1 risk analysis oil and chemical spills in danish waters ... · cowi ywork started april 2006 and...

Risk analysis Oil and chemical spills in Danish WatersHELCOM Response Group 18. Apr. 2007

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118 apr 07

#Risk analysisOil and chemical pollution in Danish waters

Risk analysis

Oil and chemical pollution in Danish waters

Jørgen Kampmann, COWI

Carsten Jürgensen, COWI

218 apr 07


Background

The auditors of public accounts appointed by the Danish Parliament (Folketinget) recommended that a new risk analysis of oil and chemical spills be prepared.

The Ministry of Defence Denmark intends to prepare a plan for development of the emergency forces in Danish water on the basis of a risk analysis

EU request for tenders for such risk analysis was won by COWI

Work started April 2006 and was completed March 2007

The resulting reports (in Danish with English summary) will be published in relation to a symposium on marine environment in Copenhagen 21. May 2007

318 apr 07


Main requirements to the risk analysis

The risk analysis shall be a planning tool:

– Magnitude of risk and distribution on different parts of Danish waters, different types of spills etc. shall be described

– Risk analysis model to be constructed such that in the future, it will be possible to model the effects of different locations andconfigurations of the emergency services

The actual configuration of the emergency services is not to be considered. Instead an assumed generic model of the emergency response is used

The development until 2020 shall be modelled:

– today (1. July 2005 to 30. June 2006)

– 2010

– 2015

– 2020

418 apr 07


Illustration of risk of oil and chemical pollution

Frequency of spills

Consequence of spills

RiskSpill of oil and

chemicalsActivities in

Danish waters

Emergency response to spills

Risk reduction measures

518 apr 07


Relationship between spill effect and damage to the marine environment

Spill of oil and chemicals

Spreading and spill effect

Vulnerability Index

Damage to environment = spill effect X vulnerability index

618 apr 07


Approach for the risk analysis


Ship traffic and other ship activities

Types and quantities of oil and chemicals

Identification of sources of

spills

Spill scenarios:- cause- type of spill- magnitude- location

Spill effect

Vulne-rability

Emergency response to spills

Spill frequency

Risk of spill effect

Risk of damage to

environment


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Approach for the risk analysis Modelling of the future

Prognosis for ship traffic

Future risk reduction

Identification of sources of spills


Spill effect

VulnerabilityEmergency

response to spills


Ship traffic and other

ship activities

Types and quantities of

oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment

818 apr 07


Ship traffic today = 1. July 2005 - 30. June 2006

AIS-data =>Intensity of ship traffic

918 apr 07


Ship traffic:Route net

AIS-signals are allocated to legs of the route net

Ship size and type found from Lloyd's

1018 apr 07


Ship traffic todayExample: All tankers

1118 apr 07


Transport of oil and chemicals in Danish waters

Classification of oil and chemicals

Description of the quantities onboard the ships:

– Cargo in bulk: Tankers, bulk carriers

– Cargo in packaged form: Container, general cargo, RO-RO, ferries

Sources:

– Reporting to SHIPPOS. Information on cargo incl. ballast for

Ships ≥ 20.000 GT

Ships with draught ≥ 11 m

Loaded oil, gas and chemical tankers ≥ 1.600 GT

Data from 1. May. to 21. Aug. 2006 used.

– HazMat. Ships with dangerous or polluting cargo to/from Danish harbours

1218 apr 07


Classification of oil and chemicals

Behaviour when spilled to the sea:

– Evaporating

– Floating

– Malfloating

– Soluble

– Sinking

Reacting: According to the result of the reaction

Hazard to the environment: MARPOL Annex II, A, B, C, D or "other"

Hazard to the personnel of the emergency services:

– Health

– Fire


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Classification Hazard to environment, health and fire hazard

General

Hazard toenvironment:

Health andfire hazard:

Not hazardous

Less hazardous

Most hazardous

Other

MARPOL Annex II: C and D. Oil

MARPOL Annex II: A and B

More hazardous than crude oil

1418 apr 07


Classification of chemicals

14/ BentonitNot relevant

13/ MolassesNot relevant

12/ TarNot relevant

Sinking

11/ MethanolNot relevant

10/ MTBENot relevant

9/ AcrylonitrilNot relevantB

8/ Acetone cyanohydrinNot relevantASoluble andreacting and then soluble

7/ Toluene

5/ BenzeneFloating

1Not relevantEvaporating

Cargo group number/example chemical

FireHealthEnvir-onment

Behaviour when spilled to sea

1518 apr 07


Classification of oil

22/ gasolineFloating

21/ dieselFloating

20/ fuel oilFloating/malfloating

19/ crude oilFloating

18/ vegetable oilFloating

Cargo group number/example chemical

FireHealthEnvir-onment

Behaviour when spilled to sea

1618 apr 07


Quantities of oil and chemicals transported in bulk

SHIPPOS gives:

