2008* embraer day ny aviação comercial
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Airline Market OverviewA perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment
Airline Market OverviewA perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment
Mauro KernExecutive Vice President
Commercial Aviation
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.
Forward Looking Statement
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
� Air Transport Industry Review
� 50-seat Regional Jet Market & the ERJ145 Family
� 70 to 120-seat Jet Market & the E-Jets
� Competitive Scenario
� Embraer Market Forecast
Contents
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Air Travel Demand Remains Growing
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008F
RP
K (
in T
rillio
n)
Source: ICAO
World Air Travel Demand
5.68.0 5.66.614.91.4-0.3-2.48.6YoY RPK (%)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
LCCs Putting Pressure on Fares
LCCs fleet and presence doubled since 2000
9%
105%
%
2,9978,5057,832Network
9744372,1202,8821,405LCC
20072000200720072000
Airports ServedBacklogFleet in Service
Source: BACK (Dec/07)
2007
2000
LCC Presence:
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Liberalization is Already Happening
Source: BACK (Dec/07 ; Number of Start-ups = New Airlines – Dead Airlines)
Many new airlines have started operations since Jan/06
Africa3 Start-ups
Asia Pacific10 Start-ups
China16 Start-ups
Europe56 Start-ups
Latin America4 Start-ups
Middle East13 Start-ups
North America18 Start-ups
Russia / CIS8 Start-ups
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009F 2011F
Yo
Y G
row
th (
%)
World Yields Remain Weak
• Strong yield environment in 2007, allowing revenues to offset fuel costs.• Positive trend likely to disappear in 2008, substantial efficiency improvements
will be required.Source: IATA
Forecast
World Nominal Yield
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
High Fuel Price will Stay
2.512.38
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2008 2009
* Prices as of 31Dec07
Crude Oil Price (US$ per barrel)
WTI: 105.47
Jet Fuel Price (US$ per Gallon)
New York: 2.97
Rotterdam: 2.99
China*: 2.74
Singapore: 2.82
Brazil*: 3.37
06Mar08
04Mar08
Source: EIA (Feb/08)
Jet Fuel Price Forecast (US$ per Gallon; EIA)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Airline´s Ability to Deal With Rising Costs
Source: IATA (Dec/07)
Fuel Consumption per Passenger (Gallon)
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009F
2011F
- 17% - 7%
Historic Forecast
Fuel Expenses (% of Total Expenses)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009F
2011F
+ 164% - 10%
Historic Forecast
Fuel efficiency is increasingbutFuel cost is rising
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: BACK (Dec/07 ; Scheduled Airlines)
1219,145World
231,282Russia & CIS
117,025North America
10617Middle East
151,277Latin America
104,150Europe
71,261China
112,822Asia Pacific
16711Africa
Avg. Age
# Acft. (TP+Jet)
Fleet by Region
Old Fleet Means Extra Operating Costs
YAK- 4033199
B727-2003062
Avg. Age# Acft
B737-20028204
DC 9-3037110
TU-13431135
AN-2437205
Around 650 jets (30-120 seats) with more than 25 years of age needurgent replacement
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Efficiency is the Name of the Game
Source: ACAS (Nov/07)
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Average Industry Load Factor Average Industry Utilization (Flight hours/day)
+ 9.5 pp+ 20%
• Record load factors helped airlines offset costs increases since 2000
• World airlines moving aggressively to redeploy assets and adjust aircraft utilization
World
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Positive Net Results Projected for 2007 & 2008
Source: IATA Economics Dec/07 (ICAO data to 2006 and IATA Forecast 2007-2008)
Europe
Values in US$ Billion
US net results includes restructuring costs andexcludes United Airlines ‘fresh-start’ accounting losses and gains
AfricaLatin America
North America
Middle East
Asia Pacific
