A M O S T C R I T I C A L S U B J E C T

Civilization vs. the Oil Age

Excerpts from the new book

The End of Fossil Energy and Per Capita Oil (FIFTH EDITION)

This book is available directly from the author: John Howe by email at: howe@megalink.net. And at our website www.solarcarandtractor.com

1.5 Hour PowerPoint Presentation

1

Oil is a Most Important Natural Resource and Absolutely Fundamental to Industrialized Civilization

Oil is finite and non-renewable.

Oil provides the basic energy source for:

•  food for seven billion people. • most of the energy for modern transportation. •  support of other energy sources. •  raw materials for plastics and lubricants.

2

World Per Capita Oil Use

Barrels per person per year 0 5 10 15 20 25

U.S. Gasoline Only*

U.S.

All Western Europe

Russia

World Average

China

Oil

Gasoline

* In the U.S. we consume more gasoline (mostly for transportation) than other countries consume in total combined oil.

3

World Annual Oil Use

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

U.S. (gasoline only)

China

Western Europe

U.S.**

World*

Oil Gasoline

Billion barrels

* The world uses one billion barrels of oil every 11 days. ** In the U.S. we use approximately ¼ of the world total oil consumption.

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

The World Oil Age B

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r ye

ar

In the span of two lifetimes we will have consumed almost all of the oil reserves in the world.

I N T W O 8 0 Y E A R L I F E T I M E S

Oil industry forecasts

Peak extraction rate

Typical finite resource decline rate (Hubbert’s bell shaped curve)

1.2 trillion barrels already used in 80 years

1.2 trillion barrels remaining 80 years

2015

5

The U.S. Oil Age

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

Bill

ion

barr

els

per

year

U.S. consumption rate grew while our extraction rates (including fracking and nonconventional) remained relatively the same.

I N T W O 8 0 Y E A R L I F E T I M E S

“Fracking” and other expensive non-conventional sources

2015

Consumption

Extraction

6

World Population Growth

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

The present world population growth rate is 1.8 children per female. Even if we reduce the growth rate to 1 child per female we still have a food gap between the

global availabity of oil and the number of people who need it to survive.

Bill

ions

of p

eopl

e

I N T W O 8 0 Y E A R L I F E T I M E S

0 child per female

1 child per female

2 child per female

food gap

Bill

ions

of b

arre

ls o

f oil

per

year

35

25

15

5 2015

oil extraction rate

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Focus on U.S. Gasoline Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

Bill

ion

barr

els

per

year

In the U.S. we consume as much gasoline as China’s total oil consumption.

U.S gasoline All Western Europe All China oil

8

Time Remaining in the Oil Age

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

U.S. Oil Age

U.S. Oil Age

Total World Oil Age

7 years left at the present consumption rate

Years

(½ from U.S. and ½ from rest of world, as now)

(All from U.S.)

49 billion barrels left in U.S. (optimistic) Divided by 7 billion barrels per year Equals 7 years

9

Percent of All World Energy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Wind and solar

Biofuel

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas*

Coal*

Oil*

* Oil, coal, and natural gas are finite and contribute to elevated levels of greenhouse gas.

Percent (%)

Depend on oil and non-renewable metals

Cannot be increased

Finite energy sources

Renewable energy sources

10

U.S. Liquid Fuel Consumption

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Everything else**

Jet fuel

Distillate*

Gasoline

Total

* Diesel and heating oil. ** Including support of other energy sources.

Billion barrels per year

11

The Case for 50% Gasoline Rationing

0 1 2 3 4

All Russia oil

All Japan oil

All China oil

50% reduction in use

All gasoline use

Compared to:

Billion barrels per year

12

Other Positives for Gasoline Rationing

•  Consumption of 400 million gallons per day. 50% reduction to 200 million gallons per day.

•  200 million gallons per day x $3 per gallon = $600 million per day or $0.22 trillion per year back into economy.

•  Gasoline rationing would encourage mass transportation, electric cars, and bicycles.

•  Gasoline rationing would lower the cost of oil for other needs.

•  Gasoline rationing electronic swipe cards could be saved or sold.

13

Gasoline Rationing vs. all CO2 Sources

World total: 36 billion metric tons per year 1/3 from China: 10.5 billion tons

1/7 from U.S.: 5.3 billion tons U.S. coal: 1.7 billion tons

U.S. natural gas: 1.4 billion tons U.S. liquid fuels: 2.2 billion tons

(including U.S. gasoline 1.1 billion tons)

50% gas rationing reduction = 0.5 billion metric tons per year

= 5% of all China’s or 10% of all U.S. CO2 emissions

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Other Directly Related Issues

Chapter 3 •  A call for personal involvement •  Educate yourself, see Bibliography, websites •  Join mass movements •  Get into gardening •  Have a stand-alone solar survival system Chapter 5 •  A solar electric future, potential and limitations:

cars, tractors, airplanes?? 18 wheelers?? •  Battery storage, weight, recycling?? •  Cost and hazards of lithium

The following chapters refer to the book The End of Fossil Energy and Per Capita Oil

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Chapter 6 •  Population and immigration demographics Chapter 8 •  Food availability on world, national, local, and personal scales Chapter 9 •  Localization, transition, resilience movements Chapter 10 •  The end of economic growth Chapter 11 •  The desparate need for decisive leadership •  Autocracy vs. democracy? (Plato’s “philosopher king”)

Other Directly Related Issues (continued) 16

Conclusions

• Our civilization is at the tipping point. •  Seriously question the future of a child born today. •  Climate change is a longer-term and much less

serious problem. •  Please help network these thoughts.

John Howe www.solarcarandtractor.com You tube.com/Howe Triple Crisis

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