– Cargo group or ballast for reporting ships

– Distribution of reporting ships on Great Belt and the Sound

Extrapolation to all ship sizes and waters

Result, cargo in bulk i Great Belt and the Sound mill. tons/yr:

Chemicals harmful to environment:

Floating, yellow: 0.5

Soluble, red: 0.2

Soluble, yellow: 10

Sinking: 0,1

Oil: 190

Chemicals harmful to environment 11

Chemicals not harmfulto environment 21

Other (e.g. coal) 90

1718 apr 07


Identification of sources of spillsand spill scenarios



Identification of sources of

spills


Spill effect


response to spills



ship activities

Types and amounts of

oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment

1818 apr 07


Identification and scenarios for spill of oil and chemicals

Accidents at sea (accidents with damage to ship > 300 GT):

– Spill of cargo from ships with cargo in bulk

– Spill of bunkers (oil for use onboard) from all types of ship

Spill during transfer of oil at sea due to errors or equipment failure

– STS operations, Kalundborg and Frederikshavn

– Bunkering at sea, Copenhagen, Great Belt, Ålbæk bight

Deliberate or inadvertent spills, eg.

– tank cleaning or emptying of waste oil tanks

– faulty cooling systems


4

1918 apr 07


Spill scenariosSpill sizes

0.3 tons (representing spills < 1 ton)

3 tons (representing spills between 1 and 10 tons)

30 tons (representing spills between 10 and 100 tons)

300 tons (representing spills between 100 and 1,000 tons)

3,000 tons (representing spills between 1,000 and 10,000 tons)

30,000 tons (representing spills > 10,000 tons)

For accidents at sea spill size 0.3 tons is not considered.

2018 apr 07


Spill frequency





Spill effect


response to spills



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment

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Spill of oil and chemicals Main results

350180Deliberate or inadvertent

21.4Transfer of oil at sea

2,2000.9Accidents at sea

Quantity

tons/yr

Frequency

Spill/yr

Type

2218 apr 07


Spill from accidents at seadistribution on spill size

1,6005109970.4Quantity, tons/yr

0.0450.150.320.220.12Frequency, spill/yr

30,0003,000300303

Spill size, tonsOil and chemicals harmful to environment

2318 apr 07


Spill quantities, accidents at sea distribution on types of spill, tons/yr

1001,900Total

4

2

100

1

Chemicals harmful to environment

Floating, yellow

Soluble, red

Soluble, yellow

Sinking

1,500

370

Oil

Cargo

Bunkers

2418 apr 07


Modelling of accidents at sea

General

Collisions

Grounding

Frequency of accident at sea

Frequency of spill given accident

Distribution on size in case of spill

Theoretical model

Modelling of damage to the ship that is hit

Based on Danish statistic

Based on literature

Based on literature


5

2518 apr 07


Spill from collisions and groundings

largest dot: 0.01 - 0.1 per yr

2618 apr 07


Effect of spillsEmergency response and combat





Spill effect

VulnerabilityEmergency response to

spills



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment

2718 apr 07


Effect of spills

Types of spreading:

– Oil and floating chemicals

– Soluble chemicals

– Sinking chemicals

Modelling of a spill event (oil example):

– How and where does the oil spread?

– How large quantities / for how long time?

2818 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals

Task: A model for spreading, which is applicable on 400,000 scenarios (80 points, 8 types, 5 spill sizes, 4 seasons, 12 wind directions, 3 wind speeds)

Simplified model based on

– Calculation by complex models for selected cases

– Analytical models

Parameters

– Slick radius based on volume, oil type and duration

– Fate incl. emulsification based on oil type and duration

– Drift direction and drift speed based on wind direction, wind speed and region

2918 apr 07


Model for oil on water

Påvirkning af kyst

Hydrografisk område 2

UdslipHydrografisk område 1

Processer:

Drift og spredning:

Henfald, emulgering mm:

Malflydning:

Bekæmpelse:

Region 2

Region 1

Impact on coast

Processes

Drift and spreading,

AND Fate, emulsification, etc.,

OR Submersed oil,

AND Combat.

