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MBS Bulletin Manitoba Labour Market, July 2020 1 August 07, 2020 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division Labour Force Survey July 2020 For the month of July, the Manitoba labour force decreased by 500 persons, or by 0.1%, while Canada's labour force increased by 149,500 (0.8%). Compared to the previous July, the labour force decreased 0.6% in Manitoba. Manitobas employment level increased by 12,400 (2.0%) in July. This follows an increase of 28,900 positions in the previous month. Employment levels varied across the country, with Manitobas change in employment ranking seventh (2.0%), while Alberta saw the largest increase among the provinces (3.2%). New Brunswick ranked last among all provinces with a decrease of 0.5%. Canadas employment over the one-month period increased by 418,500 persons or 2.4%. From July 2019 to July 2020 Manitobas employment decreased by 20,700 persons, or 3.2%. The number of private sector employees in Manitoba increased by 7,600 (2.1%) from June to July. The public sector increased by 3,800 jobs, or 2.4%. The number of self-employed persons also increased by 1,000 positions (1.1%). Full-time employment increased by 6,200 positions (1.3%) from June to July while part-time employment also increased by 6,100 positions (5.0%). Labour Force Survey Notes The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a household survey carried out monthly by Statistics Canada. employment rate is the number of employed people as a percentage of the population aged 15+. unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labour force (employed and unemployed and looking for work). participation rate is the number in the labour force as a percentage of the population. Full-time employment is the number of persons who working 30 hours+ per week at their main job. All estimates are seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise specified. This removes seasonal and calendar effects allowing for comparisons between time periods. The LFS estimates are based on a sample and are therefore subject to sampling variability. http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl? Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3701 Employment growth by province, June 2020 to July 2020 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0287-01 (formerly CANSIM 282-0087) Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, tables 14-10-0287-01 and 14-10-0355-01 (formerly CANSIM 282-0087 and 282-0088) Manitoba Labour Market, June 2020 to July 2020 2.4 2.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 AB BC SK QC CA ON NL MB PE NS NB month-over-month change (%) Jun-20 Jul-20 Working-Age (15+) Population 1,046,500 1,046,800 0.0% Labour force 685,800 685,300 -0.1% Employment 616,700 629,100 2.0% Full-time 495,600 501,800 1.3% Part-time 121,200 127,300 5.0% Private Employment 459,400 468,000 1.9% Private Sector Employees 370,600 378,200 2.1% Self-employed 88,800 89,800 1.1% Public Sector Employees 157,300 161,100 2.4% Unemployment rate (%) 10.1 8.2 -1.9pts Youth Unemployment rate (%) 19.3 17.4 -1.9pts Participation rate (%) 65.5 65.5 0pts Employment rate (%) 58.9 60.1 1.2pts Change

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Page 1: 2.0% MBS Bulletin 1.3% -0.1% Labour Force Survey Working ...€¦ · (2.0%), while Alberta saw the largest increase among the provinces (3.2%). New runswick ranked last among all

MBS Bulletin M a n i t o b a L a b o u r M a r k e t , J u l y 2 0 2 0 1

August 07, 2020 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Labour Force Survey

J u l y 2 0 2 0

For the month of July, the Manitoba labour force

decreased by 500 persons, or by 0.1%, while Canada's

labour force increased by 149,500 (0.8%).

Compared to the previous July, the labour force

decreased 0.6% in Manitoba.

Manitoba’s employment level increased by 12,400

(2.0%) in July. This follows an increase of 28,900

positions in the previous month. Employment

levels varied across the country, with

Manitoba’s change in employment ranking seventh

(2.0%), while Alberta saw the largest increase among

the provinces (3.2%). New Brunswick ranked last

among all provinces with a decrease of 0.5%.

Canada’s employment over the one-month period

increased by 418,500 persons or 2.4%. From July

2019 to July 2020 Manitoba’s employment

decreased by 20,700 persons, or 3.2%.

The number of private sector employees in Manitoba

increased by 7,600 (2.1%) from June to July.

The public sector increased by 3,800 jobs, or 2.4%.

The number of self-employed persons also increased by

1,000 positions (1.1%).

Full-time employment increased by 6,200 positions

(1.3%) from June to July while part-time employment

also increased by 6,100 positions (5.0%).

Labour Force Survey Notes

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a household survey

carried out monthly by Statistics Canada.

employment rate is the number of employed people

as a percentage of the population aged 15+.

unemployment rate is the number of unemployed

people as a percentage of the labour force

(employed and unemployed and looking for work).

participation rate is the number in the labour force

as a percentage of the population.

Full-time employment is the number of persons

who working 30 hours+ per week at their main job.

All estimates are seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise

specified. This removes seasonal and calendar effects

allowing for comparisons between time periods.

