1 fourth generation war evolves, fifth emerges t. x. hammes august 2007

45
1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

Upload: brianna-burns

Post on 02-Jan-2016

218 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

1

Fourth Generation War Evolves,

Fifth Emerges

T. X. HammesAugust 2007

Page 2: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

2

Marine Palm Pilot

Page 3: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

3

Purpose

How and why warfare changes

Recent evolutions in fourth generation

Potential fifth generation

What’s after that

Page 4: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

4

4GW is Just a Model Varied terminology used in descriptionsToffler’s Waves Forms of Energy Generations of RMAs

Fourth Generation ConstructFocus on modern warSimple AQ uses it

Page 5: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

5

War Reflects Society

Economic

Political

Social

Technology

“Military institutions and the manner in which they employ violencedepended on the economic, social and political conditions of theirrespective states.” On War, Clausewitz, Paret translation, pg. 6.

Page 6: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

6

Four Generations

Massed Manpower – Napoleonic

Massed Firepower – WW I

Mechanized War – WW II

Insurgency (information) – dominant since WW II

Page 7: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

7

Fourth Generation War

Page 8: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

8

ChinaMao – Political struggle is PRIMARY

Organized all of society

Three phases One – Political organization Two – Guerrilla fight – “change correlation of

forces” Three – Conventional fight – ONLY after Phase II

is successful

First to write it down

Page 9: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

9

VietnamImitated and improved on Mao

Used international networks to change correlation of forces

Tet 68 disaster tactically, strategic victory

Used political power to negate US military power

Still ended with conventional invasion

Page 10: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

10

NicaraguaCoalition of insurgent groups

NEVER sought military victory

Target was US Congress International media, celebrities, mainline Christian churches

Defeated Somoza politically

No Phase III offensive

Page 11: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

11

Palestinians – Intifada I

First Intifada spontaneous eruption Organized within weeks Loosely affiliated – “self organizing web” Never even had a military aspect

Multiple messages International – children vs. powerful army Israelis – Israel proper safe, occupied zone unsafe Palestinians – We are holding our own

Result – 1993 Oslo Accords

Page 12: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

12

Intifada I - Children vs Army

The Lasting Images

Page 13: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

13

Al Aqsa Intifada

Reverses roles Israel back to besieged Palestinians back to ruthless terroristsUS position

No negotiation until terror stopsSupports Israeli security techniques

Includes seizure of more territory on West Bank

Page 14: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

14

Al Aqsa Intifada – Oppression

Page 15: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

15

Suicide Bombers

Page 16: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

16

Afghans vs. Soviets

No unified resistance – changing coalitionsEssentially tribal = network Overlaid religious and xenophobic aspects

Massive killing failed

Broke Soviet will

Page 17: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

17

Al Qaeda

“Fourth Generation Wars have ... proven the superiority of the weaker power.” Ubeid al-Qurashi Jan 2002

Proto-typical non-nation state 4GW enemy Transnational coalition of willing Idea based Global network of local insurgents Strategic guidance is vertical Tactical support is horizontal

Page 18: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

18

IraqClassic 4GW approach"The war is very long, and always think of

this as the beginning. And always make the enemy think that yesterday was better than today.'‘ ZARQAWI

Tribal, ethnic and religious networks

Was Network of the willingSunni Salifi, Sunni secular, Shia radicals,

Free Lancers, Foreign Jihadists

Now the predictable civil war

Page 19: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

19

Hizbollah-Israeli Summer War

Hizb understood political aspectsBuilt political base – servicesFought political fightSaw victory is secured after fighting

High-low mixLong range missiles Israeli focus122mm Rockets most effectiveTechnological surprise – C802, UAV

Lateral escalation!

Page 20: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

20

Will we go back to 3GW?

War is “contest of opposing wills”

Cost of hightech vs insurgency

Record of successConventional = Status quoUnconventional = Change

5-0 versus Superpowers

Page 21: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

21

4th Generation – Insurgency Evolved

Direct attack on minds of decision makersUses all available networks – political, economic, social and militarySuperior political will defeats greater economic and military power. Wars are measured in decades.

Political, Protracted, Networked

Page 22: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

22

Key Changes in 4GW since Mao

Strategic Shift

Organizational Shift

Participants Increase

Weapons

Page 23: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

23

Strategic Shift –Insurgents’ View

NOT a military campaign

Strategic Communications CampaignSupported by interagency effortsMilitary action is NOT primaryMilitary action cannot solve the problem

Page 24: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

24

Operational Shift

Coalition of the willingAfghanistan, Chechnya, IraqOften hate each other

Transdimensional Identify, recruit, indoctrinate, train, deploy,

controlAttackFund

Page 25: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

25

Participants

Armed groups

Clans, tribes

Criminals

Private Military CompaniesState use as well

Page 26: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

26

Weapons ofMass Disruption

Previous Incidents

Page 27: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

27

Anthrax and Ricin Capitol Hill

Included a warning and instructions

Page 28: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

28

Bombings

MadridLondon

Page 29: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

29

Weapons ofMass Destruction

Practical Methods

Page 30: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

30

Chemical: Bhopal

One temporary morgue

Killed = 15,000 Long term injury = 200,000

Page 31: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

31

HYE: Oklahoma City

Truckload of Ammonium Nitrate

Page 32: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

32

Texas City Ship Explosion

Rail Cars – 3 / 4 Mile from zero

Page 33: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

33

HYE: Texas City Ship Explosion

Shipload of Ammonium Nitrate

Page 34: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

34

Summary of 4GW

Conflict is now Strategic Communications Focus is outsiders Internal conflict still bloody

Enemy will be shifting “coalition of the willing”

Many more players with various motivations

Cheaper, deadlier weapons

Page 35: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

35

Fifth Generation Emerges

Page 36: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

36

S CurvesInnovation/Technology Development

Experimentation

Institutionalization

Rapid Growth

Adoption

Maturation

Innovation

Page 37: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

37

Generations of War

2d –

Branches

5th – All of Society

4th – All of Govt.

3d – Combined Arms

Time

Pre

vale

nce/

Per

form

ance

Page 38: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

38

5GW Incubating Now

Political – Pressure on nation state

Economic – Smaller Entities

Social – Loyalty to cause not nation

Technology - Bio tech, Nano-tech, Always on Net

Page 39: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

39

ForeshadowingAttacks Capitol Hill -- anthrax - no information London, Madrid – bombs – no connection

Increasing “cause” attacks Earth Liberation, Animal Liberation Fronts

Several areas – cyber, nano, bio Biological advances Synthetic biology – Dr. Venter Australians and Mouse Pox Carlson’s Curve British student

Page 40: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

40

5GW Goal

Stop GlobalizationPotential “coalition of the willing”

Globalization losersFundamentalist movementsEnvironmental radicals

Destroy ‘trust’ – inhibit movement Information – physical not cyberPersonnel – relationshipsMaterial - containers

Page 41: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

41

Nightmare 5GW

Super empowered individual or small group

Uses increasing power of knowledge creates “off the shelf” technology

Loyalty to “cause” not nation

Anthrax on Capitol Hill

Smallpox Worldwide

Page 42: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

42

Beyond 5GW

Page 43: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

43

Rate of Change

Kurzweil’s SINGULARITYChange is exponential not linearOverestimate in short termUnderestimate in long term

Page 44: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

44

Bottom Line

21st Century will not bring100 years of progress

It will be 20,000 years

Page 45: 1 Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

45

Additional Information

www.d-n-i.net

“The Sling and the Stone”

[email protected]