World
05 06 07F2004 08F
-6.7 -2.7 2.7-10 2.2
1.6 1.8 2.11.1 2.0
05 06 07F2004 08F
0.2 0.2 0.20.2 0.2
05 06 07F2004 08F
-0.1 -0.2 -0.10.1 0.0
05 06 07F2004 08F
-0.4 -0.4 -0.1-0.3 -0.1
05 06 07F2004 08F
1.2 0.8 0.73.4 0.6
05 06 07F2004 08F
-4.1 -0.5 5.6-5.6 5.0
05 06 07F2004 08F
ERJ 145 Family
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
RJ50s Current Situation
� Worldwide Fleet in Service (Dec/07):
2050 aircraft
� Parked aircraft: 20 CRJs; 1 ERJ; 13 others
� only 2% of the total fleet – a stable market
� RJ50s: responsible for nearly 30% of US domestic departures and the most important hub-and-spoke system enabler
Source: BACK (Dec/07; FIS=Scheduled airlines and A/C active in service)
USA
70%
Europe
13%
ROW
8%CIS
9%
Parked
2%
In
Service
98%
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
ERJ 145 Family Order Book
(December 31st. 2007)
46
46
-
-
FirmBacklog
869131915Total
687131733ERJ 145
74-74ERJ 140
108-108ERJ 135
DeliveriesOptionsFirm
Orders
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Dec 1998Dec 1998
Dec 1999Dec 1999
Aug 2000Aug 2000
Mar 2001Mar 2001 Sep 2001Sep 2001 May 2003May 2003
Dec 1996Dec 1996
First DeliveryFirst Delivery
May 2002May 2002 Feb 2005Feb 2005May 2004May 2004
1,000 ERJ145 Platforms Already Delivered
September, 2007
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
RJ50 Evolution on Non-Traditional Markets
2004
405 nm405 nmAv. Stage Length
1818Markets
55# Aircraft
ERJ145RJ50
369 nm362 nmAv. Stage Length
78106Markets
2744# Aircraft
ERJ145RJ50
Source: BACK (Dec/2007), RJ50 includes ERJ145 and CRJ100/200/440
2007
Mexico´́́́s RJ fleet grew in three years to 44 aircraft from just 5
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
20062003
Source: CAAC
RJ50 Evolution on Non-Traditional Markets
China´́́́s RJ aviation is growing at slower pace but has huge potential
196 Markets - 45 A/C 223 Markets - 61 A/C
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
USA
Europe
China
30-120 Seats
120-210 Seatsunbalanced jet fleet
11%
33%
42%
% of Fleet
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
RJ50s Future Market Trends
• Market entered a mature phase in the US and Europe
• RJ50s will remain the backbone of US hub feeding system
• Some new market opportunities (long and thin) in the US and EU
• Potential for regional aviation development in China and Russia
• Secondary markets will keep expanding
E-Jets Family… an efficiency tool!
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
EMBRAER 170• 70 to 80 Seats• 2,100 nm Range• Certification – February 2004
EMBRAER 170/175
EMBRAER 190/195
EMBRAER 175• 78 to 88 Seats• 2,000 nm Range• Certification – December 2004
EMBRAER 190• 98 to 114 Seats• 2,400 nm Range • Certification – August 2005
EMBRAER 195• 108 to 122 Seats• 2,200 nm Range• Certification – June 2006
E-Jets Family
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Family Order Book
47135960EMBRAER 195
430
282
70
31
FirmBacklog
334786764Total
123452405EMBRAER 190
59148129EMBRAER 175
139127170EMBRAER 170
DeliveriesOptionsFirm
Orders
(December 31st. 2007)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Deployment - North America
27% 51% 8% 14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Natural Growth Right-sizing
Direct Replacement New Markets
E-Jets
Dec/07
29 E175
76 E170
25 E175
46 E19011 E190
27 E1759 E175
3 E19015 E175
42 E190
176208
71 E19030 E190
BacklogDeliveries
Source: BACK (4Q07), Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
2007318
E-Jets Complementing Narrowbodies
2008436
Charlotte – Toronto
Seats*
Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January
20071,033
A319
2008992
Toronto - Halifax
E190A320
A320
A320
A320
A320
A320
A319
E190A320
A319
A319
A319
E190
E190
737-300
737-300
E170
737-300
E175
737-400
CRJ-200
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Interchanged with Narrowbodies
E-Jets Narrowbodies
Source: BACK
Apr/06
Denver -Montreal
Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter
Apr/06
E-Jets provide year-round network coverage, optimizing fleet
