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Setting the stage

International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators

14 – 16 December 2009 Scheveningen, The Netherlands

International coordinated response to economic and financial crisis

Global statistical response to economic and financial crisis

International seminars organised by United Nations Statistics Division and Eurostat in partnership with Statistics Canada (May 2009) and Statistics Netherlands (December 2009)

Expected outcomes of the Scheveningen seminar

Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (IA Group)

Outline of presentation

International coordinated response The G20 Summit of 2 April, 2009 called for:

the United Nations, working with other global institutions, to establish an effective mechanism to monitor the impact of the crisis on the poorest and most vulnerable

the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Financial Stability Board (FSB) to explore information gaps and provide appropriate proposals for strengthening data collection.

International coordinated response the United Nations System Chief Executives Board

for Coordination (CEB) at its April 2009 meeting in Paris decided to “… urgently establish an United Nations system-wide vulnerability monitoring and alert mechanism to track developments, and report on the political, economic, social and environmental dimensions of the crisis”.

the Secretary-General initiated activities to establish an UN system-wide Global Impact and Vulnerability Alert System (GIVAS) - consisting of a Global Impact and Vulnerability Data Platform and a series of Global Alert Products.

Global statistical response

Series of meetings by statistical community

◦ High Level Forum on the Long term Development of the SNA held under the aegis of the Intersecretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) at the World Bank, Washington DC, in November 2008

◦ High Level Forum on Globalization and Global Crisis, United Nations, New York in February 2009

◦ Informal Meeting on the Official Statistics and the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis, United Nations, New York in February 2009

Findings of the series of high level statistical meetings:◦ System of National Accounts 2008 was

recognized as the overarching framework for economic statistics.

◦ 2008 update of the 1993 SNA incorporates measurement issues arising from the financial crises during the 1990s and early years of new millennium.

◦ Extended scope of the 2008 SNA allows for the measurement and classification of present government and central bank interventions and the latest innovations in financial instruments and financial institutional sectors.

Global statistical response

Global statistical response a lack of macroeconomic, sectoral and market

information was not considered the cause of the recession.

develop a work programme to meet the need of policy makers for the early detection of turning points of financial and economic trends

identify and remedy data gaps that the crisis has revealed

improve the availability, periodicity and timeliness high frequency statistics in accessible and analytically useful formats

a public on-line website disseminating a set of economic and financial time series for a group of systemic countries, with links to relevant websites

International seminars on high frequency statistics The UNSD/DESA in cooperation with Eurostat and

Statistics Canada organised:

International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology, and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends in Ottawa from 27 to 29 May 2009 (Ottawa Seminar).

Purpose: the availability and international comparability of a

data template of high frequency statistics the communication strategy of such estimates the development of a set of analytical indicators on

the performance of the real economy and the financial markets for effective monitoring.

International seminars on high frequency statistics Outcome of the Ottawa seminar:

support for an international data template for high frequency statistics to monitor economic activity and detecting changes

determine its relevance and feasibility in terms of availability, periodicity, timeliness and dissemination through global baseline assessment

re-arrange the data template in different tiers based on analysis of global assessment

the high frequency statistics for individual countries should be complemented by analytical indicators and time series of world and regional aggregates for those high frequency statistics which are sufficiently comparable.

International seminars on high frequency statistics

Outcome of the Ottawa seminar:

develop a glossary of terms and definitions around high frequency statistics (covering terms like nowcast, forecast, flash, rapid and first estimate, etc.)

clarify the need to develop new manuals or update existing handbooks and guidelines on GDP flash estimates, and economic sentiment surveys and composite indicators

determine how to better communicate and disseminate data on the movement of the business cycles and trend developments

International seminars on high frequency statistics

Way forward to address the identified issues in Ottawa:

International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators hosted by Statistics Netherlands and co-organised by UNSD, Eurostat and Statistics Netherlands

International seminars on high frequency statistics Agenda of the Scheveningen meeting

Session 3 The role of the sentiment indicators session organiser: Gyorgy Gyomai, OECD

Session 4 The role of composite indicators session organiser: Ataman Ozyildirim, US Conference Board

Session 5 Flash estimates of GDP session organiser Pieter Everaers, Eurostat

Session 6 Analytical framework session organiser Rob Vos, DPAD/DESA

Session 7 Global assessment on data template and related analytical indicator set and break out sessions

Session 8 Communication and dissemination session organiser Soong Sup Lee, World Bank

Session 9 Concluding session and wrap up

International seminars on high frequency statistics Expected outcomes from Scheveningen meeting

Plan of actions:◦ advancing GDP flash estimates◦ advancing use of sentiment indicators◦ advancing the use of composite indicators◦ advancing IT tools for communication and

dissemination◦ advancing multi-tier data template and analytical data

set Components of plan of actions

◦ International coordination: collaborating institutions and countries

◦ Methodological development◦ Statistical capacity building

Third International Seminar on High Frequency Statistics in fall 2010

Inter Agency Group on Economic and Financial Crisis The IAG is chaired by the International Monetary

Fund and comprises of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European Central Bank (ECB), Eurostat, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United Nations and the World Bank

the IAG launched the Principal Global Indicators (PGI) website.

the website is intended to reflect the needs of users in monitoring economic and financial trends for the G20 economies, as systemically important countries

a second version of the Principal Global Indicators is to be launched soon

drawn on the experience in Europe with the PEEI and the UN data template for high frequency statistics.

Inter Agency Group on Economic and Financial Crisis identified data gaps are addressed:

Financial accounts and balance sheets of non-bank financial corporations sector, non-financial corporations and household sectors

Property prices Issues relating the credit transfer instruments Issues relating large and complex

systemically important financial institutions.

Thank you