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Page 1: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004
Page 2: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Michael Hayes

Strategic Rail Authority

Transport Modelling Manager

SRA Transport Model Development 2004

Page 3: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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This Presentation

• SRA transport modelling

• Current model development

• Future model development

• Current EMME/2 problems

Page 4: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

• The Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) is responsible for planning the development of the UK rail network in a multi-modal context.

• Interactions with local transport authorities in major cities, especially London.

• Extensive private sector involvement, with interactions involving revenues, track access charges and subsidy / premium payments.

• Sections of the UK rail network are congested, immense pressure to make best use of capacity.

Page 5: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

Key modelling challenges:• Crowding, especially on commuter lines into London

(some lines running at 150% of capacity).• Reliability, both at train and at passenger levels.• Critical examination of the value of individual rail

services where capacity is at a premium.• In certain areas, interaction of rail network demand

with station interchange and crowding – several stations have to be closed to avoid overcrowding.

Page 6: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

Passenger demand forecasting models:• PLANET North / South models• PLANET Strategic model• MOIRA• PLATO

Reliability models:• Merit• Railsys / Vision

Page 7: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

PLANET North / South. • Morning and inter-peak models for North and South

of country, concentrating on short distance movements into urban centres.

• Frequency based EMME/2 model.• Own mode elasticities to generalised journey time.• Crowding based on factoring in-vehicle time.• Takes around 2 hours to run a test.

Page 8: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

PLANET Strategic Model• All day model for the UK, including road and air

movements. Designed for longer distance movements (over about 80km)

• Frequency based EMME/2 model.• Full mode choice procedures.• Crowding based on factoring in-vehicle time.• Takes around 2 hours to run a test.

Page 9: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

MOIRA• Covers all UK rail network (ten separate submodels)• Full representation of all train services, with train-by-

train, stop-by-stop loadings, but no crowding or fares.• Timetable-based assignment (bespoke model based

using Delphi). Time of travel based on surveys.• Fed automatically from central timetable and ticket

data sources.• Takes around 2 minutes to run a test.

Page 10: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

PLATO• Developed for specific lines from MOIRA• Includes crowding algorithms to allow time-shifting.• Requires detailed count data for calibration purposes.• Takes around 20 minutes to run a test (???)

Page 11: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

MERIT• Strategic level reliability model.• Uses historic delay data (by type of incident) to

predict delay minutes for an altered timetable.• Outputs train-by-train average delay data.

Page 12: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

Vision / RailSys• Detailed reliability models.• Use stochastic simulation of delays to calculate

average delay minutes for each service.• Outputs train-by-train average delay data.

Page 13: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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SRA transport modelling

SRA modelling activities• Models used to develop business cases for

enhancements, train service specifications, affordability estimates, strategies and policies.

• Use a panel of six transport planning consultancies for PLANET modelling, about the same number for other modelling activities.

• Typically 50 to 100 commissions involving significant modelling activity per year, around 20 involving PLANET.

Page 14: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current model development

SRA develop PLANET demand forecasting models.• Ongoing model enhancements, updating networks

and demand matrices based on new timetables and latest ticket sales data (received annually).

• Detailed surveys undertaken every 10 years to establish more detailed journey patterns, especially those involving season ticket (travelcard) sales. Most recent data is now available for SE England, now reconciling with ticket data and rebasing models.

Page 15: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current model development

• Major increase in functionality has involved development of fares functionality.

• For most journeys in UK, variety of fares available, including time-restricted, advance-purchase and quota-restricted tickets.

• Substantial research already undertaken on elasticities of rail demand to change in fares, including cross-elasticities (Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook Version 4 – ATOC).

Page 16: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current model development

• Fares functionality developed by MVA Consultants, but using experience from all six Panel consultants.

• Uses fares matrix approach.• Changes in fare levels and restrictions feed through

to a composite generalised fare.• Change in restrictions also affects demand profile,

feeding into crowding calculations.• Impact on overall demand is calculated as part of

overall generalised time / cost elasticity function.

Page 17: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current model development

• Being extended to PLANET Strategic model, but significant problems encountered:– Individual zone-to-zone movements are allowed to rail-

head to distant stations, so fare matrix approach is difficult without knowledge of route assignment details.

– Although we can assume that station – station fares are independent of route (see next), cannot take point-to-point fares into account when running assignment.

– Left with less than ideal combination of fares matrices combined with p/km adjustments for rail-heading.

