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abcGlobal Research

A once-in-a decade leadership

transition is about to take place in China

The new leaders will inherit a slowing

economy and a lengthy reform agenda

This has important implications for

Chinas credit, rates and equity markets

Welcome to HSBCs latest Point, counterpoint, a roundtable

discussion between our analysts about an important issue the

markets are talking about. Today, we look at what the 18th

National Congress of the Communist Party of China means

for the countrys economy and markets.

Power. The Party Congress meets every five years. While

no date has been announced for this year, we expect it to be

held in mid-October (like the previous meeting). This Party

Congress is particularly significant. A once-in-a-decade

leadership transition will take place and around two-thirds of

important party and government positions will change hands,

presenting challenges as well as opportunities.

Process. With the economy slowing, the most pressing issue

for the new leaders is to stabilise growth. However, changes

may take time. Each Party Congress is followed over the

course of the next five years by seven plenary sessions, or

plenums. We think the third plenum, which is expected to

deal with structural economic reforms, will be the most

important. It is likely to take place in October 2013.

Markets. Expectations are growing that the next major

easing measures will now take place after the Party

Congress. For stocks, a cyclical rebound is possible as

growth stabilizes. We believe a bull market will require

further major reforms, which could take at least a year. On

the credit front, corporate bond issuance, both in the public

market and private placements, is likely to remain strong.

For rates, while the market waits for monetary easing, we

think the Peoples Bank of China is doing what it can to help

support the market through open market operations.

The discussion centres on Steven Suns report Chinas

National Party Congress, What it means for macro and

markets, published on 20 September 2012.

Multi-asset

China Research

Point, counterpoint

Chinas 18th

National Congress: What it

means for credit, rates and equities

28 September 2012

Steven Sun*

Head of China Equity Strategy

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

+852 2822 4298 [email protected]

Zhiming Zhang

Head of China ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited


Pin Ru Tan

Asia-Pacific Rates Strategist Corporation Limited

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking


View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited

Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certificationsin the Disclosure appendix, and with theDisclaimer, which forms part of it
https://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=zINyF1XH2r&n=343240.PDFhttps://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=zINyF1XH2r&n=343240.PDFhttps://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=zINyF1XH2r&n=343240.PDFhttps://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=zINyF1XH2r&n=343240.PDFhttp://www.research.hsbc.com/http://www.research.hsbc.com/https://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=zINyF1XH2r&n=343240.PDFhttps://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=zINyF1XH2r&n=343240.PDFhttps://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=zINyF1XH2r&n=343240.PDFhttp://www.research.hsbc.com/


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The panel comprised Steven Sun, Head of China Equity Strategy, Zhiming Zhang, Head of China Research, and Pin Ru Tan, Asia-Pacific Rates Strategist. Tony

Shaw, Head of Institutional FX and Rates Sales (Asia-Pacific), asked the questions.

Tony Shaw

Head of Institutional FX and Rates Sales(Asia-Pacific)

Zhiming Zhang

Head of China Research

Steven Sun

Head of China Equity St rategy

Pin Ru Tan

Asia-Pacific Rates Strategist

Tony Shaw: How is the new leadership going to define itself over the next six months?

Zhiming Zhang: The change in personnel will be followed by the new leaders consolidating power at the Beijing level and key posts at the provincial andmunicipality level. Theyll have their hands full for the next six months.

Tony Shaw: Steven, can you explain to a general audience how the process works in practice?

Steven Sun: We've put together a report t rying to provide investors with a basic guide to how Chinas Communist Party operates. Each Party Congressis followed by seven plenary sess ions, or plenums, over the course of the next five years. The first focuses on the party leadership and thesecond, probably in February 2013, is responsible for the change in government leaders. The third plenum, which we think is the mostimportant, is likely to take place in October 2013 and will deal with structural economic reforms. The report gives you a roadmap of howthose events could unfold over the next five years.

Tony Shaw: In the last 3-4 months forward-looking indicators have fallen. Pin Ru, how patient is the market going to be about the monetary or fiscalpolicy response are investors expecting measures to be delayed until after the leadership transition?

Pin Ru Tan: As you can see from the rates market, people have run out of patience. Rates have moved up by 70 basis points over the past 2-3 monthsbecause people think that we're not going to get any monetary or fiscal stimulus until after the Party Congress. Also, from the interest ratecurve you can see the rate cut expectations for the next 12 months. People thought that we would get as much as 100 basis points of ratecuts, but this expectation has come down to around 50 basis points. Feedback from our marketing trips suggests that investors expectmore monetary and fiscal stimulus after the Party Congress. That's when confidence could return and investors will be more likely torebuild their positions in the market.

