11

INDONESIA ELECTRICITYSUPPLY CHALLENGES:TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN

2010-2019

PT PLN (PERSERO)

22

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019

1. The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)

2. The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an average population growth of 1.17%.

It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track program would have been already in operation.

3. Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by the end of 2019.

4. DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been taken into account.

33

JAVA-BALI SYSTEM

DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019

IB : 10.2%

21 TWh

54 TWh

IT : 10,6%

11 TWh28 TWh

JB : 8,97%

115 TWh

252 TWh

Electricity Demand growth average 9.3%/year

NAD72,7%NAD

72,7%Sumut75,5%Sumut75,5%

Sumbar

67,6%

Sumbar

67,6%

Riau + Kepri44,7%

Riau + Kepri44,7%

Babel48,4%Babel48,4%

Lampung47,1%

Lampung47,1%

Jabar+Banten

64,95%

Jabar+Banten

64,95%

Jateng+Yogya

70,2%

Jateng+Yogya

70,2%

Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu

50,3%

Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu

50,3%

Jatim61,6%Jatim61,6%

Bali76,2%Bali

76,2%

NTB29,9%NTB

29,9%NTT

21,7%NTT

21,7%

Kalbar49,5%Kalbar49,5%

Kalselteng

56,3%

Kalselteng

56,3%

Kaltim53,9%Kaltim53,9%

Sulutenggo

51,2%

Sulutenggo

51,2%

Sulteng

47,64%

Sulteng

47,64%

Sulselrabar55,8%

Sulselrabar55,8%

Maluku53,5%

Maluku53,5%

Papua + Irjabar27,8%

Papua + Irjabar27,8%

Category :Category :

> 60 %

41 - 60 %

20 - 40 %

INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63%

55

POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING

1. Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as soon as more effcient plants are available.

2. Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by looking for generation configuration that have minimum system costs.

3. However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior to optimisation process.

4. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as reliability criteria during planning process.

The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are not taken into account.

66

5. Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet for outside Java – Bali system gas-fired power plants are considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply.

6. Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no local primary energy resource available.

7. Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical would be introduced into the Java-Bali system.

8. PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development.

POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING

7

1,054

3,553

5,141

1,479

3,178

1,440 1,738 1,681

3,425

4,699 5,248

117

413

1,258

2,896

2,763

3,329 2,282

3,461

2,238

936

890

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

IPP

PLN

Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year

GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN

8

Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa)

1. PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed 21March2007

2. PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007

3. PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 21March2007

4. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract Signed 7August2007

5. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed 12March2007

6. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus2007

7. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure, Contract Signed 7August2007

8. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7August2007

9. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 25April2008

10. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012

9

Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)

1. PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons. Guangdong+Nintec+Bagus Karya2. PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons. Shangdong+Rekadaya Elektrika3. PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro4. PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong

Machinery+Modaco+Kelsri+Angkasa Buana

5. PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead Maxitherm6. PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri7. PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute+Adhi

Karya

8. PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons. Truba,+China Shanghai Group9. PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Poeser Indonesia10. PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi Rama Nusantara+Altons11. PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons. Guangdong Machinery+Wijaya Karya12. PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons. Chengda+Wijaya Karya

13. PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW14. PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, Guandong+Modaco Enersys+Angkasa Buana Cipta15. PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia16. PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika17. PLTU 2 NTT-Kupang, 2x16,5MW, Shandong Mavhinery+Poeser Indonesia

10

Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)

18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi

19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya

20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika

21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya

22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika

23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead Maxitherm

Fast Track Program Phase 2

• More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be included in the program.

The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro 12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%.

The capacity of the projects will be as follows:

Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW.

Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW.

Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.

The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of PLN’s project and 6,314 MW of IPP project.

The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future demand by the year 2011-2012, however the feasibility of the project will subject to gas supply availability.

The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to replace the role of oil fired plants.

Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make immediate geothermal IPP procurement.

