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Achieving sustainable development

R.K. PachauriChairman, IPCC

Director-General, TERI

ECOSOCKeynote Address on the theme “achieving

sustainable development”

New York, 30 June 2008

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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The work of the IPCC is guided by the mandate given to it by its parent organisations: the World

Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the

scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation

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Writing and review process of the IPCC assessment reports

1. Experts review the first draft of the report

2. Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers

3. Governments review word-by-word the revised draft Summary for Policymakers

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+2500 scientific expert reviewers

800 contributing authors

450 lead authors

+130 countries

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

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Economic and social aspects of climate change

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Ranges for estimated aggregate costs of climate change impacts

Variation between studies are explained by uncertainties in climate sensitivity, discount rates, valuation of impacts, etc.

Aggregate estimates mask significant differences in impacts across sectors and regions

US$-10 to US$+350 per ton of carbon

1.5 to 20% of GDP for doubling of CO2 concentration

Real social cost of carbon will rise by 2 to 4% per year

Aggregate estimates are confronted to the difficulty to monetise human, social, cultural & environmental impacts

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Examples of climate change impacts

These expressions of risk are determined fundamentally by location in time and space

1.1 to 3.2 billion people will experience increased water scarcity by 2080

20-30% of species could be at risk of extinction if increases in warming >1.5-2.5°C

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

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Distribution of vulnerability

9 Severe vulnerability7 Moderate6 Moderate5 Modest4 Modest3 Little2 LittleNo data

Year 2050

10 Extreme9 Severe8 Serious7 Moderate6 Moderate5 ModestNo data

Year 2100

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The urgent need for mitigation

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Mitigation targets

3.2 – 4.0

2.8 – 3.2

2.4 – 2.8

2.0 – 2.4

Global mean temp. increase

(ºC)

2020 – 2060590 – 710

2010 – 2030535 – 590

2000 – 2020490 – 535

2000 – 2015445 – 490

Year CO2

needs to peak

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

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Mitigation actions can result co-benefits that may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs

Global average costs for stringent mitigation would induce a slowing of global GDP growth of less than 0.12 points

Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems, mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies

Cost & timing of mitigation

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All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades

This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development and diffusion

60-80% of GHG reductions would come from energy supply & use and industrial processes

Mitigation potential

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Investment needs in energy supply

Significantly de-carbonizing power production would require incremental investments of up to $40 billion/year globally; $30 billion/year in non-OECD countries1

This would be offset by reduced investment requirements resulting from improved end-use energy efficiency

A global increased investment of US$2.4 trillion in improved efficiency would be more than offset by US$3 trillion savings in supply investments2

IPCCSources: IPCC AR4 citing 1) WB, 2006 2) IEA, 2006

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Perspectives on sustainable development

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Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of sustainable development share common goals & determinants:

Access to resources and equity Stocks of human and social capital Access to risk-sharing mechanisms Institutional capacity

Social and environmental issues are often left without effective support when economic growth takes precedence

Appropriate policies are key factors for improved sustainability & adaptive capacity

Development & adaptation

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Development & mitigation

The dominant path to industrialisation has been characterised by high concurrent GHG emissions and pressure on natural resources

Committing to alternative development paths requires major changes in a wide range of areas:

Economic structure Geographical distribution of activities Consumption patterns Demography

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Towards a new system of governance

There is increasing recognition of a shift to a more inclusive concept of governance, including:

Involvement of the relevant parties and policy coherence are essential to achieve the desired goals and ensure sustainability

Linking and coherence between policies addressing climate change, economic development, health, employment, energy security, and local environment

The cooperation of various levels of government, the private sector and civil society

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Lighting a Billion Lives Campaign

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1.6 billion people lack access to electricity 33% live in India

We commit to enable a billion lives to access light from solar technologies

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Solar lantern

Each solar lantern: Saves about 40-60 litres of

kerosene per year Mitigates 145 kg of CO2

emissions per year

Alternately: Saves about 182.5 kWhr of

electricity per year Mitigates 157 kg of CO2

emissions per year

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Gobindarampur: a village benefiting from the campaign

Solar lanterns are used in livelihood activities such as betel leaf cultivation,

coaching centres, and shops

Bani and her friends run and maintain the charging station

Solar lanterns have helped families in their daily

activities

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Be the change you want to see in the worldGandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard of living as Britain. He replied:

It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity. How many planets will a country like India require!