns. However, all previous months are subject to revision each monthbased on the seasonal adjustment of all the components with data through the current month.
(5) Stable (X-ll ARTMA method). Each of the 12 civ lion labor force componente Is extendedusing ARIMA models as in the official procedure and then run through the X-11 partof the program using the stable option. This option assumes that seasonal patternsare basically constant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors asunvwighted averages of all the seasonal-irregular components for each month acrossthe entire span of the period adjusted. As In the official procedure, factors areextrapolated In 6-month intervals and the series are revised at the end of each year.The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted componentsIs also identical to the official procedure.
(6) Total (1-lI ARTtA method). This ti one alternative aggregation procedure, inwhich total unemployment and civilian labor force level. are extended with ARIMA modelsand directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models in the X-1l pert of theprogram. The rate Is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as apercent of seasonally adjusted total civilian labor force. factore are extrapolatedin 6-month intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.
(7) Reidual (X-Il AR1MA method). This is another alternative aggregation method, inwhich total ivilian employment and civilian labor force levels are extended using AlIMAmodels and then directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonallyadjusted unemployment level is derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted employmentfrom seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate io then computed by taking the derivedunomployment level as a percent of the labor force level. factors are extrapolated in6-month Intervals and the series revised at the and of each year.
(8) X-ll method (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the officialprocedure is used except that the series are not extended with AltMA models and the factorsare projected In 12-mnth intervals. The standard K-ll progrem Ls uaed to perform theseasonal adjustment.
;et=dof Adputn nt2 The X-lI AEIMA metbod was developed at Statietics Canada by thaSean lA juAstment and Tisme Series Staff under the direction of Estela See Dagum. The
method is described in The X-11 AXTA Seasonal Adjustment Method by tEtel& see Dagu,Statcitica Canada Catalogue no. 12-564E, February 1980.
The standard 1-11 method is described in X-lI Variant of the Census method 11 Seasonal1q, ettentrPruor.", by Julius Shiskin. Allan Young and John Musgrave (Technical Paperbo 15 uieai of the Census, 1967).
99
N %1 A m It-%United States
DepartmentBureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212
Technical information: (202) 523-1371 USDL 88-156523-1944523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS
Media Contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL8:30 A.M. (EST), FRIDAY,APRIL 1, 1988
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MARCH 1988
Nonagricultural payroll employment continued to rise in March, theBureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.The overall jobless rate was 5.5 percent, and the civilian worker rate was5.6 percent; each has declined four-tenths of a percentage point in thelast 5 months and nearly a point over the past year.
Payroll employment, as measured by the monthly survey of businessestablishments, rose by 260,000 in March, seasonally adjusted, about inline with the average gains over the past year. On the other hand, totalcivilian employment, as estimated through the survey of households, showeda drop of 300,000, returning to the January level.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons, at 6.8 million in March, seasonallyadjusted, and the civilian worker unemployment rate, at 5.6 percent, werelittle changed from February. Both measures, however, have been driftingdown in recent months. Compared with a year ago, the level of unemploymenthas fallen by a million, and the civilian worker unemployment rate hasdeclined nearly a full percentage point. More than two-thirds of theover-the-year improvement in total unemployment was attributable to a dropin the number of unemployed persons who had lost their last jobs. (Seetables A-2 and A-8.)
The unemployment rate for adult women fell four-tenths of a percentagepoint to 4.8 percent in March, the only significant decline among the majordemographic groups. Jobless rates for adult men (4.9 percent), whites(4.7 percent), blacks (12.8 percent), and Hispanics (8.2 percent) showedlittle or no change, while the rate for teenagers (16.5 percent) rose.(See table A-3.)
Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total civilian employment showed a decline of 300,000 in March,returning to the January level of 114.1 million, seasonally adjusted. TheMarch movement followed gains averaging 300,000 per month from September toFebruary. The percentage of the total civilian population that wasworking-the enployment-population ratio--slipped to 62.0 percent, slightly
.below recent r!cord highs. (See table A-2.)
¾'
.1
100
After seasonal adjustment, the civilian labor force declined by450,000 in March to 120.9 million. Accordingly, the labor forceparticipation rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 65.7 percent. The Marchlabor force was 1.6 million higher than a year earlier. (See table A-2.)
Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
Thousands of persons
Labor force 1/.........Total employment 1/..
Civilian labor force...Civilian employment..
Unemployment.........Not in labor force.....Discouraged workers..
115,235120,568113,4867,082
62,899910
122,882115,954
121,142114,214
6,92862,8251,027
122,924
115,878121,175114,1297,046
62,647N.A.
123,084116,145121,348114,409
6,938
62,621N.A.
122,639115,839120,903114, 103
6,80163,208
N.A.
-445-306-445-306-137587
N.A.
Unemployment rates:All workers 1/.......All civilian workers.
Adult men..........Adult women........Teenagers..........White..............Black..............Hispanic origin....
ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Nonfarm employment.....Goods-producing......Service-producing....
Average weekly hours:
Total private........Manufacturing........Overtime............
Percent of labor force
5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5 -0.15.9 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 -.15.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.9 05.2 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.8 -.4
16.6 16.0 16.0 15.4 16.5 1.15.0 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 -.1
12.2 12.5 12.2 12.6 12.8 .28.5 7.9 7.2 8.3 8.2 -.1
Thousands of jobs- - --- -- --- -- --- nCA i IA _9AS 7 I --- --- ---At n
1U,Z93 p1U4,259 103,82/ pIU4,344 pIO4,60625,164 p
25,324
25,205 p25,342
p25,
426
78,129 p78,935 78,622 p79,002
p79,180
pzb2p84
p178
Hours of work
34.8 p34.7
34.8 p34.8
p34.6 p-0.241.2 p41.0 41.2 p41.0 p40.9 p-.13.9 - p3.8 3.9 p3.7 p
3.7
pO
I/ Includes the resident Armed Forces.p-preliminary.
N.A.=not available.
101
Discouraged Workers (Household Survey Data)
The number of discouraged workers--persons who want to work but do notlook for jobs because they believe that they cannot find any--roseslightly, by about 115,000, to 1.0 million in the first quarter of 1988.Over the previous 4 quarters, the number of discouraged workers haddeclined by a total of 230,000. Men accounted for most of the firstquarter rise. (See table A-14.)
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonagricultural payroll employment rose by 260,000 in March to aseasonally adjusted level of 104.6 million. The largest over-the-monthgains occurred in the services and construction industries. Manufacturingemployment was unchanged. (See table B-i.)
The services industry, with widespread employment gains totaling85,000, again led the over-the-month growth in the service-producingsector. Wholesale trade, which has grown steadily since July, added 15,000jobs in March, almost entirely in its durable goods component. Retailtrade, which had added a quarter of a million jobs on a seasonally adjustedbasis during the first 2 months of this year, showed no further employmentgrowth in March. In finance, insurance, and real estate, a rise in realestate payrolls (10,000) was partially offset by the second straightmonthly decline in finance (5,000).
In the goods-producing sector, construction posted a second strongover-the-month gain (80,000). Since September, employment in that industryhas risen by 270,000. Manufacturing employment, which has slowed in recentmonths following strong growth in the second half of 1987, was unchangedin March. Job gains in machinery and printing and publishing were offsetby small declines in other manufacturing industries.
Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)
The average workweek for all production or nonsupervisory workers onprivate nonagricultural payrolls decreased 0.2 hour in March to 34.6 hours,seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek edged down 0.1 hour to40.9. This is the same level as a year earlier but slightly below thehistorically high levels of last fall. Factory overtime was unchanged inMarch at 3.7 hours. (See table B-2.)
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisoryworkers on private nonagricultural payrolls declined by 0.4 percent to122.9 (1977=100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index, at 95.3,was little changed from February. (See table B-5.)
102
Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers onprivate nonagricultural payrolls rose by 0.7 percent in March, seasonallyadjusted, while average weekly earnings were virtually unchanged. Prior toseasonal adjustment, average hourly earnings edged up 2 cents to $9.20,while average weekly earnings decreased 23 cents, reflecting a smalldecline in the workweek. (See table B-3.)
The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)
The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 177.1 (1977-100) in March,seasonally adjusted, an increase of 0.4 percent from February. For the 12months ended in March, the increase was 2.9 percent. In dollars ofconstant purchasing power, the HEI decreased 1.1 percent during the 12-month period ending in February. The HEI excludes the effects of two typesof changes unrelated to underlying wage rate movements-fluctuations inmanufacturing overtime and interindustry employment shifts. (See table B-4.)
The Employment Situation for April 1988 will be released on Friday,May 6, at.8:30 A.M. (EDT).
103
Explanatory Note
This news release presents statistics from two major surveys,the Current Population Survey (household survey) and theCurrent Employment Statistics Survey (establishment su-ey).The household survey provides the information on the laborforce, total employment, and unemployment that appears inthe A tabies, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a samplesurvey of about 59,500 households that is conducted by theBureau of the Census with most of the findings analyzed andpublished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ntst).
The establishment survey provides the information on theemployment, hours, and earnings of workers onnonagricultural payrolls that appears in the B tables, markedESTABLISHMENT DATA. This information is collectedfrom payroll records by tas in cooperation with State agencies.The sample includes over 290.000 establishments employingover 38 million people.
For both surveys, the data for a given month are actuallycollected for and relate to a particular week. In the householdsurvey, unless otherwise indicated, it is the calendar wek thatcontains the 12th day of the month, which is called the surveyweek. In the establishment suvey, the reference week is thepay period including the 12th, which may or may not corres-pond directly to the calendar wek.
The data in this release are affected by a number of technicalfactors, including definitions, survey differences, seasonal ad-justments, and the inevitable variance in results between asurvey of a sample und a census of she entire population. Eachof these factors is eaplained below.
Covterage, definitions, and diffeftenesbetween surveys
The sample households in the household survey are selectedso as to reflect the entire civilian noninstitutional population16 years of age and older. Each person in a household isclassified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.Those who hold more than one job are classified according tothe job at which they worked the most houss.
People are classified as employed if they did any work at allas paid ciilians; worked in their own business or profession oron their own farm; or worked 15 hours or more in an enter-
rise operated by a member of their family, whether they werepaid or not. People are also counted as employed if they wereon unpaid leave because of illness, bad weather, disputes be-twemn labor and management, or personal reasons. Membersof the Armed Forces stationed in the United States are also in-chtded in the employed total.
People are classified as unemployed, regardless of theireligibility for unemployment benefits or public assistance, ifthey meet all of the fr-lowing criteria: They had no employ-ment during the sung week; they were available for work at
that time; and they made specific efforts to find employmentsometime during the prior 4 weeks. Persons laid off from theirformer jobs and awaiting recall and those expecting to reportto a job within 30 days need not be looking for work to becounted as unemployed.
The leohofotce equals the sum of the number employed andthe number unemployed. The unemployment rare is thepercentage of unemployed people in the labor force (civilianplus the resident Armed Forces). Table A-5 presents a specialgrouping of seven measures of unemployment based on vary-ing definitions of unemployment and the labor force. Thedefinitions are provided in the table. The most restrictivedefinition yields U-I and the most comprehensive yields U-7.The overall unemployment rate is U-Sa, while U-5b representsthe same measure with a civilian labor force base.
Unlike the household surey, the establishment survey onlycounts wage and salary employees whose names appear on thepayroll records of nonagricultural firms. As a result, there aremany differences betwen the two surveys, among which are
the following:
- 1 heouhntl ser. nhoush hued 55 u nraler sawot. rs-nsu -urges revest at the f ost MM It; tw beuhmt., -rende .sae Wrsttsrs.Fe Wr-;,otored, ..pnid tany nkon. eri-t hoshold wnoo. andnbers Or thresnt iAned Fo-ec
- The ho.ntoti -urve rtcude weeds o. uspeid kar eons the-npnyrd: the estuhttnot irve doe not
- Th. honthotk wrve 5inrd to them 16 s at aof ad ofs theestbtnm smour is - fmiUte by u:
- The hmrrhno nrye has no dupiaion of iodirdab boesut each i.dieidad utinsntd nnton- ionthe. -blishnest arey. nopoena rkta,
than one boh or ,hnwi aprpreis an ne than ore prunsld hrsosmed eauteb toe ech upprnr2.
Other differences between the two surveys are described in"Comparing Employment Estimates from Household andPayroll Surveys," which may be obtained from the nLs upon
request.
Seasonal adjustmentOver the course of a year, the size of the Nation's labor
force and the levels of employment and unemploymentundergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events aschanges in weather, reduced or espanded production, har-vests, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools.For euample, the labor force increases by a large number eachJune, when schools close and many young people enter the job
market. The effect of such seasonal varintion cam be verylarge; over the course of a year. for exasmple, seasonality may
account for as much as 95 percent of the month-to-monthchanges in unemployment.
104
Because these seasonal evens follow a more or less regularpastern each year. their influence on statistical trends can beeliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month.These adjustments make nonseasonal devlopments. such asdeclines in economic activily or increases in the participationof women in the labor force, easier to spot. To resurn to theschool's-out example, the large number of people entering thrlabor force each June is likely to obscure any other changesthat haoe taken place since May. making is difficult to deser-mine if the levl of economic acivty has risen or declined.However, because the effect of students finishing school inpeevious years is known, the statistics for she current year canbe adjusted so allow for a comparable change. Insofar as theseasonal adjustment is made correctly, she adjusted figure pro-vides a more useful tool with which so analyze changes ineconomic activty.
Measures of labor force, employment, and unemploymentcontain components such as age and sen. Statistics for allemployees, production workers, average weeky hours, andaveage hourly earnings include components based on theemployer's industry. All these statistics can be seasonally ad-justed either by adjusting she total or by adjusting each of shecomponents and combining them. The second procedureusually yields more accurate information and is thereforefollowed by sLS. For example, the seasonally adjusted figurefor the labor force is she sum of eight seasonaly adjustedcivilian employment. components, plus she resident ArmedForces total (non adjusted for seasonality), and four seasonallyadjusted unemployment components: she total for unemploy-ment is the sum of she four unemployment components; andthe ovrall unemployment rase is derived by dividing sheresulting estimate of total unemployment by she estimate ofthe labor force.
The numerical factors used to make she seasonal ad-justimems are recalcublaed regularly. For she householdsurney, she factors are calculated for the January-June periodand again for the July-December period. The January revisionis applied to data that have been published ove she previous 5years. For she establishment survey, updated factors forseasonal adjustment are calculated only once a year, alongwith the introduction of new benchmarks which are discussedas the edd of the next section.
