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Measuring Vocational Program Outcomes: What We

Know and What’s NextPatrick Perry

Vice Chancellor, Technology, Research, & Information

Systems

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Who is this guy? Why should we listen to you?

Brad Pitt-like looks Vin Diesel physique

I collect data and measure stuff for a living.

I have all the data. Information Management & Institutional

Research: IM…therefore IR.

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My Credo

I realize that I will not succeed in answering all of your questions. Indeed, I will not answer any of them completely. The answers I provide will only serve to raise a whole new set of questions that lead to more problems, some of which you weren’t aware of in the first place. When my work is complete, you will be as confused as ever, but hopefully, you will be confused on a higher level and about more important things.

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Today’s Learning Outcomes

Learn about recent impacts of fee increases/budget cuts on Voc. enrollments

Learn about vocational course completion rates

Know the trends of awards/certificates conferred in the system

Learn about wages by degree type Learn about wages by TOP code Learn about the ARCC/1417 Wage Study

(Pre-Post)

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Fee History of the CCC’sTime Frame Per Unit Fees Precipitating Event(s)

Prior to Fall 1984 $0

Fall 1984 - Spring 1991 $5, capped at $50 per sem. Recession in 1982-83

Fall 1991 – Fall 1993 $6, capped at $60 per sem.

Recession/State Budget Crisis of 1991-93

Spring 1993 $10, cap eliminated,

differential fee of $50/unit for holders of BA/BS

Fall 1993 to Fall 1995 $13, Differential fee of $50/unit

Spring 1996 to Fall 1998 $13, Differential fee eliminated

Period of economic boomSpring 1999 to Fall 1999 $12

Spring 2000 to Spring 2003 $11

Fall 2003 – Spring 2003 $18 Recession/State Budget Crisis of 2001-04Fall 2004 – present $26

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Budget History of the CCC’sFiscal Year System Funding (Billions)

1992-93 $2.74

1993-94 2.729

1994-95 2.757

1995-96 2.948

1996-97 3.199

1997-98 3.530

1998-99 3.889

1999-00 4.087

2000-01 4.672

2001-02 4.956

2002-03 4.907

2003-04 4.969

2004-05 5.416

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Fee/Budget Impacts and Voc Programs: Sections OfferedTerm Total Occ Ed Occ Ed % Transfer

Transfer %

Basic Skills

Basic Skills %

Fall 1999 157,015 54,033 -1.70% 105,182 -0.40% 14,078 6.70%

Spring 2000 160,728 56,834 5.20% 107,948 2.60% 13,717 -2.60%

Fall 2000 160,697 55,422 -2.50% 108,743 0.70% 14,379 4.80%

Spring 2001 165,906 58,988 6.40% 112,242 3.20% 14,090 -2.00%

Fall 2001 166,735 58,385 -1.00% 113,558 1.20% 14,536 3.20%

Spring 2002 172,811 62,678 7.40% 117,260 3.30% 14,259 -1.90%

Fall 2002 170,373 59,528 -5.00% 115,873 -1.20% 15,616 9.50%

Spring 2003 164,597 57,973 -2.60% 112,731 -2.70% 14,561 -6.80%

Fall 2003 160,573 55,768 -3.80% 109,975 -2.40% 14,632 0.50%

Spring 2004 165,261 58,209 4.40% 113,162 2.90% 14,831 1.40%

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Top 10 Curricular Areas Lost (FTES)

Subject Area 02-03 FTES 04-05 FTES FTES Loss

Physical Education 83,747.90 65,980.20 17,767.70

Information Technology, General 34,482.10 25,045.70 9,436.40

General Studies 123,413.20 114,348.90 9,064.30

Computer Software Development 8,848.20 5,287.50 3,560.70

Office Technology/Office Computer Applications 17,893.80 14,632.30 3,261.50

Art 32,512.60 29,656.10 2,856.50

Music 29,393.10 26,709.30 2,683.80

Administration of Justice 23,342.00 20,919.20 2,422.80

Mathematics, General 105,219.00 103,253.30 1,965.70

Electronics and Electric Technology 5,843.50 4,011.80 1,831.70

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Top 10 Curricular Areas Gained (FTES)

Subject Area 02-03 FTES 04-05 FTES FTES Gain

Real Estate 5,065.80 7,140.40 2,074.60

Manufacturing and Industrial Technology 7,667.80 9,606.20 1,938.40

Anatomy and Physiology 6,634.00 8,044.30 1,410.30

Fire Technology 9,888.00 10,906.20 1,018.20

Chemistry, General 23,147.90 23,992.00 844.1

Nutrition, Foods, and Culinary Arts 7,882.00 8,630.20 748.2

Microbiology 1,223.60 1,887.20 663.6

Sociology 15,641.00 16,161.80 520.8

Radiologic Technology 2,460.30 2,945.40 485.1

Speech Communication 21,824.30 22,179.40 355.1

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Voc Ed Course Completion Rates

