1 chapter 6 residential financial analysis. 2 overview incremental borrowing cost loan refinancing...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Chapter 6
Residential Financial Analysis
2
Overview
Incremental Borrowing Cost Loan Refinancing Effective Cost of Multiple Loans Below Market Financing Cash Equivalency
3
Incremental Borrowing Cost
Compare financing alternatives What is the real cost of borrowing more
money at a higher interest rate? Alternatively, what is the required return
to justify a lower down payment? Basic principle when comparing choices:
What are the cash flow differences?
4
Incremental Borrowing Cost – Continued
Example: Home Value = $150,000 Two Financing Alternatives:
#1: 90% Loan-to-Value, 8.5% Interest Rate, 30 Years
#2: 80% Loan-to-Value, 8.0% Interest Rate, 30 Years
It appears there is only a 50bp interest rate difference, but…
5
Incremental Borrowing Cost – Continued
Alternative 1 Alternative 2House Value $100,000.00 $100,000.00Loan-to-Value Ratio 80% 90%Loan Amount $80,000.00 $90,000.00Interest Rate 12.00% 13.00%Loan Term 25 25Payment per Year 12 12Number of Payments 300 300
Monthly Payments $842.58 $1,015.05Additional BorrowingAdditional PaymentWhat is the cost of additional amount borrowed?
N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV300 20.57% 12 -10,000 172.47 0
$10,000.00$172.47
6
Incremental Borrowing Cost – Continued
20.57% represents the real cost of borrowing the extra $10,000
Can you earn an equivalent risk adjusted return on the $10,000 that is not invested in the home?
Alternatively, can you borrow the additional $10,000 elsewhere at a lower cost?
7
Incremental Borrowing Cost – Early RepaymentLoan Costs with Prepayment in 5 YearsLoan Balance Alternative 1:
N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV240 12.00% 12 -76,523 842.58 0
Loan Balance Alternative 2:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
240 13.00% 12 -86,640 1,015.05 0
What is the cost of additional amount borrowed?N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV60 20.83% 12 -10,000 172.47 10,117
8
Incremental Borrowing Cost – Origination FeesLoan Costs with Origination Fees
Alternative 1 Alternative 2Points 2% 3%Loan Amount $78,400.00 $87,300.00
Additional BorrowingAdditional Payment
What is the cost of additional amount borrowed?N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
300 23.18% PV -8,900 172.47 0
$8,900.00$172.47
9
Incremental Borrowing Cost – Second Mortgage
In the first case we compared 80 and 90% LTV loans By borrowing $90,000, cost of additional $10,000
was 20.57% What if we borrow $80,000 (80% LTV) and shop for
loan for $10,000 with 25 year term If we can borrow that $10,000 at a cost less than
20.57% then we would have loan with a lower cost than 90% LTV loan.
Suppose a lender can loan us that $10,000 at 18% Composite cost of borrowing would be
($80,000 / $90,000) × 12% + ($10,000 / $90,000) × 18% This is 12.66% It is clear that break-even rate for second mortgage is 20.57%
10
Incremental Borrowing Cost – Maturity Differences
Alternative 1 Alternative 2House Value $100,000.00 $100,000.00Loan-to-Value Ratio 80% 90%Loan Amount $80,000.00 $90,000.00Interest Rate 12.00% 13.00%Loan Term 25 30Payment per Year 12 12Number of Payments 300 360
Monthly Payments $842.58 $995.58Additional BorrowingAdditional Payment (First 300 Months) $153.00Additional Payment (Last 60 Months) $995.58
What is the cost of additional amount borrowed?CF0 = -10,000.00C01 = 153.00 F01 = 300C02 = 995.58 F02 = 60
CPT IRR 1.572 %Annual 18.86 %
$10,000.00
11
Loan Refinancing Borrower consideration
Lower interest rates in the market than on the current loan
The borrower can secure lower monthly payments
There is a cost to refinance Application of basic capital budgeting
investment decision: What is our return on an investment in a
new loan?
12
Loan Refinancing for Remaining Term of Original Loan
Original LoanFive Years
LaterLoan amount $80,000.00 -Loan rate 15.00% 14.00%Term (years) 30 25 Prepayment penalty 2% -Financing costs - $2,525.00
PMT of the old loan:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
360 15.00% 12 -80,000.00 1,011.56 0
Loan balance after 5 years:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
300 15.00% 12 -78,976.50 1,011.56 0
PMT of the new loan:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
300 14.00% 12 -78,976.50 950.69 0
Prepayment penalty $1,579.53Financing costs $2,525.00Cost of new loan $4,104.53
N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV300 17.57% 12 -4,104.53 60.87 0
It appears that 4,104.53 committed to refinancing earns 17.57% annual return over 25 years.Unless you can earn more than that with similar risk you should refinance.