Fast Track Program Phase 2

Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2

REGIONSteam

Coal PP (MW)

Combined Cycle PP

(MW)

Geo PP (MW)

Hydro PP(MW)

Total (MW)

JAVA-BALI - 1.200 2.137 1.000 4.337

OUTSIDE JAVA-BALI

2.616 240 2.596 174 5.626

TOTAL2.616

(26%)

1.440

(14%)4.733 (48%)

1.174 (12%)

9.963

(100%)

SUMATERA• PLTA : 174 MW• PLTP : 2285 MW• PLTU : 1100 MW• PLTGU : 120 MW

Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2

KALIMANTAN• PLTU : 840 MW• PLTGU : 120 MW

SULAWESI• PLTP : 195 MW• PLTU : 418 MW

MALUKU• PLTP : 40 MW• PLTU : 44 MW

PAPUA• PLTU : 114

MWNTT

• PLTP : 46 MW

• PLTU : 30 MW

NTB• PLTP :30

MW• PLTU :70

MW

JAMALI• PLTP : 2.137 MW• PLTU : 0 MW• PLTGU : 1.200 MW• PLTA : 1.000 MW

TOTAL• PLTA : 1174 MW• PLTP : 4733 MW• PLTU : 2616 MW• PLTGU : 1440 MW

TOTAL : 9963 MW

Investment of Fast Track Program Phase 2

Capacity (MW)

Investment (Million USD)

Capacity (MW)

Investment (Million USD)

Steam Coal PP 380 549 2,236 3,231

Combined Cycle PP 1,440 1,210 - -

Geothermal PP 655 917 4,078 10,195

Hydro PP 1,174 1,148 - -

Total 3,649 3,824 6,314 13,426

PLN IPP

Plant

1616

TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNINGJAVA-BALI 2008-2018

KEBUTUHAN TRANSMISI JAWA-BALI 2008-2018Satuan kms

TRANSMISI 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total

500 kV AC 159 127 4 329 920 606 444 100 60 340 3,089

500 kV DC 350 350

150 kV 564 3,497 1,403 1,120 727 482 560 282 644 276 12 9,567

70 kV 14 80 10 22 126

TOTAL 578 3,735 1,541 1,146 1,056 1,402 1,166 726 1,094 336 352 13,132

KEBUTUHAN TRAFO JAWA-BALI 2008-2018Satuan MVA

TRAFO 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total

500/150 kV 1,666 4,666 3,000 2,000 1,000 4,000 3,500 3,000 6,000 1,000 29,832

150/70 kV 160 490 160 100 910

150/20 kV 1,820 4,800 7,920 4,036 3,570 3,480 3,330 3,690 5,370 5,160 1,980 45,156

70/20 kV 60 460 190 90 90 80 80 150 190 130 100 1,620

TOTAL 3,706 10,416 11,270 6,126 4,660 7,560 6,910 6,840 11,560 5,290 3,180 77,518

17

Project Name COD Financing Plan

Transmisi 275 kV Sumatera (Payakumbuh – Padangsidempuan)

2012 Loan JICA

Transmisi 275 kV Rengat – Garuda Sakti (220 km)

2014 unallocated

Transmisi Sumatera-Jawa ± 500 kV HVDC 2016 USD 2,3 milyar, Loan JICA

Jawa-Bali Crossing 500 kV HVAC 2015 USD 328 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB

Interkoneksi Kalbar-Serawak 275 kV HVAC 2012 USD 101 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB

Interkoneksi Sumatera-Malaysia ± 250 kV HVDC

2015 USD 353 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB/JICA

Perkuatan Transmisi Sistem Jakarta dan Bali 2011 2012

USD 420 juta, KE

Perkuatan Transmisi Kota-Kota Besar di Jawa

2012 USD 250 juta, IBRD

Transmisi 500 kV AC Tj Jati - Ungaran – Pemalang – Mandirancan – Indramayu (±500 km)

2015 USD 300 juta, unallocated

DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN

18

ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY UP TO 2019:•MV : 181,000KMS 16,500 KMS/YEAR•LV : 249,500KMS 22,700 KMS/YEAR•DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER : 35,000 MVA 3,200 MVA/YEAR•ADDITIONAL COSTUMER : 27,4 MILION 2,5 MIO/YEAR

PLN INVESTMENT

19

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

8,000.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Juta USD INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 64,7 BILLION, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBISHMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

Column1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 JumlahPembangkit 3,777.0 3,495.3 3,188.3 2,851.1 3,143.0 2,427.4 2,854.7 3,548.0 4,270.4 4,304.7 4,721.4 38,581.2 Transmisi 1,065.8 1,985.9 1,939.7 1,297.4 1,145.7 1,521.7 2,072.9 1,227.4 592.2 719.7 851.6 14,419.9 Distribusi 598.2 774.4 1,080.4 1,006.8 947.5 987.1 1,165.6 1,185.9 1,300.2 1,337.7 1,304.4 11,688.3 Total Investasi 5,441.0 6,255.6 6,208.4 5,155.3 5,236.1 4,936.1 6,093.3 5,961.3 6,162.8 6,362.1 6,877.4 64,689.4