Sampling varlabllityStatistics based on she household and establishment surveys
are subject so sampling error, that is, the estimate of thenumber of people employed and she other estimates drawnfrom these surveys probably differ from she figures that wouldbe obtained from a complete census. even if the same question-naires and procedures were used. In the household survey, sheamount of the differences can be expressed in terms of stand'ard eror. The numerical value of a standard error dependsupon she size of the sample, she results of he survey, and otherfactors. However. she numerical value is always such that thechances are approximately 68 oua of lIfthat an estimate basedon she sample will differ by no more than she standard error
from she results of a complete census. The chances are approx-imately 90 out of 100 that an estimate based on she sample willdiffer by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from sheresults of a complese census. Al approximasely the 90-percentlevel of confidence-the confidence limits used by sLs in itsanalyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ-ment is on the order of plus or minus 328.000; for totalunemployment is is 220,000. and, for she overall unemploy.ment raue. is is 0.19 percentage poins. These figures do notmean that the sample results are off by these magnitude bus,rasher, that the chances are approximauely 90 out of 100 thatthe "trae" evel or ease would not be expected so differ fromthe estimates by more than these amounts.
Sampling error for monthly surveys are reduced when thedata are cumulased for several months, such as quarterly orannually. Also, as a general rule, the smaller she estimase, thelarger she sampling error. Therefore, relatively speaking, theestimate of the size of the labor force is subject to less errorthan is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, amongthe unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rase ofadult men, for example, is much smaller than is the eror forthe jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthlychange in the jobless rate for men is .26 percmtage point: forteenagers, it is 1.25 peecentage points.
In the establishment survey, estimates for the 2 most currentmonths are based on incomplese returns: for this reason, thewestimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all thereturns in the sample haoe ben recived, the estimates arerevised. In other words, data for the month of September arepublished in preliminary form in October and November andin final form in December. To remove enron that build upove time. a comprehensive count of the employed is con-ducted each year. The results of this survey are used toestablish new benchmarks-comprebensive counts ofcmploymeas-against which nionth-to-month changes can bemeasured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changes inthe classification of industries and allow for the formation ofnew establishments.
Additional statlstics and other InformatlonIn order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employ-
ment situation. asS regularly publishes a wide variety of datain this nens release. More comprehensive statistics are contain-ed in Employment and Earnings, published each month bysLS. It is avilable forS8.50 per issue orS22.J0 per year fromthe U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,2020g. A check or money order made out to the Superinten-dent of Documents must accompany all orders.
Emp/o.vment and Earnings also provides approximations ofshe standard errors for the household survey data published inthis release. For unemployment and other labor forcecategories, the standard enors appear in sables B through J ofits "Explanatory Noses." Measures of the reliabilisy of shedata dnwn from she establishment survey and the actualamounts of revision due so benchmark adjustments are pro-sided in tables M, 0. P. and 0 of that publication.
I Iso'lui)
HOUSEHOLD DATA
T*6. A.1. E.t41861.ytI 699 Of th6 pp99timi61 b14998 Aot.-d F- .. Oth6. Uoitd Stt16 by -
(N.4459 11066-4140
HOUSEHOLD DATA
1967 IN1N919998 97 g 98 8
TOTAL
No. 95,50001 P d.IJ5.'?....... . ................... 183.615 155.705 185.647 183.015 195.22 185.70 195.571 195.705 185,847L.b.I.5 .... .......... ..... ... ..... . . .120.099 121.678 121.993 12D,962 122.349 122.472 122,924 123.064 122.839
pfnti9ob 16. ..... . ...................... 65.3 05.5 65.5 65.6 6.1A 6.1 66.2 863 68.0TO.w 1,PIN.& .... . ... ............. . . 1III.965 1 14.198 1I4.60 1 13.191 1 15.259 115.494 1 15.878 1 18.145 115.839
Eopio~~~~~tl.66.p ~ ........A..... ........... . ..... 8 0.9 61.5 61.7 61.5 62.2 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.3R.6.69. Arm.d F t. ............................... . 1.736 1.736 1.736 1.736 i.755 1.750 1.745 1.735 1,736C600 1111 ....... .............0 .....64....... . 110.229 117.460 112.667 111.455 113.004 113.744 114.129 114,409 114.103
A~ints45. ... . . ........ ......................... 2.932 Z7.79 2.902 3.237 3.172 3.215 3.293 3.22 3.204No.gnod.i56 040 .............................. . . 9107,297 109.725 109.954 106.21 110.332 110.520 110.636 1 11.82 110.609
U-rM.o . d ..... ................. . 6,......... 8124 7.482 7.090 7.791 7.090 6.979 7.046 6.938 6.901Sntli &tlt ro........ ........................ 698 6.1 5.9 6.4 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.5
NMot W I . .............lot....s . ................. . . 963A92 694,026 94.154 82.933 62.879 82.898 62.947 67.621 93.206
M9.M I6 56 96611
NoWItotboslDooo PoPsWoion 6696............................. 816 95,089 89.166 00.1196 88.049 66.824 89,033 69.090 89.968Lahb. lots.... .................................... 66,004 07,404 67.521 67.590 66.019 68.036) WM24 66.343 68.148
Poftoo so ot.? .... ............................... 76.0 75.7 75.7 76.6 76.6 76.5 76.6 78.7 76.4T056 .OP&...............................y ..... 82.... .62591 63.25 93385 93.293 04,974 04.245 04.39 604.936 64.332
E,,990 t160.p~ftAWlot 96......................... 706 79.0 79.1 71.7 72.2 72.2 72.3 72.5 72.18.W1, A.114 d18 F-t6.-............................ 1,575 1.577 1.573 1.575 1.593 1.569 9,589 I.57 1.573C~ Pod......... .......... ........ ........... 80,718 61.675 61,992 61.666 62.569 8.606 67.666 93A50 82759
Uo.o,P10.d . ..... .................................. 4.653 4.232 4.136 4.327 3,045 3.795 3.847 3.707 3,616SoltlpVIoYol.0 ot.W....................... ......... 7.0 8.3 0.9 8.4 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.8
W661.-. 1601y 666 .1do-
NotototSSlotD.i .~. .............................. .oos'95.729 96.006 96.679 95.729 I96.76 96448 96.539 90.606 96.679Lb. - ....ot.... .....t.............'........52.106 54.195 54.973 53.392 I 5.33 54.442 54.689 54.740 54.491
flol.p"Uo ro......' .................. ..... ... 55.5 06.1 56.0 65A I 564 56.4 06. 56.7 56.4T056 6tto.Yd ...... .. ......................... ... 49.674 50,644 519216 49.908B 59.885 59.249 51.482 51,909 51.107
R..I601 A011d Fo. ................... -............... 161 159 193 169 182 169 969 156 990o660 Vbyd106 .. .. ....... ...... ... .. ..... 49,513 50.795 51.095 49.797 56,823 59.0693 59229 595 592 1.44
U.1.6lrpyos8 . ... .. . ................ - 3.432 3.350 Z.955 3.404 3.245 3.193 3.20 3231 aoosSo wm tmw.. ........t...... .... ......... ... .690 .5 8.9 5.5 6.5 8.0 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.5
696;:6 0906;!11.t.8654 0098 0611 9601066.6196696.6 0 o6kO
9145589 111001 89 960. A.4 Fot. t106.-d I1 9P. Uf09d
* TOW -6 r .lltt.t 9. p.-d t U10. nb18001i0P99
A41.4d Fot.).
106
HOUSEHOLD DATA
TObl. A-S. EI.40.1 5.o .f thl. 000.. Pop.9100 ty oo .9,4
(N11.M-. Vu.0.b0)
HOUSEHOLD DATA
Ncd 9 w O3od d.9d 9...Jw odjpw9d'Emoloymm .9819.. -0.0.14my.9.bom-5- - -ByWA
M.I. Fob. D4f. MV. N40. C9c. J-l FW M..18?7 1988 1968 19s7 1987 1887 1888 1888 19a
TOTAL
Oo*.o n.19 ..808j pop.48n....... .. . .. _ . . 1.82.179 183.88 184.111 182z179 1 83470 183.820 1 83522 183.98, 18411I0084.1 s.... ..I8.M 119s942 119.957 11982041 12D9.58 128.79 2 121.175 1212348 1280.3
P.51om0.So 99.8.............. ................ 5.0 85.2 85.2 85.5 85.7 88.7 85.9 88.0 38&7E . . .. ............. 110.229 112.4850 112.857 111.455 113.504 113.7"4 114.128 114,409 114,103E01P18 pwA;"i,1........... ........ . .............. 80.9 81.1 81.3 81.2 81.9 81.9 8W. 82. 82.0
U i nr..8.. 2 B4124 7.482 7.090 7.781 7.090 ,978 7.048 8,s35 68850n901p1y110 .................................. 86.8 8.2 8.8 8.5 5.8 5.8 5.8 8.7 9.8
H.. 20 Y8 n v-94.r
CmkS- nO*W91i,000 pqftm............................ . 78.303 88.20 88.280 78.303 79.880 80.002 88.120 88.8 8ePoI..o 100.101.. .81.82 3 82.30 82.230 81.933 s2.088B 62248 82.440 828 82Z497P.d .5 .77.8 77.8 77.5 78.1 78.0 77.8 77.9 7812 77.9
Eo01y9.1~ ....... ...... ....................... 7.752 58.828 58.807 58.388 59,184 50.185 59.287 55.825 19,407El80y-I.ppfttl. ..... 72.8 73.1 73.3 73.6 74.1 74.8 74.0 743 74.0
Agoi.-... ................................... 2. 28 2.027 Z.109 2,361 2.287 2.28 2.32 2.28 2.29Non.g1o0W501W ifta.......................... ..... 55,551 58.508 58.887 58.019 56.887 58.887 16.98 57.34 57.184
ULW-W05ly~d ........................................... 3.941 3.578 3.432 3.553 3.135 3.063 3.1I4 3,071 3.MU-mi. ,-,11191 10.8................................ .4 5.8 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.9
Wo-- 20 y39 .94 -1r
0001.1 n019955.091 05481............. ............ 88.321 89,178 88.281 88.30 88.823 .89.010 89,110 88.178 88.2813108. 801 ... . . . . . 49.374 50.407 50.478 49.414 50.254 55,381 5.,558 18.848 508,42PE.onp.b.o S..... .................................. ....... 55.9 58.5 58.5 55.9 58.8 58.8 58.7 58.8 0 88.811010594.on''ni 48.5231 47.7314s 48ss.051 48.582 47.834 47.780 47.977 48.085 48.132
53 19,55.. 527 3. 3.8 52.7 53.8 53.4 53.8 83 .8 9 8AE d.5 5.5.82 384............... .................................... 3SW7 848 8054 8w8Non-g94oL5t.i841.. .. . . 48.001 47.162 47.478 45.988 48.8 47.107 47.231 47.301 47,478
U0.l.psy4 . .... . 2.843 2.893 2.425 2.832 2.88 28611 2.58 Z.8235 2.411U901y~.919................ ... . ........... 5.8 5.3 4.8 5.7 5.2 5.2 561 si 4.8
808.th . 181 II 198w
01881 111.1955198119 P08i480lw..........................14.555 I4.988 14.551 14.555 14.8103 488 45 14 1409 KM 8K 14.581Chf W8o t ...88 .....1 ............... ............... 7.257 7.331 7.243 7.858 8.041 8,113 8.177 8.011 7.88
Potiop.1o0191 . ................... ..... . 1...... 0.6 58.2 49.8 54.3 54.8 55.5 18.0 5489 12.8
E001011140.0P1451.................... ........ ~ 40.8 42.0 41.2 "4. 45.7 4886 47.0 4835 4580A83i.S,..... . ........... ..... . 202.... 181 218 274 23 274 323 283 288N_0gbor_4U .0 .0 ..................... .... . 5.745 5.839 5.781 6.219 8.487 8,535 88542 8.488 8.58
U-bPOoy.d.............. ........................ . 1.341 1.211 1.234 1.408 1.339 1.304 1.312 1.232 1.301U. o 1910........... . . 184 18.5 17.0 17.8 18.8 18.1 18.0 15.4 18.
1h9 PW08 . h.999 - 1 dj890. I-s.. ,, * 7ol .1 9 a d.0.Vm 0 . 0WW a _099o cr49088 10 9 8P991 V. 019 M - - - 0y04980.
107
HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUJSEH4OLD DATA
TOW8 A-S. E.,p16¶59818 85668t1 .1,41g P68,41
1. by I8. .. .& ^M.854 f 188 1018 8
R*I4.s., 064.4
988 88987 . ~ 191. 1 ge .1 1.87 . m NSI d8
Co68o 44481655.59914 pop~~i.Son ........... ........ 158.5 157.773 i 57.188 158.581 157,448 157.5SU 157.878 5.7 157.88CM488, 106 lo.4 ............ 102,137 0.388 10.3X8 102.83 103.731 103.807 145.32 154.5 104.171
P910089509 W.619 - - -------...-.-.-.- 5.2 85.5 85.5 85T 85.8 88.0 881 88.3 880Enspioyod ........ ..... ..... 58. ,032 97.815 988.0 7.074 88.482 98.779 89.044 96.474 881274
E.0,,, -R51,8.91iP 41 . 9 .. . 81.3 62.0 82.2 820 62.8 82.7 82.8 82.0 82.D
5 9 6 1 9 1 1 9............5......8... ....... 6.105 5.579 5.185 5.782 5025 5.128 5.2D8 5.056 4157Ufl.. 1891116,,- .16.. .............. - 6.0 5.4 5.0 5.8 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.7
M8.% 28089-~ 898Oof.9. Ib61f10. S 0.9 54.268 54.27 54.07 54.281 54.388 54.450 54.600 M=52
7519p.b. t ..... ..... . ...... 79.2 77.8 7729 78.4 78.5 78.2 78.3 78.5 79.2E;8949184 . 5-.50A 51.551 51.723 51.371 51.889 52.548 52.053 5228 52.245
En~~p~~os.11.111.8084509 1859'. . ......... 73.7 74.0 74.2 74.5 74.9 74.9 74.8 75.2 75.0Un.-lo819 .... ... ....... ...... ....... . :: 3.088 2.717 2,59 2.728 F,412 2.23 Z402 2.28 5277
Un..1111 m M111 1............. ........ ....... . 5.7 5.5 4.6 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2
W988168 28 Y- 88,85CnA .1 .1959 ..........1..................1 ..... 41 824 4Z.749 42.769 41.977 42.484 42.569 42.710 42.915 42.841
p.o159995 .....8.... ... ..... .................... 051 56.1 58.1 52.4 55.8 05.9 58.1 8.5 58.2E41poy.rW......... . ....................... 38829 40.790 41.101 398900 40.808 40.712 40.89 40.885 41.183
E 1p51118p18.Oo ti. ti 1.5 ......................... . 52.7 53.5 028 52.7 53.4 53.5 53.7 53.8 54.0U-l47IMIy~d ; ............. . ............ 1.995 I 589 I 88 18867 1656 1.057 1.813 1.830 1,658
UII.1191 ....... ......................... ... ... 4.8 4.8 389 4.7 4.4. 4.4 4.2 4.5 3.9
8.88 I t89 .1 191 Y8049841999 o .. ....................... 8.287 62381 8.312 6.882 6*88 8.970 7.0817 8.885 6.87
p.bq96b. . .........~. ...... . 53.3 537 52.1 5756 57.7 51.8 5886 568 57.2E 5.343 5.489 5.378 5601 5.917 4.021 6.00 6.106 5.84
9=,1l141.061 w 1.59...... .......... . . 4428 48.2 452 4837 4926 58.8 51.2 511 49.15.9.81i.... .. 1.024 60 934 15049 9m 949 962 M8 982
U-0.9p191 ,98 1..........- 1.1 14.0 14.8 15.3 14.1 13.8 4.9 12.4 14.1M8........ ...... .. 182 14.8 17.1 16. 14.8 14.9 14.4 12.2 55.75011. I... . . 3.8 13.2 12.3 13.7 13.3 12.3 13.8 12.7 12.4
BLACK
0891f915584pwwb .19 ..................... . 20249 20.569 20.598 20.548 20.482 20.508 20.525 2504 2018804889 .f . ........ .. .1948............ 12.657 12.985 12.832 12.853 13.123 13.215 13.222 13.108 13.098
P8,5b 54 8 ~.. .. ............ . . 62....... 7 63.0 82.8 63.5 64.4 54.4 94.4 54*0 - 8.66.4.81y5d ........ 10.927 II.388 11 .73 11 .072 11.~585 11.0 W 11I I 8 11 .504 11 .420
E.1,~i9,l~l..848,i859l1 .590 ... ...... ....... - 54.0 54.8 54.7 54.7 08.8 54.6 58.5 08.9 06A
- ...W . 1.780 1.678 1.659 1.781 1.854 1.810 1.614 i'in 5.87U989819y111018 865 - ... ........................... 13.8 12.9 12.1 13.9 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.8 12.8
wm~ 20wY1 4
68
0.8.11959b19f4 . ,. . ........... 5.9,49 80054 8.081 5.865 65045 8.943 6.115 8.1885 8.127P.60 MM-------........... . .........- 74.2 74.7 74.4 7480 74.5 74.3 75.0 75.8 75.0
89184.198 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~50 G. ,3 5.28 5430 5.430 5.487 5.472 5.428E091145l~~~~l98.808148S91 16590 . ~ ~~~~ 8513 85.6 88.7 88.1 88. 66" 875 87.1 88.4
1J19998-W........d. 713 742 712 697 615 813 819 854 86n1Jnk 81l1.y-a8 ... . - ..----- ..--- . 12.0 12.2 11.7 11.6 10.2 16.1 10.1 11.3 11.4
C.. W- 9148 … 5.51 6,114 8.112 5.994 0.27 8.224 6.244 8.131 6.138P98pw.88916 58.2 56.7 5526 595 8029 61.0 61.1 5529 S9.8
B.519y84 -. ................ ~~~~~~~~~~ 5.211 5.462 5.443 5.230 5.537 5.544 5.500 5.495 5.465E.8954511098.914854598 1.090 ......... ~...._____ 51.7 52A4 3.1 5129 54.3 54.3 5413 53.7 52.