Tony Shaw: Steven, the Chinese equity markets have performed very poorly over the last four months. With the economy s lowing, especially exports,what impact is the new leadership likely to have on the markets?

Point, counterpoint


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Steven Sun: Hopefully, a smooth handover of power will remove one of the key market concerns in the short term. That said, we think that asustainable rerating of the Chinese equity market will still require structural reforms. As we mentioned before, this w ill likely have to waituntil the third plenary session late next year. This also ties in with what Zhiming said earlier about the new leadership team needing time toget up to speed and to consolidate power.

In our report we looked at the impact the political cycle has on the economic cycle and stock market performance. Usually, in the secondyear after the new leadership takes over you will see credit growth and fixed asset investment activity picking up considerably. That's whywe expect the market to perform better in the second half of next year than the first half.

Tony Shaw: The market is hoping for a smooth handover and signs of reform going into 2013. Is it going to be that simple?

Zhiming Zhang: We think there are expectations that the Party Congress itself will remove some of the uncertainty that's weighing on the market. A largenumber of the top jobs will change hands and different opinions among the leadership mean there will be a lot of checks and balances.China is at a critical phase of transition, politically, economically and socially. We believe change will be slow and progressive.

Tony Shaw: Let's move on to macro policy. Pin Ru, some investors believe that additional monetary policy measures seem to be on hold until after theParty Congress. We've seen some incremental liquidity through money markets and open market operations over the past 2-3 months. Doyou envisage that this will continue up until the Party Congress?

Pin Ru Tan: After the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in May and then cut interest rates in June and July,everyone started thinking that the pace of policy easing was increasing. However, since then we have been disappointed. The consensusthinking now is that we will have to wait until the Party Congress is over before we can see more measures, monetary or fiscal. So whatthe PBoC has been doing is to carry on with reverse repos as this is within its own remit and does not require prior approval from the StateCouncil. This year we have seen a liquidity injection of about RMB500bn solely via reverse repos about RMB2.7trn were issued, of whichabout RMB2.2trn has matured. Two weeks ago we saw the introduction of 28-day reverse repos for the first time in 10 years. So all we cansay is that the PBoC is doing what it can within its boundaries to help support the market.

Tony Shaw: Steven, if these liquidity injections were to continue but we do not see a cut in RRR, what are the implications for share prices?

Steven Sun: Beijing has been relying on fiscal policy as it wants to keep inflation low remember that property prices have started to rise in some majorcities. For instance, over RMB1trn worth of infrastructure projects were approved in early September, which hopefully will help the

economy to stabilise. However, as we mentioned before, as far as market performance is concerned you may have to wait at least until t hesecond half of next year.

We think there is a disconnect between the relatively strong macro performance and the weak share prices. Even if the economy achievesa soft landing, as we expect, corporate profits have already landed hard. And if you look closer, you can see that the earnings quality hasdeteriorated in that companies cant generate enough free cash flow from operations to cover their capital expenditure. As a result, there isovercapacity, high inventory levels and a lack of pricing power.

This will take time to change because Chinese companies have little experience of how to manage economic downturns. It's time for themto rethink their business expansion strategy. We don't think there is any one single policy to solve the issue of stock market performance.We need fundamental changes at the corporate level.

Tony Shaw: Whats the outlook for the Chinese equity market for the immediate and intermediate future?

Steven Sun: You can see that valuations have been coming down quite a lot. The A-share market has dropped over 60%, almost 70% from the peak,which means a lot of the bad news is already in the price. So that's why we expect the market to remain range-bound in the coming

quarters.

Tony Shaw: Zhiming, how is the credit market likely to perform if liquidity injections continue as a result of PBoC open market operations?

Zhiming Zhang: Credit rates and spreads have been going up for the last 2-3 years basically because of a shortage of liquidity or rising funding costs.Having said that, despite the rate rises, for the remainder of this year and for next year corporate credit issuance, both in the public marketand private placements, will most likely remain the key issue.

Tony Shaw: With manufacturing activity remaining lacklustre due to weak business conditions, what's going to turn things around when we've got newpeople in charge but the same old problems?

Steven Sun: At the end of the day only the market can help to reset the supply and demand balance. In the A-share market essentially there has neverbeen a case of a company getting delisted, unlike in other markets. We believe you need to instil t hat kind of market discipline to help resetthe supply demand balance.

