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  1. 1. CIP progress report Athanasios Petsakos Guy Hareau International Potato Center (CIP) 25-28 May 2015 Rome, Italy Global Futures & Strategic Foresight extended team meeting
  2. 2. Training IMPACT training (January Moscow) Gridded crop modeling training (April ICRISAT) DSSAT training (May University of Georgia, Griffin)
  3. 3. Activities since the last meeting Use of IMPACT for the assessment of new technologies: Comparison with RTB priority setting exercise IPR review for (sweet-) potatoes Analyze past growth rates and estimate future ones Focus on South Asia (focus changed after the latest discussions) Introducing biotic stresses in IMPACT Still exploring
  4. 4. IMPACT3 FOR PRIORITY ASSESSMENT Alternative model uses
  5. 5. Priority assessment at CIP Some background: In 2014, CIP conducted a priority assessment study for RTB on potato (and sweetpotato) technologies: Hareau, G., Kleinwechter, U., Pradel, W., Suarez, V., Okello, J., Vikraman, S. (2014). Strategic Assessment of Research Priorities for Potato. CGIAR Research program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB). RTB Working Paper 2014-8. Lima, Peru. Available online at: www.rtb.cgiar.org Strong interest from the RTB independent evaluation team on how the results of ex-ante priority setting work are used to define the RTB research portfolio. Final publication of RTB priority setting working papers will acknowledge cross-CRP collaboration (PIM, CCAFS).
  6. 6. IMPACT for priority assessment Questions asked: What changes are needed to IMPACT if we want to use it for priority assessment? What changes are needed to IMPACT and CIPs surplus model to create a common framework for comparison? How do IMPACT results compare with those from the surplus model?
  7. 7. Comparison challenges IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus model Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods Solution 1: Use Rickys modeling system (DSSAT)** Solution 2: Rewrite the code Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anyway? Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT Solution 1: Rewrite the code Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT
  8. 8. Comparison challenges IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus model Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods Solution 1: Use Rickys modeling system (DSSAT)** Solution 2: Rewrite the code Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anyway? Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT Solution 1: Rewrite the code Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT
  9. 9. Comparison challenges IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus model Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods Solution 1: Use Rickys modeling system (DSSAT)** Solution 2: Rewrite the code Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anyway? Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT Solution 1: Rewrite the code Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT
  10. 10. IPR VALIDATION AND CALIBRATION The example of China
  11. 11. The basics Rationale: IMPACT base year is 2005 but we are in 2015 Before projecting to 2050, we must establish a valid initial point !!! Question : Is adjusting yield growth rates sufficient?
  12. 12. China: Potato yields 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Yields(t/ha) Years Reference (FAO)
  13. 13. China: Potato yields 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Yields(t/ha) Years Reference (FAO)
  14. 14. China: Potato yields 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Yields(t/ha) Years IMPACT3 Default
  15. 15. China: Potato yields 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Yields(t/ha) Years Reference (FAO) IMPACT3 Default
  16. 16. China: Total production 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Production(Mt) Years Reference (FAO) IMPACT3 Default
  17. 17. China: Potato harvested area 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 HarvestedArea(.000ha) Years Reference (FAO) IMPACT3 Default
  18. 18. BIOTIC CROP STRESS IN IMPACT A preliminary skirmish
  19. 19. Thoughts on pests and diseases modeling Discussed in Florida (Feb2014) CIPs pest modeling team focuses on the tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta Discussions to understand what is being modeled and what outputs are available: We need to understand what technologies are available Who is the end user of the technologies How much does it cost How all this translates in yield shifts
  20. 20. Next steps and discussion Must work with the IMPACT team to standardize a calibration procedure Exogenous land growth rates important Scheduled: Complete the activities described Not in workplan but interesting: Conduct regional impact assessments to obtain better adoption thresholds for some countries (also discussed in ReMIP/AgMIP)
  21. 21. Literature on potato IPRs 1. Scott, G. J., Rosegrant, M. W., & Ringler, C. (2000). Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020. Food Policy, 25(5), 561597. 2. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2011). Growth rates for potato in India and their implications for industry. Potato Journal, 38(2), 100112. 3. Scott, G. J. (2011). Growth Rates for Potatoes in Latin America in Comparative Perspective: 1961-07. American Journal of Potato Research, 88, 143152. 4. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2012a). Limits to Growth or Growth to the Limits? Trends and Projections for Potatoes in China and Their Implications for Industry. Potato Research, 55, 135156. 5. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2012b). The Rise of Asia as the Center of Global Potato Production and Some Implications for Industry. Potato Journal, 39(1), 122. 6. Scott, G. J., Labarta, R., & Suarez, V. (2013). Booms, Busts, and Emerging Markets for Potatoes in East and Central Africa1961-2010. Potato Research, 56, 205236. 7. Article from Ulrich and G. Scott on LAC Under revision
  22. 22. THANK YOU