2017 economic outlook & regional housing market forecast · >>>calgary’s housing...

2017 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast

©2017 CREB®. All rights reserved.

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of December 2016. Prepared by Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® chief economist.Edited by Jason Yule. Designed by Chris Audibert.

300 Manning Road NECalgary, AlbertaT2E 8K4, Canada

Phone: 403-263-0530Fax: 403-218-3688Email: [email protected]

creb.comcrebforecast.comcrebnow.com

Forecast Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

Regional Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Energy Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Labour Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

Net Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

Housing Market Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Rental market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

New home market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . �1 1

Resale market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

Detached sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

Attached sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

Apartment sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

District Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

Surrounding Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

Airdrie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

Rocky View Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Cochrane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Chestermere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21

Rural Rocky View . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21

Foothills Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Okotoks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Conten

ts

CREB® | 2017 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET FORECAST 3

>>> Calgary’s housing market is expected to show signs of stability in 2017. City-wide sales are forecasted to total 18,335 units, a three per cent gain over 2016, but 12 per cent below long-term averages. This will help reduce supply levels and support some price stability in the second half of the year.

The transition in the housing market will take time. Alberta’s economy was much softer than many predicted over the past two years, as prolonged weakness in energy weighed on other sectors of the economy. We enter 2017 with high unemployment rates, weak migration and tightened budgets for consumers. Economic recovery is expected in the year ahead, but the pace of growth is forecasted to be slow, particularly in the labour market. This will impact the timing of recovery in the housing market.

While a shift is expected this year, it is important to keep some perspective. Housing sales activity is still forecasted to remain well below normal levels for the city and prices are not expected to be stable across all segments and property types.

Home prices are expected to remain relatively unchanged over 2016 levels in the detached and attached sectors of the market, while the apartment condominium sector faces more downward price pressure due to the excess supply. This will continue well into 2017 until inventory levels ease and the market returns to more balanced conditions.

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE 2017 HOUSING MARKET:

• Employmentlevelsareforecastedto increase in the year ahead, but it won’t be enough to compensate for recent declines;

• Netmigrationisforecastedtoremain well below normal levels in 2017, but a second consecutive year of decline is not expected within the city limits;

• Risingmortgagerates,stricter lending criteria and income adjustments can limit improvements in housing demand, causing further shifts between price segments in the detached segment and activity in attached and apartment;

• Slowernewhomestartsactivityin 2016 and 2017 will help prevent further supply gains in the overall housing market;

• Highlevelsofnewhomeandrental inventory will continue to create challenges in the resale condominium apartment segment. Until this supply can be absorbed, further downward price pressure is expected.

Foreca

st

Summ

ary

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17

City Of Calgary Sales and Price Growth Forecast

Source: CREB®ForecastDetached Attached

Apartment10 Year - Average

Price growth

CREB® | 2017 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET FORECAST4

2014 2015 2016 (F) 2017 (F) Forecaster

Economic Indicators

Alberta GDP growth 4.47% -3.97% -2.22% 2.21% Conference Board of Canada

Calgary CMA GDP growth 5.16% -3.20% -2.06% 1.96% Conference Board of Canada

Calgary CMA employment growth 2.52% 2.14% -1.75% 0.96% Conference Board of Canada

City of Calgary net migration 22,000 24,900 -6,527 1,600 City of Calgary

Housingstarts:SinglefamilyCalgaryCMA 6,494 4,138 3,200 - 3,400 3,400 - 3,600 CMHC

Housing starts: Multiple family Calgary CMA 10,637 8,895 5,300 - 5,700 5,100 - 5,500 CMHC

Calgary CMA two-bedroom average rent 1,322 1,332 1,270 1,260 CMHC

Calgary CMA apartment vacancy rate 1.40% 5.30% 7.00% 7.50% CMHC

Average residential mortgage lending rate 5 year 4.08% 3.77% 3.69% 4.05% Conference Board of Canada

WTIPrice($USD/bbl) $93.17 $48.67 $43.07 $50.66 U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration

HenryHubSpotPrice($USDperMMBtu) $4.53 $2.72 $2.57 $3.37 U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration

2014 2015 2016 2017 (F) Forecaster

MLS®Systemresalemarket

City of Calgary

Sales 25,552 18,839 17,809 18,335 CREB®

Price growth 10.05% 1.30% -3.84% 0.30% CREB®

Newlistings 36,179 33,875 32,274 31,988 CREB®

City of Calgary detached

Sales 15,104 11,519 11,214 11,550 CREB®


City of Calgary attached

Sales 5,649 4,092 3,867 4,002 CREB®


City of Calgary apartment

Sales 4,799 3,228 2,728 2,783 CREB®

Price growth 10.84% 0.05% -5.99% -2.00% CREB®

MARKET OUTLOOK RISK

>>> Economic conditions are expected to stabilize in 2017. However, unexpected changes in oil prices or domestic and international policy shifts could weigh on the economic outlook for Calgary and the province as a whole.