U.4881p10.d --- 780 652 M8 764 879 680 854 838 6710.919140yl11 .886...... .. . ............. ------- 12.7 10.7 102 12.7 1025 16.9 11.1 10.4 102
0C89190540 ...... .. 786 757 740 884 941 946 8683 678 834P.dd509 16835.5....-.... 0 3428 34.0 40.1 431 43.7 282 40. 38.
8,1840588 .....~~~~~~~~~. ...... ~~~~ 401 473 481 544 822 821 561 527 28E~~pios1..46.808siS504 16590 .- .... ~~~~~ 22-3 2128 21.2 2012 28. 28.1 2502 24.7 2412
U1981846584 -. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 287 284 278 320 319 317 30 333 308U-VWM01l89886 t 37.4 37.5 3726 27.0 3329 33.4 35.0 28.5 3829
M81. 3.82 42.8 40.2 38.1 32.2 33.5 35.1 42.0 35.0
50181 . .................. 38.0 32.5 35.3 28.0 35.1 33.4 342 34.7 35.0
0- .. Uw9166 M W .14 11.~
108
HOUSEHOLD DATA
T4Ift A-S E'6Ioy.- UM O "9811, 0I6MI P6.4950 by -a, -& M6 NI6I I I9'4 W.0-.owft'..d
HOUSEHOLD DATA
o8 814 .4.66
96Y01-..M.I........Nld -- - -
mon4010 MI. Fet MF .6. 88. .. .10 6 MV.1_87 1968 I968 1967 1967 1987 lo8w 1968 1968
HISPANIC 0RIGIN
C 011 P ................ .... 12.732 13.153 13.182 12.732 13.043 13.062 13115 13.153 13.182C.o600 980 50886 .8.32 8,888 8.728 8,385 8.783 8.772 m 78 8.9017 8.603rPsB .5 o +. 5 o,,0- 86. +. + ... . 85 87.7 88.1 05.9 872 . 7.1 87.7 a.s 88.7Eosnpl. .. . ..... ......._.... 7.547 8.086 7.980 7.832 7.978 8.o07 S. 8238 8B07NEflnS0,o,-yp ........ .. ._r__. . . 55.3 81.5 80.8 55.8 81.2 81.8 82.5 8 2. 81.3Us'6o,~Iycd . . ....- - +- .--.. 780 820 73 783 705 714 842 749 724
-r.WP-n6n ........... ..... ..... 9 .4 9 4 9.1 8.0 8.1 72 8.3 82
Th, p1op,.8hw fium - Wd &115 fOrlE:- 049191 lor0 d
'KIn w M INo 0 . of t-N a.* . W H Now h kdN1 h bfltS V. d W m W~iop
Y~T A-C SM.1dhd
V( r._d
CHARI
091.a -V0iopa4 18 6 Y .M .... ..............Us06d 1668 6M .... ...........................U. w " l, m- N't p ................... ..... ....
Wo n w o n.t fhn . ....... .............. ..... ....... .....
MAJOR HICUSRY 4lD CLASS OF WORKER
A~hk
SH6ay6 01081 ~ . ...... ....... . ____.864 0d116 ._..
f * h= - -. -.._ ...... ............... .... .............. _....
W P po V vry ....................... __._____._.._Go ... W .....____ _ __ ._.._ ...._.._
Plhft 0daki ........ .. _.,__ .__..,_.... ......Pd .t.h u..hit .... ... ....... .. ...... .__....._.._...
Urew idro r __ ....... ..........._. _
859w vn ~rd rw ___
SO 9 e ... ...... .U.60d 18wk. . .......
PERSONS AT WORK PA~RrTom,6
Al W15.91.v
Pona- f ft~ I h .r .................. ................ ..
PSI rJ rcr6 18ic 0rr' _
SV1k w..k ........ ...............P. 98,,. d ,, 1066868 _60wVOkbO86y 8M180 . . ............................
MW4. P.6 r r.
8967 I968 sr Fi110.32 112.460 112.96739.72s 39 .s 40o15727.937 28 477 28.7785883 0.157 8.178
M_. r18001967 ] 197
- D Fe19617 1I68 igeS
113,744 114.128 114,40640,711 40,404 40.47528249 28,441 28.7078.227 8.168 e.157
111.455 113.804
40. 054 40.84527.e66 28. 755.946 832t7
1,4941.303
135
98.092laem
1.134
7.921284
1.4071.274
79
101.3411727084.071
1.08782.96C4
8.149213
1.407
01194128
101.51417 ,1884.319
825
I5.128Z.52D2.347
15,587
4.3222.3712.307
15,131
1.458182
63.26
a2.0428so2
270
59591.4071 5
101.64317.116
8.23325
1.4501586
501.96717.06484.933
12w083733
248
5.282
2.21142.83814.071
14.222
5.22 5.3772.440 2.6S12.504 230
I5:145 15,448
4.m 5.1172280 2,5042.434 2.29
14,5 I5,005
1.eee1.454
138
102.50717,18785,310
1.14784.1838.180
237
2.64014,571
5. 140
2.504614.096
51,771.44
502.983
8s.735
84.56
228
5.3882.4762.511
14,587
5,2542.2272.457
14.123
llK10340.491
8.600
1.432
64.196
245
9.343
I r20
14.6113
810.62.3222.475
14.141
S.459 55342.431 2.4082707 2.r85
14,205 14,523
5 180 93412.234 242025e2 2Z56753,717 14.084
._ _' E d6 8 0 '*WM . job 586 61 -ol di cu . 6666y
P. 9 I409h 60 M l0618 *-M . 160W _ W
inl.7U
HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA
Too. A-S.P 0.1g01 - -, boO. - --,A d014foo 8W .. pi.,n . W th. W*00 f-. .0015d~Iod
am" 19-m trydf
LLI P- -- Oyd P- M.1.1
U-2 Job I.8101.p-W000d1th. 011*00 .5 WoM ........................ .............-... .... 32 3.0 228 2.7 2.6 206 2.6 2.6
10-3 U-1.ipl7. P-,n 25 Y- W - .o01 0 -.1 Of p0 1,1-1
U04 U-Toyp0pd k614k1.000b068011011 p0.-1of01U.kA4d. l1.01o . I........ ............. ................... ..... .. 0.........- .2 5.0 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3
0086.6N lbt. 1.Wd800 Albo-d 90 .......... ......... . ............. 0.5 6.2 5.0 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.5
U-0b 7004 o~lb poyk -. p0.0.001thd1.1110*01bf0.1 .........0. ...... ...... 6.6 0.2 0.0 5.9 5.7 5.0 5.7 5.6
U /26.1ot 0.9.111.1100- p. 1120 1.0081 Pkp.0.1
th. 01*010b. W1. h-. 1/2 0161 V~M.p0111 0 0010............................9.0 9.5 0.2 0.1 6.5 0.0 90. 7.8
107 T0101101-4611.1000,0 Pk. 1/2 p1.-b-0 p06001111Pk. 11/211.W - P W011011 00 0s010 1 Pk01. p6ft--01001.0150111890 th -d p00001 b110010510 f-Pk.d.M00010d01001500.8 1/20 d If p.11-4610185I. 0.............................9.9 93 9.0 0.8 0.8 NA NA N
NA. -nt100.1
T~~bb " SW..ftd -WWV-d ~9*010.0
Moo. Ftb. M.. M.. N.0. D.. J0. Fb. M0..10.7 1980 1068 1967 1987 1087 1808 108 100
CNARACTERW6M
T00.1060' 010o1. .. ,d. 7,701 0820 6.801 65 5.9 5.8 5.0 5.7 5.00601.1 9011 010 010.... 4,327 3.707 3.018 606 0.0 5.7 5.8 5.8 9.7Rm 120p018.0ooo W- 3.553 3.071 30089 57 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.9 4.8
W-.1n. 295y-.11510,Z - 232 2035 Z.411 5.7 5,2 5.2 5.1 52 4.064010.... 0 1 18to 1o.. ... 1.4806 1.22 5.301 1705 16.6 10. 10.0 15.4 16.5
M061. lon M.1 P9.0 .. I713 1,428 1.422 401 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.4Mwt M.6 w.1.nopb.pl.o- AN13 Im 1,188 41 4.2 423 42 4.1 4.0W10.11011.00.110f8.0 . ......... 03s 557 497 987 8.5 8.4 8.8 8.3 7.5
P04,1-. V0.k0 6 . 248 5.548 5.400 0.1 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3P.11W.461 10611 ____...... 1.571 1.37 1.33 91 0.2 8.5 0.3 7.8 7.7L05Oo68...11..loe - - - 7.4 28 0.0 (L0 0.6 0.5
NO..okojbo0 WM"1. -Mg .10101.1 -0.M. -. 50-80 5.175 5.061 0.5 5.8 5.7 528 5.7 5.0G00.p.1161 085... .. ...~..... 2.35 1.80 1.960 00 825 0.4 7.1 029 625
Lo" 6~~___ 2 68 02 9.5 7.0 0.0 7.7 728 729C o . 0 1 ~ , 702 700 M0 12.4 1026 1026 12.2 51.0 10.7M .1 o 0.8 0 8 1 9 1.404 I.22 1.153 0.7 5.3 .5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2
waft90.0106 us0 70 083 0.0 460 428 5.5 Si 52P858,8.w go6....................... 10 0 7 7.0 5.8 526 5.0 0.3 5.3
wama ........hoO5jo 3.480 3.10692 3,101 58 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.2T-O.1190.0 d W9468 f o - -..~------- 201 238 272 4.5 4.5 46. 326 3.0 42V~W101o.41.1 "f.t01I.167 1,470 1384 7.3 0.0 02 0.1 0.4 02sF60'010.-61.i. WL.51.00 . I 1.53 1,470 1.345 489 42 428 49 4.5 62
G,- It 111w65. 5....13 403 480 305 3.4 32 5.0 22 2.8Au00..W Spog.11M0y.v ------o- . 200 181 203 1028 0 1.1 15.0 11.5 102 1.02
090.10009110060. p.1P.-*d0. d1061*01b010-Aqogo1 h-.110 bg y0L. l41.01p10906 W U t10.101096.1.0
0.l01 101 .8960111.101 I06010*V .MM M*10. f.10.h
90-832 0 - 89 - 5
110
HOUSEHOLD DATA
T*16 A-?. D.Rdw of 04...el.0
HOUSEHOLD DATA
W.*. of .66 . y -u 0inI .n…na
M.. Fb8. M.. M.. NWn. Cat. .J-. Fit. M..1067 109t 1666 1067 1067 1067 196 low 1ns0
DURIATION_
Lcun a.5 __._. 3.008 2.973 Z754 3A2.2 3218 3229 3t069 3.094 3DOt 14W.W. Z_ .22=. .411Z02___ . 72 02 232 ZOSS 2.02 1 2.6 I 5 iI45 2.10
10 ,.6 0W … ...... Z...234 1.00 LG 2.050 1.834 1.701 1.733 1.740 I'M001529s b w ___an77 1.106 944 no 692 a3n e4l s6
27 Osk. Wd. .. -... . I.0 M5 So1 III1 035 a0. 604 M0 Nss
A06sq (l.WV 8MOM I1 oIM ----- 1.6 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.4 13.7M~~dS08n~~...l0.4.. - ...-......... - 8.2 ~~~~ 7. 0.0 6.7 6.1 6.0 0.4 0.4 06.M7d Calia i. o_. . .. ........ _.--- -. __ .le ........... .......... ... 2 3 es .91 wWt 3
PECEIIT DISAimIunm
Total .,wPlow - ........ .... .. 100.0 100.2 I00. 102. 10010 102. 100.2 102.0 100.0L- 011 0 .Oks..~ 37i 29. 38. 42.) 42.4 48.2 42.6 443 44.2S .14 WOW. =__ _ .2 4.2 32. 30.e 2a.7 292 31. * 3. 30.10 W old c8- _ _ _29.3 25.5 292 293 25.0 296 243 29.2 29.2
15t 29 6 . . 14.7 13.L 1. 12.1 12.7 12.8 11.0 12. 12.0
Tdl7 A- 0L R,, hrI
O h_)rn-
MV. Fob. MW. Mu. NM. D.- w Fab. M..1067 ION 1968 1067 1907 107 1968 1066 1906
Job Ia. -. ---------- ------- o 427 3.739 32.00 3.791 3.307 3W2008 326 3.207 3.103On 1671 ._..0_______._ 1206 1. le 1.063 IOU 876 M 6614 0.
