2014 06 Realtors Confidence Index 2014-07-22

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    QGIO^FQ] MFH@DNGHMG DHNGZQgpfrt fh tjg Euhg 1;9> ]urvgy

    Mfhnumtgn Euoy 9-9>, 1;9>

    HI^DFHIO I]]FMDI^DFH F@ QGIO^FQ]

    Qgsgirmj Ngpirtlght

    Oiwrghmg Tuh, ]ghdfr Pdmg [rgsdnght ihn Mjdg` Gmfhfldst

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    ^iaog f` Mfhtghts

    ]WLLIQT .................................................................................................................................................. 9

    QGIO^FQ] Mfh`dnghmg Gisgs dh Euhg ............................................................................................... 1

    Auygr ^ri``dm Dhngx Nrfppgn dh Euhg ....................................................................................................... =

    [rfpgrtdgs ^ypdmiooy ]fon Rdtjdh >> Niys dh Euhg ................................................................................... >

    Jflg [rdmgs ]tdoo Arfinoy Qdsdhb ............................................................................................................. 7

    QGIO^FQ] Gxpgmt [rdmgs tf Dhmrgisg Lfngstoy dh tjg Hgxt 91 Lfhtjs ............................................ 2

    DD. Auygr ihn ]googr Mjirimtgrdstdms .............................................................................................................. :

    ]iogs tf @drst ^dlg Auygrs5 1: [grmght f` ]iogs ...................................................................................... :

    Misj ]iogs5 =1 [grmght f` ]iogs ............................................................................................................... 4

    @gwgr @drst tdlg Jflg Auygrs [iydhb Ofw Nfwh [iylght ................................................................. 9;

    ]iogs `fr Dhvgstlght [urpfsgs5 90 [grmght f` ]iogs ............................................................................... 99

    ]gmfhn-jflg Auygrs ihn Qgofmitdfh ]iogs5 ]tdoo Rgic ......................................................................... 91

    Ndstrgssgn ]iogs5 99 [grmght f` ]iogs ...................................................................................................... 9=

    Dhtgrhitdfhio ^rihsimtdfhs5 Iafut 1 [grmght f` Qgsdnghtdio Lircgt ....................................................... 9>

    Qdsdhb Qghts `fr Qgsdnghtdio [rfpgrtdgs .................................................................................................. 97

    DDD. Murrght Dssugs ........................................................................................................................................ 92

    Mfllghts ]uppodgn ay QGIO^FQ] Qgspfhndhb tf tjg Euhg 1;9> ]urvgy ....................................... 92

    Qgisfhs @fr Hft Mofsdhb I ]iog ............................................................................................................ 9:

    ^dbjt Mrgndt Mfhndtdfhs ihn ]ofw Oghndhb [rfmgss ............................................................................... 94

    DP. Mfllghtirdgs ay HIQ Qgsgirmj ......................................................................................................... 1;

    Jfusdhb Lircgt @frgmist ........................................................................................................................ 1;

    @fft ^ri``dm Nd``usdfh DhngxLfngst Gisdhb dh Euhg........................................................................... 1=

    Misj ]iogs5 Qgbdfhio Mflpirdsfhs......................................................................................................... 1>

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    [ibg | 9

    ]WLLIQTEgn ]ldtj ihn Biy Mfrfritfh

    ^jgQGIO^FQ] Mfh`dnghmg Dhngx(QMD) Qgpfrt prfvdngs lfhtjoy dh`frlitdfh iafutlircgt mfhndtdfhs ihn gxpgmtitdfhs, auygr/sgoogr tri``dm, prdmg trghns, auygr prf`dogs, ihn dssugs

    i``gmtdhb rgio gstitg aisgn fh niti mfoogmtgn dh i lfhtjoy survgy f` QGIO^FQ]. ^jg murrghtrgpfrt ds aisgn fh tjg rgspfhsgs f` =,292 QGIO^FQ] iafut tjgdr trihsimtdfhs dh Euhg1;9>9. ^jg survgy wis mfhnumtgn nurdhb Euoy 9-9>, 1;9>. Yugstdfhs iafut tjg mjirimtgrdstdms f`tjg auygr ihn tjg siog irg aisgn fh tjg QGIO^FQ] oist trihsimtdfh `fr tjg lfhtj (Euhg),wjdmj iotfbgtjgr irg vdgwgn tf ag rgprgsghtitdvg f` tjg siogs `fr tjg lfhtj. Ioo rgio gstitg dsofmio5 mfhndtdfhs dh spgmd`dm lircgts liy viry `rfl tjg fvgrioo hitdfhio trghns prgsghtgn dh tjdsrgpfrt.