capacity to seasonal market demand
Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter
New York - Portland
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
42% 43% 7% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Natural Growth Right-sizing
Direct Replacement New Markets
E-Jets Deployment - Europe
2 E195
10 E190
10 E195
5 E190
6 E170 5 E190
5 E190
30 E190
6 E1958 E195
4 E19010 E170
6 E190
6 E170
E-Jets
Dec/07
78 53
10 E1706 E175
2 E170
BacklogDeliveries
Source: BACK (4Q07), Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Helsinki - Gothenburg Helsinki - Dusseldorf Helsinki - Warsaw
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
Seats Oferred 126 202 304 126 226 278 76 202 252
6:00
E170 E170
8:00 A319 E170 E170
E170 A319
10:00
A319
12:00 E170 E170
14:00
16:00 E170 A320 A319
E170 E190
18:00 A319 E170
E170
20:00 E170
22:00
Midnight
E170/190 at Finnair: Replacing/Complementing NBs
E-Jets right-sizing at Finnair: 76% of E170/190 markets
18 markets complementing A319/320s
11 markets replacing A319/320s and MD-80s
Source: BACK (Jan/08) *4th Wednesday of January
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
5% 20% 75%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Right-sizing Direct Replacement New Markets
2 E170
10 E170
1 E170
1 E1901 E170
2 E170
3 E175
4 E1901 E195
3 E190
50 E190
E-Jets
Dec/07
8513
3 E170
14 E1903 E170
BacklogDeliveries
E-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & China
Source: Back (4Q07), Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
* 500 nm sector, 100% Load Factor
Comparison: Fuel Burn / CO2 Emissions
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
E170 E175 BAe 146-
100
BAe 146-
200
F70 RJ85 DC9-10
+53%
Fuel Burn*: 61 to 90-seat segment
The E-Jets Family offers substantial fleet renewal benefits with fuel / emission reductions up to 50%.
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $2.50/gallon
E170/175 Fuel Savings Comparison with Older Jets
E175
F70
E170
BAe 146-100
BAe 146-200Avro RJ85
DC9-10
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Addtional Fuel Burn vs. E170
Ad
dit
ion
al
An
nu
al
Fu
el
Co
st
(US
$ -
tho
us
an
ds
) v
s.
E1
70
E170/175 can offer up to US$ 1.8 million yearly fuel savings
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
E190 E195 B717 B737-
200
B737-
300
B737-
500
F100 MD87 RJ100 DC9-30
+50%
Comparison: Fuel Burn / CO2 Emissions
Fuel Burn*: 91 to 120-seat segment
* 500 nm sector, 100% Load Factor
The E-Jets Family offers substantial fleet renewal benefits with fuel / emission reductions up to 50%.
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E190/195 Fuel Savings Comparison with Older Jets
500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $2.50/gallon
E190/195 can offer up to US$ 2.1 million yearly fuel savings
E195
717
737-500
F100
E190
737-200
737-300
737-400
MD87
Avro RJ100
DC9-30
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Additional Fuel Burn vs. E190
Ad
dit
ion
al A
nn
ual F
uel C
ost
(US
$ -
tho
usan
ds)
vs. E
190
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Air Canada – Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference (Jun/2007)
COPY
Domestic
International
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
27%42%
26%
8%
7%
6%
51%
42%
53%
14% 8% 15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
North America Europe World
% o
f T
ota
l E
-Je
ts M
ark
ets
Natural Growth Direct Replacement Right-sizing New Markets
E-Jets Deployment
Source: BACK (4Q07), Embraer
• 53% of E-Jets operations: right-sizing of narrowbody services
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
60
110 112 118
245
343
440
764
619
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Accu
mu
late
d F
irm
Ord
ers
Source: Embraer
Deliveries
1 2 3 4 9 14 19 29 44Customers/Operators
E-Jets Customer Base Evolution
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Worldwide Distribution
Growing and diversified customer-base across five continents.
Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers.