The LFS estimates are based on a sample and are

therefore subject to sampling variability.

http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?

Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3701

Employment growth by province, June 2020 to July 2020

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0287-01 (formerly CANSIM 282-0087)

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, tables 14-10-0287-01

and 14-10-0355-01 (formerly CANSIM 282-0087 and 282-0088)

Manitoba Labour Market, June 2020 to July 2020

2.42.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

AB BC SK QC CA ON NL MB PE NS NB

month-over-month change (%)

Jun-20 Jul-20

Working-Age (15+) Population 1,046,500 1,046,800 ↑ 0.0%

Labour force 685,800 685,300 ↓ -0.1%

Employment 616,700 629,100 ↑ 2.0%

Full-time 495,600 501,800 ↑ 1.3%

Part-time 121,200 127,300 ↑ 5.0%

Private Employment 459,400 468,000 ↑ 1.9%

Private Sector Employees 370,600 378,200 ↑ 2.1%

Self-employed 88,800 89,800 ↑ 1.1%

Public Sector Employees 157,300 161,100 ↑ 2.4%

Unemployment rate (%) 10.1 8.2 ↓ -1.9pts

Youth Unemployment rate (%) 19.3 17.4 ↓ -1.9pts

Participation rate (%) 65.5 65.5 ↔ 0pts

Employment rate (%) 58.9 60.1 ↑ 1.2pts

Change

Page 2: 2.0% MBS Bulletin 1.3% -0.1% Labour Force Survey Working ...€¦ · (2.0%), while Alberta saw the largest increase among the provinces (3.2%). New runswick ranked last among all

MBS Bulletin M a n i t o b a L a b o u r M a r k e t , J u l y 2 0 2 0 2

August 07, 2020 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Manitoba Employment Trend

Since the beginning of 2018, Manitoba’s employment trend exhibited strong growth and leveled off during the first three months in 2019. The preliminary trend in Manitoba’s employment experienced steady growth in the last quarter of 2019, which leveled off in the beginning of 2020. A large drop-off came in the following months caused by COVID-19. The declining trend started leveling off slowly from May 2020 due to the economy beginning to reopen.

Manitoba’s unemployment rate was 8.2% for July 2020,

down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.

When comparing among Canadian provinces, Manitoba

ranked first, while Newfoundland and Labrador

recorded the highest rate at 15.6%. Manitoba’s July

unemployment rate was below Canada’s rate of 10.9%.

Compared to July 2019, Manitoba’s unemployment rate

was up 2.4 percentage points.

The province’s youth (aged 15 to 24 years)

unemployment rate of 17.4% was down 1.9 percentage

points from June to July and was below Canada’s rate of

24.2%. Compared to the previous July, the youth

unemployment rate in Manitoba was up 5.0

percentage points.

Contact: Mostofa Sarkar [email protected]

MBS intranet website: http://intranet.mbgov.ca/finance/mbs/Pages/default.aspx

MBS public website: http://www.gov.mb.ca/mbs/

What is the Trend-cycle?

The trend-cycle estimates are a smoothed version of the

seasonally adjusted time series, removing the irregular

component of the data (unexpected economic events or

shocks). It provides information on longer-term

movements in the series. It is calculated as a weighted

average of 13 months, centered on the reference

month—referred to as a symmetric moving average. The

most recent 6 estimates are based only on the available

months of data and are considered preliminary.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/dai/btd/tce-faq

Manitoba Employment, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, July 2017 to July 2020

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0287-01 (formerly CANSIM 282-0087)

Unemployment Rate, July 2020

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0287-01 (formerly CANSIM 282-0087)

8.2

10.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

MB SK QC NB NS CA BC ON PE AB NL

rate (%)

550.0

570.0

590.0

610.0

630.0

650.0

670.0

Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20

thousands

Seasonally Adjusted Trend-cycle

Page 3: 2.0% MBS Bulletin 1.3% -0.1% Labour Force Survey Working ...€¦ · (2.0%), while Alberta saw the largest increase among the provinces (3.2%). New runswick ranked last among all

MBS Bulletin M a n i t o b a L a b o u r M a r k e t , J u l y 2 0 2 0 3

August 07, 2020 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Note: Table figures are represented as a three month moving average using unadjusted data