• Stability in the energy sectoris based on expectations of energy prices rising above $50USperbarrelin2017.If those expectations fall short, recovery in the energy sector may be delayed;

• ThenewregimeintheUnitedStatescouldshiftexistingenergyand trade policies, creating uncertain impacts on the Canadian economy;

• Recentpipelineapprovalscouldsupport renewed interest in investment growth and benefit local economic conditions. However, public opposition and cost hurdles still exists for pipeline development, which will weigh on the feasibility of projects;

• Iflocaleconomicconditionsdo not improve in terms of employment, then Calgary risks a second consecutive year of out-migration, which could place further downward pressure on housing activity, including a rise in distressed sales;

• Lendingrulechangesandmortgage rate increases could have a larger-than-expected impact on demand, preventing price stabilization in the Calgary market;

• Highofficevacancyrates,combined with salary adjustments from a larger pool of available workers and housing options, could encourage some companies to consider relocating to Calgary. While this is unlikely to have any immediate impact on our economy, it could provide the basis to support economic diversification.


>>> Alberta’s two-year recession is expected to end in 2017 with thegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)forecasted to grow by 2.2 per cent, according to the Conference Board of Canada. However, the gain is not enough to o�set the annual estimated contraction of 3.97 and 2.22 per cent in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Calgary has been hit especially hard by the cost-cutting measures taken by some energy companies. These spending reductions have impacted a variety of professional positions in the city and other industries that rely on the energy sector.

Consumer confidence in the market has also declined. People who have lost their jobs or were concerned about job loss have altered their budgets, contributing to a reduction in spending on consumer goods.

THE IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY

THE ENERGY SECTOR IS AN IMPORTANT

COMPONENT OF ALBERTA’S ECONOMY. MINING, QUARRYING AND OIL AND

GAS EXTRACTION IS INCLUDED IN THE PRIMARY AND UTILITIES CATEGORY, AND REPRESENTS 30 PER CENT OF THE PROVINCE’S GDP – FAR HIGHER

THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE OF 12 PER CENT.

THE CHALLENGES FACED IN THE LAST

TWO YEARS ALSO FILTERED INTO OTHER SECTORS THAT ARE INFLUENCED

BY THE ENERGY SECTOR. CONTRACTION WAS RECORDED IN SECTORS SUCH AS

BUSINESS SERVICES, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, RETAIL TRADE AND

PERSONAL SERVICES.

THESE SECTORS NOT ONLY REFLECT THE LOWER DEMAND FOR ENGINEERS, GEOLOGISTS AND MATERIALS PRODUCED FOR USE IN THE ENERGY

SECTOR, BUT SPAN TO LESS NEED FOR ACCOMMODATION, RETAIL GOODS, AND

NEW RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS.

‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18

Forecast

GDP Growth Comparison

Source: Statistics Canada,Conference Board of Canada Forecast

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Calgary GDP growthCanada GDP growth

Alberta GDP growth

Alberta 2015 GDP Breakdown by Industry

Source: Statistics Canada,Conference Board of Canada

30%

15%

7%

10%

6%

9%

4%

2%

4%Primary & utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale and retail trade

Transportation and warehousing

Information and cultural industries

Finance, insurance and real estate

Business services

Non-commercial services

Personal services

Public administration

9%4%

Regio

nal

Econo

my


>>> A soft energy sector has weighed on overall economic conditions across the region. Over the past two years, WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)oil prices slid by roughly 60 per cent, causing companies to cut investment spending and reduce operating costs.

These decisions impacted employment throughout the sector. Yet with expected reductions in total oil supply, many in the industry now believe the market has hit bottom. As a result, prices are expected to stabilize between $50and$55USperbarrelin2017.

While oil prices are not high enough to encourage a significant amount of investment growth, a sustained period of pricestabilizationabove$50US per barrel is expected to prevent any further contraction in the energy industry.

• In2017,theenergysectorisexpected to focus on maintaining a low-cost environment, limiting employment growth opportunities;

• Marketaccessisimportantfor future growth in the Canadian energy sector. Positive momentum can support renewed interest in investment, but long time delays and cost barriers could adversely impact the local market;

• Ifproposedproductioncutsmadeby the Organization of Petroleum ExportingCountries(OPEC)areimplemented, this can support price improvements in 2017;

• PotentialshiftingofU.S.energypolicy could have implications on the Canadian energy sector. While the details of these changes are unknown, they would play an important role in influencing the local economy;

• ThePetroleumServicesAssociationofCanada(PSAC)expects drilling activity to improve slightly from 3,950 active and new wells in 2016 to 4,175 in 2017, but will remain 63 per cent below 2014 activity. PSACalsodoesnotexpectasignificant ramp up of activity until Alberta gains access to global markets and commodity prices improve;

• TheCanadianAssociationofPetroleumProducers(CAPP)expects modest capital spending improvements in Western Canada, rising to $22 billion this year compared to $17.5 billion in 2016. However, oilsands investment is still expected to drop in 2017 to $13 billion, from $16 billion in 2016, which is 60 per cent below the $33 billion spent in 2014.

Crude Oil Price

Source: CME Group, WTI Financial Futures Quotes,U.S. Energy Information Administration

US $/BBL

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

WTI Futures price

WTI price

Energ

y

Secto

r


Labour

Marke

t

>>> Employment levels have been declining throughout 2016. Most of the initial job losses occurred in industries directly related to the energy sector. As the energy slowdown persisted, the impact spread to other sectors of the economy.

Sincetheendof2014,morethan 40,000 full-time positions have been lost in Calgary, while unemployment rates have risen to more than 10 per cent. This trend will shift in 2017, as the Conference Board of Canada has forecasted employment growth to improve by a modest 0.96 per cent.