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Current model development

• Other problem includes premium fares:– In certain areas, fast services and local services have

different fares. Passengers often use local services to connect onto fast services.

– Each of the fares are set by different Train Operating Companies (TOCs) – up to 25 TOCs have “own TOC only” tickets. Impractical to increase number of assignments by factor of 25 (or more).

– Issue remains largely unresolved, with work-arounds for specific examples in individual areas.

Page 19: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current model development

• PLANET models have been audited, and incremental assignment replaced by iterative assignment.

• Detailed measure of convergence based on change in generalised costs.

• Mode choice iteration for all models, taking into account crowding effects on mode choice.

• Some development of standard ENIF outputs (mostly by Matt Carlson, Arup).

• Transit line editing tool (MS Access-based, developed by Matt Carlson, Arup).

Page 20: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Future model development

Areas of development:• Interface with timetable-based assignment tools

(MOIRA).• Conversion to ticket-based model, with assignments

reflecting ticket restrictions.• Interface with standard rail industry timetable and

reliability tools.• Incorporation of reliability into demand forecasting

models.

Page 21: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Future model development

Interface with MOIRA:• Increasing need to understand impacts of scheme at

individual station and train level.• Substantial development of MOIRA expected

(probably £500k - £1m over next five years).• Is there a way of gaining best value from both

detailed timetable-based and strategic frequency-based models?

Page 22: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Future model development

Conversion to ticket-based model:• Most demand information comes directly from ticket

sales information, factored by survey information.• Important to allocate ticket revenue to routes, not just

passengers.• Lots of ticket restrictions – difficult to incorporate in

assignment routines.• Would add substantial value to existing fares

modelling work.

Page 23: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Future model development

Interface with timetable and reliability tools:• Enables editing of transit lines in user-friendly way,

eliminates possibility of demand modellers “misunderstanding” service specifications.

• Will enable automatic updates of networks in models – substantial cost savings.

• Could be either EMME/2 based or Visual Basic.

Page 24: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Future model development

Incorporation of reliability into models:• Impact of Edinburgh – London train running late is

much greater for Edinburgh passengers than for Peterborough – London passengers (frequent services already operate Peterborough – London).

• Outputs of reliability models tend to be average lateness for each train service – need to know individual lateness before averaging to calculate impact on passengers.

Page 25: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Future model development

Incorporation of reliability into models:• How do you incorporate reliability within assignment? • Is it better to model at a strategic level (PLANET) or

detailed timetable level (MOIRA)?

Page 26: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current EMME/2 problems

SRA’s preferred areas of EMME/2 development:• Flexibility in assignment, including ability to skim

multiple additional attributes.• Better transit line editing tools. • Make Enif interface more user friendly (subject to

separate presentation!!)• Timetable based assignment process

Page 27: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current EMME/2 problems

Assignment flexibility:• Assigning demand on logit curve of generalised costs

of routes. Example Bradford – London, 1 direct service, 15 services with one change – should they all have equal demand?? Would also help premium fares problem.

• Assignments need to include combination of boarding and alighting node attributes (for fares work).

• Or even separate fares input?

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Current EMME/2 problems

Assignment flexibility:• Why not some module that estimates time-slice

demand matrices based on boarding / alighting time profiles at stations, combined with all-day O-D information?

• Why can you only skim one attribute during assignments? Easy win, and would cut model run times substantially.

Page 29: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current EMME/2 problems

Transit Line Editing:• Need look-up for transit lines with simple interface

and ability to directly edit – through Access-type interface?

• Current “interactive” tool is difficult to use when multiple transit lines use same segment.

Page 30: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current EMME/2 problems

Enif:• SRA have great need for straightforward examination

of (for example) loadings on groups of transit lines. • Previous versions of ENIF require expert knowledge

for even basic tasks – e.g. how many people are using a particular set of transit lines is not an obvious task from the manual.

• Outputs need to incorporate relationships between graphical objects and links

Page 31: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current EMME/2 problems

Page 32: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Current EMME/2 problems

Timetable based assignments:• EMME/2 lags behind other timetable-based

assignment models. • Should be a way of estimating time-specific demand

by using arrival and departure profiles at stations, together with (non-time specific) origin-destination matrices.

• Should be a way of using continuous profiles rather than discrete slices.

Page 33: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

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Summary

• Significant SRA model development over last two years.

• Excellent work by our supporting consultants.• Expectations of SRA clients is rising – need our

models (and supporting software) to keep track.

Page 34: 2 Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager SRA Transport Model Development 2004

www.sra.gov.uk