2013 - 2019 aberdeenshire school roll forecasts
DESCRIPTION
Official data on the 2013 - 2019 Aberdeenshire school roll forecasts.TRANSCRIPT
Education, Learning & Leisure
EDUCATION, LEARNING & LEISURE COMMITTEE – 29 MAY 2014
2013 SCHOOL ROLL FORECASTS
1 Recommendations:
The Committee is recommended to:-
1.1 Acknowledge the contents of this report;
1.2 Agree to further reports on detailed implications being broughtback to Committee as and when necessary; and
1.3 Agree to this report being circulated to Area Committees for theircomments.
2 Discussion
2.1 Purpose of Report
This report provides information requested by the Education, Learning andLeisure Committee regarding Aberdeenshire Council’s school roll forecasts,the method used to obtain these forecasts, comments on their accuracy andprovides analysis of the data.
2.2 Background
This report updates the report on School Roll Forecasts which was presentedto the Education, Learning and Leisure Committee in August 2013, which wasbased on the 2012 forecasts.
The forecasts are set out within the tables and graphs in Appendices 1-7 ofthis report.
2.3 Forecasting method
2.3.1 Summary
School roll forecasts take as their starting point the current school populationand then attempt to identify how that population may change over time. Indoing so they take into account demographic factors such as change in thebirth rate and changes to the school roll arising from pupil yield from newhousing. They also build in information about school choices made as aresult of placing requests submitted by parents/carers to enrol their children ina school other than the one they are zoned for, based on their address. Insecondary schools staying-on rates for pupils entering 5th and 6th year arecalculated.
Finally, totals are compared to the overall population projections, produced byNational Records of Scotland, for these age groups in Aberdeenshire.
Item: 5Page: 1
2.3.2 Information sources
The main sources of information used in preparing the forecasts are:
the Community Health Index which gives numbers of all children 5 yearsand under in the various primary catchment areas. This information isderived from GP lists;
the results of the School Pupil Census undertaken in the third week ofSeptember each year;
data about the number of pupils admitted to each school as a result ofplacing requests, i.e. pupils who do not attend the school of the catchmentarea they live in;
staying-on rates for pupils who remain at school beyond the statutoryschool leaving age;
the Housing Land Audit and the Local Development Plan.
2.3.3 Demographic and other factors affecting the forecasts
The forecast figures are adjusted to take account of demographic dataproduced every two years by National Records of Scotland (NRS). This datainclude assumptions about natural change and net migration and are used inthe forecasting process to derive control totals for the Primary 1 (P1) toPrimary 7 (P7) and Secondary 1 (S1) to Secondary 4 (S4) populations whichallows the forecasts to take account of expected demographic changes.
Roll totals are also adjusted to take into account the number of pupils whoattend special or private schools, as well as those who live in a different localauthority to the one in which they attend school.
The two inputs in primary school forecasts which are the most difficult toassess are the initial P1 entry and the number of pupils which is likely to enterschools as the result of new house build. For P1 entry, data from the centralhealth register is used. This data is derived from GP registrations and is thebest source of population data for this age group at small area level. It does,however, derive from a particular point in time and can be subject to changeover the time period it is needed for. Forecasts for small primary schools canbe strongly influenced by movements of one or two families into or out of thecatchment area.
Projected new house build figures too can be problematic. The figures thisyear are taken largely from the 2013 Housing Land Audit, augmented byspecialist knowledge where necessary, but developers’ intentions can changeas the economic position of the house building industry changes. The presenteconomic climate in particular makes it more likely that projected housecompletions will differ from year to year.
Secondary school forecasts, too, are affected by new house build figures.However, another input which can vary according to economic circumstances
Item: 5Page: 2
is the staying-on rate for fifth and sixth years. This can be affected by generaleconomic circumstances, particularly the youth unemployment rate, and againcan vary from year to year.