While this will not compensate for all the losses in the past year, it should contribute to softer unemployment rates, which are forecasted to average 7.8 per cent in2017.Slightimprovementsinthelabour market should help prevent any further contractions in housing demand.

• Calgary’s unemployment rate roseto10.3percentbyNovember2016,far higher than the provincial average of nine and the 6.8 per cent recorded in Edmonton;

• Anunusuallyhighunemploymentrate is expected to continue to impact wage rates, consumer spending and overall economic activity;

• Provincialaverageweeklyearnings including overtime trended down throughout most of 2015 and 2016. The declines have averaged nearly three per cent in 2016. While wage growth levels eased during the last recession, it was the first time there was a consistent year-over-year decline in this decade;

• Employment declines in 2016were all full-time job losses; the number of part-time positions actually increased. The improvement in part-time positions reflects cost cutting measures that took place over the past two years, causing employers to shift some of the full-time positions toward part-time;

• Inthefirstpartoftheeconomicdownturn, employment activity was hit hardest in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, primary and utilities and business services. As weak conditions persisted, Calgary started to see

the impact spread into other service sectors and industries, including transportation and warehousing, personal and commercial services and public administration;

• Theonlysectorsthathaverecorded employment levels higher than 2014 are non-commercial services such as education and medical, personal services and wholesale and retail trade.

Calgary CMA Full and Part Time Employment

Source: Statistics Canada

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Number of Jobs Unemployment Rate

Full-time employment growth Part-time employment growthUnemployment rate

Jan‘03

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

-1.75%

0.96%

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17

Calgary CMA Employment Growth

Y/Y % change

Forecast% Change (Y/Y) Total employment Source: Statistics Canada,

Conference Board of Canada Forecast


>>> Job losses and higher unemployment levels not only madeitdifficulttoattractmigrantsto the city last year, but also caused more people to leave then come in, based on the 2016 annual civic census. While net migration levels were expected to slow, they were not expected to decline or exceed the outflow recorded in 2009.

The City of Calgary anticipates net migration will total 1,600 people in 2017, which is well below the decade-long annual average of more than 14,000 people. These weak migration levels will continue to prolong significant improvements in housing demand this year.

• Calgary’snetmigrationisexpected to total 1,600 and 1,500 people in 2017 and 2018;

• Internationalmigrationhaskeptprovincial levels positive, but inter-provincial migration has recorded quarterly declines since the fourth quarter of 2015;

• Interprovincialmigrantswere moving mostly to British Columbia and Ontario. Moving into 2017, weaker economic growth is expected in both of those provinces due to slower growth in their housing markets. These factors may limit some of the outflow of migrants from Alberta to these regions.

A COMPARISON OF PAST RECESSIONS AND THE IMPACT ON HOUSING PRICES

THE CURRENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN HAS BEEN FAR LONGER AND DEEPER

THAN ORIGINAL ESTIMATES. AFTER TWO CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF

RECESSIONARY CONDITIONS, MANY HAVE CONCLUDED THIS DOWNTURN

IS WORSE THAN THAT EXPERIENCED IN 2009 AND MORE COMPARABLE

TO THE INFAMOUS ’80S IN CALGARY, WHICH WAS THE LAST TIME CALGARY

EXPERIENCED A PROLONGED RECESSION WITH DOUBLE-DIGIT

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND STEEP HOME PRICE ADJUSTMENTS.

THESE COMPARISONS HAVE MERIT, BUT THERE ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES

THAT SHOULDN’T BE OVERLOOKED. THE PULLBACK IN THE ’80S WAS

ALSO OIL RELATED, BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE SAME KIND OF IMPACT

ON HOME PRICES, PRIMARILY DUE TO SUPPLY LEVELS IN THE MARKET. RESALE SUPPLY DID NOT RISE TO LEVELS RECORDED IN THE LAST CYCLE, NOR WERE THEIR REPORTS OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF FORECLOSURES COMING

ONTO THE MARKET, LIKE IN THE ’80S. SO WHILE DEMAND HAS FALLEN WELL

BELOW TYPICAL NORMS, SUPPLY LEVELS HAVE NOT RISEN TO

PREVIOUS HIGHS, PREVENTING STEEPER PRICE ADJUSTMENTS.

City of Calgary Net Migration

Source: City of Calgary Census,City of Calgary Forecast

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17

Forecast

Net

Migra

tion


>>> The current economic climate has reduced housing demand across the resale, new home and rental markets. Transactions are down across all product types, and while supply levels have been slowly adjusting, market oversupply stood out as a dominate theme for the local housing market in 2016.

A weak demand environment is expected to persist in 2017, but supply growth should start to ease. These changes will help narrow the gap between housing supply and demand by the end of 2017. However, the oversupply will likely persist in higher-density sectors, resulting in a divergence in price activity from the lower-density detached sector to the higher-density apartment sector.

CHANGES TO MORTGAGE RULES

OVER THE PAST EIGHT YEARS, THERE

HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF CHANGES TO THE RULES AROUND GOVERNMENT-BACKED MORTGAGE INSURANCE. SOME OF THESE CHANGES TARGETED

CONSUMERS AS A WAY OF LIMITING DEBT AND EQUITY TAKE-OUTS. OTHER POLICY

CHANGES WERE DESIGNED TO MAKE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MORE PRUDENT

WITH THEIR LENDING AND STRENGTHEN THEIR CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO A

POTENTIAL HOUSING MARKET CRISIS.