Las
t Com
puta
tion
wit
h C
F:
CF 0
=-4
,104
.53
C01
=60
.87
F01
=30
0C
PT
IR
R1.
4640
%A
nnua
l17
.57
%
13
Loan Refinancing – Early Repayment of New Loan
Alternatives:1. Keep the old loan for 10 more years2. Refinance now and keep it for 10 yearsPMT of the old loan:
N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV360 15.00% 12 -80,000.00 1,011.56 0
Old loan balance after 15 years:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
180 15.00% 12 -72,275.26 1,011.56 0
PMT of the new loan:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
300 14.00% 12 -78,976.50 950.69 0
New loan balance after 10 years:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
180 14.00% 12 -71,386.86 950.69 0No prepayment penalty and financing costs at that time for the new loan.
N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV120 14.21% 12 -4,104.53 60.87 888.40
Return on funds committed to refinancing.
Las
t Com
puta
tion
wit
h C
F:C
F0
=-4
,104
.53
C01
=60
.87
F01
=11
9C
02 =
949.
27F
01 =
1C
PT
IR
R1.
1843
%A
nnua
l14
.21
%
14
Borrowing the Financing Costs
PMT of the old loan:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
360 15.00% 12 -80,000.00 1,011.56 0
Old loan balance after 15 years:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
300 15.00% 12 -78,976.50 1,011.56 0
PMT of the new loan rolling financing cost:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
300 14.00% 12 -83,081.03 1,000.10 0
Effective cost:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
300 14.81% 12 -78,976.50 1,000.10 0.00Return on funds committed to refinancing.
Las
t Com
puta
tion
wit
h C
F:C
F 0 =
-78,
976.
50
C01
=1,
000.
10F0
1 =
300
CP
T I
RR
1.23
44%
Ann
ual
14.8
1%
15
Effective Cost of Multiple Loans
Basic Technique Compute the payments for the loans Combine into a cash flow stream Compute the effective cost of the
amount borrowed, given the cash flow stream
Compare the cost to alternative financing options
16
Effective Cost of Multiple Loans – Continued
Example: You need a $500,000 financing
package. $100,000 at 7.0%, 30 Years $200,000 at 7.5%, 20 Years $200,000 at 8.0%, 10 Years
17
Effective Cost of Multiple Loans – ContinuedLoan 1 Payment:
N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV360 7.00% 12 -100,000.00 665.30 0
Loan 2 Payment:N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV
240 7.50% 12 -200,000.00 1,611.19 0Loan 3 Payment:
N I/Y P/Y PV PMT FV120 8.00% 12 -200,000.00 2,426.55 0
CF0 = -500,000.00C01 = 4,703.04 F01 = 120C02 = 2,276.49 F02 = 120C03 = 665.30 F03 = 120
CPT IRR 0.6239 %Annual 7.49 %
18
Below Market Financing
A seller with a below market rate assumable loan may increase the home price All else equal, a buyer is paying a
higher price for lower payments Similar to other problems, we
compute interest rate and compare it to other equivalent risk investments
19
Below Market Financing – Continued
The buyer can secure below market financing by paying $5,000 more for an identical home
The below market financing results in a monthly payment of $85.63 less than if regular financing was used
The buyer earns 19.41% on the $5,000 investment by reducing the monthly payment by $85.63
A BPrice $105,000 $100,000Loan Balance $70,000 $70,000Loan Characteristics Assumable New LoanDown payment $35,000 $30,000I 9% 11%Term (Years) 15 15Payments per Year 12 12Payment $709.99 $795.62
Return on investment:CF0 = -5,000.00C01 = 85.63 F01 = 180
CPT IRR 1.6172 %Annual 19.41 %
20
Cash Equivalency
How much more a borrower would be most willing to pay for a property with an assumable loan? This is same as PV of payment savings
discounted at the rate a new loan could be obtained
CF0 = 0.00C01 = 85.63 F01 = 180
I = 11%CPT NPV 7,534.00
21
Cash Equivalency – Continued
Together with the financing premium, a buyer could be willing to pay $107,534 for this property to receive the benefit of below-market financing Does this mean the house is worth more than
$100,000? Need to separate the value of the property with
and without the effects of financing Note that the amount of cash invested in this
property would be $100,000 if you take away the assumable loan benefit
22
Cash Equivalency - Smaller Loan Balance
Need for additional borrowing due to relatively low balance on the assumable loan reduces the financing premium on the property
A1 A2 Total BPrice $105,000 $100,000Loan Balance $50,000 $20,000 $70,000Loan Characteristics Assumable New Loan New LoanDown payment $30,000 $30,000I 9% 14% 11%Term (Years) 15 15 15Payments per Year 12 12 12Payment $507.13 $266.35 $773.48 $795.62
CF0 = 0.00C01 = 22.14 F01 = 180
I = 11%CPT NPV 1,947.59