C job b _.__ _ 2.021 2ssS 23 Z71e Z429 2.344 2= 2.32 oMJob 160d-n - _____ 34 we6 1.012 966 829 946 1.062 061 1.076=..4 = -2.107 1.074 1.764 2079 1.074 1.4 1.017 sT51 IWs
N. M _ ___ 57 702 7es 9052 6s6 so 064 6187
TMUal __.--__--- - - -- 100.2 1022 100.2 102. 2 l0oo. o 10oo 100.2 100.2 100.2ob . .1..l -_ -. 92.0 S 00. 49.0 4s 46. 42.7 45.2 409 402On 176l 14._ 10.2 10e 53 12. 12.4 122 12.0 1.7 ILI006.14896Ws.. ~ 37.2 34.2 34. 35.7 34. 3225 32.7 33.2 32.7JobG .. ._ .. ........ ….. .. . .. .6..... _ 11.6 13.2 14.3 12.7 131 13.5 153l 13. 17
FIb. ....... -. - _ . .. = 26' 20S4 2.2 26.0, 261.0 27 6 270 27A 29.0N1., mn 0 10........ _._ _ _.__ ... ..... 0 10.4 11.1 122 I. Ili 12.5 12.4 12.0
UNEOYED AS A PERCET OF THE
Job -__ _ 3.6 &I Lo 32 2.7 Z7 2. 2.6 z6Job w A_ . .8 A A .8 .A . A .0RS. b _. IJ IA 1.0 1.7 I IAe 1.6 1:. 1.9
__ ........ .7 .7 .7 A .7 A .7 .7 .7
ill
HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA
-UWW 40w
M.,. Fd Mg,. M. .N 0M ._ Fb. Mg,.1967 1969 1968 1967 1967 1957 1969 1969 1969
TotI. 16 y.. ._ __.._ 1 7.791 9.939 6.691 6.5 5.9 5.89 5.9 5.7 5.8
16 124 1., 2951 2.929 2637 12.9 1 1. 112 11.6 11.1 II.?'a61.9195.6 .. .... . ........... 1.406 1.2 1.I 17. 16.6 1 D11. 15. 16.
e b......... . 642 090 199 19.9 19.2 179 18.7 17.4 17.9t~o 98 Yg .. . 741 695 73 62 1. 47 14.5 13.9 15.9
291.247_ . 1.545 = 1.93 ,.336e 10.2 0 6 9.1 87 9.125 .y-, . .... ... 4.38 4.419 4161 5. 4 4 5 4.5 4s 4.2
25zs b4 -n ...... ............. -... 4.339 3,929 32730 53 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 435S 5
.n *r d o 503 499 441 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.a 3 z9
Mm1 I s..61 19,-___.., 4.37 3.797 3.816 9.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.6 9.716e924 == ------. 1.506 1.333 1.423 132 120 11.7 12.2 11.3 2.1
16 19 19 V- .............. ~774 636 727 19.9 17 .2 17.2 16.4 158I .161 917 Y. - 347 265 313 29.3 204 193 19.4 1.9 1
16 9 9 . .. .... _. - 426 334 414 17.9 14. 153 14.9 14.7 17.20 t. 24 V_- .......... 9......... . ............. 812 e 97 66 10.2 9.2 6.7 9.9 9.0 9.1
255. 6-9.,1 - 9 Z." 2.73_ 2.390 2.395 5s 4.4 4.4 44 4.3 4.325ID94 l65 %...2.1 2.9 2.99 9 46 4.6 45 .4.5 4.555 bS g,. =o_ e31 . 385 259 3e 3.5 32 4.0 3.4 3.4
waSWI. 1676' Y .191 o. 3.4e4 3.231 zs965 8.9 69 9.9 5.9 5s16192495.1. . -- ......~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1.369 1.163 1.214 12.4 11.2 10.7 19.9 19.9 11.2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1.92 1.14 ;2 1.2 1
16 4=19 I .32 696 174 re16 '1e 14.6 1se 15. 15.2le 1970 y . - --- .--- 316 259 259 1996 179 162 17.9 16.o 16.616 D19156 .......... 319 301 310 14.3 14. 14.1 14.1 13l1 14.2
291924 Ys _____ . 733 9s6 940 1o.1 6.6 .4 92 9.4 9.125 V-9 26V_ _..0 _ .123 Z202 1.776 59 .7 4.7 .7 4.1
25 1 954 y 1- 2 1.=31 se.41 4 3 4. 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.4.55V.. . ...................... . 165........ I 194 142 2.9 3.2 32. 2.8 3.1 2.3
U-pfn- po.d d V. d~ WbwI-
Tdl A10. E91 tddU Ml bl946 .160 1 4
M.,. Fb. Mg,. 64M.. NWs. 0.- J.,1 FI. M,1967 19Fd 1866 1967 1957 1967 1968 1966 16
a1561 96Bv69195416I .99991 ................ _ ........ _. ___. 25.6e 26.16 26.243 29 25,51 26.021 208 os 26.14s 28.196 292430156 Mb 16 16.216 19.544 1.69 16,434 16.96 19.99 168029 16.79 16778
Fbpab6 191 an3. 92.2 63.1 94.2 6498 947 94.7 94 63.9P4~qm6 - -- X14.197 14.841 14A.64 14.J 15.017 1M 159078 14.4, 14.3
9454o51669.99p1.i90911 1994' ~ ~ ~~ 55.4 52.9 52.9 58.2 57.7 57.6 57.7 S". 96.6-6142O99..~-......_- _...-. -.. _~. 2.019 1.894 _,99 2.562. 1.9 s 502 164551.8 2 169JW9 1 939 ess .59
U69'11p195
119't1606 .... ~~~~~ ~ 12.I 11.5 15 12.4 1590 19.9 19.9 II1. 115Nd6061 h 8916. b_____________________________ D 9.402 s9.62 9.674 9s184 9.152 9.215 9.220 98417 9.484
'The _,ptb 4p m n dod IC -. , -k' C~ l 4 of ftp d~ "*tIftf dd. -b- *W_ h ftr4 Wll_
76. 911
112
H4OUSEHOL.D DATA
7*.MA-1I. OMoOWp..11I .t01912 .mloy-d 96WW,160)d, 101 **o -*stS
~A100 t0910-)
HOUSEHOLD DATA
.a .~'d Ik.6.od 90 a
M6. M. MN .. N N1367 1936 in7 s1ee 1997 1936
TC.I. 16 y-- 110.29 112.97 9,124 7XO 6 9.9
.101Qu p 0II9b2 . .. ........ .. . 27.974 M.= G39 473 2.3 1 AE_.02u,6. d.* oii _. _O . .l.o2 ..... . ............. 13 13.960 349 294 2z 2.0P 101.9.10n01ty - - 14.97 1,c09 299 19a 1.9 12
T.d,0 slea. 9. _ .__. - . _ __ _ 34.964 35.448 1.709 1.524 458 4.1T5doO0 _ *ato. - ........................................... ............. 46 979............ 34 7 83 LO 28so"00.0. ... 8297 13 .575 766 729 88 LIA b*0, -M hd* d. __ __ __ 9134 M37 so 715 4. 3.7
s. oOow.... . .... __.__._ 14,.92 14.63 1'9 1.119 6o 7.0Pn 1 h .. 1 .............. ................ ........... . . 9.9 e 44 n3 4.4 4.2Pl~tC1.00o9 -. ... ........ 1I9M 1.929 67 78 2.4 3.58.0. _W =_o= 12046 12.193 1.17e 1.00 69 7i
PF.00 *1 v doo.. U d ...... ...-... ... ....... ..--. 13,145 133 1.9033 978 7J 6.9M.d..uo. o Po . . . ....... ... . . ... 4,429 48611 229 16 43 4.0Coo1 8db6 ---- .- -.-.-----. 44--- ------ 4 ,7 2 846 11.1 10.308c1 I P9odM 0 0_______ __ 3_ 460 242 2 9 5.7 zso
opwwos.m 1 0210894880.9 . -. 18.79 17.27 2.179 1.99 11.9 9M.01.w 0P0010 .9098mom W11ko0n . ~ .~ 7.732 7.99 an 706 18.1 6.1TI.1Pona.110 .10111.1-98 9000.01 -.. 4.534 4.67 486 440 9.2 9LoKWO09 Q.oPwo0 0.. bb9080*4.1 4.919 4.610 351 742 18.6 18.C.oo.o.,. kb .....- - -- 610 Gel 298 227 29.5 29.800 h1.1.. _0k91 dD, rI u d _ . .................. ......01 d. .0 _ _.....A.. 3.909 3Lm me6 819 1329 e
F-Tft 9010*7 .101999 A-_ ___ _ 3 .49 3.012 330 298 9.7 ae.6
Fl P.M wm -k 8 W~ V- hk_ NM pbh. 0t A.a. Foo.. O.W ,6. ht 11917d 6
T7*9 A-IL Ell_.' .daf t .of 1f V.19 .116.0 M-ft 8 by P., 0T b .d
04 q. TOW Ed
%. W. % M. k . . W. MN. . W.
VETNAM4MA 5ET3RA0
TM199 3070.0000 . ... - . 79018 7.98 7.20 7.271 SAN0 6.996 406 378 8.6 8.230 1.44 0 -- = =- -- 62S4 .3609 59.71 5.7292 8.644 8.1 327 33831 6 9.
301. 34700.-______ 967 766 021 723 w36 643 Ss 6o 9.2 11.135 I 39 - 2.744 292 Z532 2.179 e486s Z043 1486 1o 8.8 6.2491.44 .1 _ 2.Y2 2.8561 Z418 z2.W 2322 Z708 99 115 4.0 4.1
4.5 00 .1 . . . . . ._ 1.556 1.876 1237 1.594 1.189 10' 79 44 s 4 8.9
Tot1 308144 9 -. . _ --. 19.159 29.129 18.104 18.892 17.082 17,98 1.022 904 58. 4330 t 34 y7 ------- .9........9-9711 6S. *26 8.470 7.623 8,024 436 445 &5 5.335 lo 30 .. 8.129 _.607n S774 .27 5.429 5.906 348 298 6O 4540 1. 44" y -- C--M- _ 4.388 4.468 4.842 4.149 3.831 3.07 211 173 .2 4.2
NOTE: M91. V7 1- W-l l 09 o w. h I6. A,.W 6d 301. 44 d- of M^ the WOW VW 1 I IDF0 bt.. AL.8 S. 1964 W May 7. 1679 N_.W M - V. " h 0d a V1l 01.09. 1. 0 909d hI A.-d F4 p_ aW 4d. 0,Aod4 t1
113
H0OUSEH=4. DATA HOUSEHOW DATA
Tab *,I& £owpAv..1 M.9 91 9 doml P99.*I f4.19 988 8I9I
(N.919119 MI958
I W - *.etw I8.
49719985 1957 1 IMI ~=i I z- ~I = IJ I Jw I
O.~ W*.Ub~ 2PM 95 20DA24 25.M 2.39=9 2.714 20.751 20.787 25.24* 20.0OIa. ~Ib. .- ___________ 13.597 13.975 13,90 13.815 13.912 13,950 i3*1l 14.03 13,975al~pbd -- I__________ 3739 13.184 13.210 12.799 13.172 13.25 13M9 MM27 13.21U.1.VOby.d 959 812 740 8 740 725 714 713 70U1...1r451l-,I 199_______ . I.e 5.3 8.0 5,2 5.2 51 5.4 5.5
am.9 l0.9.58A91 9w~lf9I USA5 9.09 gAW 9,354 9.52 9.4 908 . 9.098OAM la 80.- 5,915 S.8 8.045 5.94 1.989 5.8 5 5.983 8.013 8.088
apb8 d4 5.408 3,98s1 5.759 S.1 5.847 5a SAW9 5.898 5.771Ll9MA.10d 312 298 297 323 311 309 295 319 298U01919100111.8188 .............-.-. _-. s5.4 5.5 4.7 .8 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.3 49
(39. l9.954919 8988b81 $.73 8.7? 8.770 8.722 8.757 0.701 8.784 5.787 8.775Chi. b0__=. . e9 5808 5.739 se77 5.877 5.784 5,751 5.795 SAM 5.749E.75119 - 5.155 5.27 5.23 5.243 5.34 5.325 5.407 5.401 5.33EU__ -- . 404 498 440 434 400 428 388 438 419
U0.9499811181919.. 8.1 .52 7,9 7,5 8.9 7.4 8.7 7.0 73
0.9._ _*919d911 pWMM51 4,58 1 45808 4.588 4.501 4.54 4.588 4.597 4.598 4.509C" b o.I -________ _ 3,098 3.101 3.108 3.081 3.003 3.008 3.143 3.147 3.198
E.0,k8 ...4 _--2.21 2._ 9 3.05 2Z984 3.009 2.98 3.938 3.041 3.0s8
Ul19981y~d -.._______ ..... 138 lie 114 117 84 88 198 108 94UIdoII9_0591._119 4. 3.8 3.8 3 z27 2.9 3.4 34 29
C~9.1191*9054059 5n O M 8 8.972 es.77 8.98 a.898 e8.8 8.e8 8.72 e877M. I1.- __ 4.483 448 4.,440 402 4,519 4539 4,472 4,539 4.4,e
a.a 4-- 9895 498 4071 4.884 4,141 4.159 4,137 4,019 4.149 4.117U d h 378 398 398 381 398 392 494 341 371U1e9819 9.e -8.4 8.9 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.7 15.2 8.4 8.3
8i- Jo.IW
0c7.9.1 .491 9 P 4e9 5.98 8527 839 5.8989 e .o18 ,521 8.024 S.027 e .039U.. _W _3__ ___- 39 3.978 3.978 3.975 52.94 4.5 4.037 3.91 3.90
041r19794 3.789 3.810 3.002 3,250 3,847 3.896 3.884 3.988 3AM88. g.1859s 170 181 173 150 147 157 135 138 1SO
U919 1.34.0 4.4 3.9 3.7 3. 3,8 34 430
CNo .
0.9._1*9689111898.9.113,745 13.788 13,775 13745 13.788 13.788 13.790 13.798 13.7700.979991110 f _ _ _ _ __ - 8.437 8.425 8.427 8.47 8.00 0.512 B.S24 8.508 8.495
n m n _-- 7.97 8.054 8.084 8.083 112 815 .IV 8.120 8.172 8.142Ehd ;ze 774 449 372 382 405 "I 390 404 333 323Un..Wwo81198 19 5.3 4.4 4.3 49 5.2 4,9 4.7 3.0 5.