LENDERS HAVE RECENTLY SEEN CHANGES TO CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, INDICATING THAT MORE RISK WILL SHIFT FROM GOVERNMENT TOWARD FINANCIAL

INSTITUTIONS. TO ADJUST FOR INCREASED RISK, THESE INSTITUTIONS

ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MORTGAGE RATES, IMPACTING HOUSING DEMAND

AND PRICES.

CONSUMERS HAVE SEEN A LARGE AMOUNT OF CHANGE IN RECENT YEARS. AMORTIZATIONS HAVE MOVED FROM

40 YEARS IN 2008 TO 25 YEARS TODAY. MINIMUM EQUITY REQUIREMENTS

ARE NOW FIVE TO 10 PER CENT, DE-PENDING ON THE PURCHASE PRICE, AND

THERE IS A LIMIT ON THE AMOUNT OF EQUITY TAKE-OUT THAT CAN OCCUR ON

A REFINANCE.

AS OF MID-OCTOBER 2016, PURCHASERS OR THOSE LOOKING

TO REFINANCING WITH A DIFFERENT LENDING INSTITUTION WILL BE

REQUIRED TO QUALIFY FOR LOAN AMOUNTS AT THE HIGHER BENCHMARK

RATE PUBLISHED BY THE BANK OF CANADA. THIS CHANGE WILL LIMIT

WHAT PURCHASERS CAN AFFORD.

THE CURRENT RULE CHANGES ARE COMING AT A TIME WHEN THE CALGARY

MARKET HAS FACED PRICE ADJUSTMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER-THAN-EXPECTED RECESSION, SIGNIFICANT JOB LOSSES AND DECLINING INCOMES. WHILE

THE FULL IMPACT OF THESE CHANGES IS STILL LARGELY UNKNOWN, NEW

PROHIBITIVE MEASURES MAY PROLONG PRICE RECOVERY FOR OUR REGIONAL

HOUSING MARKET.

Housing

Marke

t

Activi

ty

>>> Based on the most recent CMHC rental market survey, 2016 purpose-built apartment vacancy rates reached new highs at seven per cent. The main contributors were new rental supply, job losses, high unemployment rates and an outflow of migrants from the city.

Higher vacancy rates placed downward pressure on rental rates, with estimated declines of 7.5 per cent for two-bedroom purpose-built units in 2016.

The secondary rental market measured by CMHC is primarily focused on condominium apartments. Based on its survey, more

than 30 per cent of condominium apartments are identified as rented units. The surveyed vacancy rate in this segment of the market remained unchanged from the last survey as it is expected that renters will be incentivized by improved services and a more than 12 per cent drop in rental rates.

Elevated supply in the rental market can influence investor ownership

demand. Higher vacancy levels and lower rental rates may impact expected returns. As vacancies start to ease and rental rates stabilize over the next several years, interest from investors could improve.

In the meantime, higher volume of rental supply, combined with more stringent ownership qualifications, could limit ownership demand growth from first-time buyers.

Calgary CMA Total Purpose Built Row and Apartment Vacancy Rate

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16

Source: CMHC, 2016 vacancy based on October, CMHC survey

Renta

l

Marke

t


>>> Calgary’s housing starts have been declining for the past two years. This pullback has helped reduce the amount of product under construction, but inventory levels continue to remain elevated.

While supply is expected to ease in 2017, Calgary will likely continue to feel the influence on pricing in the resale market until current inventory levels reach normal levels (particularly in the higher-density markets).

• Housing starts for Calgary CensusMetropolitanAreas(CMA)areforecasted to range between 8,300 and 9,300 units in 2016 and 2017. Canada Mortgage and HousingCorp.(CMHC)isn’tanticipating a decline below 2016 levels, but does expect starts to remain well below historical norms;

• Single-family starts are expectedto improve by a minimum of six per cent for a total of 3,400 units in 2017, while multi-family starts are expected to range between 5,100 and 5,500 units, which are just below 2016 estimates. The single-family sector has not seen the same rise in inventory levels as the multi-family, making the dynamics very di�erent;

• InventorylevelsmorethandoubledbyNovember2016,reaching levels not seen since 2001. The largest increase in supply occurred within higher-density product. Apartment product represents 53 per cent of the total inventory and was nearly five times higher than levels recorded last year. Meanwhile, detached inventory only climbed by 15 per cent over November2016levels;

• AsofNovember2016,year-to-date single-family starts totaled 3,195 units, making it one of the lowest on record since the late 1980s. Multi-family starts also contracted for the second consecutive year, but activity well above the lows recorded over the last decade;

• Slowerpopulationgrowthdueto weaker net migration levels is expected to reduce household formation numbers in 2017, impacting demand for new home construction. The City of Calgary expects household formation levels to average 4,000 units over the next two years, which is well below historical averages.

New

Home

Marke

tCalgary CMA Under Construction and New Home Inventory

Source: CMHC®

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Single-family Multi-family Inventory

Jan‘03

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

Calgary CMA Housing Starts - YTD November

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Single-family Multi-family

YTD‘03

YTD‘02

YTD‘04

YTD‘05

YTD‘06

YTD‘07

YTD‘08

YTD‘09

YTD‘10

YTD‘11

YTD‘12

YTD‘13

YTD‘14

YTD‘15

YTD‘16

Source: CMHC®, year-to-date


>>> Demand for resale product in 2017 is expected to gradually improve over 2016 levels, but remain well below long-term trends.