Tony Shaw: The local government debt situation was a big story in the first half of 2012. Everyone seems to be comfortable with the overall level of

central government sponsorship if the debt was to get out of hand. Pin Ru and Zhiming, can you update us on the municipal and localgovernment bond markets.


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Zhiming Zhang: Municipal issuance mostly takes place in the richest coastal provinces and municipalities like Guangdong, Shanghai and Shenzhen. It'syet to spread to less developed areas, where it will probably be more difficult to issue bonds. In terms of local government issuance, thevolume will likely continue to rise and may even get down to high quality county-level governments that's two notches below theprovincial level. Given the fiscal situation at various levels of governments, the lower you go the more challenging it becomes. The troubleis that eventually all local governments that issue bonds need to be able to pay for them, otherwise it would become a f iscal issue for thecentral government.

Pin Ru Tan: As Zhiming says, issuance has so far been limited to the best quality local governments. We think this will continue for now. We don't thinkthat it's going to spread to other governments. For example, earlier this year HSBCs c redit team in Asia wrote about a particular corporatebond that almost defaulted. It could be a similar story if other local governments were allowed to issue bonds. So for now we think thestatus quo will continue.


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Disclosure appendix

Analyst Certification

The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the

opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their

personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Steven Sun, Zhi Ming Zhang and Pin-ru Tan

Important disclosuresStock ratings and basis for financial analysis

HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which

depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations.

Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities

based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon;

and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative,

technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating.

HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below.

This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when

HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at

www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of thiswebsite.

HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's

existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating

systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research

report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views, investors

should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not

be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.

Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities

Stock ratings

HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis:

For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate,

regional market established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock

to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the

potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the

forecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months

(or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must be

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for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.

Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation of coverage, change of volatility

status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review,

expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarilytriggering a rating change.


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*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However,

stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past

month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating,

however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.

Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities

As of 27 September 2012, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows:

Overweight (Buy) 48% (27% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Neutral (Hold) 38% (26% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Underweight (Sell) 14% (22% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment

banking revenues.

For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that

company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.

* HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.

Additional disclosures

1 This report is dated as at 28 September 2012.2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 27 September 2012, unless otherwise indicated in the report.3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its

Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Researchoperate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrierprocedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or

price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.


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Asia Research Management

Head of Research, Asia PacificDilip Shahani 852 2822 4520

Head of Equity Research, Asia PacificDavid May 852 2996 6753

Deputy Head of Equity Research, Asia PacificHerald van der Linde 852 2996 6575

Global Management

CEO, Global ResearchStuart Parkinson 44 20 7991 6705

EquitiesChris Georgs 44 20 7991 6781

Economics

Stephen King 44 20 7991 6700

Fixed IncomeSteven Major 44 20 7991 5980

Currency Strategy

David Bloom 44 20 7991 5969

Climate Change Centre of ExcellenceNick Robins 44 20 7991 6778

Asia Research Marketing

Colin Davis 852 2996 6635Sunayana Daga 852 2822 4393Jenny Li 852 2822 8245

EconomicsQu Hongbin 852 2822 2025Frederic Neumann 852 2822 4556Leif Eskesen 65 6658 8962

Paul Bloxham 61 2925 52635Donna Kwok 852 2996 6621Trinh Nguyen 852 2996 6975Ronald Man 852 2996 6743Luke Hartigan 612 9255 2635Sun Junwei 86 10 5999 8234Ma Xiaoping 86 10 5999 8232Su Sian Lim 65 6658 8963Izumi Devalier 852 2822 1647

QuantitativeFreddie Siu 852 2996 6558Tom Zhou 852 2996 6557

Fixed Income Credit

Dilip Shahani 852 2822 4520Zhi Ming Zhang 852 2822 4523Devendran Mahendran 852 2822 4521Philip Wickham 65 6658 0618Keith Chan 852 2822 4522Louisa Lam 852 2822 4527Yi Hu 852 2996 6539Crystal Zhao 852 2996 6514Linus Fung 852 2822 4687Alex Zhang 852 2822 3232

Fixed Income RatesAndr de Silva, CFA 852 2822 2217Pin-ru Tan 852 2822 4665Grace Qiu 852 2822 6569Himanshu Malik 852 3941 7006

FX StrategyPaul Mackel 852 2996 6565Perry Kojodjojo 852 2996 6568Dominic Bunning 852 2822 1672

Climate Change StrategyWai-shin Chan 852 2822 4870

Equities

Hong KongEquity StrategyGarry Evans 852 2996 6916Herald van der Linde 852 2996 6575