Noah8 C5919
Cklkh W1W.M59 POP 0 4.788 4.808 4.884 4.788 4.84 4,948 4,852 4.988 4.9840.9.509b909 .29 5.39 3.255 3,247 3.314 3.39 3.391 3DD 3.39
E.8199143.098 3.849 3.135 3.091 3.181 3.144 3.135 .198D 3.171t519l5 ISO8 139 129 Ise 133 147 118 12D 125U.s94_r d 4.9 4.2 45 4, 4.0 4.5 4.7 3,9 3,0
0. n9500..9 98488 8.139 8.184 8.198 8,139 8.174 8.178 8.181 8.184 8.198a0.9. 8910 t5.181 5.379 5305 5.237 .28 8.284 5.33 5.30 8.39
E,119197d 4.758 4*94 4,978 45 4940 4.307 4.983 5.03 .4.9LVn.Mb8o.d 408 374 418 398 318 327 347 342 411
U91198091 1919 019 _______ ________ 7.9 7.1 7.0 7,9 8.0 8.2 8.8 8.4 7.7
S- .9188989 .1 91f O
114
HOUSEHOWD DATA
T.W A-I&. ElpI~y.~.n 95669699 V. d.9- 688., 94 919 d.- Vgm S -C,98
HOUSHOD DATA
S~~~~~~~9 9m.- dd 9s_ _ _ _Slt.W 99 . M.,. FtL m5. Uo. No9. D-0 J- F& W8.1967 1968 1968 1967 t9o7 19n7 1TM 198e i1 n
P.
099,9 n-l5.99w 94691696 9.27 9,312 9.314 9.277 6.39 9.7 9.39 W32 9.34or, 94fc, ... .. ..... .. .. _... 56450 963 se17 9.5m 59.709 9.790 9.627 I.16 5.75
En.0%d .i 5-110 8.319 9.04 5243 59394 5.457 5.497 SA5LUl.1,y84 " - 340 334 314 321 319 223 339 3W Mu1996l 1 _ 62 59 56 5L 5.5 5.8 7 92 LI
To4
OA n _n __ _.__ 12.56 12.053 120J6 12.N 1944 12.94 12.068 12.82A I2L=8a4. 9 , O.00___ 8 O61 o.167 .6 9391 .56 65 6.2uEnpb.d _ _ 7348 7.492 7,493 7,432 7.659 7.996 795 7.J9o 7.62Uflow M _ 868 718 674 63 We2 9o 6SW an 670un990,19yn,.b. 191 _ _. . .. 8.2 LI7 .3 LI 3 7.7 LO U4 &1
ol_.. ol Fd Ud Wb9 99WU OD- - .0 KW4 d fW _W e-ktdoo
115
HOU86E404ID DATA HOUSES8ILD DATA
TM*I6A-.P16.066, o toby166.6. 14.. wld61160
O00.06
658666.6.06 6666t.O.Ml *..1.**9.Md
R,,Iloom so___ dw-f im
__________________________ JL J1L~~~~~~~~II I I
TOTAL
T8.teI 01. M h. _ 63.904 64,067 62.A5 6z290l 62.ss3 62.899 s2.62s
Do o a _r4 01ow _ _ s s.063 66442 sa963 57.N9 57.490 s 7.405 57.4144 .1i Kv Gq I 0.01 668616 a.012 6.2194 6.463 8.36 6,414 6.32
M. dk96 1d = 41687 4.329= 4.11 4.193 4.426 4.467 4.254K.p4g I 6 ... . .... 26._=6 25.277 29,162 250 25.648 25.513 25.255964164 15.92 16.796 15.972 16.55 16.37 16.5011 1 6.020696e 465 3.7 4.027 4.424 4,611 4.713 4,507 4.64
Waitajob___ 5.632 5,845 5.7S0 571 5.seo2 5.462 "10R6~* 06 41 h9l08. 66W 1,557 151 1346 l 8 1.470 1.558 1.369 1,310
* h6.0. 04 600 64 914 647 834 a10=6616 4 1.225 1. 178 8 1,31 15 1.274 1.4 1.132
11**tW~d6I06l. n. h1 b __ 217 1.666 1.129 1.049 62, 910 2.027J11,96* 6 I 865 738 762 664 635 561 790P.11016 ft90M 412 361 373 354 357 329 327
066 616 - 1.130 1.052 1.216 1.114 1.132 1.00 1.141
T8* .064 M 6 ___ ____- 21.101 21.929 20.466 2D.661 00.911 25.945 20.564
Do 06 _t . 466 19.114 19202 18.452 16.585 18245 16.076 18297
W&S .*job nw --. ___.-_._. - ---. __ 2.066 2.026 1.4 2.062 2.064 1.91 1,971Ron Sch oo".W- _ 767 736 il1 750 773 737 on
TM- tw&14K 0 9 _4 * 377 366 406 463 416 414 40671h1* 6.65 got15 9 ~ 01 466 466 425 431 3516 4620 hl -__ _ ._ . 422 433 454 421 44 40 471
T76 nc04 h.16666 44_s13 42450 42.5 42.320 4Z.52 4Zo5s 41970
D. 0ol 04. _4 * 0 pb 36.040 29.40 3sas24 4236. 3e,545 S36.30 38.417
WW4 a job 66 3.8654 3.610 3.7 3aeo 3.736 3.545 353P_ 6.0 scho4o1l50.4 790 762 667 720 764 663 677
* 1h8. _ . _ _ _ 427 421 440 451 431 421 44HO"1 _ _ _ _ 1.225 1,178 1.231 1329 1274 I.24 1,12Th6*.015 a 86 b 716 611 866 61g 581 562 16606. 0.1 707 63 762 662 an6 as5 4am
TOM6 na 666ho .- 54.56 54,470 53.804 53.27 63.771 53870 53.415
OD 606 99a job I,, 50.2s0 50,34 4s,437 49294 49a3e 40.564 495536
W&N . job II60 4.275 4.077 4.166 4.344 4.252 4.045 4.94R, 10 Schoo6l09 Sh8.. 1.566 1.080 661 1.063 I.56 6 45
* M -.81616 079 604 617 863 646 646 644*.116 h , 912 637 912 9V4 648 O0 637
n 94b | 3 756 771 714 643 620 66706.. 16 1" _______ _ 643 636 946 696 951 6844 87
TOM 0a 6144 6 __t- ____ _ 7,571 7.613 7.367 7,457 732 7.294 7.406
Do 6 -a6 ajob I,6 6.116 6.2 5.06 6.1_ 60 6.6.3 6.004
jW . 4. pb nb 1,454 1.6 1402 1.294 1237 1.210 1.32R-.10 41o46 S816h 8..6l . ....lc 414 423 348 315 333 341 351
II h 8 n 6__ 206 166 225 193 ISO 165 165~ _ 1111 30e 291 313 275 304 31011*416..068.6i . * b 344 293 327 296 310 237 266Oh. 196 154 212 175 145 163 196
' .4196115816664 h41498 "66154666850" lln "4*na 0 no b 68.lon6.116 60o 4" 618 60 1 r6 _01 0
'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ P 45866 r6 h8F6 5 r6 loo ym or dd24966.0n55mn nl olh0lo816 bK6.
116
ESTABLISHMENT DATA
TaWbl 81. Empb oyan nonaldcultrl payrolls by 1nLoor
ESTABLISHMENT DATA
-T
**r.I 1st7.,_._
a- -4'a
r, _ 44I
I. .......... i-I.... , -.13333 ....... I41 .................................. 3. . 13
._ ' .. . .. . ...................................... |t.X.....,,,,-.*
ffIC .. ....................................... j7ri.....0~~~~r 113FGG0@10143 143 az.*7
C_~~~~~~~~~~3. 443.3 444.3O UC . .. .....O ...................... . g . a . . § .
M _ ..... .......... 14 1.1)3.4
.s of . . ............................ s ^ -1a s -G. - - . . ........................3 3 1, 1
uoa .............................. j7X ...... ...... ss1134341114341 ..... . ............... .1 .
.~lus~t~uo ........... . .... T' ... XGT .sIa. cznolspst .................... .. ..{s b... X
E lre~w~a~mdust. ......................... 4.2.7$77 ^
4434.g.44 . IIbsoscn7 417.34 1 1.33 I '.33i
FLnol.33l l4444sc4 . I '13.5...3......4.3.. 1.. 1P 2lcnl4 w . . 344. 3)4. 344...................1
vitlhcslzii_1.......... ........ ...... s. .t~ .
S113311.43433443. . ..4.......... .- 164.7 3.1
. urnwn' ................... .............. s5s'5. sZ!5.
FoPnI.odfus11 134.3 141.,3.14. 21.3311. 4
73141,34443143441431334431341: '.241:3I 4s.4. 435.34331134441.44l34c43 .! . 414.3 1,443.3 1.441.4I4h3r31lll3.4.34333434C114141. . ..... 3. ,43 ,14.33'114.
EI444ol3l43lcI4.34o11.1,. 4.3).4................ I3.143ss1 3:I1:
344333113343.4,1.3. .34.4.3 .3...... 3-43.3zS7.-7.*11Tobr a4344,13t3
313
43
. .j 3.),......... 131.3T I 133.3^s*MI334431 a - .................4......... 334*.3- I * .3 I" 414.3
133334 .....4.......... . 31 .51s 33.4^ 3 4.4
I 33.333
1,331.3
'3,433
4.333
I 433.3I 331.)I Ill.)
I 413.3
13.43433.3.:.
4, 134.3
43 .3 34
1.1)3.3
433p
33�
13,333
3.334
4,434
__-
I43,333 33.314s 1143,33 Ii...} 33434.33
i 4 "~ | 4 44 431 eg *
1.3 1' 3 '7 1'44 "'i'"' .7 '.3"'
1344 133,333 *. Za w X
111.331 11,3 11,43 3sl,433s 11,14
1334 134 433 4337. 143333*; 33 I 34) 331 313333 I s@ ss 33. 334
71' 1141143413134?s
I .4 I I.5 3.3311 3.133. 3.333 .113 I 4.1333,143. 3.323 2',,,4.313 J 3.313 I a,8 . .@ @
1.~ 1.343 1 7.333.....-1 3.3341 *.---
.,, ,.4 ,,, j.,,,, 3.,,.,,1 .....54I I313343I ''33 Z1 X1 '33 1 134
433 I 331 I 31 333 333. '@1.33) 1 .333 1 .333 ~'."'i ',3441,3 4 1,4 3,34 1,33 1,3i3' ) '
13133 I 134s l 13-44
341s17aXj7sX1 344 343 1Z
*.-- 13 *.7 13**-3 1344 *32-
'.33' 3 .311 3.3 * --- 3 -* * s3.333 3.2414 a4.4j334,4341 4.3132
4.433 I4.433 I3.44-1 3.433i 3.4.3
13.443 131.433 13,134 1a,433 13.134
4.333 |2,3sI33433,3434 ,3}1.43
3.43.4 3o X .3344|*.--71 4.133
]3,3313,333 3.434§13.3)a1 3.3
1,431 ,33 1 ,333s 1-.--a.434 *-.347
3.133 I3.3171 3,343 3 .3§133.433
*.7 1*.433 1 .3337 4133z 1.334
3:371443 3, I 4 11~ 343. 3,3443,3434,333X +s : 1 4.33 4,44 4113
4. .3 14341,1 431-1.3
.v~l xs ............. ...................
OX l10G s ....... ....................
11 D~b................................
.E n s l o .......... ...........
.X IX .. . . . . ............
.4 --OIS I~ n ol stI ..
.aln .. ..... n . 'z .............. ..........Fb.............l...............
Fnn . ...........................
.nux .....................................
.... .........................
44las 13313 ..................
..G.n . ................................
... ... .. .........................
1- ... :.
1sI7@s^
I 47
I .4
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I s7I '. ":
I ;. , "
I.s II.,-I
I ,~O
I 7
I''
,: . I
l _
I 1 F711'?.
ESTABUSHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Table .2. Avwage weekly bouns of poducon of nootupe*TMy wooke,' on prtvats noragrlculturel psyroLl by bndustry
_ - -
74734343 |4(4 i4.S1
|34.4 *".4 *--*--4.- "' '"|!.................. *-!"' ^. 1s ,, ,, ,,i,, *, -
c_- - 374 401 "'i .- 37-3 74 I > ,, -_............... ......... ... , i .. .-.-*.- j,!..:.
o ............................. ...I........ 4 ; ... 0 . .. .. -4.4. 4 . 4 .3 .
4n4D4 I 4 4.4 4. 4.1 4.3 131 4......................7 44.S 4i.5
O~e_........................ . .... ...... a .. .. T ...... Zda-oe -i*X.... ..
.4a447aDD . . .. . . . . . .. . .................. 3
F 4. .. ! ... 5. 44.44 43.5 4 4 . 43.5! 4 43.3444771474447341443)1334) 44.4s 44.4 44.4 40 44.3 44.0 444 33z ^.0 34.4 43.3
4743734441434)43773( . . . . ................... 4) '''I 4 3 44. 44.!
F i~~ai rcal ....... . --................. , . , ... .. ... .. ... ..)I 4' 44.4 44 444 3.3 4444....................4..1 3.4 !3... 44.4
E(744(73)414444)17. .................. 3 343 I 31' 44.4 43. 41.3 33.3! 34.4 4.3 44.
T. 43. ........................ 3 44. 44.3 44.4 I 44.4 44.4 43.3 4.4)334441(333(74441443(343444 . . . . ................ 4i 4.41 I I
54 I)4WI c 43.7 D- .............33........... ...fl . . . 31 44.3 s..l 34 .3 ( 4).-I*1 ; 44 ' I *-;' -
.3w0D3n 434434 . . . . . . ................................ 4 43. .I-s(14340444 4.01 ,7.3 44.4 44.2 sb4! 4-14§.4 47.41 44.4 44.1 44.1
O .ll . ......................................... .o ~ ~ .
. cd ds .R . . ...............................*. ...--| .i--|'.-. ow
Tfrnn. .................. ... .....I. .......... .-T "'|"'i 7 .
444,34 dn41l4444741.............................. *.3 34.4 34.7 3 7.- 34.01. 47.4 ".4 343 7 3F4744731473441)4433..... . ................. 4 3.3. 43.4 43.4 I 43.3 43o.4 . *~ a~ Z 4-3. I 44.37rl)74)734t473)347 .4. ................... 34.- -71 31.7 34*.4 34.3 I 33.3 34.3 34*.3 44.4 34Z.434143473773)(337337 4..................... .4 34.1 44* .444 *.44 , 44e o.4 44.71 44.1 44.3 44*.59434331(7433713037 3.3. ................... 33.3 44.4| ss 43.4 44.4! | Xso. ̂. s^|o
F rrn D~~~~~~~c b3 Dr34.443444................ *s* * "| ^~o| ^.1 ta i (4> is 74 747 (47] t
t-r~~~~~andun-DcD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (3 (47 (477 |747 6 |-- - 2 f- 2> <}|
444__1S3.334 4. 34.4 34.4 14. 0435. ]|<ttX|s}2
43344337 -----I " ''I''' DIU *D IsslF un Zrl u r X Thn- 4 Ol__S_ _
118
ESTABUSHMENT DATA ESTABUSHMENT DATATable s4 Avog. howty NW eey ss oog. of produallon or no uw l y w r on pe. n ApewIfle by A :bo,
900 = .0 0000002
To t........................ ................................... ................
uk -..... ...... ...............................................