Most economic indicators point toward stability or modest improvement. While this will take some time to filter into substantial improvements in the Calgary resale housing market, no further annual pullbacks are expected.

Prices are also expected to stabilize in 2017 in the detached and attached sectors of the market as economic conditions start to improve. However, downward price adjustments may persist in the early

portion of the year as the market transitions toward more balanced conditions.

Newlistingsareexpectedtofalljust short of last year’s levels and narrow the gap between the

amount of sales and new listings. Improvements in the sales-to-new-listings ratio should place some downward pressure on overall inventory levels and slowly bring the market back toward more balanced conditions.

>>> Annual detached home prices in 2017 are expected to be 0.8 per cent higher than levels recorded in 2016. While further monthly contractions could occur in the beginning of the year, modest improvements are anticipated in the later portion of 2017, which will help balance out the early pullback. Despite the expected gains, it will not be enough to compensate for the 3.23 per cent annual decline recorded in 2016.

The detached sector of the market has seen the least amount of downward pressure on prices since the start of the downturn. While demand eased, so have

new listings, limiting supply growth. In addition, there has been less inventory buildup within the competing new home detached sector.

Resale

Marke

tCalgary Sales, Listings and Price Growth Forecast

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Source: CREB®

‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17

ForecastSales New listings Price growth

Calgary Benchmark Price and Growth - Detached

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

‘03 ‘02‘01 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16

Source: CREB®Y/Y % change benchmark price Benchmark price

Detac

hed

Secto

r


Salesgrowthofthreepercent is anticipated in 2017, as economic conditions improve. This will help push the market toward more balanced conditions and prevent further downward pressure on prices by the end of the year.

• Benchmarkpricesreachedanew monthly high of $522,400 in October 2014. By December 2016, prices had declined by 4.7 per cent;

• Communitieswithhigher-priced detached homes generally recorded steeper declines relative to communities with lower-priced detached homes;

• District-wide,therangeofannualprice adjustments spanned from a low of 1.77 per cent to a high of 5.10 per cent in 2016.

A LOOK AT ACTIVITY IN DIFFERENT PRICE RANGES

DETACHED PRICE TRENDS CAN VARY

SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON PRICE RANGE AND LOCATION. WHILE OVERALL

DETACHED INVENTORY LEVELS DID NOT SURPASS THE HIGHS PREVIOUSLY

RECORDED IN THE LAST DOWNTURN, INVENTORY FOR HOMES PRICED OVER

$600,000 WAS COMPARABLE.

THE SECTOR REACTED QUITE DIFFERENTLY FOR LOWER-PRICED

PRODUCT. DESPITE SOME NOTICEABLE INVENTORY GAINS IN THE

$400,000 TO $600,000 RANGE OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, OVERALL INVENTORY FOR HOMES PRICED BELOW $600,000 REMAINED

WELL BELOW PREVIOUS HIGHS.

WHEN YOU COMPARE INVENTORY

WITH SALES ACTIVITY, IT’S CLEAR THAT MOST OF THE MARKET IMBALANCE

HAS OCCURRED WITH HIGHER-END PRODUCT. THIS PARTIALLY REFLECTS

THE DYNAMIC OF THE EMPLOYMENT MARKET, WITH THE BULK OF EARLY

JOB LOSSES OCCURRING IN SOME OF THE HIGHER-PAID PROFESSIONAL

POSITIONS.

THE HIGH END OF THE DETACHED

HOUSING SECTOR HAS SEEN MONTHS OF SUPPLY RISE ABOVE EXPECTED

NORMS, LIKELY RESULTING IN STEEPER PRICE ADJUSTMENTS IN THOSE

SEGMENTS. WHILE EVEN THE LOWER PRICE RANGES HAVE SEEN SUPPLY

GAINS EXCEED DEMAND GROWTH, IT REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW BY

COMPARISON, SUGGESTING PRICE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS

SEVERE IN THOSE SEGMENTS.

Detac

hed

Secto

r Cont.

Months of Supply and Price Changes - Detached

Source: CREB®

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan‘03

Jan‘02

Jan‘01

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

Months of supply 12 month trend Y/Y benchmark price change

Months of Supply by Price Range - Detached

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Source: CREB®2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

<$300,000 $500,000

-$599,999

$400,000-

$499,999

$300,000-

$399,999

$600,000-

$699,999

$700,000-

$799,999$1,000,000+


Attach

ed

Secto

r

>>> The attached segment of the market includes two main property types: semi-detached and row. Together, they make up nearly 22 per cent of all sales activity in Calgary, but both have demonstrated very di�erent trends when compared to each other.

In 2016, semi-detached sales grew by 3.98 per cent over the previous year. While still below highs recorded in 2014, sales in this sector kept pace with longer-term averages. This is partially related to growing supply in the $200,000 to $400,000 pricerange.Semi-detachedsalesalso improved in the $600,000 to $699,999 range, which was likely related to price adjustments that supported sales growth activity.

City-wide semi-detached prices have declined by 5.49 per cent since the start of the recession. This pullback was at a faster pace than the detached market, and may have supported sales growth for consumers who wanted an alternative to a condo, but could not a�ord a detached home in the community they preferred.

