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Dr. Katsuhide NAGAYAMA,

Leader, JICA Project Team

UTPUB Urban Transport Planning for

Ulaanbaatar

UTPUB

The UB-Metro

toward a World Competitive City - Ulaanbaatar

BCM Monthly Assembly

28th January, 2013

Contents

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1. Metro Project for Sustainable Ulaanbaatar Transport System

2. Technical Profiles of the Ulaanbaatar Metro

3. Implementation Scheme and Economic/Financial Feasibilities

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Ulaanbaatar City Master Plan 2030 Zoning and Transportation Network

1.1 Compact City Concept proposed in JICA-UBMPS conducted in 2010

Renewal of CBD

Sub-center Sub-center

Sub-center

New Town

New Town

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4-1 Transit-driven Urban Development System in Ulaanbaatar

1.2 A Vision on Ulaanbaatar Transit System Development (Proposed in JICA-UBMPS)

Source: UBMPS, JICA, 2009

1.3 Baseline Scenario 2030 (Do Nothing) Case of future transport demands on existing network

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LEGEND :

Traffic Flow

( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )

VCR<1.00

VCR<1.20

VCR<1.50

1.50<VCR

scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)

Performance of Total Transport Network

Major transport corridors will be fatally congested.

Innovative restructuring of the transport network should be done.

2010 2030 2030/10

Demand

(000/d)

No. of Trips 2,079 4,259 2.0

Prs・Hours 1,098 11,203 10.2

Congestion Rate

(V/C) 0.41 1.49 -

Total Transport Cost

(Million US$/day) 1.9 26.5 14.2

LEGEND :

Traffic Flow

( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )

VCR<1.00

VCR<1.20

VCR<1.50

1.50<VCR

scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)

混雑度

LEGEND :

Traffic Flow

( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )

VCR<1.00

VCR<1.20

VCR<1.50

1.50<VCR

scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)

1.4 Recommended Scenario 2030: Integrated Mass-transit System

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Proposed Mass-transits

Metro

BRT 1

BRT 2

BRT 3

LEGEND :

Traffic Flow

( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )

VCR<1.00

VCR<1.20

VCR<1.50

1.50<VCR

scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)

Congestion Level

Great improvement will be realized, but congestions will still remain, thereby, further strengthening: Road network Mass-transits

Performance of Total Transport Network

2010 2030 2030/10

Demand

(000/d)

No. of Trips 2,079 4,259 2.0

Prs・Hours 1,098 9,556 8.7

Congestion Rate

(V/C) 0.41 0.82 -

Total Transport Cost

(Million US$/day) 1.9 24.5 12.5

1.5 Proposed Structure of : Integrated Development with Mass Transits and Urban Sub-centers

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◄ Service Improvement for►

Competitive public transport;

Traffic Demand Management (TDM) for individual modes

Non-motorized modes (pedestrians & bicycles)

Sukhbaatar Sapporo Tolgoit

Airport Yarmag

Bayankhoshuu

Chingeltei

Amgalan

To New Town/Emeelt

Controlled Growth toward

the East

◄ Transport Infrastructures for ►

Three (3) East-West Corridors

One (1) North-South Corridors

Seven (7) Sub-corridors

6.6 km:

Underground 6.2 km: Elevated 4.9 km: Elevated

17.7 km in Total

1.6 Proposed Ulaanbaatar Metro in Phase 1

1.7 Bypass Development Plan for Freight Railway Service

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After completion of the bypass for freight railway, the UB railway will provide a metropolitan commuter rail service exclusively for passengers.

Tolgoit Logistic Park

Zuummod New

International Airport

Bagakhangai Agro-Industry

Center

Ulaanbaatar City Center

Naraikh

To Beijing

To Moscow

Source: Korean F/S Final Report, JICA-UBMPS

Ulaanbaatar Railway

Railway Bypass (planned)

Access Road to New Airport

1.8 A Concept of Inter-modal System in the UB Metropolitan Area

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Domestic Airport

To Beijin

To Moscow

Ulaanbaatar Rail

(Metropolitan

Commuter Rail)

UB Metro

East-West Line

BRT/LRT

North-South Line

BRT City Ring

Inter-modal Station

Inter-modal Terminal

Regional Logistic Center

Freight Rail Bypass

(Planned)

New Int’l Airport

Ulaanbaatar Station

Phase 1-A

Tolgoit Logistic Center-West

Regional Logistic Center-East

1.9 Relations between UB-Metro Ridership vs. Fare Rates

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An Elastic Relation between Ridership and Fare

If the Fare is zero, about 915,000 passengers would use the UB Metro in 2030.

A proper fare level should be determined at the fare rate that makes the revenue maximum.

Distance (Km) Proportional Fare System:

F = 200 Tg + (K -2) x P Revenue Max. at P=60 Tg/km → Average Fare=440Tg.

