2016 ohio job outlook

Ohio Job Outlook to 2016


• Economic growth• Labor force growth• Industry employment• Occupational employment

2

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Employed UnemployedMillions

Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information

3

State of Ohio Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment

Trends, 1980-2007

U.S. and Ohio Unemployment Rates

The unemployment rate declined as the economic expansion continued through 2000.

Ohio’s unemployment rate climbed above the national rate after that.

In 2007, Ohio’s rate was one percentage point higher than the U.S.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

U.S. Ohio

4

Gross Domestic Product for Ohio

• Ohio’s value of Gross Domestic Product ranks seventh in the U.S.

• Ohio accounts for 3.4 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1986 1996 2006

Billions of current dollars

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of CommerceOhio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research

5

State of Ohio Real Personal Income

• Ohioans’ personal incomes expected to rise.

• Total Ohio income as a share of national income is projected to decline.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1991 1996 2001 2006 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5Ohio Real IncomePercent of U.S

Billions ($2000) Percent of U.S.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Accounts Data, Local Area Personal Income, U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration; Global Insight

6

State of Ohio Population

• Ohio’s Population has been increasing for the past decade.

• But the U.S. population has been increasing at a faster rate.

• Ohio’s share of U.S. population is expected to continue to decline.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1996 2001 2006 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ohio Population Share of U.S.

Millions Percent of U.S.

Sources: Ohio Department of DevelopmentU.S. Bureau of the Census

7



8

Population and Labor Force Continue to Grow

11.2 11.5 11.6

8.5 8.9 9.2

5.6 6.0 6.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Population Working AgePopulation

Labor Force

Millions1996 2006 2016

Sources: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Bureau of Labor Market Information.

9

Ohio’s Labor ForceParticipation Rates to Increase

Among Women

66.3 67.2 66.7

74.7 73.1 71.8

58.661.7 61.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Men Women

Percent1996 2006 2016


10

Ohio’s Labor Force Increasing at a Slower Pace than its Workforce Population

4.45.8

3.62.8

0

3

6

9

12

1996-2006 2006-2016

Percent ChangeWorking Age Population Labor Force


11

Age Distribution of Ohio’s

Labor Force is Changing

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 andOlder

Millions1996 2006 2016


12

Ohio’s Labor Force Ages 55 and Older Grows as Baby

Boomers Age

-116

104

-13

-184

217

161

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and Older

Projected Change, 2006-2016 in Thousands


13

Labor Force Growth will Continue for Workers 55

and Older

1.0 0.8

40.4

-12.0

-2.3

37.9

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1996-2006 2006-2016

16-24 25-54 55 and olderPercent Change


14

Female Share of Ohio’s Labor Force

Increasing

46.1

47.8 47.9

40

42

44

46

48

50

Percent

1996 2006 2016

Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 15



16

Employment Growth:

U.S. and Ohio• Ohio employment

growth is expected to be noticeably slower than the U.S. over the 2006-2016 period.

• This slower outlook reflects Ohio’s slow recovery from the last recession in 2001 and higher concentration of employment in manufacturing.

Percent Change

10.4

5.0

0

3

6

9

12

15

2006-2016

U.S. Ohio

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 17

Service-Providing Industries Continue to Lead

Employment Growth

1.12 1.00

4.344.74

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Goods-Producing Service-Providing

2006 2016Millions


18

Ohio Goods-Producing Employment, 2006

and 2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing

Thousands 2006 2016


19

Ohio Service-Providing Employment, 2006 and

2016

0

300

600

900

Trans. & Util. Trade Information FinancialActivities

Prof. &Business

Educ. &Health

Leisure &Hospitality

OtherServices

Government

Thousands 2006 2016


20

Comparison of U.S. and Ohio Rates of Industry

Growth, 2006-2016

-14.5 -9.0

11.4 10.6

-10.6

-17.7

10.3

5.5

9.3 9.76.9

-2.7

14.4

8.5

23.3

15.4

26.0

21.7

14.3

9.7

13.59.8

6.1

2.1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Natural

Resou

rces

Constru

ction

Manufac

turing

Wholes

ale &

Retail T

rade

Transp

ortat

ion & U

tilitie

s

Informati

on

Financia

l Acti

vities

Prof. &

Bus

iness S

ervice

Educati

on & Hea

lth Serv

Leisure

and H

ospita

lity

Other Serv

ices

Govern

ment

Projected Percent Change

U.S. Ohio

Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Bureau of Labor Market Information 21Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Job Growth in Education & Health and Professional & Business

Services Sets the Pace

-140.8-7.0

-2.4

9.4

16.0

19.8

21.5

22.0

26.1

48.5

100.8165.7

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150

Education & Health Serv

Prof. & Business Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Financial Activities

Other Services

Construction

Transportation & Utilities

Government

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Information

Natural Resources

Manufacturing

Thousands


22

Industries with Fastest Job Growth, 2006-2016

• 4 of the top 10 fastest growing industries are involved with health care. Demand for health care is increasing because of the growth of the older population.