Rowsaleswenttheotherdirectionand declined by 11.84 per cent in 2016, well below recent highs and 19 per cent below long-term averages. Inventories for this product neared all-time highs in 2016, pushing the months of supply up to near record levels. This resulted in steeper price declinesforthisproducttype.Rowprices declined by 4.8 per cent on an annual basis in 2016 and more than 7.01 per cent since recent highs in March 2015.

Price declines and a shift in demand toward more a�ordable product could benefit this sector of the market in 2017. While discrepancies will continue to exist in both the semi and row product, prices are expected to stabilize as inventories ease with modest improvements in sales.

Price Growth Comparison

Source: CREB®

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16

Semi-detached price growth Semi-detached priceRow price Row price growth

Forecast Sales Comparison

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Source: CREB®

Detached sales growth Apartment sales growthAttached sales growth Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017


>>> The apartment sector faced the largest adjustment in terms of sales, inventoryandpricein2016.Risingsupply and a significant drop in demand caused the average months of supply to rise to levels similar to those recorded in the last recession.

The apartment segment has seen elevated supply in the resale sector, and it has also faced increased competition from the new home and rental markets. A higher volume of rental supply choice, combined with declining rental rates and stricter ownership conditions, have reduced any sense of urgency for renters to consider home ownership.

There are also currently 4,320 condo apartment units under construction in the new home sector in Calgary, and 780 units in inventory. The added competition, combined with excess resale supply, contributed to steeper apartment condominium price adjustments.

Oversupply in the apartment market has pushed prices down by 11.3 per cent since the start of the recession. While the oversupply scenario may start to ease by the end of 2017, it will likely persist for most of year and cause prices to contract by another two per cent.

Apartm

ent

Secto

rMonths of Supply and Price Changes - Apartment

Source: CREB®

-20%

-30%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan‘03

Jan‘02

Jan‘01

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

Months of supply 12 month trend Y/Y benchmark price change

Forecast Price Comparison

-8%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: CREB®Detached AttachedApartment Forecast

506

,26

0

271,

672

334

,64

8


Distric

t

Summ

ary

CityCentre

East

North

North EastNorth West

West

South South East

DISTRICT MAP

CITY OF CALGARY


Distric

t

Summ

ary

Cont. >>> Most districts in Calgary recorded slower sales activity in 2016.

However, the areas with the largest price adjustments were often dealing with elevated levels of supply and added competition from the new home market.

SalesSales growth

New listings

New listings growth

Sales to new listings ratio

Months of supply

Benchmark price

Year-over-year benchmark price change

Share of district sales

DETACHEDCity Centre 1,165 12.9% 2,089 -12.4% 55.77% 4.15 654,425 -3.99% 10.39%NorthEast 1,324 -15.5% 2,313 -2.2% 57.24% 3.05 $390,317 -2.12% 11.81%North 1,570 -3.1% 2,416 -2.4% 64.98% 2.58 $443,225 -1.77% 14.00%NorthWest 1,670 3.5% 2,436 -7.2% 68.56% 2.29 $544,300 -3.33% 14.89%West 1,226 13.0% 2,070 -9.6% 59.23% 3.47 $697,467 -2.35% 10.93%South 2,189 -7.6% 3,402 -8.4% 64.34% 2.74 $478,792 -3.49% 19.52%SouthEast 1,715 -8.5% 2,666 -9.4% 64.33% 2.82 $447,967 -5.10% 15.29%East 356 0.6% 523 4.8% 68.07% 2.26 $355,975 -2.49% 3.17%Total City 11,214 -2.6% 17,915 -7.2% 62.60% 2.91 $502,242 -3.23% 100.00%APARTMENTCity Centre 1,298 -11.6% 3,444 -1.3% 37.69% 6.78 304,658 -5.88% 47.58%NorthEast 107 -25.7% 306 -8.1% 34.97% 7.68 $260,425 -4.31% 3.92%North 152 -28.0% 350 -7.9% 43.43% 5.33 $240,875 -6.70% 5.57%NorthWest 253 -20.4% 597 3.1% 42.38% 5.86 $263,275 -5.15% 9.27%West 290 -14.7% 700 -5.3% 41.43% 6.07 $255,217 -7.41% 10.63%South 383 -14.5% 869 -0.2% 44.07% 5.98 $244,500 -5.83% 14.04%SouthEast 181 -13.4% 487 19.1% 37.17% 7.03 $242,542 -4.56% 6.63%East 63 -28.4% 187 -8.3% 33.69% 8.33 $230,383 -4.94% 2.31%Total City 2,728 -15.5% 6,946 -1.0% 39.27% 6.52 $277,217 -5.99% 100.00%SEMI-DETACHEDCity Centre 510 1.2% 1,034 -22.5% 49.32% 4.88 698,292 -2.40% 29.60%NorthEast 195 -7.1% 344 15.4% 56.69% 3.02 $306,658 -2.29% 11.32%North 156 -6.6% 244 -1.2% 63.93% 2.46 $323,858 -2.66% 9.05%NorthWest 180 20.0% 296 16.5% 60.81% 3.09 $359,633 -1.83% 10.45%West 166 5.1% 301 -4.7% 55.15% 3.92 $454,000 -1.81% 9.63%South 236 16.3% 371 17.8% 63.61% 2.83 $343,767 -3.44% 13.70%SouthEast 211 12.8% 302 3.8% 69.87% 2.53 $303,392 -4.76% 12.25%East 69 -11.5% 125 1.6% 55.20% 3.81 $278,717 -3.19% 4.00%Total City 1,723 4.0% 3,017 -5.1% 57.11% 3.56 $385,875 -2.54% 100.00%ROWCity Centre 368 12.5% 837 5.0% 43.97% 6.42 460,083 -5.61% 17.16%NorthEast 213 -23.7% 435 -2.5% 48.97% 4.39 $225,992 -3.15% 9.93%North 286 -15.4% 562 4.5% 50.89% 4.28 $279,992 -5.99% 13.34%NorthWest 265 0.4% 497 14.0% 53.32% 3.82 $321,175 -6.20% 12.36%West 249 -14.4% 583 -1.4% 42.71% 5.58 $354,733 -5.82% 11.61%South 383 -19.5% 749 1.2% 51.13% 4.21 $277,450 -3.89% 17.86%SouthEast 320 -13.0% 613 -10.5% 52.20% 4.24 $313,758 -2.87% 14.93%East 60 -32.6% 120 -9.8% 50.00% 4.35 $216,492 -2.01% 2.80%Total City 2,144 -11.8% 4,395 0.7% 48.78% 4.74 $313,258 -4.81% 100.00%