1.10 Passengers Demand of UB Metro

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W7 W6 W5 W4 W3 W2 W1 CS E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6

2020

DOWN

UP

W7 W6 W5 W4 W3 W2 W1 CS E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6

150,000

100,000

50,000

50,000

100,000

150,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

50,000

100,000

150,000

2030

DOWN

UP

Pax per Peak-hour per

Direction (PPHD): 10,729

Pax per Peak-hour per Direction

(PPHD): 17,767

Sapporo Rotary Stn.

Daily Demand:

2020: 312,000 pax/day; and

2030: 487,000 pax/day

Contents

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1. Metro Project for Sustainable Ulaanbaatar Transport System

2. Technical Profiles of the Ulaanbaatar Metro

3. Implementation Scheme and Economic/Financial Feasibilities

Elevated Railway integrated with

Urban Development

(BTS, Bangkok)

2.1 Selection of Suitable Transit Mode

Bus Priority (Critiba, Brazil) Guide Way Bus (Nagoya, Japan)

Mass rapid Transit (Tokyo, Japan)

Monorail (Tokyo, Japan)

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

5,000

0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

CA

PA

CIT

Y (

Pers

ons/h

r/la

ne)

OPERATING SPEED (km/hr)

BUS

Tramway

MRT

LRT

Monorail

Demand Zone

BRT

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Central Station & Underground Development

Elevated MRT integrated with Urban Development

2.2 Initial Phase of the East-West Line

The Shield Tunneling Method shall be applied.

2.3 Operation Planning

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Section 2020 2030

Sapporo Rotary Station - 25th Pharmacy Station

10,729 17,767

No. of Pax in Peak Hour per Direction（PHPDT） Train Transport Capacity

Transport Capacity 4 Cars Train

6 Cars Train

Congestion 100% 618 942

Congestion 150% 826 12,58

Congestion 180% 940 1,428

Service Operation

Section Tolgit － Amgalan

Length About 18 km

Max Speed 100 km/h

(UG Section:80 km/h）

Rolling Stocks

Train 3M3T

Congestion 180%

Scheduled Time 27 minutes

Scheduled Speed 39.2 km/h

Train Composition 4 Cars 6 Ｃaｒｓ

2020 2030 2020 2030

Operation Heading in Peak Hour

5 min. 3 min. 8 min. 5 min.

No. of Train 13 20 ８ 13

No. of Rolling Stocks

52 80 48 78

Comparison of Train Operation

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2.4 Project Time-schedule (Tentative)

Contents

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1. Metro Project for Sustainable Ulaanbaatar Transport System

2. Technical Profiles of the Ulaanbaatar Metro

3. Implementation Scheme and Economic/Financial Feasibilities

3.1 Concept of Public Private Partnership (PPP)

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To ensure public benefits &

interests

To seek efficiency & financial sustainability

Long-term

Policy

Commit-

ment

Regulation

& Surveill-

ance

Response

to

Disasters

Ownership

of Infra-

structure &

Facilities

Project

Implementa-

tion Plan

Funding Operation &

Manage-

ment

Customer

Service &

Satisfaction

Formulation of Optimal PPP Projects

Responsibility of Public Sector

Ideas and Capabilities of Private Sector

3.2 A Proposed PPP Mechanism

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The Infrastructure

Owner

The Service Operator

SPC (UB Metro Corporation)

National & Ulaanbaatar City

Governments

Lease-out Subsidies/ Incentives

Rent for Infra. Use

Int’l Funds/ ODA ($)

Strategic Partners Mongolian and Foreign

Investors

US$ 200 Mill.

US$ 1.3 Bill.

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1. Assumptions Operation service start from 2020 Project Life: 30 years up to 2050

2. Investment Cost US$1.5 billion in total,

including engineering and administrative costs.

3. Benefits Savings of Vehicle Operation Cost

(VOC). Saving of Travel Time Cost (TTC)

4. Economic IRR The UB metro is economically

feasible with 20.6% EIRR.

3.3 Project Feasibility

1. Assumptions Evaluation Term: 20 Years Inflation: 9.8% - 5.0% Annual Rent for Infrastructure: 2 % of

the total investment cost

2. Average Fare Option 1=400 Tg. Option 2=600 Tg.

3. Funding Scheme E/D ratio = 3/7 Long-term Loan (5 yrs GP; 20 yrs PB; 4%

IR)

4. Feasibility Op1: FIRR= 8.8 % → not feasible

OP2: FIRR= 16.2 % → Feasible enough

Economic Evaluation Cash-flow Analysis of “SPC”

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Impact on Real Estate Market → Building development potentials with a total of 1,200 ha floor area or US$10.2 billion value market will be materialized by 2030.

New Job Opportunities → A number of 156,000 job opportunities will be newly created, thereby increasing tax revenues in terms of their income and business taxes.

Housing Provision → Approximately 50,000 apartment units will be developed along with the station development.

Underground Arcade (Japan)

3.4 Economic Impacts in the UB Metro Corridor

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UTPUB

Thank you for your attention!