Course Type 1995-96 2004-05 % change

Transferable Courses 68.3% 69.5% 1.8%

Basic Skills Courses 60.3% 60.7% 0.7%

Vocational Courses 77.2% 84.3% 9.2%

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Annual Volume of Awards/Certificates

Degree Type 1997-98 2004-05 % change

AA/AS Degrees 60,552 77,093 27.3%

Certificates 23,627 21,107 -10.7%

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Effects of Degree Attainment on Wages

Recent study done in support of ARCC/Ab1417 Accountability Project Catharine Liddicoat, CCC Research

Unit

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Effects of Degree Attainment on Wages

Methodology: Take all award recipients in 2000-

2001 who were Not enrolled in 01-02 and 02-03; and Not transferred to a 4-yr college; and Had a record on EDD’s wage file

Cut post-attainment wages by award type and TOP code of award (2+ years after)

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Study Domain

2000-2001 “Completers Cohort” had 14,516 students 12,105 earned one award; 2,411

earned 2 or more 78.7% had wage data for all 3 years

out Looking at only single award earners

who had 3 years of wage data: Study N=9,490

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Study: Median and Mean Wages

Subsequent Years Median Mean Std. Dev.

Wages 01-02 $31,515 $35,244 $24,302

Wages 02-03 $35,279 $39,491 $26,396

Wages 03-04 $37,174 $41,444 $28,206

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Study: Wages by Award Type

Award Type Wages 01-02 Wages 02-03 Wages 03-04

Assoc. of Arts $25,741 $29,215 $30,679

Assoc. Of Science $38,498 $46,002 $48,942

Certificate, <6 units $46,460 $48,110 $48,603

Certificate, 6-18 units $24,504 $26,267 $27,384

Certificate 18-30 units $30,447 $33,297 $35,252

Certificate, 30-60 units $30,419 $33,369 $34,520

Certificate, 60+ units $36,696 $40,687 $44,049

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TOP 5 Highest Earning:

5. Admin. Of Justice ($54,158) 4. Plumbing & Pipefitting ($56,628) 3. Corrections ($62,414) 2. Physicians Assistant ($64,658) 1. Surveying ($70,626)

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Bottom 5:

5. Fashion Design ($16,206) 4. Animal Science ($14,086) 3. Home Health Aide ($14,081) 2. Cosmetology ($11,616) 1. Spanish ($9,307)

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Wage Study: Wages Pre-Post

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

ccc median income $19,197 21,004 22,995 25,696 27,468 29,109 32,456 42,891 47,331 48,718

median household income $34,100 35,300 37,100 39,000 40,600 43,800 46,900 47,177 47,500 49,320

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Wage Study: Wages Pre-Post

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

S1S2

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

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Income Increase from Attaining CCC Degree or Certificate (DRAFT Feb2006)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Years

Inco

me

CA Median Hhold Income 35,100 34,100 35,300 37,100 39,000 40,600 43,800 46,900 47,177 47,500 49,320

CA Per Capita Income 22,635 23,203 24,161 25,312 26,490 28,374 29,828 32,464 32,877 32,807 33,389

CCC Median Income (no zeroes) 17,408 19,197 21,004 22,995 25,696 27,468 29,109 32,456 42,891 47,331 48,718

CCC Median Income (zeroes included) 2,131 3,560 5,323 7,459 9,116 10,541 10,665 15,158 25,758 27,667 28,670

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

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ARCC/AB1417

Is the next Accountability report of the CCC System

Features College-level metrics and System-level metrics

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ARCC/AB1417

Ideally, we desired to produce program completion rates for all voc. Programs, but…

MIS does not collect data on student program of study

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ARCC/AB1417

Metrics Associated with Vocational outcomes: Student Progress & Achievement Rate-

College Metric FTF cohort tracked over 6 years Tracks students who attempt transfer or degree-

applicable level math + English courses as “behavioral intent to complete”

Outcomes: Transfer, Transfer-prepared, transfer-directed, AA/AS, Certificate, or “earned 30 units” threshhold

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ARCC/AB1417

Annual Successful Course Completion Rate (Vocational Courses)—College Metric Same as in PFE Report

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ARCC/AB1417

Annual Volume of Degrees/Certificates Conferred (System Metric) Cut by TOP code

Increase in Total Personal Income as a result of degree/certificate attainment (System metric)

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ARCC/AB1417

Draft report sent to college ~October 60-day review of draft report, data

resubmission allowed Peer Groupings created for metrics Final draft of report to field ~January 30 day “response to report and local analysis”;

college comments made a part of the report Report due March Colleges have 1 year to have local board

review report and acknowledge having interacted with it

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Your Turn…

We are always open to hearing good research ideas…feel free to contact us so we may assist.

Thanks for inviting me to your conference!