2005 mid-year investment report. expect a strong & sustainable real estate market through 2006...
TRANSCRIPT
2005 Mid-Year
Investment Report
Expect a Strong & Sustainable Expect a Strong & Sustainable Real Estate Market Through Real Estate Market Through
20062006 Waikiki Gentrification and InvestmentWaikiki Gentrification and Investment Sustainable Military SpendingSustainable Military Spending Safe HarborSafe Harbor Geographic DiversificationGeographic Diversification Institutional Capital: Hawaii is a Sweet Institutional Capital: Hawaii is a Sweet SpotSpot Baby Boomers Investing in Hawaii Baby Boomers Investing in Hawaii Lifestyle InvestmentLifestyle Investment Low Interest RatesLow Interest Rates International Buyers: Cheap U.S. International Buyers: Cheap U.S. DollarDollar
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Euro U.K. Pound Canadian Dollar German Deutsche
Dollar’s Devaluation Helps International Dollar’s Devaluation Helps International BuyersBuyers
2001-2005 Dollar Slides @ 20%2001-2005 Dollar Slides @ 20%
Source: exchangerate.com
Historical Interest Rate Trend1-Month LIBOR vs. 10 Year Treasury
0123456789
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Inte
rest
Rat
e 1-Month LIBOR
10 Yr. Treasury
Source: Fannie May & Economagic.com
Recent Trends in Office Capitalization Rates
6
7
8
9
10
Offic
e Cap
italiz
ation
Rate
(%)
CBD Spread Between Treasury & Cap Rate
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Perc
enta
ge R
ate Office Cap. Rate
10 Yr. Treasury
2005 2nd Qtr Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
Orange County Honolulu Los Angeles San Diego San Fransisco
5150
6611
8687
94058893
55195206
5545
37394125
5127
6151
71077667
9312
11326
12590
12242
3902
5326
9572
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
Total Annual Home SalesTotal Annual Home SalesOahu MLS – 1985 to June 2005Oahu MLS – 1985 to June 2005
Information obtained from the Honolulu Board of Realtors MLS Service. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Total Monthly Inventory of ListingsTotal Monthly Inventory of ListingsOahu MLS 1987 – June 2005Oahu MLS 1987 – June 2005
Information obtained from the Honolulu Board of Realtors MLS Service. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Ja
n-8
7A
ug
-87
Ma
r-8
8O
ct-
88
Ma
y-8
9D
ec
-89
Ju
l-9
0F
eb
-91
Se
p-9
1A
pr-
92
No
v-9
2J
un
-93
Ja
n-9
4A
ug
-94
Ma
r-9
5O
ct-
95
Ma
y-9
6D
ec
-96
Ju
l-9
7F
eb
-98
Se
p-9
8A
pr-
99
No
v-9
9J
un
-00
Ja
n-0
1A
ug
-01
Ma
r-0
2O
ct-
02
Ma
y-0
3D
ec
-03
Ju
l-0
4F
eb
-05
Se
p-0
5
Percent Homes Sold Above List Price Percent Homes Sold Above List Price Oahu MLS 2000 – June 2005Oahu MLS 2000 – June 2005
Information obtained from the Honolulu Board of Realtors MLS Service. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Jan
-00
Ap
r-00
Jul-0
0
Oct
-00
Jan
-01
Ap
r-01
Jul-0
1
Oct
-01
Jan
-02
Ap
r-02
Jul-0
2
Oct
-02
Jan
-03
Ap
r-03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-05
Jul-0
5
SF SAL
CND SAL
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Houston LA Miami Oahu San Diego SanFransisco
Tampa
Hotel Occupancy Index – July 2005Hotel Occupancy Index – July 2005
Source: Smith Travel Research
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Houston LA Miami Oahu San Diego SanFransisco
Tampa
Average Daily Rate – July 2005Average Daily Rate – July 2005
Source: Smith Travel Research
Hotel Condominium ConversionsHotel Condominium Conversions
Office Vacancy Index
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Vaca
ncy
Rate
%
Industrial Availability Index
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Perc
enta
ge R
ate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Self Storage Market Supply (SF/Capita)
Hawaii is Undersupplied
Source: Mini Storage Association
Ren
tab
le S
F/C
apit
a
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Assisted Living Assisted Living Plus Dementia
DemandSupply
No.
of
beds
Assisted Living MarketAssisted Living Market