2.3.4 Capacities and working capacities
The forecasts in Appendices 4 and 5 provides data on how the forecast rollrelates to the capacity of the school, by expressing the former as apercentage of the latter. Each school has a capacity figure determinedaccording to Scottish Government guidance which defines capacity in termsof “fixed plus connected temporary” accommodation. It therefore does notinclude “non-fixed” temporary accommodation, which can represent animportant component of the school’s “working capacity”. To provide a fullpicture of how the forecasts impact on school capacity, Appendices 4 and 5contain information on both “official” capacity and “working” capacity.
2.3.5 Level of accuracy
Comparing the 2012 forecast to the 2013 school roll
The 2012 school roll forecasts for 2013 achieved a good level of accuracy andwere particularly effective in forecasting the total number of pupils at localauthority level.
Aberdeenshire
The 2012 forecast for the total number of primary pupils in Aberdeenshire in2013 was 20,133 and the actual school roll was 19,924. This means that theforecast for primary pupils was within 1% of the actual roll.
The 2012 forecast for the total number of secondary pupils in Aberdeenshirein 2013 was 14,685 and the actual school roll was 14,313. This means thatthe forecast for secondary pupils was within 2.6% of the actual roll.
Primary Schools
The accuracy of individual school roll forecasts is more variable. However,almost 50% of the primary school roll forecasts were within 5% of the actualschool roll and 74% of forecasts were within 10%.
In terms of actual pupil numbers, 33% of the forecasts were correct to within 2pupils and 56% of the forecasts were correct to within 5 pupils.
In general, it is easier to produce accurate forecasts for large schools than forsmall ones. Any, or all, of the factors mentioned above may vary in thecourse of a year and the smaller the school the more significant the variationswill be.
The effect of size on the school roll forecast is seen in the fact that whereschool capacity is 47 or less, 66% of forecasts were within 10% of the actualschool roll. In schools with capacity of 230 or more, 89% of forecasts werewithin 10% of the actual school roll. (These capacity figures refer to thecapacities of schools in 2012.)
Item: 5Page: 3
Forecasts for small schools should be treated with some caution and areprobably more useful in indicating trends than in providing precise numbers.
Secondary Schools
Forecasts for 11 (65%) of the 17 academies were within 3% of the actualschool roll and all were within 7% of it.
Longer term accuracy
The table below compares the projection for 2013 of the school roll forecastsfrom 2008–2012 to the actual school roll figures in 2013.
Whilst the forecasts necessarily differ from year to year, reflecting the differentinformation available at each particular time, there has been only oneoccasion over the last five years when the forecast for 2013 was inaccurateby more than 5%.
Pupil Census Pupil Forecast for 2013 from:
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Primary 19,924 20,133 20,092 19,402 18,974 18,337
Secondary 14,313 14,685 14,193 14,340 14,105 14,023
Pupil Census Difference of forecast from Pupil Census:
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Primary 19,924 1.0% 0.8% -2.6% -4.8% -8.0%
Secondary 14,313 2.6% -0.8% 0.2% -1.5% -2.0%
2.4 Analysis
2.4.1 Aberdeenshire
The forecast between 2013 and 2019 for primaries indicate an increase of9.9%, and for academies, a 6.5% increase. Overall, (primary and secondarytogether), an increase of 2,909 (8.5%) is forecast over the next six years.
This is slightly below the trends noted in the 2012 based forecasts, whichindicated a 14.2% increase in primary roll to 2018 (compared with 12.3% forthe 2013 based forecast) and an increase of 5.0% in the secondary roll to2018 (compared with +4.1% for the 2013 based forecast).
As has been highlighted in previous reports, within the overall forecast figuresthere are a number of schools where there are notable levels of undercapacity as well as over capacity. The 2013 actual roll figures illustrate thiswith 22 Primary schools (0 Secondary schools) currently less than 50%capacity, and 22 Primary schools (5 Secondary schools) over 100% capacity.
Within the Primary school sector the forecast shows a fairly even distributionof pupil numbers across the various school stages from 2013 to 2019. Thelargest P1 intake is forecast for August 2014 (3,250), with subsequent P1intakes forecast to be consistently around the 3,000-3,100 children mark.