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0293-01

Regional Labour Market Indicators

Month-over-month Jun-20 Jul-20

Labour Force 420,500 434,900 ↑ 3.4%

Employment 371,000 384,900 ↑ 3.7%

Unemployment 49,500 50,000 ↑ 1.0%

Unemployment rate (%) 11.8 11.5 ↓ -0.3pts

Participation rate (%) 65.4 67.6 ↑ 2.2pts

Year-over-year Jul-19 Jul-20

Labour Force 432,500 434,900 ↑ 0.6%

Employment 407,400 384,900 ↓ -5.5%

Unemployment 25,100 50,000 ↑ 99.2%

Unemployment rate (%) 5.8 11.5 ↑ 5.7pts

Participation rate (%) 68.2 67.6 ↓ -0.6pts

Winnipeg, Manitoba

Change

Change

Month-over-month Jun-20 Jul-20

Labour Force 60,200 61,800 ↑ 2.7%

Employment 55,800 57,900 ↑ 3.8%

Unemployment 4,400 4,000 ↓ -9.1%

Unemployment rate (%) 7.3 6.5 ↓ -0.8pts

Participation rate (%) 62.3 63.9 ↑ 1.6pts

Year-over-year Jul-19 Jul-20

Labour Force 63,800 61,800 ↓ -3.1%

Employment 61,900 57,900 ↓ -6.5%

Unemployment 1,900 4,000 ↑ 110.5%

Unemployment rate (%) 3 6.5 ↑ 3.5pts

Participation rate (%) 66.7 63.9 ↓ -2.8pts

Southeast, ManitobaChange

Change

Month-over-month Jun-20 Jul-20

Labour Force 56,500 58,200 ↑ 3.0%

Employment 50,500 53,400 ↑ 5.7%

Unemployment 6,000 4,800 ↓ -20.0%

Unemployment rate (%) 10.6 8.2 ↓ -2.4pts

Participation rate (%) 62.2 64.1 ↑ 1.9pts

Year-over-year Jul-19 Jul-20

Labour Force 61,900 58,200 ↓ -6.0%

Employment 58,700 53,400 ↓ -9.0%

Unemployment 3,200 4,800 ↑ 50.0%

Unemployment rate (%) 5.2 8.2 ↑ 3.0pts

Participation rate (%) 68.5 64.1 ↓ -4.4pts

Southwest, ManitobaChange

Change

Page 4: 2.0% MBS Bulletin 1.3% -0.1% Labour Force Survey Working ...€¦ · (2.0%), while Alberta saw the largest increase among the provinces (3.2%). New runswick ranked last among all

MBS Bulletin M a n i t o b a L a b o u r M a r k e t , J u l y 2 0 2 0 4

August 07, 2020 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Note: Table figures are represented as a three month moving average using unadjusted data

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0293-01

Regional Labour Market Indicators (continued)

South Central and North Central, ManitobaMonth-over-month Jun-20 Jul-20

Labour Force 55,600 55,600 ↔ 0.0%

Employment 51,900 52,500 ↑ 1.2%

Unemployment 3,700 3,100 ↓ -16.2%

Unemployment rate (%) 6.7 5.6 ↓ -1.1pts

Participation rate (%) 62.8 62.8 ↔ 0.0pts

Year-over-year Jul-19 Jul-20

Labour Force 56,600 55,600 ↓ -1.8%

Employment 53,800 52,500 ↓ -2.4%

Unemployment 2,700 3,100 ↑ 14.8%

Unemployment rate (%) 4.8 5.6 ↑ 0.8pts

Participation rate (%) 64.4 62.8 ↓ -1.6pts

Change

Change

Month-over-month Jun-20 Jul-20

Labour Force 45,300 45,800 ↑ 1.1%

Employment 40,400 41,900 ↑ 3.7%

Unemployment 4,900 3,900 ↓ -20.4%

Unemployment rate (%) 10.8 8.5 ↓ -2.3pts

Participation rate (%) 59.3 59.9 ↑ 0.6pts

Year-over-year Jul-19 Jul-20

Labour Force 49,300 45,800 ↓ -7.1%

Employment 47,000 41,900 ↓ -10.9%

Unemployment 2,300 3,900 ↑ 69.6%

Unemployment rate (%) 4.7 8.5 ↑ 3.8pts

Participation rate (%) 64.6 59.9 ↓ -4.7pts

Interlake, ManitobaChange

Change

Month-over-month Jun-20 Jul-20

Labour Force 30,900 31,000 ↑ 0.3%

Employment 28,300 28,500 ↑ 0.7%

Unemployment 2,500 2,500 ↔ 0.0%

Unemployment rate (%) 8.1 8.1 ↔ 0.0pts

Participation rate (%) 60.6 61 ↑ 0.4pts

Year-over-year Jul-19 Jul-20

Labour Force 33,400 31,000 ↓ -7.2%

Employment 30,500 28,500 ↓ -6.6%

Unemployment 2,900 2,500 ↓ -13.8%

Unemployment rate (%) 8.7 8.1 ↓ -0.6pts

Participation rate (%) 63.6 61 ↓ -2.6pts

Parklands and North, ManitobaChange

Change