..........................................................
._.......................................................
, n noo. o .::::.:::::
~~. 1_* b .................................. . ...........................................
T. ONI........................................Eala__|t~~~ ........ ........................
. .n_ .........................................._ * _ 1 _ 1 ~~~...................................."_ m S =... ~~~............... ...
_ _ _.............. ...................................................... ................ .......
.anu d s ............................................
- . b ..... .. . . . ... . ... .. . .. . .
Tl_____~~ ~~~........................................_ " _ .................................................
~_ " ......................................................
r__2__. .....................................
_~..............................................................
Owep �
0200. 2*0. 702.00..2907 2000 2500 2000 2
00.90 09.00 09.20 09.20
0.52 2.25 9.20 9.29
22.50 22.09 02.02 ISO
22.50 22.02 22 70 22 02
9.05 20.07 20.02 20.00
¶0.00 22.22 20.02 11.022.20 0.92 0.52 0.21'.50 1.02 � ,.02
¶2. 22 20.07 00.05 20.2002.02 22.20 22.00 12.0220.00 20.92 10.90 22.299.99 20.27 20.2, 20.00
00.7210.0220.00 20.009.02 20.02 20.02 20.09
22.00 22.20 22.20 22.2523.2923.0022.9222.02
0.072.070.5. 0.721.02 7.92 1.90 7.92
9.09 9.20 9.25 9.210.92 5.25 9.05 9.02
22.00 12.7022.0920.2522 v.00 7.22 7.22
5.02 0.02 2.00 0.2022.07 22.92 22.20 22.2920.22 20.20 20.2, 20 220.22 22.90 22.22 22.02
22.90 22.02 22.02 25.020.020.9,0.920.900.222.202.040.20
22.90 22.00 22.27 22.20
9.00 2.70 9.00 0.02
0.000.292.222.25
0.02 9.00 9.07 9.22
0.02 0.790.790.00
2032207.
w sb@7_-$}@s.§MMs0.v7
*27.ss^7o .s7
4§2.97
432.22337. o39X.ba425.46ses.so5|s .§t414.5s452. ss
4§2 .4*s47 .@o
sla.7748r .ZZ]]1.14]63.^lIs .7ssX5.72bb.4421g.41493.48al*.4ssas.3fs}s.ss]ss [email protected]
462.§s361.sa75.71
sas.s272.^e
300. 7.2. 9�0.990020002... 7
0205.29 0220.70 0220.20
020.22021.72227.9,
522.70 522.72 527.02
209.20222.22 202.00
022.07 200.22 .222.27
222.70 220.29 222.22210.52 229.20001.22300.00 202.02 020.22222.20220.22 220.20220.05 922.02 527.22000.70 227.92 229.50225.22029.20 222.09007.20 202.20202.27220.20 200.22232.70500. 50552.00 502.20592.52 500.02 002.00227.72 022.07 232.20220.00 202.52200.09
272.00 270. 57 272.20022.20 259.20 059.00527.02 522.99 522.02205.22 202.22 200.07222.27220.22222.20502.27202.27 050.27292.70 292.22 200.02520.00 500.70 502.00450.02029.22 092.20272.05 070.20222.22229.97 220.57 220.00
272.00222.20209.00
072.22272.20270.20
277.52077.22 020.70
220.72020.05 022.72
202.00200.50 202.222..- froa 0.00000
Table 8. Hourly Eeoonp ldX for production pr I bpron iA" nonlc " b by22917 . 00
_ .... ... ...... 2 2 0. . . 9 2 . 0 0 0. 0 2 0. 02 . 5 7 . 3 0 0 2. 9 2 0. 0 07.
s s ro e X . wb-s .X0 .70..o -otw; ~.r 4o - *Pr- -it -ueetprez
2722 700 720 702 .9 07.2 07.0 27.7 97.2 27.5 07.0 0.
09 0 7a 92. 020 2. 02. 222. 2. 0. 9.7 900 0..
119
ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATATable 1B.5. Indexes of aggregat weekly hmmor of production or nonsupeotooocy workers 0an polrte nwmagrtcsltoralpayrolls by londustoy
I I I ~~~~~- -f o.
........... 9.0.......7 1.9.7......701.1...2.
... .. .... ..... 2 0.1 9.. 0.0... 9. 0., 9.0 0.
............. .......... . ..... .3.....99..1909. 7 7.2. 791......................... . 7.5...- .. SI.
............................ 99 393 95.............. 9.9.907 2.: 9.~ 9.
.0.21.2.2.....OI02.0 00.2..99.0..2...09.! 90..9..
F3077217029. .......... 0 .700...07.9:...........1.77..9.S7002.70
7.02272001027C79 *.,I 9701 909.97.....7.... -7.9-
972 707722087200707.270207....:........1.....: ... 2i . :::.... 7. .. 1..9.9..2..0...0. 7. 9 .
U20fl70772902791977707.9t~ 979 ......... 907...0.7: 90.7 770.
. .... ............ . ...... 2,.. . 1 9 .2 9 .0. 9.0.. 7. 9 . 9.; 9 .9 9 .
W ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~ 10 ,: 72 '.7 7. 90 7.7. ..0.c- .I ...... :::: 9 ... 9 .9, 979.2....Oi 903. 007 2.
000702747797797727927..! 9 9 92 993 9.9.970.....099.0.
702.2170727 ....... 70.. 9:2 70.0.97.11.1.00......77. 77.
-_. 1. ... S4,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I ~
jI .:7.9 '~I 770.2 .770. .0172.2,77 .-
.......... !9.j..9.0 702!7291oo9j757'9.? 9.
909720770797.72078 0.2. p-o0:0lo.71107
120
Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much, Commissioner.To lead off, I wanted to pursue the discouraged worker data. You
submit that on a quarterly basis, as I understand it.Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. There are about a million persons in that
status?Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. These are people so discouraged they are not
even looking for work, is that correct?Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right.Senator SARBANES. And how does that compare historically, par-
ticularly at this point in a recovery?Mrs. NORWOOD. The level is rather high, and that's because
during the 1981-82 recession discouragement rose considerably. Ithas come down since then, but the level is still quite high by his-torical standards.
Senator SARBANES. By what factor is it higher than historicalstandards?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Maybe Mr. Plewes can answer that.Mr. PLEWES. In previous times with a comparable unemployment
rate, it's gotten down to the range of about 600,000 to 800,000. How-ever, the population has grown considerably, so that even underthe same conditions you would naturally have more discouragedworkers now than in the past.
Mrs. NORWOOD. I am glad we clarified that.Senator SARBANES. So it's quite significant, in other words, in
percentage terms?Mr. PLEWES. Yes.Senator SARBANES. Your explanation for it is simply that the
number rose so steeply in the 1981-82 recession that it just hasn'tbeen able to work its way down 7 years later?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I think that's one important element. Theother element is that the discouraged are disproportionately madeup of blacks and females, particularly those with limited trainingand who increasingly have difficulty in the labor market, particu-larly with the restructuring of industry and of occupations that isgoing on.
Senator SARBANES. Now the unemployment rate for men andwomen has obviously fallen over the last year, since the overallrate has fallen, but as I understand it, the rate has fallen moresubstantially for adult men than adult women. Is that correct?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, the rate was much higher for adult menduring the recession, and in the recovery there has been more of areduction from that higher rate. That's been an unusual situation.
Senator SARBANES. Well, let me take it a year ago. A year ago, Ithink the rate was about the same, wasn't it, for adult men andadult women?
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right.Senator SARBANES. It was the same I think.Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. And they are both about the same now, 4.9
for adult men and 4.8 for adult women.Senator SARBANES. All right. Now for some reason I thought the
women's figure was higher than that.
1 01.LfJL
Mrs. NORWOOD. The rate for women came down this month from5.2 to 4.8.
Senator SARBANES. What do you attribute that to? That's quite asignificant 1-month move, is it not?
Mrs. NORWOOD. The women are doing better in the labor market.As you know, the unemployment rate for women always used to bemuch higher than the rate for men. That situation was reversedduring the recession and now the two rates seem to have come to-gether. I don't have any particular information on that, however.
Senator SARBANES. Now, is the slowdown in the increase in thelabor force attributable to demographics? Is that the cause?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think the overall slowdown in the rate of laborforce growth-that is over recent years-is clearly due to demo-graphics. The slowdown in the labor force this particular month-that is from February to March-is more probably merely a catch-ing up of the survey because we had in January a very high rate oflabor force increase and the survey measure of labor force to movein fits and starts.
Overall, however, we are seeing many fewer teenagers. That wasparticularly true over the last couple of years. That's beginning toturn around, but not by very large numbers. And as you recall, inthe 1960's in particular, when the baby boom generation begin en-tering the labor force, we used to have upwards of 3 to 3.2 to 3.3million people coming into the labor force each year. We had lessthan 2 million this year.
Senator SARBANES. And that difference is demographics, that dif-ference; is that correct?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. Between 3.2 and less than 2 million?Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's correct, because labor force participa-
tion is still quite high. It's higher than it used to be. So it is thedemographics. There are just fewer youngsters and that, of course,helps to keep the unemployment rate from rising because young-sters always have a very much higher unemployment rate thanolder people.
Senator SARBANES. Does the Bureau have any figures on howmuch the GNP would have to grow in order to keep the unemploy-ment rate constant?
Mrs. NORWOOD. We have not done any work on that ourselves,Senator. We are aware of the view that is ascribed to Arthur Okunthat there is a relationship and that the job creation really needsto be quite high, but we have not done any work. We have nothingspecific to offer on that. That was 300,000 to 1 percent on the un-employment rate.
Senator SARBANES. What was that figure again?Mrs. NORWOOD. That's the generally used figure, a 300,000 in-
crease in employment would reduce the unemployment rate-or
Mr. PLEwES. A 1-percent increase in GNP is needed to reduce un-employment by 300,000. That is the historic formula.
Senator SARBANES. A 1-percent increase in the GNP.Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. That would provide 300,000 jobs or decrease
unemployment by 300,000?
122
Mr. PLEWES. It would reduce unemployment by 300,000, allthings equal, sir.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Anyhow, the specific formula was later revised.Senator SARBANES. Let me point this out. In the last year the
economy grew--Mrs. NORWOOD. Three percent and one percent. That's the ratio.Senator SARBANES. Well, the economy grew between the last
quarter of 1986 and the last quarter of 1987 by 3.9 percent. Is thatcorrect?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. And during that time the unemployment rate
fell from 6.8 to 5.9 percent.Mrs. NORWOOD. There are those who say that if you really read
Okun he didn't say exactly that-but in any case, it's purportedthat his "law" is that you need a 3-percent increase in the GNP toreduce the unemployment rate by a point.
And I would argue-and the reason that I am a little rusty onthe exact figure is that I think conditions have changed a greatdeal and I'm not sure that the relationships that he observed are atall present today. Relationships have changed and our industry hasbeen restructured. Our occupational distribution is different. Ourdemographics are different. And I think that those relationshipsreally need to be looked at again.
Senator SARBANES. Well, it's being suggested that GNP will growthis year at about 2 percent.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. Depending upon whose predictions you're
taking. In fact, the blue chip indicators are at 1.8 percent. The ad-ministration is at 2.4 percent. But if one assumed about a 2-percentgrowth, what would the implications of that be for the unemploy-ment situation?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think the implications of that are that it wouldbe extraordinarily difficult to get the unemployment rate down andit might be difficult to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
Senator SARBANES. At a 2-percent growth?Mrs. NORWOOD. At a 2-percent growth.Senator SARBANES. Well, I'll come back on my second round to
some other questions, but I'll turn now to Senator Proxmire.Senator PROXMIRE. Mrs. Norwood, as I indicated, in the last two
lines of your statement you said that factory jobs showed no in-crease and closed out a relatively weak first quarter for the indus-try.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator PROXMIRE. The fact that the manufacturing didn't show
an increase after weak growth in January and February seems in-consistent with the data that show a steadily declining rate of un-employment and with other data indicating that exports are grow-ing and that the trade deficit is declining and the value of thedollar is still down.
Are these figures really inconsistent or is there some employ-ment growth occurring in the export industry counterbalanced by adropoff in employment in domestic manufacturing?
Mrs. NORWOOD. The numbers are entirely consistent, I believe,with the other sets of data that we see. There was an increase, for
i z13
example, in nonelectrical machinery, an increase of 10,000 jobs.There was an increase in printing and publishing, which has beendoing extraordinarily well. We even had an increase in motor vehi-cles and equipment as auto sales have begun to go up a bit.
I think that we are seeing that some industries, particularlythose related to housing, which did not do very well over the lastquarter, have not been hiring people. They have in fact been reduc-ing their work force-after seasonal adjustment, of course.
Senator PROXMIRE. But construction is strong.Mrs. NORWOOD. Now. It often takes a little while for the effects
to work through the economy.Senator PROXMIRE. Shouldn't that be reflected in the March fig-
ures?Mrs. NORWOOD. No, not yet. I think that the April figures might
perhaps reflect that.The other point that should be made is that our productivity in
manufacturing is holding up extraordinarily well and the fact thatwe are not increasing the workers on company payrolls does notnecessarily mean that our production is being reduced.
And it may well be that we have entered a new phase and thatwe need to be interpreting employment change a little bit differ-ently. It may be that we have rationalized our industry more thanwe had thought. It seems clear that employers are more cautiousabout hiring people and keeping them on payrolls because they rec-ognize that labor costs are quite high. So they are trying to findways to produce with a very lean company labor force.
Senator PROXMIRE. Senator Sarbanes and I have both touched onthe discouraged workers element. I still haven't gotten an explana-tion-maybe there isn't one-as to why it is that the number ofdiscouraged workers actually went up. It's increased by 100,000during the first quarter of 1988, which as I say is about a 10-per-cent increase. These are people who have just given up hope. Theywant work but they're not going to go out and look for it becausethey figure they can't find the jobs.
How can we explain that in a situation where unemployment isfalling?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, one explanation might be that many ofthese people recognize that the kinds of jobs that are out there re-quire training that they don't have. Many of them may not be lo-cated in the same geographic areas as the jobs are.
Also, we should recognize that data on discouragement arerather weak in a sense because they rely on a state of mind. It isnot like asking something specific such as whether you have lookedfor work. You either did or you didn't. In the case of discourage-ment, we ask people who are out of the labor force whether theywant a job and then why they didn't look for a job, and that is notvery hard data. It's rather soft. So we can't be too sure about thespecific estimate. But I would say that this is a fairly high level.
Senator SARBANES. Would you yield for a moment?Senator PROXMIRE. Yes, indeed.Senator SARBANES. Isn't it very unusual for the number of dis-
couraged workers to go up when the unemployment rate is goingdown?