Item: 5Page: 4
For the Secondary school sector the S1 intake remains at around 2,700 –2,800 until the increase in the primary intake starts to work its way through thesystem, resulting in S1 intakes of around 2,900 from 2018 on.
2.4.2 Analysis by Area and Cluster (See appendices 3-5)
Analysis by administrative area reveals considerable variation across theareas. Two areas (Garioch and Kincardine & Mearns) are forecast to havesignificant increases in roll in both primary and secondary sectors by 2019.The primary sector in Buchan and Formartine areas are forecast to increase(by 12.2% and 7.3% respectively), whilst their secondary sectors are forecastto remain broadly stable. In Marr and Banff & Buchan, the primary roll isforecast to fall marginally by 2019, with the secondary sector in the latter alsoforecast to fall by just under 6%. A small increase in the secondary roll isforecast in Marr.
The Cluster level changes are set out in detail in Appendix 3.
These forecasts have significant implications for the management anddevelopment of the EL&L estate in a number of areas and clusters. Furtherdetail on this is included in paragraph 2.4.3
2.4.3 Analysis by School and implications for management and development of theEL&L Estate (See appendices 6 & 7)
All schools which are between 85% and 99% capacity are being regularlymonitored through the work of the Support Services Management Team.Solutions include reconfiguration of the building to provide interim capacitymeasures, particularly when the rise in pupil numbers is not a permanent one.
We do not have accurate working capacities for secondary schoolaccommodation, however this will be ascertained by the ongoing work of thelearning estate review.
Of the schools over 100% of working capacity the following measures arebeing taken:
Aboyne Primary currently has plans to extend and refurbish areas ofthe school.
Alford Primary and Drumoak School have new build schools plannedwhich will greatly increase the capacity.
Dunnottar School will be part of a future re-zoning exercise to beproposed to the Stonehaven area.
Elrick School currently has a capped roll and is having a classroomreconfigured in summer 2014. Elrick School will also benefit from therezoning exercise in Westhill.
The working capacity needs to be established for Aboyne and BanchoryAcademies. Alford and Mearns have a greater capacity in the new buildaccommodation as does Kemnay Academy through the extension andrefurbishment.
Item: 5Page: 5
Re-zoning is currently taking place in Fraserburgh and Peterhead and will befollowed by re-zoning in all other networks. The completed re-zoning willsupport re-configuring with available capacities.
2.5 The Head of Finance and the Monitoring Officer with Business Services, andHead of Human Resources & Organisational Development, have beenconsulted and their comments have been incorporated into the report.
3 Equalities, Staffing and Financial Implications
3.1 An equality impact assessment is not required because the report is to informcommittee on an analysis of data and there will be no differential impact, as aresult of the report, on people with protected characteristics.
3.2 This report indicates that there is likely to be an increase in overall pupil rollsover the next six years across Aberdeenshire. However, this pattern is notuniform with some areas expected to experience significantly higher increasesthan others, and in a few areas the forecast is for a fall in pupil numbers.Nevertheless, the overall forecast increase in school rolls means that it islikely that there will be significant financial implications arising from changes inthe school rolls over the coming years, both in terms of additionalaccommodation requirements in areas where schools are expected to be overcapacity, and the cost of additional teachers and other associated revenuecosts. This will be taken into account when preparing budgets for future years.
Human Resources will continue to have an important role in supporting theService in terms of workforce planning and the management of recruitment.
Full details of the forecasts for the Primary sector, the Secondary sector and for bothcombined are provided in the Appendices as listed below:Appendix 1: School roll forecasts 2013 – Primary schoolsAppendix 2: School roll forecasts 2013 – Secondary schoolsAppendix 3: School roll forecasts 2013 – ClustersAppendix 4: School roll forecasts 2013 – Clusters, showing all schools andcapacitiesAppendix 5: School roll forecasts 2013 – Areas, showing all schools and capacitiesAppendix 6: School roll forecasts 2013 – Capacities summaryAppendix 7: School roll forecasts 2013 – Working capacities summary
Maria WalkerDirector of Education, Learning andLeisure
Report prepared by: Nicol Mellis, EL&L, Analysis & Research OfficerGordon Lennon, QIOMaxine Booth, QIO
08/05/2014
Item: 5Page: 6
Ap
pe
nd
ix1
.