Percent Change

56.6

56.3

46.4

34.0

33.3

31.3

30.1

28.8

27.0

74.3

0 20 40 60 80

Individual and family services

Mgmt & technical consulting service

Home health care services

Community care facilities-elderly

Activities related to real estate

Securities & contracts brokerage

Credtit intermediation

Compputer systems design

Spectator sports

Residential mental health facilities


Private Sector Industries Adding the

Most New Jobs• Health services

will dominate the job growth picture.

• In the public sector, local government, except for education and hospitals will also account for a large number of new jobs.

Job Growth, 2006-2016, in Thousands

32.2

25.2

24.3

20.9

15.6

15.3

14.5

14.1

13.8

22.8

0 10 20 30 40

Hospitals

Individual and family services

Full-service restaurnats

Home health care services

Employment services

Offices of physicians

Mgmt. of companies & enterprises

Educational services

Religious organizations

Mgmt. & tech. consulting serv.




25

Service Occupations had the Most Jobs in

2006Thousands

917.7

613.3

597.2

556.7

453.2

246.1

230.2

14.8

1,081.01,131.9

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Service

Professional & related

Office & admin support

Sales & related

Production

Mgmt., business & financial

Trans. & material moving

Construction & extraction

Installation, maint. & repair

Farming, fishing & forestry


26

Employment Growth by Major Occupational

Group• Service and

professional & related workers will grow at the fastest rate.

• The decline in manufacturing has been slowing the demand for production workers.

-11.8

0.0

1.0

2.4

2.9

3.1

4.5

6.9

12.0

12.2

-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16

Service





Office & admin. support

Sales & related

Transp. & materal moving


Production

Percent Change, 2006-2016


Service and Professional Workers will Account for Almost 270,000 New Jobs

2.9

7.1

14.6

17.0

25.3

26.2

129.8

138.3

0 25 50 75 100 125 150

Service


Office & admin. support



Sales & realted

Install., maint. & repair


Thousands of Jobs, 2006-2016


28

Occupational Job Growth in Ohio

• Health occupations will account for 27.4 percent of the net job growth.

• Service occupations, except health, will account for another 25.9 percent of job growth.

Educ., training &

library

Other

Mgmt, business &

finance


Sales

Community & social service

Office & admin

support

Service, exc. health

Computer & math

Health


29

Percent of New Jobs*

*Does not include the loss of over 70,000 production jobs.

Health and Community & Social Service Occupations Dominate the

Fastest Growing Jobs

47.9

40.8

34.0

34.0

33.6

33.2

32.1

48.1

38.9

37.9

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

Home health aides

Network systems & data communications analysts

Personal & home health aides

Computer software engineers, applications

Skin care specialists

Personal financial advisors

Substance abuse & behavioral dis. counselors

Social & human services assistants

Veterinary technologists & technicians

Medical assistants



Total Annual Job Openings0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Service


Office & admin. Support

Sales & related


Production





Thousands

Replacement

Growth

Most Job Openings are Due to Replacement

Demands

• Employers replace workers who retire, die or leave the labor force for other reasons.

42.2

35.8

21.2

13.9

12.2

4.5


6.2

31

0.4

24.9

12.2

Job Growth can be Viewed in Two

Ways• Large occupational

categories, such as cashiers, which are growing at slow or moderate rates, often provide many more job openings than small, fast-growing occupations, such as occupational therapist assistants.

• More than four out of every five job openings are expected because of net replacement needs.

Percent Change Annual Openings

Occupational therapist assistantsCashiers

31

13

109

6,600


32

Occupations with the Most Job Openings

• An occupation with large employment will usually have many job openings.

• Even occupations with limited employment growth may have high demand because of replacement needs.

6.6

5.9

4.1

4.0

3.4

2.7

2.5

2.4

4.4

6.4

0 2 4 6 8

Cashiers

Waiters & waitresses

Retail salespersons

Registered Nurses

Laborers, freight, stock, mat. movers, hand

Customer service representatives

Comb. food prep. & serv., inc. fast food

Office clerks, general

Janitors & cleaners

Home health aides

Annual Job Openings, 2006-2016

Thousands


Educational Attainment of Ohio Occupational Employment, 2006


34

High School

High School/ Some College

High School/Some College/College

Some College/ College

College

Educational Attainment of Projected Employment

Change, 2006-2016


35

High School

High School/Some College

High School/ Some College/ College

Some College/ College

College

Education will Play a Bigger Role in the Ohio

Workplace

2.4

2.6

4.8

10.8

13.3

0 3 6 9 12 15

High School

High School/Some College

High School/SomeCollege/College

Some College/College

College



36

Education Pays … U.S. Data

Less than a high-school diploma

High-school diploma

Some college, no degree

Associate degree

Bachelor’s degree

Master’s degree

Unemployment Rate in 2007 Median Weekly Earnings in 2007

Note: Year-round full-time workers 25 years and older Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2.1

2.6

3.3

4.2

4.7

7.6 $409

$583

$653

$699

$937

$1,129

$1,370Professional degree

Doctoral degree

1.1

1.6 $1,421

37


For further information contact:Lew Horner Sandy NewmanWorkforce Research Chief Projections Coordinator(614) 466-9824 (614) 644-0632

Ohio Department of Job and Family Serviceshttp://jfs.ohio.gov/Office of Workforce Developmenthttp://jfs.ohio.gov/workforce/Bureau of Labor Market Informationhttp://ohiolmi.com/

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