124
Mrs. NORWOOD. You usually do not see that happening. Onequestion, of course, is whether this change will be sustained. Thosenumbers have jumped around a little and I'm not sure that overthe next quarter we will see the same thing. Do you have some-thing to add, Mr. Plewes?
Mr. PLEWES. I just do remind you that the number is down overthe year, but it's gone up this quarter. We ought to take a look atanother quarter to find out if this is a permanent change.
Senator SARBANES. But you're surprised at that, aren't you? Thenumber of discouraged workers going up, when the recovery hascontinued and the unemployment rate has gone down, was a sur-prising figure?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, of course.Senator PROXMIRE. The statistical breakdown you have under
household data shows that you ask a series of questions-ill health,disability, home responsibilities, they cannot get a job, and so forth.I think "they cannot get a job" is the factor that goes up mostsharply. It just focuses on that particular response, which indicatesthat they think there's no job available in the particular area inwhich they're qualified to work.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, we don't really know why people feel theway they feel. There are people who say, "Well, I don't thinkthere's any job available at the salary that I would want to have,"or "There isn't a job available with the kind of hours of work that Iwould want." There are a whole lot of reasons for discouragement.
We really don't have very much information on what makespeople come into or leave the labor force. A lot of this may be wagerelated. A lot of it may be related to the kinds of jobs. And some ofit may just be plain discouragement.
Senator PROXMIRE. Then I'm concerned about table A of yourstatistical data, a very helpful table, which shows a change be-tween February and March for women, which is pretty spectacular.In other words, the unemployment for women dropped from 5.2 to4.8 percent. For men it remains exactly the same.
Is there any explanation for that?Mrs. NORWOOD. Why should you be concerned?Senator PROXMIRE. What's that?Mrs. NORWOOD. Why should that be a concern?Senator PROXMIRE. Well, it's a situation in which there were
fewer men unemployed in February by quite a bit, 4.9 percent com-pared to 5.2 percent, and then it's reversed in March with moremen unemployed than women. I wondered if there's any explana-tion for that. Is that because women are in the service industrieswhich have been stronger than other industries?
Mrs. NORWOOD. The decline in the number of unemployedwomen was larger than the decline in their labor force last month.
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, if more women were in the labor force,then the unemployment rate shouldn't have gone down, isn't thatright?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Pardon me.Senator PROXMIRE. If more women were in the labor force, the
unemployment rate should not have gone down, isn't that right?Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. However, there were fewer women in the
labor force.
125
Senator PROXMIRE. Fewer women, OK.Then I'm concerned about the second line after that where you
have black unemployment in January, 12.2 percent; black unem-ployment in March, 12.8 percent. That's a very big rise in 2months.
Mrs. NORWOOD. It's not statistically significant.Senator PROXMIRE. Well, it may not be, but it's still some indica-
tion.Mrs. NORWOOD. It's very high. There's no question about it.Senator PROXMIRE. Now you also have an increase in Hispanic
unemployment from 7.2 to 8.2 percent. Is that statistically signifi-cant?
[Mrs. Norwood shaking head.]Senator PROXMIRE. One full percentage point is not statistically
significant?Mrs. NORWOOD. No. The unemployment rate for Hispanics has
been in the 8.1 to 8.3 percentage range since last October.Senator PROXMIRE. Except it was down in January to 7.2 percent.Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. That was an outlier pretty clearly.Senator SARBANES. Could I ask a question?Senator PROXMIRE. Yes. I yield to the chairman.Senator SARBANES. At the time of the Kerner report in 1968, 20
years ago, the black unemployment rate was twice the white unem-ployment rate. Those figures-this is 20 years ago now, just to givesome perspective on what unemployment rates were-was 6.7 per-cent for blacks and others, 3.2 percent for whites.
Currently, the black unemployment rate is more than 21/2 timesthe white rate, 12.6 percent versus 4.8 percent in February.
Have you identified any factors to explain why the employmentsituation has deteriorated for blacks during the last 20 years?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I believe that a lot of the discussion thatwe've seen in the media over the last month or so on the anniver-sary of the Kerner report has cited a number of problems. We havebeen over them here before.
There are those who believe that some of the black populationwhich has had the advantage of decent schooling has done fairlywell in the labor market, and that there are others who have fallenbehind. And we may be seeing the truth of some of that I think.
It's quite clear that the labor market of today and of the futureis going to require more training and more education. Therefore,we really have quite a formidable task on our hands to preparepeople to work who just do not have the kind of training for thejobs that are available today.
We are seeing, interestingly, that there is quite a rapid increasein the labor force and in employment of the Hispanic population.Their unemployment rate is still much higher than for the whitepopulation as a whole. Nevertheless, they had an increase over thelast year of 400,000 in their labor force and they had an increase ofalmost 450,000 in employment.
The black population, which is much larger than the Hispanicpopulation, had an increase in the labor force of only half as much,245,000, and had an increase in employment of about 350,000.
So the Hispanics over the last year seem in a way to have beendoing better than the blacks.
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Senator SARBANES. To what extent does that reflect illegals whoare becoming legal under the new legislation?
Mrs. NORWOOD. We don't know, of course, but we do believe thatwe have gotten a lot of those people who were undocumented inthe household survey because we have maintained confidentialityof the data and we haven't tried to distinguish among them. Butwe can't be sure, of course.
Senator SARBANES. Well, I must say I find that there is some-thing wrong with this 20-year retrospective explanation.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. That's quite clear.Senator SARBANES. We've gone from a 3.2-percent unemployment
rate for whites and a 6.7-percent rate for blacks 20 years ago to a4.8 percent for whites and a 12.6 percent for blacks. We've had ageneral deterioration in the level of unemployment. In other words,we tend to lose perspective on that and on how much the unem-ployment situation has deteriorated generally. Then there has beenan even sharper deterioration for the black population over twodecades, when supposedly we were making advances in terms ofequal opportunity and eliminating discrimination in the jobmarket. Yet we've had this worsening of their relative position.
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct.Senator SARBANES. It's your view that the reason is the change
in the nature of the job market and the nature of the skills thatare required?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't think that's the only reason. That's one ofthe reasons that makes the problem in the future even more seri-ous for us I believe. It's certainly not the only cause.
We have had black youngsters who have grown up in povertywho have had very little hope and very little training and weexpect them to become productive members of the labor force.
Senator SARBANES. But that was the case in 1968 and may havebeen even more the case then.
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think that there may be differences now in ex-pectations on the part of the whole population, not just the blackpopulation. There are a number of differences now.
Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, I want to be clear about thefigures for this month. Actually, employment dropped, is that cor-rect, by 300,000 from last month?
Mrs. NORWOOD. In the household survey. It rose in the businesssurvey.
Senator SARBANES. Is the explanation for the lower unemploy-ment rate related to the decline in the labor force?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. So, in other words, the unemployment rate
went down not because jobs grew, but because the number ofpeople seeking jobs declined?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, that's one way of putting it. I would saythat the unemployment rate really didn't go down because therewas only a tenth difference over the month. I think what we'vebeen seeing over the last year or last 6 or 7 months is a continuingdrifting downward of the unemployment rate bit by bit. And Ithink that has been sustained this month.
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But as I said in my statement, I think that it is wise this monthto focus on the employment numbers in the business survey whichare showing an increase but a slower increase than we have had.
Senator SARBANES. Let me ask the questions on statistics that Iindicated earlier I was interested in raising.
First of all, the census forms have now been finally determinedfor 1990, as I understand it.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator SARBANES. There has been a decision to allow the census
to include certain questions, particularly relating to housing andsome other matters, and also to have a larger long form survey interms of the size of the sample who will be questioned under thelong form.
What's your view of the effect this decision will have on thework at the BLS?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, first, let me say that I am very pleasedthat OMB and Census have reached agreement and I also amgrateful to you for the efforts that you and others have made.
Some of the information that was in dispute were data that weuse for developing parts of the Consumer Price Index. We are par-ticularly pleased that several elements of the housing data havebeen retained and put back on the short form because that will im-prove the validity of those data.
In addition, there are other questions that will be on the longform and since there has been agreement that the sample for thelong form will be larger than OMB had at first mandated, I thinkthat's a very important step forward.
We have to remember that the only reliable data that we havefor local areas come from the decennial census. There is no othersurvey of any kind in the whole statistical system that is largeenough to produce reliable local area data. And if we begin to cutback on the local area data in the census, then that means that forthe whole decade we are without it.
So I think it is terribly important that this agreement has beenreached and I look forward to being able to use the data.
Senator SARBANES. I understand that it's been more than twodecades since BLS substantially revised the questions in the cur-rent population survey which is used in compiling the monthly un-employment statistics and other BLS statistical series.
Do you see problems in the current design of the current popula-tion survey?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I believe that anything we do can be done better.I also believe strongly that it is time for the current populationsurvey to be revisited. It is a survey which was designed, as youknow, originally in the early 1940's for the kind of population andhousehold and family arrangements that we had then. We havemade some changes, but the last time the questionnaire was re-viewed and changed substantially was in January 1967.
That's a very long time ago. We have learned a lot since then.There is a whole new approach to cognitive science and surveydesign. We at BLS have just begun the establishment of a cognitivelaboratory to be able to examine more carefully the language, thewording of questions, to see whether respondents really understandwhat we're asking them, to see what the effects are if you ask a
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question before another battery of questions or after it, to see alsowhat the effects are if you structure a questionnaire completely orif you relax that structure somewhat to permit a relationship to beestablished between the interviewer and the respondent.
I believe there are other aspects of this, too, that are important.What kind of training should we have for our data collectors andwhat kind of educational backgrounds do our best data collectorshave?
What are we learning when we go back and recollect data? Isthat really a measure of error or is it bringing together a lot ofother elements of the process that occurs-the psychology thatoccurs between the data collector and the respondent?
We have begun a long-range planning effort with the CensusBureau. We have had a number of meetings and have developedplans for the CPS of the future. We are beginning some of the re-search. You will be hearing more about it because obviously we aregoing to require budget increases in order to be able to do some ofthis work, but we are getting underway whatever we can at thispoint with existing resources.
I believe that the next redesign has to be a very basic redesign. Itis time for us to do this because we redesign the current populationsurvey after the data from the population census become availableand that would be somewhere in the early 1990's. So this is a goodtime to begin the research and the planning efforts.
We need to have more local data. We need to be sure that peopleunderstand all of the questions that we are asking. We need to seewhether there are better ways for us to do this work.
Senator SARBANES. On January 20, OMB published for commenta set of proposed guidelines for Federal statistical agencies thatwould have to be followed in conducting statistical surveys andother activities.
What effect would the OMB's proposed guidelines for statisticalagencies have on your work at the BLS?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm not sure, Senator. The guidelines are notreally very clear. We have reviewed them with great care and wehave discussed them with others in the statistical system.
We find that many of the goals are very worthwhile, but manywording changes would be required. There are also some thingsthat are misstated and are perhaps impossible to achieve.
If the guidelines were intended to be actual orders, we would Ithink require an enormous increase in budget. If the guidelines areintended to be just that, goals for the future, they might be quiteuseful, with considerable changes in the wording.
Senator SARBANES. Were the guidelines formulated in consulta-tion with the statistical agencies?
Mrs. NORWOOD. No, they were not. They were issued for com-ment and all of the statistical agencies are reviewing them, as wellas many members of the public who are interested in statistics.
We have requested a meeting at OMB to try to get a better un-derstanding of OMB's interpretation of the guidelines. I think theyneed to be substantially rewritten.
Senator SARBANES. I find it very difficult to understand howOMB, which has no significant technical expertise in this area,could undertake to formulate guidelines without engaging in a
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process of discussion and consultation with the various agencies in-volved in conducting the surveys and other statistical activities.
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think the response of OMB to that would bethat what they have tried to do is to pull together a series of docu-ments that already existed. The problem is that in so doing theyhave rewritten them and changed them perhaps in ways they didnot intend. We need to look at that with great care.
I do believe that the overall goals are probably sensible ones. It'sjust a question of how they are written and what would be requiredand whether it's even possible to do some of the things that appearto be specified in that document.
We also have not received consistent answers to our questionsfrom the OMB staff. So we think we need to have more informa-tion.
Senator SARBANES. Well, I don't quarrel with that conclusion andI think the Congress probably shares that view as well in terms ofmore information.
Senator Proxmire.Senator PROXMIRE. Commissioner Norwood, the average work-
week for all production nonsupervisory workers on private nonagri-cultural payrolls decreased.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator PROXMIRE. It decreased by 0.2 hours in March and the
manufacturing workweek went down a little bit, 0.1 hours. Factoryovertime was unchanged.
All these are the kinds of developments that occur when unem-ployment is rising or maybe is expected to rise in the future.Maybe that's the leading indicator. At any rate, it seems to contra-dict again the good news. What's your explanation?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, factory hours are clearly a leading indica-tor, but a one-tenth drop in factory hours I think in 1 month at atime when hours are quite high--
Senator PROXMIRE. How about the overall drop throughout all ofour employment of 2 hours?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, I realize that, but it's factory hours that arethe leading indicator, and a one-tenth drop at a time when thehours are very high, I think we need to wait for another month ortwo of data before we decide that this is a serious problem.
Senator PROXMIRE. But what's your reaction to the fact thatoverall throughout the country as a whole hours of work declinedby twice as much?
Mrs. NORWOOD. They are still very high.Senator PROXMIRE. Well, they're high, but they're going the
wrong way in terms of indication of demand for labor.Isn t it true that usually when unemployment is falling hours in-
crease? This time they went the other way.Mr. PLEwEs. To a certain extent, Senator, I think that something
is going on with hours that we don't quite understand.Over time, I believe employers have used hours as a substitute
for hiring more workers. They increased the hours of the peopleonboard. To the extent that that has happened in the past and tothe extent that hours are coming down, some employment growthcould take place. Employers may be trading some hours for someworkers.
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In some industries that is perhaps what is happening. That's whywe focus mostly on factory hours where we do see a leading indica-tor status there.
Senator PROXMIRE. All right. Then we have two elements herethat are going in a contrary direction. One is the discouraged work-ers are up and, second, hours are down. And the third, which alsopuzzles me very much, is the real hourly earnings have declinedand declined sharply. In dollars of constant purchasing power, thehourly earning index decreased 1.1 percent during the past 12months.
Why should that be in an economy that's recovering and unem-ployment falling? Why are hourly earnings going down?
Mrs. NORWOOD. In part because inflation has decelerated and,therefore, the--
Senator PROXMIRE. But this is in real terms.Mrs. NORWOOD. The engine that pushes wages up has been re-
duced, the speed has been reduced in any case, so we're seeingmuch less upward pressure on wages. I think a further element isthat the hourly earnings only reflects the situation for productionand nonsupervisory workers. The production worker group hasbeen affected by the restructuring of industry and by the shifts inlabor union status.
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, the latter part of your explanation Ican understand. The first part I cannot. It seems to me if inflationis rising, then real wages-which of course are corrected fully forinflation-should be increasing.