SC
HO
OL
RO
LL
FO
RE
CA
ST
S2
01
3-
PR
IMA
RY
SC
HO
OL
S
Sta
ge
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Ch
an
ge
fro
m2
01
3
to2
01
9
%
Ch
an
ge
P1
2,6
58
2,6
54
2,7
73
2,6
92
2,8
27
2,8
36
3,0
02
3,2
50
2,9
94
3,0
14
3,0
75
3,1
33
3,1
81
17
96
.0%
P2
2,5
47
2,6
84
2,6
87
2,8
08
2,7
15
2,8
67
2,9
02
3,0
59
3,2
98
3,0
24
3,0
25
3,0
93
3,1
45
24
38
.4%
P3
2,6
69
2,5
46
2,6
98
2,6
94
2,7
90
2,7
35
2,9
16
2,9
60
3,1
10
3,3
21
3,0
35
3,0
44
3,1
06
19
06
.5%
P4
2,8
70
2,6
96
2,5
76
2,7
06
2,7
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2,7
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2,7
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2,9
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3,1
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3,3
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0.3
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62
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72
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32
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42
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73
,00
42
,99
83
,10
53
,28
85
35
19
.4%
P7
2,8
28
2,8
80
2,8
00
2,8
70
2,7
23
2,6
24
2,7
45
2,7
93
2,9
14
2,8
46
2,9
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2,9
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96
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11
2.8
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ota
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oll
19
,22
21
9,0
59
19
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71
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19
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9,3
23
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0,7
15
21
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NB
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20
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22
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0
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0
20
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20
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20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Pri
mary
Sch
oo
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oll
s
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+8.4
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+6.5
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+10.3
%
+6.8
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+19.4
%
+12.8
%
0%
5%
10
%
15
%
20
%
25
%
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
P6
P7
%C
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ary
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Item: 5Page: 7
Ap
pe
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ix2
.
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RO
LL
FO
RE
CA
ST
S2013
-S
EC
ON
DA
RY
SC
HO
OL
S
Sta
ge
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Ch
an
ge
fro
m2013
to2019
%
Ch
an
ge
S1
2,8
63
2,7
43
2,8
29
2,7
22
2,7
29
2,6
04
2,5
17
2,7
86
2,7
88
2,8
46
2,7
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2,9
18
2,8
90
373
14.8
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22,9
03
2,8
66
2,7
56
2,8
51
2,7
17
2,7
56
2,6
50
2,6
21
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69
2,8
13
2,8
62
2,8
11
2,9
16
266
10.0
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65
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18
2,8
77
2,7
70
2,8
62
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55
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57
2,7
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3,0
23
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2,8
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2,8
40
2,7
32
2,9
08
2,8
51
2,8
81
158
5.8
%S
52,3
63
2,1
56
2,3
43
2,2
61
2,2
62
2,2
07
2,2
77
2,1
88
2,3
14
2,2
83
2,1
95
2,3
36
2,2
89
12
0.5
%S
61,3
44
1,3
33
1,3
40
1,4
40
1,4
10
1,3
92
1,3
66
1,4
10
1,3
62
1,4
35
1,4
22
1,3
70
1,4
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6.6
%T
ota
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oll
15,6
32
15,0
39
15,0
44
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14,7
13
14,5
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14,3
13
14,6
51
14,8
79
15,0
01
15,0
07
15,1
68
15,2
45
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%
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13,5
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14,0
00
14,5
00
15,0
00
15,5
00
16,0
00
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Se
co
nd
ary
Sc
ho
olR
oll
s
+14.8
%
+10.%
+1.2
%
+5.8
%
+.5
%
+6.6
%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
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ha
ng
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co
nd
ary
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oll
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casts
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econdary
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Item: 5Page: 8
Ap
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ma
rie
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ma
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talc
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62
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21
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14
Item: 5Page: 9
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3C
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Ta
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21
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14
Item: 5Page: 10
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Sch
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23
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82
6E
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23
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Pri
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55
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Ca
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0
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2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
To
talP
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arie
sC
apa
city
-P
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ary
0
500
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2014
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2016
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Alford
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01
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Item: 5Page: 13
BA
NC
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20
16
20
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20
13
20
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15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Ba
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81
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Ba
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Item: 5Page: 14
BA
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45
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pa
city
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0
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2014
2015
2016
2017
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2019
