Open Source Intelligence (OSINT):

Defense Overview

26 August 2009 Version 3.1

STAFF BRIEF (18 Slides)

As Created by Robert Steele

Defense Intelligence Old & NewCold War-Service-Centric• Mission is Big War Only• Limited Hard Targets• Conventional Forces• DoD Rules & Runs Alone• Service-Centric• Intelligence Marginalized• Comms Internal, Secret• Unconstrained Funding• Acquisition Inept & Wasteful• Unilateral Militarism

New War-Mission Centric• Mission is War in All Its Forms• Everything is a “Target”• Unconventional Forces• Whole of Government Matters• Mission Centric• Intelligence Matters More• Comms Must be Universal• Government Bankrupt for Now• Acquisition Must Shine• Multinational Multifunctional

HU

MIN

T

SIGIN

T

GEO

-IMIN

T

MASIN

T

IO

OSIN

T Discipline

OSINT Support (Producers)

OSINT Service (Consumers)

Whole of Government Waging Peace & CommerceIncludes Decision-Support to All AO’s & Congress

Global Law Enforcement & Regulation

Global Operations Other Than War (OOTW)

Global War Both General & In the Shadows

Agriculture, Diplom

acy, Economy,

Energy, Health, Society, W

ater

Family, H

ealth, Justice, Imm

igration

Stabilization & Reconstruction, H

umanitarian

Assistance, Disaster Relief, Sm

all Wars

All Information in All Languages All the

Time All H

umans, All M

inds, All the Time

Shared Raw Information in NRT

M4IS2Hub

Direct Support TO OSINT Discipline

OSINT Provides Greatest Satisfaction of EEI at Lowest CostUSG Lacks A Central Repository for All-Source InformationWhat We CAN Afford is a Central Repository for All OSINT

TransformationInnovationSweetspot

MASINT

IMINTSIGINTSTATE

HUMINT*

OSINT

0%

50%

50%Less Costly

More Satisfying

Do Not Exist

* CIA HUMINT Only. Source : CIA Collection Requirements & Evaluation Staff, 1996

Global Information Grid Meets RealityUniverse of Information

Neighborhood GranularitySecret Discovery

$65B/Yr for 4% “At Best”

Deep Web(English)

What Search “Finds”(75+ Different Engines)

(Includes Mis-Information)Source of the Whole: Steve Arnold, CEO Arnold ITSource 4% “at best”: General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret)

Where Did We Go Wrong? How Do We Leap Ahead NOW?

Foreign Language33 core, 183 relevant

English

HUMAN to HUMANMACHINE SPEED

English

Foreign Language33 core, 183 relevant

Digital Analog Oral/Historical Digital Analog Oral/Historical

UN/NGO

CIA/DO

FB

IS

NGA NRO

NSA

State

M4IS2

TS/SCI

Status Quo Achievable NOW

M4IS2: Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing & Sense-Making

State Targets Lots of Assets

Not suitable for redirection

Organizational Targets Very Few Assets

Individual Targets Virtually No Assets

Dr. Cambone got it right:Universal coverage;

Neighborhood granularity

$65 Billion a YearTS/SCI Tubes

$600 Million a YearVery Badly Managed

Raw Available InformationBillions with Access to InternetBillions with Cell PhonesTotality of Human Intelligence

Intelligence Spending as Percent of Program 50

OSINT $

Sucking Chest Wound

TIME

#

DIOSC

Multinational Decision-Support

Centre (MDSC)