Mrs. NORWOOD. But there's usually a lag. We often find thatwhen there is a high rate of inflation an increase in wages mayoccur even after inflation begins to decelerate.
I think the important thing is that labor costs have been keptfairly level. Our employment cost index does not show the declinesthat the hourly earnings index does in real terms. It is moderate,but it is going up at a rate that is close to the rate of inflation,maybe slightly down but not as negative as the other earnings datashow.
Senator PROXMIRE. The fact is that real wages are going down ata time when unemployment is also going down. It seems to me thatwouldn't make any sense based on historical experience.
Mrs. NORWOOD. One also needs to take account of compensationother than wages and salaries, which are not included at all in thehourly earnings index.
Senator PROXMIRE. What changes have there been in compensa-tion? There has been some discussion, but what changes have therebeen?
Mrs. NORWOOD. The cost of many of those has been increasing.Health insurance and pension plans. Those costs to the employersare increasing and that's in a sense a kind of payment to workers.
I'm not suggesting that that changes the picture enormously.Senator PROXMIRE. Are you making that as an assertion or is
that a supposition?Mrs. NORWOOD. No. That's true.Senator PROXMIRE. Can you document that?Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes.Senator PROXMIRE. OK.
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Now on diffusion of employment, that is the percentage of indus-tries in which employment has increased, that s an indication as Iunderstand it of the likelihood of employment increasing and un-employment dropping in the future.
In November, we had a very good record of 71.9 percent diffu-sion. That is, 71.9 percent of the factories work units in this coun-try were increasing employment. In December, that went down to63.2 percent; in January, down to 60 percent; and in March it'sdown to 55.7 percent.
Is that an indication that we may be in some difficulty in thefuture in unemployment?
Mrs. NORWOOD. I think it's an indication of slowing the employ-ment growth. Tom Plewes probably has something more to sayabout that.
Mr. PLEwEs. Even at 55.7 percent, there are more industries thatare expanding than there are staying steady or going down. Thismonth I think we also saw a lot of very small employment changesin the manufacturing sector, and that could turn around. So Iwouldn't put too much on any one month. But I think the pointyou make, Senator, is quite correct, that if it is in a downwardmode it is heavily affected by what's going on in manufacturingand manufacturing is indeed slowing from the fourth quarter. Ithink that it's approaching the threshold where we start to worryabout it, and that s at that 50 percent level that we've talked aboutin the past.
Senator PROXMIRE. Now let me ask a provincial question. Youhave very helpful charts showing unemployment changes betweenMarch 1987 and March 1988 improved, of course, all over the coun-try as we recovered.
However, there were two sections of the country that were par-ticularly in trouble and they were both in trouble to about thesame extent. One was the West South Central. That is Arkansas,Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma. Everybody knows they're in trou-ble. They're in trouble because of not only the agricultural situa-tion but primarily the energy situation-deep trouble.
But then the other that didn't do very well are Indiana, Illinois,Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. And we did about as badly as theWest South Central. We don't have anything like the difficultiesthey have on energy. We don't produce any energy in this area. Iguess Illinois has a little.
What's the explanation for that? Why did the East North Cen-tral do so poorly?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, it's basically the industry problem. Therestill are some plants that are closing down. Some of the industrieslocated in Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio are not doing as well asthose in many other areas. They are trying their best to stay openand to keep the labor force they have. They're certainly not addingworkers. In fact, they have been losing workers. And in some ofthose places people have been leaving, and generally moving West.
Senator PROXMIRE. Now let me ask you a question that has beenput in a different form before but I think the latest unemploymentfigures make it even more important.
The decline of the civilian unemployment rate to 5.6 percentbrings the rate to the lowest level achieved during the 1975-80 ex-
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pansion. That was in May 1979. That achievement, however, oc-curred under very different circumstances. Job growth during thecurrent expansion was weaker than during the 1975-80 expansion.
During the 57 months of the earlier expansion, the economy cre-ated 14 million jobs. That was during 57 months. Compared to14,900,000 jobs during the 64 months of the current expansion.Labor force growth has been much weaker during the current ex-pansion-9.8 million compared to 13 million or about 3.2 millionfewer workers during this expansion. Had labor force growth con-tinued at its earlier pace, the unemployment rate today would bearound 8 percent rather than 5.6 percent.
My question is this. The March unemployment rate of 5.6 per-cent matched the lowest unemployment rate of 1979. How manyfewer new workers did the economy have to absorb during the cur-rent expansion than during the 1975-80 expansion?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I don't have the specific answer to that.However, we have had 64 months of recovery or expansion now
and you're comparing this period to a period when there were anumber of different demographic issues. We've already discussedhere this morning the difference in the labor force, the fact thatthe labor force is growing much more slowly.
Senator PROXMIRE. More women came into the work force in theearlier period?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Pardon me.Senator PROXMIRE. You said more women came into the work
force. That was the main explanation you gave.Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, in the 1960's in particular, but I think
probably in the later 1970's too, women's entrance into the laborforce was greater and there were still more young people reachinglabor force age than today. Over the past year there has been rela-tively little change in the number of young people entering thelabor force. If you look at our business survey, there are 15 to 16million jobs that have been created in the 64 months of recovery.
One of the other reasons, of course, is that the 1981-82 recessionwas steeper and sharper than the 1973-75 recession. So in the be-ginning we recovered more quickly, but we had a much longer wayto go.
But we'll be glad to look at that question.Senator PROXMIRE. My time is up.Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, the participation. of women in
the labor force has gone up really dramatically since 1948, andthere are lots of reasons for that which I think have received ex-tended public discussion. But the labor force participation rate foradult men has declined over that period and not by an insignificantamount.
What's the explanation for that?Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I think we're seeing earlier retirements. I
believe that we may see earlier retirements for women eventuallyas well when they have Social Security coverage and have built upsufficient benefits. I think that's the major reason.
Senator SARBANES. So your explanation for a decline in the par-ticipation rates for adult men from about 90 percent in 1948 to lessthan 80 percent today is early retirement?
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's a large part of it.
I 991 00
Mr. PLEwEs. And more disability retirements now, too.Senator SARBANES. Let me ask you this question. Do you ever
have any nagging doubts about the validity of our survey tech-niques and the figures they produce in terms of giving us a clearpicture of what's happening out there in the economy?
Mr. Plewes earlier said to Senator Proxmire, when he was askingabout some of these hourly figures, "Well, things are going on outthere"-I wrote it down-he said, "Things are going on out therethat we don't understand." I must say to you, particularly thismorning, on occasions I begin to wonder. We just talked about thefact that over 20 years you haven't made any major changes in thecurrent population survey. You've indicated this morning that youfeel a need to do that, and in a very fundamental way.
I guess the question is this: How much concern should we haveabout how accurately we are finding out what's happening in theeconomy?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, the direct answer to your question is, ofcourse, I have concerns. I am constantly looking for ways to dothings better.
The set of data that we issued today, for example, where onesurvey goes in one direction and the other goes in the other direc-tion focuses a lot more attention on these surveys. If they wereboth doing the same thing, we would probably be focusing atten-tion on other issues.
As you know, we don't just go out and count things. We have todefine the phenomenon that we measure and since social and eco-nomic issues keep changing and society's view of them changes,those definitions may have to be revisited. In addition to that, theway in which we live changes. Family relationships have changed.We have a household survey which allows the respondent to pro-vide information about the experience of other people in the house-hold. Forty years ago, that was quite appropriate. Today, I thinkwe ought to be looking to see whether families are as closely knitas they used to be and whether one person in that family can con-tinue responding for the others in the family.
The problem is that if we should find in our review that we haveto change our procedures, then we really are talking about verylarge expansions in budgets, which none of us are anxious to have.Also, the statistical art keeps changing. Ten or fifteen year ago, wetalked about questionnaries but we didn't really understand howthe sociologists and the anthropologists and the linguists and thepsychologists could help us in designing the right kind of question-naire.
For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been asked bythe Department of Labor to do a special survey to try to find outhow much drug testing is being done of employees in business es-tablishments. We put together a questionnaire and we tested it in alaboratory setting to see whether people who were asked thesequestions understood what we were asking. This was a new proce-dure for us. What we used to do was to design a questionnaire andthen spend a lot of money going out into the field trying it out.
We now have learned that there is a step that we can take whichwill make our field tests much more valuable and I think muchmore cost effective. But that's fairly new. I think if you look at the
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literature you will find that 20 years ago there was very little workof that kind.
Tom Plewes and I have been discussing these issues with anOECD working party on employment statistics. We have begun dis-cussions with representatives of the Western European countriesand others who are members of that working group to see what wecan learn from each other about questionnaire design and inter-viewer techniques.
But these are fairly new issues. We have not had a redesign ofthe current population survey for many years, really not a substan-tial one since 1967. We are hard at work in BLS and have been forsome years in modernizing our business survey. I can tell you todaythat that business survey is far better than it was 5 years ago or 10years ago, but it's not yet where I would like it to be.
Senator SARBANES. Let me ask this question just to probe be-neath the surface.
As I understand it, in the employment figures, anyone whoworks a few hours is counted as employed.
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct.Senator SARBANES. So if someone works 3 to 4 hours a week that
person would show in the figures you're giving us as an employedperson.
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct.Senator SARBANES. Has the number of people working less than
what's considered a normal week increased historically over thelast couple of decades?
Mrs. NORWOOD. There has been an increase in part-time workers.And as you know, we have two kinds of part-time workers. Wehave 14.6 million who are working part time because that's just ex-actly what they wanted to do, and then we have another 5.3 mil-lion who are working part time because they can't find a full-timejob. Those are the ones that we need to be very concerned about.
The economy should provide part-time jobs for people who onlywant to work part time.
Senator SARBANES. But the number of both of those categorieshas increased significantly, I take it, in recent years?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's correct.Senator SARBANES. I can see that if someone wants to work part
time, that's what he or she ought to be able to do. But at the sametime we continue to treat that person as employed full time whenwe portray the overall figures. Isn't that correct?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes; although we publish the figures separately,as well.
Senator SARBANES. We talk about job creation, but the job cre-ation doesn't distinguish between a job created for 40 hours a weekor a job for 20 hours a week or a job for 5 hours a week.
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's true, but it is also true that during thecurrent expansion more than 90 percent of the jobs that have beencreated have been full-time jobs.
Senator SARBANES. Now if the people who are working part timebut want to work full time were counted in the unemploymentrate, what would the rate be?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, if we count them and the discouragedworkers, we would have a rate of about 8.8 percent.
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Senator SARBANES. That's counting the discouraged and part-time workers.
Mrs. NORWOOD. And one-half of the part-time employed becausethey're working part of the time.
Senator SARBANES. Right. How does that figure compare histori-cally?
Mrs. NORWOOD. It's lower than it has been certainly during theearly 1980's.
Senator SARBANES. Of course, all the figures were up then. Letme put the question this way. Is there normally the spread be-tween the unemployment rate and the current figure or is thisspread larger than it ordinarily has been?
Mrs. NORWOOD. It may be slightly higher because of the parttime for economic reasons being higher and the discouraged work-ers being higher.
Generally, the direction is pretty much the same. One line fits ontop of the other. But we'll look at that and we will do some chart-ing and send it to you.
[The following information was subsequently supplied for therecord:]
Range of unemployment measures based on varyingdefinitions of unemployment and the labor force,seasonally adjusted, quarterly averages, 1970-88
Pwtat16 r
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Parkst16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
01970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988
Source: rw of Ldcor Statstcs
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Senator SARBANES. Senator Proxmire.Senator PROXMIRE. I just have one other question.What can you tell us about the number and ratio of the unem-
ployed receiving unemployment benefits?Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, that's close to 40 percent I believe.Senator PROXMIRE. What percent?Mrs. NORWOOD. If we look at the regular unemployment, the
total unemployment insured as a percentage of the total unem-ployed in the current population survey, that's 37.6 percent. So ithas gone up slightly. It was down as low as 25 percent a fewmonths ago.
Senator PROXMIRE. Well, that's awfully low it seems to me.Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, it has been.Senator PROXMIRE. I realize it may be above what it was earlier
in the year, but even still it's a very, very low figure. Most peopleassume-those of us who haven't had much experience with unem-ployment-that the people who are unemployed, after all, theyhave unemployment compensation. That's not the case. The greatmajority do not have.
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. I think there has been a consider-able change in labor market behavior and, in part, in the demo-graphics. In order to have unemployment insurance you have tohave worked and have a certain number of credits. Many peoplehave not had that work experience. All of the new entrants to thelabor force, for example.
Senator PROXMIRE. How do you account for the fact that the firstfigure you give us, on May 17, 1975, 67 percent of the unemployedwere covered-67.2 percent?
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Well, I think there have been some changes.Senator PROXMIRE. Now it's down to 37 percent. So it's only a
little better than a half.Mrs. NORWOOD. Let me say first that there are some differences
there that we really do not understand. As I have mentionedbefore, I would like to see a little more attention being given to thestatistical aspects of the unemployment insurance data.
Nevertheless, there have been changes in the law. There arechanges in the way in which the States are administering the law.I think there has been a tightening of the whole system. The re-quirements to get unemployment insurance in some States havebeen changed quite a bit to reduce the possibility of people gettingunemployment insurance unless they meet certain standards. Inthe 1970's, those standards were much looser. Some of that is Stateaction. Some of that is congressional action.
Senator PROXMIRE. At any rate, the fact is that better than threeout of five people who are out of work do not have unemploymentcompensation.
Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct.Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you.Mrs. NORWOOD. And we also have, of course, two-earner families
so that the situation is not quite what it was many, many decadesago. There is some cushioning. I don't think that, however, is inany sense a substitute and should not be considered a substitute forunemployment insurance.
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Senator PROXMIRE. Of course, if we have a woman who has a de-pendent family, it's 'very cruel for them.
Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Those 11 million women, one out of three ofthem is in poverty, and that's a very, very serious situation. Theirchildren may become discouraged workers when they grow up. Idon't have statistical evidence of that, but I am concerned about it.
Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Senator SARBANES. It seems to me this discussion has made clear
that while we have an overall figure that may look good, lots ofproblems become apparent when you start probing beneath thesurface of it. We have- discouraged workers& We have part-timeworkers. We have unemployed people who do not draw any unem-ployment compensation. It's down from roughly two-thirds of thoseunemployed drawing unemployment insurance whereas now it'sabout one-third, roughly speaking, which seems to me a drasticshift.
So there may be things at work beneath the surface that wedon't have a complete grasp of, or a feel for. We also have moretwo-wage-earner families, but I've read some articles that say thatit doesn't enable them to get ahead. It happens simply becausethey want to stay even or keep from falling behind; in many in-stances that is the motive force in the two-earner family. So itdoesn't really give them a cushion or an extra advantage. They arepressed into it, in part, simply to maintain an existing standard ofliving. I don't know whether you have studies on that.
Mrs. NORWOOD. No, we don't.Senator SARBANES. Well, Commissioner, thank you very much
and we thank your colleagues for being with us.The committee is adjourned.[Whereupon, at 10:55 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to
the call of the Chair.]
0
90-832 (144)