To
talP
rim
arie
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apa
city
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rim
ary
0
500
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2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Ba
nff
Aca
de
my
Ca
pa
city
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01
4
Item: 5Page: 15
EL
LO
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To
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2016
2017
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Ello
nA
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pa
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Item: 5Page: 16
FR
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pa
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2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fra
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city
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Item: 5Page: 17
HU
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pa
city
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0
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00
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00
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2014
2015
2016
2017
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2019
Th
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4B
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Item: 5Page: 18
INV
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27
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Item: 5Page: 20
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Me
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Item: 5Page: 21
ME
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01
4
Item: 5Page: 22
MIN
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2014
2015
2016
2017
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2019
Min
tlaw
Aca
de
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pa
city
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4
Item: 5Page: 23
PE
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Pe
terh
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dem
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Item: 5Page: 24
PO
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Po
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sch
oo
l2
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01
4
Item: 5Page: 25
ST
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Item: 5Page: 26
TU
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Item: 5Page: 27
WE
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Item: 5Page: 28
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Item: 5Page: 29
Ap
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Ra
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57
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23
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Hig
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Pro
jectio
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pa
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Pro
jectio
ns
Ca
pa
citi
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(05
)2
01
3S
ch
oo
lRo
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sts
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nd
ice
sA
pp
5A
llS
ch
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1/0
5/2
01
4
Item: 5Page: 30
SC
HO
OL
RO
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FO
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ST
S2
01
3-
BU
CH
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RIE
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No
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16
20
17
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19
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SC
HO
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Ca
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Pro
jectio
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Pro
jectio
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Ca
pa
citi
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(05
)2
01
3S
ch
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ca
sts
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nd
ice
sA
pp
5A
llS
ch
oo
ls2
1/0
5/2
01
4
Item: 5Page: 31
SC
HO
OL
RO
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FO
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CA
ST
S2
01
3-
FO
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11
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19
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Pro
jectio
ns
Ca
pa
citi
es
Pro
jectio
ns
Ca
pa
citi
es
(05
)2
01
3S
ch
oo
lRo
llF
ore
ca
sts
-Ap
pe
nd
ice
sA
pp
5A
llS
ch
oo
ls2
1/0
5/2
01
4
Item: 5Page: 32
SC
HO
OL
RO
LL
FO
RE
CA
ST
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ch
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1/0
5/2
01
4
Item: 5Page: 33
SC
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ch
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pp
5A
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1/0
5/2
01
4
Item: 5Page: 34
SC
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01
3-
MA
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2013
SchoolR
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Fore
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-Appendic
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App
6C
apacitie
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mary
21/0
5/2
014
Item: 5Page: 36
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2013
SchoolR
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Fore
casts
-Appendic
es
App
6C
apacitie
sS
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mary
21/0
5/2
014
Item: 5Page: 37
Pri
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SchoolR
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Fore
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-Appendic
es
App
6C
apacitie
sS
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mary
21/0
5/2
014
Item: 5Page: 38
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Westh
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2013
SchoolR
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Fore
casts
-Appendic
es
App
6C
apacitie
sS
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mary
21/0
5/2
014
Item: 5Page: 39
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Fore
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App
6C
apacitie
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mary
21/0
5/2
014
Item: 5Page: 40
Pri
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2013
SchoolR
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Fore
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-Appendic
es
App
6C
apacitie
sS
um
mary
21/0
5/2
014
Item: 5Page: 41
Ap
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21
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14
Item: 5Page: 42
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21
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14
Item: 5Page: 43
Pri
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21
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14
Item: 5Page: 44
Pri
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14
Item: 5Page: 45