*Districtsalesmaynotmatchtotalcitysales,assomeareaswithinthecitylimitsarenotanofficialcommunitylocatedwithinaspecificdistrict.


REGIONAL MAP

Strathmore

Vulcan

Didsbury

Carstairs

Blackie

Okotoks

HighRiver

HeritagePointe

Cayley

BlackDiamond

TurnerValley

Beiseker

Chestermere

Langdon

Irricana

Cochrane

Bragg Creek

RedwoodMeadows

Cremona

Mountain View

RockyView

Foothills

Calgary

Airdrie

Wheatland

Vulcan

Share of Sales 2016

Source: CREB®

78%

6%

6%5%

2% 1% 2%

Calgary

Airdrie

Rocky View Region

Foothills Region

Mountain View Region

Wheatland Region

Other Active Areas

Surro

unding

Area

2016 annual average detached benchmark price

Year- over-year price change

Typical Home Attributes

Gross living area (above ground) Year built Lot size

Above ground bedrooms

Airdrie 385,617 -2.88% 1,463 1998 4,651 3

Cochrane 424,108 -3.87% 1,456 1996 5,740 3

Chestermere 490,808 -2.54% 1,884 2001 5,593 3

RuralRockyView 947,600 -6.38% 2,130 1991 87,120 3

Okotoks 440,408 -0.43% 1,454 1997 5,038 3

RuralFoothills 664,142 -5.77% 1,723 1987 176,418 3

Strathmore 365,186 -0.02% 1,255 1996 5,606 3

City of Calgary 502,242 -3.23% 1,307 1984 4,854 3

Source:CREB®


Airdrie

>>> With its close proximity to Calgary and relatively a�ordable detached sector, Airdrie has recorded tremendous population growth over the past several years.

Demand in this market has remained fairly robust relative to longer-term averages, but significant supply gains for new home and resale product (in Airdrie andCalgary)wereenoughtooffsetelevated sales. These conditions contributed to a decline in home prices throughout Airdrie.

• Detachedpricesaveraged $385,617 in 2016, 2.88 per cent below the previous year. This was a slower annual price adjustment than the detached market in Calgary, and was primarily related to the a�ordability of detached homes in Airdrie;

• Apartmentandattachedbenchmark prices averaged $202,250 and $266,300 in 2016, which represented a decline of seven and 4.5 per cent, respectively. These sectors accounted for 30 per cent of all residential resale transactions in Airdrie;

• Totalannualresidentialsalesactivity declined by 6.2 per cent to 1,334 units in 2016, but was well above long-term trends. Detached sales activity continued to be the dominant sector at 60 per cent of total sales;

• Elevatednewlistingsrelativeto sales activity was a key contributor to rising inventory levels, which averaged 412 units in 2016, the second highest on record;

• BuildersscaledbackAirdrienewhome starts in 2016, which will help limit inventory gains in the market this year. CMHC reported almost 30 per cent fewer housing starts from January to October, compared to the same period in 2015 — the largest decrease being apartment units at 80 units, compared to 284 for the same period in 2015.

Airdrie Inventory Comparison - Residential

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Source: CREB®

Jan‘03

Jan‘02

Jan‘01

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

Detached Semi-detached ApartmentRow Inventory trend

Airdrie Price Change Comparison

385,

617

202,

250

266

,30

0

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: CREB®

Detached price growth Apartment price growthAttached price growth


Rocky V

iew

Regio

n

>>> RockyViewRegionincludesallMLS®activityintownsandrural areas within the geographical area, excluding Airdrie.

Most of the sales activity in RockyViewoccursinCochrane,Chestermere and the rural areas surrounding this jurisdiction

>>> Cochrane’s residential sales activity in 2016 kept pace with 2015 levels, totalling 590 units. This total was above the five-year sales average by 4.6 per cent, and mostly due to gains in the attached sector of the market.

Elevated levels of inventory relative to demand have contributed to annual detached benchmark price declines of 3.8 per cent in Cochrane.