    ^jg Euhg 1;9> survgy f` QGIO^FQ] dhndmitgs i ngmodhg dh mfh`dnghmg imrfss iooprfpgrty lircgts iafut murrght mfhndtdfhs ihn tjg futoffc `fr tjg hgxt 0 lfhtjs. ^dbjt suppoyjis mfhstridhgn imtdvdty dh lihy irgis iotjfubj dhvghtfry wis rgpfrtgn tf jivg dhmrgisgn dh

    sflg irgis sumj is dh MI, @O, ihn W^. QGIO^FQ] mfhtdhugn tf rgpfrt tjit tjg oghndhbghvdrfhlght rglidhs i mjiooghbg gvgh tf mrgndtwfrtjy afrrfwgrs. ^jg rgmght prdmg rgmfvgryildn tjg sofw pimg f` dhmflg ihn efa brfwtj jis ling dt lfrg nd``dmuot `fr sflg auygrs tfimmgss lfrtbibg `dhihmdhb. Bdvgh tjg nglihn-suppoy dlaioihmg, jflg prdmgs bghgriooymfhtdhugn tf dhmrgisg ihn prfpgrtdgs wgrg fh tjg lircgt `fr `gwgr niys `fr tjg sdxtj stridbjtlfhtj. Ndstrgssgn siogs mfhtdhugn tf immfuht `fr i slioogr pfrtdfh f` tjg lircgt. QGIO^FQ]rgpfrtgn tjit tjg gxpdritdfh dh Ngmglagr 1;9= f` tjg tix argic fh ngat `frbdvgh irdsdhb `rfl isjfrt siog jis jgon aimc pftghtdio sgoogrs `rfl tjg lircgt. Dh sflg lircgts, tjg mfst f` fatidhdhb`offn dhsurihmg mfhtdhugn tf ag rgpfrtgn is jivdhb i hgbitdvg dlpimt fh pftghtdio siogs.

    Euhg 1;9> QGIO^FQ] Mfh`dnghmg Dhngx ]urvgy Jdbjodbjts

    Murrght

    Lfhtj

    [rgvdfus

    Lfhtj

    I Tgir Ibf

    QMDMurrght Mfhndtdfhs5 ]dhbog @ildoy ]iogs 01 0> 29

    QMD- 0 Lfhtj Futoffc5 ]dhbog @ildoy ]iogs 0= 00 21

    QMDAuygr ^ri``dm Dhngx 7: 0; 04

    QMD-]googr ^ri``dm Dhngx >> >= >0

    @drst-tdlg Auygrs, is [grmght f` ]iogs 1: 12 14

    Misj ]iogs, is [grmght f` ]iogs =1 =1 =9

    ]iogs tf Dhvgstfrs, is [grmght f` ]iogs 90 90 92

    Ndstrgssgn ]iogs, is [grmght f` ]iogs 99 99 97

    Lgndih Niys fh Lircgt >> >2 =2

    Gxpgmtgn prdmg brfwtj dh hgxt 91 lfhtjs =.0 >.; >.4

    9 ^jg hulagr f` rgspfhsgs tf i spgmd`dm qugstdfh mih ag ogss agmiusg tjg qugstdfh ds hft ippodmiaog tf tjgrgspfhnght fr agmiusg f` hfh-rgspfhsg. ^jg survgy wis sght tf i rihnfl silpog f` iafut 7;,;;; QGIO^FQ].^f ghmfuribg survgy pirtdmdpitdfh, gdbjt QGIO^FQ] irg sgogmtgn it rihnfl gimj lfhtj tf rgmgdvg i bd`t mirn.

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    [ibg | 1

    D. Lircgt Mfhndtdfhs

    QGIO^FQ] Mfh`dnghmg Gisgs dh Euhg

    Mfh`dnghmg iafut murrght lircgt mfhndtdfhs gisgn imrfss ioo lircgts dh Euhg 1;9>

    mflpirgn tf Liy . Iotjfubj mfh`dnghmg ds stdoo bghgriooy strfhb, tjgQGIO^FQ]Mfh`dnghmg Dhngx - Murrght Mfhndtdfhs`fr sdhbog `ildoy siogs ngmodhgn tf 01 (0> dh Liy) . jglircgts `fr tfwhjfusgs ihn mfhnfldhduls mfhtdhugn tf ag vdgwgn is bghgriooy wgic. ^jgdhngxgs `fr tfwhjfusgs/nupogxgs sodbjtoy nrfppgn tf >> (>0 dh Liy), wjdog tjg dhngx `frmfhnfldhduls iosf sodbjtoy goo tf =4 (>9 dh Liy). Ih dhngx iafvg 7; dhndmitgs tjit lfrg tjihjio` f` QGIO^FQ rgspfhnghts vdgwgn jfusdhb mfhndtdfhs is strfhb.