Steven Sun 852 2822 4298Roger Xie 852 2822 4297Devendra Joshi 852 2996 6592

BanksTodd Dunivant 852 2996 6599York Pun 852 2822 4396Eric Mak 852 2996 6585

Conglomerates & TransportkMark Webb 852 2996 6574Parash Jain 852 2996 6717Shishir Singh 852 2822 4292Stephen Wan 852 2996 6566Dandan Yu 852 2822 4202Rajani Khetan 852 3941 0830

Construction & EngineeringAnderson Chow 852 2996 6669Elaine Lam 852 2822 4398

Carson Ng 852 2822 4397Walden Shing 852 2996 6751Zhe Wei Sim 852 2996 6602

ConsumerErwan Rambourg 852 2996 6572Chris Zee 852 2822 2912Christopher Leung 852 2996 6531Lina Yan 852 2822 4344Catherine Chao 852 2996 6570Walden Shing 852 2996 6751

Healthcare

Nam Park 852 2996 6591Carolyn Poon 852 2996 6586

InsuranceJames Garner 852 2822 4321Michael Chang 852 2996 6555Grace Zhou 852 2822 3053

Metals & Mining

Simon Francis 852 2996 6620Thomas Zhu 852 2822 4325Chris Chen 852 2822 4277

Oil & Gas / ChemicalsThomas Hilboldt 852 2822 2922Dennis Yoo 852 2996 6917Kevin Lian 852 2822 4337SI Tingting 852 2822 4337

Real Estate

Derek Kwong 852 2996 6629Michelle Kwok 852 2996 6918Phillip Zhong 852 2996 6535Perveen Wong 852 2996 6571

Stanley Cheung 852 2996 6590

TechnologySteven Pelayo 852 2822 4391

TelecomsTucker Grinnan 852 2822 4686Neale Anderson 852 2996 6716Chi Tsang 852 2822 2590Eric Chen 852 2822 3165

UtilitiesJenny Cosgrove 852 2996 6619Gloria Ho 852 2996 6941Summer Y Y Huang 852 2996 6976

Singapore

IndustrialsNeel Sinha 65 6658 0606

Head of Research, SingaporeTarun Bhatnagar 65 6658 0614

Banks

Kar Weng Loo 65 6658 0621Xiushi Cai 65 6658 0617

Commodities

Thilan A Wickramasinghe 65 6658 0609

Consumer

Sean Monaghan 65 6658 0610Permada (Mada) Darmono 65 6658 0613

Real Estate

Pratik Burman Ray 65 6658 0611David Choo 65 6658 0612

TelecomsLuis Hilado 65 6658 0607Rajesh Raman 65 6658 0608

Transport and InfrastructureValerie Law 65 6658 0616

Taiwan

TechnologyJenny Lai 8862 6631 2860Head of Research, Taiwan

Yolanda Wang 8862 6631 2867Tse-Yong Yao 8862 6631 2861Joyce Chen 8862 6631 2862Jerry Tsai 8862 6631 2863Carrie Liu 8862 6631 2864

Banks

Bruce Warden 8862 6631 2868

Non-tech

Abel Lee 8862 6631 2866

Korea

Industrials

Brian Cho 822 3706 8750Head of Research, Korea

Jinil Yoon 822 3706 8763Paul Choi 822 3706 8758

Banks

Kathy Park 822 3706 8755Sojung Park 822 3706 8756

Consumer, Brands and RetailKaren Choi 822 3706 8781

TMTBrian Sohn 822 3706 8765So-Yun Shin 822 3706 8774Howon Rim 822 3706 8167Ricky Seo 822 37068777Hongsik Jo 822 3706 8774

Insurance

Sinyoung Park 822 3706 8770

India

Jitendra Sriram 91 22 2268 1271Head of Research, India

BanksSachin Sheth 91 22 2268 1224Tejas Mehta 91 22 2268 1243

ConsumerAmit Sachdeva 91 22 2268 1240

HealthcareGirish Bakhru 91 22 2268 1638

Industrials

Arun K Singh 91 22 2268 1778Rahul Garg 91 22 2268 1245

IT Services/Autos

Yogesh Aggarwal 91 22 2268 1246

Metals & MiningJigar Mistry, CFA 91 22 2268 1079

Oil & Gas / ChemicalsKumar Manish 91 22 2268 1238Puneet Gulati 91 22 2268 1235

Real Estate

Ashutosh Narkar 91 22 2268 1474

TelecomsRajiv Sharma 91 22 2268 1239

Asia Research Team

18th natl congress hsbc

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