• Ahigherdistributionofsalesshifted toward the $300,000 to $400,000 price range in 2016. This was a departure from the norm where an equal number of sales typically occur in the $300,000 to $400,000 and $400,000 to $500,000 price ranges;

• Thelevelofnewlistingsremained elevated in 2016 and far outpaced sales activity. This caused inventory levels to rise to new record highs;

• Inventoryaveraged285units in 2016, a 15 per cent increase from 2015 and 37 per cent above the five-year average. The highest gains in inventory were within the attached sector of the market, which accounted for more than 30 per cent of total residential inventory in Cochrane;

• Homebuildersadjustedforcompeting resale supply by pulling back the number of housing starts in 2016.

Share of Sales - Rocky View Region

Source: CREB®

Rural Rocky View

Chestermere

Cochrane

Other

20.34%

20.90%

41.67%

17.09%

Cochra

neCochrane Inventory - Residential

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Source: CREB®

Jan‘03

Jan‘02

Jan‘01

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

Detached Semi-detached ApartmentRow Inventory trend


>>> Salesactivityin2016declinedby 17 per cent from 2015 to 296 units. Total transactions remained well below peak levels in 2014, and fell moderately below the five-year sales average of 321 units.

• Asthenumberofsalesrelativeto the number of new listings declined, inventory levels have been building in Chestermere. These supply gains are likely contributing to downward pressure on pricing;

• Thedetachedbenchmarkpricein Chestermere recorded year-over-year declines throughout most of 2016;

• Onaverage,theannualdetachedbenchmark price totaled $490,808, 2.5 per cent below 2015 levels.

>>> RuralRockyViewsalesactivitytotalled 288 units in 2016, which was only 3.4 per cent below 2015, but a full 37 per cent o� of sales levels achieved in 2014.

The annual benchmark price in RuralRockyViewwas$949,017 in 2016, a decrease of 6.63 per cent compared to 2015.

• Morethan86percentofthesales activity in this region in 2016 was above $700,000. While salesactivityeasedinRuralRockyView,thecontractioninnew listings helped bring down inventory levels in the region;

• Priceadjustmentswerealsofairly significant in this sector, which wasn’t a surprise given that most homes were in the upper price ranges. These conditions discouraged many consumers from listing their home, preventing further inventory gains.

Chestermere Sales and New Listings Trend - Residential

Source: CREB®

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan‘96

Jan‘94

Jan‘92

Jan‘98

Jan‘00

Jan‘02

Jan‘04

Jan‘06

Jan‘08

Jan‘10

Jan‘12

Jan‘14

Jan‘16

New listings trend Sales trend

Cheste

rmer

e

Rural

Rocky V

iewRural Rocky View Sales to New Listings Ratio and Inventory - Residential

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan‘03

Jan‘02

Jan‘01

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

Inventory 12 month trend Sales to new listings ratio trended Source: CREB®


Foothills

Regio

n

>>> TheFoothillsRegionaccountsforfivepercentofCREB®’sregional sales. Within this region, nearly 50 per cent of all resale activity occurs in Okotoks.

>>> Salesactivitydeclinedbyfive per cent in 2016. However, new listings also contracted in Okotoks and caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to be fairly stable, limiting the impact on home prices.

• Adecreaseinnewlistingsprevented any significant change in overall inventory levels. Without any significant change in supply levels relative to demand, prices managed to remain relatively stable in 2016;

• Theannualbenchmarkprice of a detached property was $440,408 in 2016, similar to the annual average of $442,317 recorded in 2015.

Okoto

ks

Share of Sales - Foothills Region

Source: CREB®

Foothills

High River

Okotoks

Other

16.20%

17.50%

49.17%

17.59%

Okotoks Benchmark Price and Growth - Detached

Source: CREB®

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan‘03

Jan‘02

Jan‘01

Jan‘04

Jan‘05

Jan‘06

Jan‘07

Jan‘08

Jan‘09

Jan‘10

Jan‘11

Jan‘12

Jan‘13

Jan‘14

Jan‘15

Jan‘16

Y/Y % change benchmark price Benchmark price


CREB® is a professional body of more than 5,000 licensed brokers and registered associates, representing 290 member o¡ces. CREB® is dedicated to enhancing the value, integrity and expertise of its REALTOR® members.

We are committed to equipping our members with the right tools, services and education to achieve professional excellence — and, in turn, enabling REALTORS® to o¥er the best possible service to their clients.

Our REALTORS® are committed to a high standard of professional conduct, ongoing education, and a strict Code of Ethics and standards of business practice. Using the services of a professional REALTOR® can help consumers take full advantage of real estate opportunities, while reducing their risks when buying or selling real estate.

CREB® operates and maintains the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) System for Calgary and the surrounding area. Through the MLS® System, members and, in turn, their clients have immediate access to the latest information on properties listed for sale. Through the MLS® System, REALTORS® can provide the buying and selling public with the broadest possible market exposure and the most complete and up-to-date market information.

Copyright ©2016 CREB®. All rights reserved. CREB® grants reasonable rights of use of this publication’s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions and forecasts, including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CREB®’s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason.

Any use of the publication’s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: CREB® 2017 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market Forecast.

300 Manning Road NECalgary, AlbertaT2E 8K4, Canada

Phone: 403-263-0530Fax: 403-218-3688Email: [email protected]

creb.comcrebforecast.comcrebnow.com

2017 economic outlook & regional housing market forecast · >>>calgary’s housing...

Documents