PLN + IPP INVESTMENT

20

INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 83,0 BILLION OR USD 7,6 BILLION PER YEAR, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBISMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

8,000.0

9,000.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Juta USD

Column1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 JumlahPembangkit 4,858.0 5,100.2 5,099.0 5,369.2 5,810.6 5,061.4 4,901.0 5,194.7 5,483.1 5,026.0 4,987.8 56,891.0 Transmisi 1,065.8 1,985.9 1,939.7 1,297.4 1,145.7 1,521.7 2,072.9 1,227.4 592.2 719.7 851.6 14,419.9 Distribusi 598.2 774.4 1,080.4 1,006.8 947.5 987.1 1,165.6 1,185.9 1,300.2 1,337.7 1,304.4 11,688.3 Total Investasi 6,522.0 7,860.5 8,119.1 7,673.4 7,903.8 7,570.2 8,139.6 7,608.0 7,375.5 7,083.4 7,143.8 82,999.2

PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM

21

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

PLNOn-going dan Committed Project

Muara Karang PLTGU 500 194

Muara Tawar Blok #5 PLTGU 234

Priok Extension PLTGU 500 243

Suralaya #8 PLTU 625

Labuan PLTU 300 300

Teluk Naga/Lontar PLTU 945

Pelabuhan Ratu PLTU 1,050

Indramayu PLTU 990

Rembang PLTU 630

Pacitan PLTU 630

Paiton Baru PLTU 660

Tj. Awar-awar PLTU 700

Cilacap Baru / Adipala PLTU 660

Sub Total On-going & Committed 800 3,399 3,359 243 - 1,360 - - - - -

Rencana

Upper Cisokan PS PLTA 500 500

Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 PLTGU 150 700 350

Jawa Barat (LNG Terminal) PLTGU 1,500 750

PLTGU Baru PLTGU 1,500

PLTG Baru PLTG 400 600 800

PLTU Baru PLTU 1,000 1,000 3,000

Tangkuban Perahu 1 PLTP 110

Kamojang PLTP 60 40

Kesamben PLTA 37

Kalikonto-2 PLTA 62

Matenggeng PS PLTA 443 443

Grindulu PS PLTA 500 500

Sub Total Rencana - - 150 - 760 650 1,500 1,412 2,380 3,793 4,300

Total PLN 800 3,399 3,509 243 760 2,010 1,500 1,412 2,380 3,793 4,300

PROYEK

IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM

22

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

IPP

On-going dan Committed Project

Kamojang #4 PLTP

Darajat #3 PLTP

Wayang Windu PLTP 110

Bekasi Power PLTGU 130

Cikarang Listrindo PLTGU 100 50

Cirebon PLTU 660

Paiton #3-4 Exp PLTU 815

Tanjung Jati B Exp PLTU 1,320

Celukan Bawang PLTU 130 250

Sub Total On-going & Committed 110 230 710 2,265 250 - - - Rencana

Banten PLTU 660

Madura (1x400 MW) PLTU 400

Bali Timur PLTU 200

Sumatera Mulut Tambang PLTU 1,200

PLTU Jawa Tengah (Infrastruktur) PLTU 1,000 1,000

PLTP Percepatan Tahap 2 IPP PLTP - - - 175 365 785 445 250

Rajamandala PLTA 47

Jatigede PLTA 110

Sub Total Rencana - - - 175 565 1,942 1,845 2,110

Total IPP 110 230 710 2,440 815 1,942 1,845 2,110

Total Tambahan 910 3,629 4,219 2,683 1,575 3,952 3,345 3,522

TOTAL KAPASITAS SISTEM MW 22,796 26,030 30,209 32,816 34,391 38,343 41,688 45,210

RESERVE MARGIN % 29 34 41 39 33 36 35 35

PROYEK

23

For the next 10 years

• The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)

• Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects

• Development of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW by 2018

• Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA for all voltage levels.

• Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer connections.

SUMMARY

24

• Total investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP).

• Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$ 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion.

SUMMARY

2525

Some strategic generation projects:

• CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned in 2011-2012.

• Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total capacity of 11,355 MW year 2011-2014 (this figure might change due to recent government’s will to promote more geothernal).

• Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB)

• CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW in 2014-2015.

• CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in 2016-2017 (transferred to Java Bali system)

• CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 2015-2017.

SUMMARY

2626

Some strategic transmission projects:

• HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016.

• Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010

• Batam – Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010

• 275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan – Serawak in 2011

• 500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in 2015

SUMMARY

2727

PT PLN (PERSERO)