US IC USGOne-Way BIG PIPENRT Bridge to SIPR

Raw Open Source InOSINT on Demand Out

Raw Open Source InOSINT on Demand Out

UN/NGO

Two-Way Reachback

Military Hub

Host Academia

Host Commercial

Host Civil Society

Govt

LEA

Media

NGO

1

2

3

Future Far

Future Near

History &Current

Interests

NowStrategic, Operational, Tactical

Multinational & Inter-Tribal Information Sharing & Sense-Making

OperationalPartial Sharing+ Inter-Tribal National+ Regional Multinational--

Strategic-Operational

Strategic

Strategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost

Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost

Help Desk (Shared) Private Answers NOW 30% Need, 20% Cost

Recurring MonitoringAll Topics Big & Small40% Need, 10% Cost

Levels of Intelligence Investment

Herring Triangle Jan Herring, NIO/S&T 1970’sCompetitive Intelligence Guru

10 High-Level Threats to Humanity21st Century Demands Defense in Depth

Poverty

Disease

Ecology

Inter-State War

Civil War

Genocide

Other Atrocities

Prolfieration

Terrorism

Trans. Crime

AgricultureD

iplomacy

Econom

yE

ducationEnergyFam

ilyH

ealthIm

migrationJusticeSecuritySociety

Water

1 2Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

Iran

Russia

Venezuela

Wild Cards

3

0

0

ENERGY

Terrorism Proliferation

Poverty

Infectious Disease

Environmental Degradation

Inter-State Conflict & Civil War

Genocide & Other

Atrocities

Transnational Crime1

2

3

4 & 5

6 & 7

89

10

AgricultureTIME

Diplomacy

Economy & Immigration

EducationFamily & Society

Health

Justice & Security

Water

High-Level Threats to Humanity

True Costs Known

Energized Reality-Based Policies

Energetically Waging Peace for Profit

Re-Focusing Defense IntelligenceCenter Collection on HUMINT-OSINT

1. Directorate of Open Sources & Methods (DO)2. DH to status as “god-father” of DO3. Global Virtual Translation Network within DO4. New ATL/OTE and IG Support Branches5. Plan for MILCON OSINT/MDSC Center in NCA6. Create Peace Support Network with USIP7. Civil Affairs Brigade Integrated into ConOps

1. Office of Information-Sharing Agreements2. Co-located with NDIC and Library3. Multinational Decision-Support Centre (MDSC)4. Brief 90 Nations, invite 1-3 person rotationals5. Create unclassified “pit”/”cave” at MDSC6. Create NRT feed of all DO raw information to SIPR7. Create Multinational Analytic Support Brigade

Re-Structuring Defense IntelligenceOrganizational Intelligence through Processing

1. DoD Does Not Do Any of These Well2. DIA Has a Chance to Create a Pilot that Does3. Cell Phones and Rapid SMS are the Field Key4. Harvesting Commercial Information Also Key5. DIA is Can Pioneer Organizational Intelligence6. Africa, Central Asia, South America all Prospects7. We Can Demonstrate Kinetic Value of OSINT

1. OSINT Program Line Will Allow Fresh Start2. Get Allocations Right in First Place3. Strategic Forecasting with EarthGame4. Global Intelligence Council, Multinational5. Global Help Desk within DIOSC and MDSC6. Global Network of Issue Monitors Online7. Common Global View of the Battlefield

Re-Vitalizing Defense IntelligenceAnalytics Must be Whole—In Depth

1. QDR Will Get It Wrong Without Integral Analysis’2. DoD Today Optimizes for 10% of the Threat3. DoD Today Obsessing on Two Small Boxes (0)4. Ten High-Level Threats Demand DoD Respect5. Twelve Policies Reduce DoD Exposure & Expense6. Eight Challengers will Determine the Future7. What We Can Do Is Show Them the Way Forward

1. Holistic Analysis Centered on Energy2. Threats are Related to One Another3. Policies Must be Harmonized within USG4. Spending Must be Harmonized by Issue Area5. USG Can Use OSINT to Influence Others’ $$$6. Global Range of Needs Table Available7. Information Peacekeeping & Arbitrage

History1.OMB Staff OK with $125M/Year IOC2.USD(I) Offered USSOCOM $2B/Year FOC3.OSINT Moribund Since BGen Stewart left4.Convergence of Players Occurring

Recommendations1.DIA elevate DIOSPO to Direct Report/DO2.OSINT Program Line Across DoD3.$125M IOC from 1 October 20094.USMC and USSOCOM as Pilot Partners5.MILCON for Quantico OSINT Center inclusive of Multinational Decision-Support Center