9%
20%
51%
13%
7%
Asia Pacific /China
Middle East /Africa
Europe
Latin America
North America
18%
28%
18%18%
18%
Customers Firm Orders
Source: Embraer (Dec/07)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Family - Efficiency to all Business Models
Source: Embraer (Dec/07 ; Sirte Oil and GECAS not presented)
Regional Network Low Cost
Charter
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
70 to 120-seat Future Market Trends
Traffic growth on high load factor RJ50 routes
Mainline service level on regional routes
LO
W C
OS
TN
ET
WO
RK
RE
GIO
NA
L
Right-sizing of low load factor narrow-body flights
Replacement of old and inefficient jets
Expansion into medium density markets
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Competitive Scenario: ARJ21 and SSJ100
ARJ21-700
SSJ100
• 121 aircraft (ARJ-21), 100% in ChinaOrderbook
• ARJ21-700 (90 pax): E175 (86 pax)
• Mostly restricted to China andsurrounding countries
Competition
• First flight: March/2008 (TBC)
• EIS: 2009
Program
• 88 aircraft, 78 in Russia + 10 in Italy(start-up airline)
Orderbook
• SSJ100/95 (95 pax): E190 (100 pax)
• SSJ100/75 (78 pax): E175 (82 pax)
• Mostly in CIS and Eastern Europe
Competition
• First flight delayed to April-June/2008
• EIS: 2009
Program
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Competitive Scenario: MRJ and CSeries
MRJ 70/90
CSeries
NoneOrderbook
• MRJ 70 (76 pax): E170 (80 pax)
• MRJ 90 (88 pax): E175 (88 pax)
• Initially restricted to Japan. Will haveto prove itself locally beforecompeting in the worldwide market.
Competition
• Launch: March/08
• EIS: 2012/2013
Program
NoneOrderbook
• C110 (110 pax): E195 (110 pax)
• C130 (130 pax): A319/737-700
• Worldwide. Project not optimized for short-mid range trips.
Competition
• ATO: Feb/08
• EIS: 2013 (earliest)
• Program cost incresed: $1bi to $3.2bi
Program
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Market Share - World (30-120 seats)
59
52
47
1 1
454242
4438
34
24
11
5
464747
45
45
43
52
44
4850505150
44
51
44
233
3
3738
23
14
84 4 4
2 2345
88
223
222
3
121 10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Feb/08
(%)
Embraer: ERJ 145/140/135 ; Embraer 170/175/190/195
Bombardier: CRJ100/200/440/700/900/1000
Airbus: A318
Boeing: B737-600
AVIC I: ARJ-21
Sukhoi: Superjet 100
Antonov: An-148
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
RPKRPKRPKRPK
GDPGDPGDPGDP
Projected Economic and Traffic Growth
Source: Global Insight and Embraer (Dec/07)
NorthAmerica
AfricaLatin America
Middle East
World
Europe Russia / CIS
China
2.7% 4.0%
4.0% 6.1%
2.1% 4.5% 4.1% 5.4%
7.0% 7.5%
4.8% 5.4%
4.2% 6.2%
2.7% 5.3%
3.2% 4.9%
Asia Pacific
Growth by Region (2008-2027)
Projected world GDP growth around 3% in the next twenty years sustaining nearly 5% annual increase in air transport demand
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
4,300
1,950
1,525
825
2018 - 2027
7,450
3,750
2,600
1,100
2008 - 2027
3,15030 - 120
1,80091 - 120
1,07561 - 90
27530 - 60
2008 – 2017Market Segment (Seats)
Embraer Market Forecast (2008-2027)
Right-sizing of narrowbody operations, replacement of old & inefficient jets and airline expansion into mid-density markets.
91-120
75-seater as a natural growth of RJ50s.61-90
Mature market, low 50-seat demand in the short/mid term.30-60
Projected Deliveries - Jets
Main Drivers
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Market Forecast (2008-2027)
45%
3,330
North
America
8%
580
Latin
America
17%
1,350
Europe
7%
510
Russia / CIS
3%
220
Africa
3%
190
Middle East
7%
540
Asia Pacific
10%
730
China
7,450 new jets in the 30 to 120-seat segment
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Around the WorldE-Jets Around the World
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