Spill

3018 apr 07


Modelling of response

Main parameters:

– Capacities of pump-skimmer system

– Capacity of booms:

Length

Tow velocity

– Accident-combat time:

T1

T2

T3

– Maximum significantwave height


6

3118 apr 07


Modelling of combat

Input parameters for each area:

Application of assumedgeneric response:

– Realistic but not authentic

– Same parameters for all areas

0.7Non-dimensional

Reduction factor for health hazard class "red"

0.7non-dimensional

Reduction factor for fire hazard class "red"

0.5non-dimensional

Recovery efficiency for chemicals compared to oil

1.3mMax. significant wave height

Spring: 0.4Summer: 0.2Fall: 0.4Winter: 0.6

non-dimensional

Darkness coefficient (ratio of time where combat not is possible due to too little daylight)

Spring: 0.02Summer.: 0.01Fall.: 0.02Winter: 0.04

non-dimensional

Visibility coefficient (ratio of the time where combat not is possible due to fog and haze)

V1: 1V2: 1V3: 1

KnotTow speed at time T1, T2 and T3

T1 : 2T2 : 4T3 : 6

hourAlarm-combat time T1, T2 and T3

L1: 300*)L2: 600L3: 1200

mAccumulated. length of booms at time T1, T2 and T3

Cap1: 0*) Cap2: 50Cap3: 100

m3/hAccumulated capacity of pump-skimmer system at time T1, T2 and T3

Model-responseDimensionParameter

3218 apr 07


Modelling of soluble chemicals

Determination of the downstream distance where the mixing reduces the concentration to the no-effect-concentration. Basis:

– Spill volume and type (3 chemicals)

– Eco-toxicological limit value (no-effect-concentration)

– Applied model is widely used for assessments of spills from offshore platforms

Result: Affected area:

Flow

3318 apr 07


Risk of spill effect





Spill effect


response to spills



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment

3418 apr 07


Risk of spill effects Oil and floating chemicals

Risk of spill effects = Effect of spills x frequency of spills

Representation of frequency: Events/year

Representation of effect of spills:

– On the coast: tons on coast

– On the sea surface: tons in grid element x duration

3518 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicalsRisk of spill effect on the sea

Effect: 10 t/km2 x 10 hours = 0.0114 t/km2 x year

Frequency: 0.01/year = 1/100 year

Risk: 0.0114 t/km2 x year x 0.01/year = 114 g/km2

10 hours 10 hours

100 yrs

time

3618 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals. Sea accidents.Risk of spill effect at present, no response


7

3718 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals. Sea accidents.Risk of spill effect at present, no response

Risk in Danish waters (all spill sizes):

• No emergency response: 8.0 tons

• Assumed generic response: 7.4 tons

Reduction: 7 %

3818 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals. Sea accidents.Risk of spill effects at present, without 30,000 tons spills

No emergency response With assumed generic response

3918 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals. Sea accidents.Risk of spill effects at present, without 30,000 tons spills

No emergency response With assumed generic response

Risk in Danish waters (except 30,000 t):

• No emergency response: 3.8 tons

• Assumed generic response: 3.3 tons

Reduction: 13 %

4018 apr 07


Risk of spill effectsSoluble chemicals

Soluble chemicals

Risk of spill effects = Frequency of spills x effect of spill

Representation of frequency: Number of events/year

Representation of effect: Affected or not-affected (1 or 0)

Risk of spill effects: Number of events /year

4118 apr 07


Soluble chemicalsRisk of spill effects at present

Red: 1 - 3 times per 1,000 year

Light red: 0.3 - 1 times per 1,000 year

4218 apr 07


Risk of damage to marine environment





Spill effect


response to spills



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment


8

4318 apr 07


Sensitivity index

13 different environmental parameters are included

The spatial distribution (abundance) for each parameter is mapped

Each parameter is weighted for its sensitivity towards 3 substance groups:

1. Oil and chemicals on sea surface

2. Soluble chemicals

3. Sinking chemicals

The cumulative sensitivity is integrated over all 12 parameters for each substance group (=> 3 maps)

The above is repeated for each season(=> 4 maps)

Result: 3 x 4 sensitivity maps

4418 apr 07


Vulnerability index

033002300440Nesting sea birds

440021104400Migrating sea birds

000400020004Wintering sea birds

444444444444Wadden Sea / marsh land

444444444444Protected areas

FallSpringSum-mer

WinterFallSpringSum-mer

WinterFallSpringSum-mer

Winter

Sinking chemicalsSoluble chemicalsOil on water surface

233134422331Spawning and Nursery Area

333322224444Marine Mammals

111144444444Rocky Shores

111111111231Sandy Beaches (Recreation)

111111112222City Areas

233233333342Shallow Areas (<10m)

000044443333Fish Farms

334234424444Archipelagos, Stone Reefs

4518 apr 07


Vulnerability map, Oil and floating chemicalsSpring

4618 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals, sea accidents,Risk of damage to environment, at present, no emergency response

4718 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals, sea accidents,Risk of damage to environment, at present, no emergency response

Risk of damage to the environment, Danish waters:

• No emergency response: 57 tons weighted

• With assumed generic response: 53 tons weighted

Reduction: 7 %

4818 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals, accidents at sea,Risk of damage to the environment, at present

Risk of spill effects Risk of damage


9

4918 apr 07


The future





Spill effect


response to spills



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment



ship activities


oil and chemicals

Spill frequency

Risk ofspill effect

Risk of damage to

environment

5018 apr 07



Principles

– Development of trade into and out of the Baltic Sea from Baltic Maritime Outlook

Prognosis for 2010 and 2020

Carried out for EU and national authorities

– Special assessment of oil export from Russia

– Distribution of trade on types of ship based on SHIPPOS (bulk) and judgement (packaged goods)

– Increase in average size of ship estimated for different types of ship

Results for each type of ship and DWT class:

– Factor on number (greater factor for large ships than for small)

5118 apr 07


Development in oil export from Russia

mill. barrels/day = 50 mill. tons /yr

Increase:

2003 to 2010: 5,7 % /yr

2010 to 2020: 1,2 % /yr

Oil production and consumption in Russia and other FSUSources: MSR-consult & IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006

ConsumptionProductionExport surplus

5218 apr 07


Increase in traffic compared to today (1. July 05 -30. June 06) sailed nautical miles

25 %26 %

15 %14 %

26 %33 %

2020:All shipsTankers

16 %20 %

10 %12 %

17 %26 %


9 %18 %

5 %12 %

10 %21 %


All Danish waters

The SoundGreat Belt

5318 apr 07


Risk reduction


– Proposal from the government's action plan from 2004

– Other measures such as general IMO and general development of ship design, primarily based on information from Danish Maritime Authority

Impact on frequency of accidents

≈ 0 %≈ 1.00"negligible"5

5 %0.95"small"4

20 %0.80"considerable"3

50 %0.50"large"2

80 %0.20"very large"1

Risk reductionEffect factorQualitative description

Category of measure

5418 apr 07


Most important measures

Pilot: Effect factor 0.5

Increased use of pilots due to

– systematic calls to all ships recommended to use pilots in Danish waters according to IMO recommendations

– a number of measures considered as "overall increased surveillance"

VTS Great Belt and VTS the Sound from 2010:Effect factor 0.5

ECDIS: Effect factor 0.5 for groundingsPercentage of ships with ECDIS increasing from 20 % today to 100 % in 2020

Double hull at cargo tanks: All tankers from 2010

Double hull at bunker tanks: New ships > 10,000 DWT from 2010


10

5518 apr 07


Results for the future Changes compared to situation today, all Danish waters

+ 45 %+ 22 %+ 8 %Risk of damage to environment, oil and floating chemicals

+ 53 %+ 29 %+ 14 %Risk of spill effects, oil and floating chemicals

+ 41 %+ 21 %+ 9 %Spills, tons/yr

+ 4 %- 5 %- 11 %Spills, number/yr

202020152010

5618 apr 07


Risk of damage to environment, changes compared to situation today, selected parts of Danish waters

+ 45 %+ 22 %+ 8 %All Danish waters

+ 65 %+ 42 %+ 29 %12 Bornholm

+ 67 %+ 44 %+ 31 %4 Kattegat North

+ 66 %+ 42 %+ 27 %10 Kadetrenden

- 32 %- 38 %- 40 %8 The Sound

+ 1 %- 15 %- 24 %7 Great Belt

+ 77 %+ 47 %+ 30 %3 Skagerrak

202020152010Part of Danish waters

5718 apr 07


Oil and floating chemicals. Accidents at sea Risk of damage today and in 2020, no emergency response

today 2020

5818 apr 07


Summary, the model

Provides modelling of the pollution risk all the way from a description of the ship traffic to the impact on the environmentincluding the effect of the emergency response

Presents a picture of the distribution of the risk

– in the waters considered

– on the different spill sizes and spilled substances

Allows calculation of the effect of changes:

– Development of the ship traffic

– Introduction of risk reduction measures

– Development of the emergency response

5918 apr 07


Summary, results for Danish waters(entrance to the Baltic Sea)

Harmful chemicals are small fractions of oils and chemicals transported and spilled

Major contributor to risk is very large spills of oil (class 30,000 t), which has not occurred yet

The most exposed area is the Great Belt

Assumed generic emergency response to spills gives 7 % reduction in spill effects for all spills, and 13 % when very large spills (class 30,000 t) are not consideredThis is in accordance with international experience

In the future the risk will increase due to increase in number and size of the ships despite the risk reduction measures, except for Great Belt and the Sound where VTS is introduced

1 risk analysis oil and chemical spills in danish waters ... · cowi ywork started april 2006 and...

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