    1

    Ofmio mfhndtdfhs viry, aut QGIO^FQ] bghgriooy rgpfrtgn tjit ofw dhvghtfry, ioagdtdlprfvdhb, ds mfhstridhdhb siogs. ^dbjtgr lfrtbibg budngodhgs, gspgmdiooy rgoitdhb tf mrgndt smfrgs,wgrg rgpfrtgn tf ag ndsquiod`ydhb afrrfwgrs , ihn tjg uhngrwrdtdhb ihn dhmflg vgrd`dmitdfhprfmgss mfhtdhugn tf ag rgpfrtgn is tff ofhb. ^jg `ist pimg f` tjg prdmg rgmfvgry ildn sofw

    dhmflg ihn efa brfwtj jis iosf prdmgn fut pftghtdio jflg auygrs.

    Mfh`dnghmg iafut tjg futoffc `fr tjg hgxt sdx lfhtjs iosf ndppgn imrfss ioo lircgts dhEuhg mflpirgn tf Liy. ^jg sdx-lfhtj Futoffc Dhngx `fr sdhbog `ildoy jflgs `goo tf 0= (00 dhLiy), tjg dhngx `fr tfwhjfusgs gnbgn nfwh tf >0 (>: dh Liy ), ihn tjg dhngx `fr mfhnfldhdulsnrfppgn tf >9 (>= dh Liy). QGIO^FQ] mfllghtgn fh tjg nd``dmuoty f` fatidhdhb @JI`dhihmdhb `fr mfhnfldhduls, wjdmj irg typdmiooy tjg stirtgr jflgs `fr `drst-tdlg auygrs.

    1 Ih dhngx f` 7; ngodhgitgs lfngritg mfhndtdfhs ihn dhndmitgs i aioihmg f` rgspfhnghts jivdhbwgic(dhngx;

    0;

    :;

    1;;:;9

    1;;:;7

    1;;:;4

    1;;4;9

    1;;4;7

    1;;4;4

    1;9;;9

    1;9;;7

    1;9;;4

    1;99;9

    1;99;7

    1;99;4

    1;91;9

    1;91;7

    1;91;4

    1;9=;9

    1;9=;7

    1;9=;4

    1;9>;9

    1;9>;7

    QGIO FQ] Mfh`dnghmg Dhngx - Murrght Mfhndtdfhs--

    is f` Euhg 1;9> QMD ]urvgy

    (7;

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    [ibg | =

    Auygr ^ri``dm Dhngx Nrfppgn dh Euhg

    ^jg Auygr ^ri``dm Dhngx gisgn dh Euhg tf 7: (0; dh Liy). Lgihwjdog, iotjfubjdhvghtfry ds dlprfvdhb, suppoy ds stdoo arfinoy tdbjt5 tjg ]googr ^ri``dm Dhngx ds stdoo agofw 7; ihngssghtdiooy stiygn `oit it >>(>= dh Liy)=. Ih dhngx iafvg 7; dhndmitgs tjit lfrg tjih jio` f`QGIO^FQ] vdgw tri``dm mfhndtdfhs is strfhb.

    QGIO^FQ] rgpfrtgn sflg uptdmc dh dhvghtfry (MI, @O, FJ, JD, W^), aut nglihn

    rglidhgn tdbjt dh lihy irgis. ]uppoy wis rgpfrtgn is hft sdbhd`dmihtoy dhmrgisgn `fr i virdgty f`rgisfhs5 uhmgrtidhty tjit i pftghtdio sgoogr ldbjt hft `dhn ih i``frniaog rgpoimglght jflg3 tjgjflg wis rgmghtoy rg`dhihmgn3 tjg sgoogr ds stdoo widtdhb `fr `urtjgr prdmg dhmrgisg gdtjgr tfdhmrgisg jds gqudty bidh fr tf lfvg fut f` hgbitdvg gqudty. ^jgrg wgrg rgpfrts f` strfhb dhtgrgstay aiay afflgrs tf nfwhsdzg, aut tjgy jivg aggh jgon f`` ay tfubj oghndhb stihnirns ihn tjgprfspgmt f` hft `dhndhb ih i``frniaog jflg.

    HIQ iosf trimcs `fft tri``dm usdhb ]ghtrdofmc, OOM niti. Ofmcafx