Part of the BRE Trust

BRE National Solar CentreRay Noble

NSc Eden Event, 25th June 2014

Opportunities for Solar following the UK Solar Strategy

1. The Governments Solar Strategy

- Published in two parts

October 2013 & April 2014

- Sets out the future

deployment at 12GW to

20GW

- Presently DECC think we

are at 2.8GW deployed

- Unfortunately DECC,

National Grid, Network

Suppliers & Ofgem cannot

keep up with the rapid

deployment of Solar

- Growth of Solar is fuelled

by the 60% fall in installed

prices over 3 years

2. Present Deployment

- Solar deployment is exceeding all DECC predictions – now 4.80GW

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Part 1 (Oct 2013)

Part 2 (Apr 2014)

20GW Ambition

Actual

Budget

Result - Emergency Consultation!!!

3. Highlights of the Solar Strategy

- No change to FIT’s

- No change to ROC’s for under 5MW - roof or field projects

- Over 5MW Solar Fields to be stopped – Consultation underway

- A focus on Solar to be installed on all types of Buildings

- Solar Fields on previously used land OK but avoid good agricultural

land (but now with a maximum of 5MW)

- Permitted development for large roofs to be changed (Consultation in

June)

- BIPV on new build will be encouraged (improved aesthetics)

- Presently over 510,000 Domestics have Solar

- DECC would like to see this double by 2016

- Community Solar projects being encouraged (possibly up to 10MW)

- Ofgem to speed up registration process

- A number of other changes, “barriers” being investigated including grid,

EPCs, roof lease terms, multiple projects digression, etc

- UK to install 1GW of Solar on Government Estate by 2016

4. Feed in Tariff

- Subsidy is there to help stimulate the market

- Paid for 20 years

- Index linked to RPI

- Export tariff 4.77p/kWh

- Present ROI around 12%

Description

Installed after 1/4/2014

(p/kWh)

4kW or less, newbuild 14.38 (14.38 in July)

4kW or less, retrofit 14.38 (14.38 in July)

greater than 4kW but not exceeding 10kW 13.03 (13.03 in July)

greater than 10kW but not exceeding 50kW 12.13 (12.13 in July)

greater than 50kW but not exceeding 100kW 10.71 (10.34 in July)

greater than 100kW but not exceeding 150kW 10.71 (10.38 in July)

greater than 150kW but not exceeding 250kW 10.25 (9.89 in July)

greater than 250kW 6.61 (6.38 in July)

Stand-alone (not attached to a building and not wired to provide

electricity to an occupied building)6.61 (6.38 in July)

5. Feed in Tariff – Digression mechanism

- Automatic adjustment of tariff based on deployment in a previous 3

month period

- Reductions generally 0% or a maximum of 3.5%

- 9 month rule 3.5% digression even if no deployment

Degression

bands and

trigger points

0-10kW 10 – 50kW >50kW and

stand alone

% degression

point 1 100MW 50MW 50MW 0%

point 2 200MW 100MW 100MW 3.5%

point 3 250MW 150MW 150MW 7%

point 4 300MW 200MW 200MW 14%

point 5 >300MW >200MW >200MW 28%

6. ROCs

- New replacement to ROCs for projects above 5MW being introduced

“Contract for Difference”, bid for an allocation

- Paid for 15 years

- Subsidy overlaps with FITs above 50kWp

- Paid for 20 years

- One ROC worth around 4.257p/kWh

- Electricity sold to the highest bidder, generally around 5.2p/kWh, but

higher with a PPA

- Present ROI around 12%

ROCs/MWh and bands 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Building-mounted 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4

Ground mounted 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

7. Why Solar

- Solar prices continue to fall and is now 30% cheaper than Offshore

Wind

- Grid electricity prices set to double by 2020

- Solar electricity predicted to be cheaper than fossil fuel generation

during this decade

- Solar already cheaper than Nuclear

- Shell New Lens Report “Solar will dominate the Global energy market

this century, predicts 37.7% of the Worlds energy will come from Solar”

- Sir David King (ex Gov. Chief Scientist) calling for an Apollo

movement in Solar which could provide 25% of the Worlds energy by

2025

- IPCC report on Climate Change “must move away from Fossil fuel

generation

- Storage, the holy grail of Solar, will be viable within 2 to 4 years

8. Solar Fields

- Guidance produced by the NSC

- Some projects initially were poorly

sited

- NSC recommends only land which is

flat, well screened by hedges / trees,

away from roads and houses, invisible

within the landscape and of poor

quality soil should be used

- NSC also produced guidance on

Biodiversity potential of Solar Farms,

supported all of the NGO’s

- NFU are big supporters of Solar

Fields which they see as being another

crop that farmers can produce

- See www.bre.co.uk/nsc

9. Good Solar Fields are virtually invisible

10. Large Roofs

- Large Solar roofs are virtually

invisible, those below 50kWp need

no Planning permission but large

roofs do! Government will change

this soon

- Roofs are ideal for Solar as

electricity is generated where it is

used

11. Community Solar

- Solar on Roofs or Solar in Fields

can be owned, or part owned, by the

Community

- Good Developers offering

Community share arrangements

- Investment for the Community

provides returns significantly more

than an ISA

- Electricity sold to the grid or through

a PPA at present

- But Government investigating

changes to supply rules so that

Community generators can use this

electricity in their own homes

- Government want the big 60,000

not the big 6

12. Domestic Roofs

- Over 510,000 houses now have

Solar and Government would like

this to grow to 1million by 2016

- Many users have become more

energy efficient overall as a result

13. Domestic Integrated Solar

- Integrated systems should

virtually make the Solar invisible

- Covering half the roof is

approximately the equivalent

generation as electricity used in

the house

14. Solar Canopies over car parks

- Large surface car parks are ideal

for Solar canopies. Electricity can

be fed into the adjacent building

- Growth Electric Vehicles and Plug

in Hybrids charged with Solar

electricity will make the vehicle

truly “Green”

15. Solar Performance in the UK

- Solar products continue to

improve in efficiency

- Generation is significantly better

than originally predicted

- NSC working with the Met Office

to link measured light levels to

generation to improve industry

predictions

- Initial indications by Met Office

suggest that light levels are

improving year on year which

could be the result of climate

change

16. Storage

- Until very recently DECC and

National Grid thought that storage

was 10/20 years away

- The motor industry are

developing storage at a rapid rate

for EV’s and super Hybrid’s

- Germany has already put in place

a Domestic storage program

- In the UK it is expected that

Domestic storage will become

viable within 2/4 years

- For those with Solar systems it

would mean an end to exporting

their high value electricity

- Storage can also be used to help

balance the grid

This survey was carried out by DECC!!!

17. Public love Solar

18. Future

- Solar is becoming a part of the

energy mix in the UK

- Latest National Grid figures

indicate that Solar produced

around 3.5% of the electricity

requirements in June (up to 8% 0f

daytime load)

- This will double by May 2015,

expect around 9GW

- Solar is here to stay and is a threat

to existing generators and allows

everyone to be an electricity

generator

19. Opportunities for Cornish Companies

- We want to assist you to grow the market

- We want to pilot various ways to develop new customers

- We need to understand how you believe we can help

nobler@bre.co.uk

www.bre.co.uk/nsc

- We want to assist you to grow

the market

- We want to pilot various ways to

develop new customers

- We need to understand how

you believe we can help

Opportunities for Cornish Companies