1 an overview of the russian securitization market – key trends and outlook for 2008 dr. alexander...
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An overview of the Russian An overview of the Russian securitization market – key trends securitization market – key trends
and outlook for 2008and outlook for 2008
Dr. Alexander V. ChernyakDr. Alexander V. ChernyakCEOCEO
ATTA Mortgage LLCATTA Mortgage LLC
Russian Securitization ForumRussian Securitization Forum
New YorkNew York 10 September 10 September 2007 2007
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Housing Market Status
кв. м на 1 чел.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
США Великобритания Германия Франция Россия
Housing Availability Level in Different Countries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ты
с.
Сделки на вторичном рынке
Сделки на первичном рынке
Forecast of dynamics of purchase and sale transactions in RF
61% of Russian families need improvements of their housing conditions
Transactions at secondary marketTransactions at primary market
USA Great Britain Germany France Russia
Square meters per men
thousands
44
Forecast of Mortgage LoansForecast of mortgage loan issuance
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Years
Billions of dollars
Mortgage loans (annually)
Forecast of mortgage loan mean volume
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Years
Thousands of dollars
Average size
Forecast of the number of issued mortgage loans
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Years
Number
Number (annually)
Comparison of growth coefficients
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Years
Coefficients
Increase of volume Increase of size
Increase of number
55
The basis for formation and development of three models of the mortgage market was laid:
- closed – a system of loan saving accounts in which resources for mortgage loans are formed by means of savings and government subsidies;
- single-level – primary creditors are issuers of mortgage securities;
- double-level – special “refinancing companies” and largest banks with wide net of branches assure liquidity of small and medium creditors through buying out mortgage assets and issue collateral mortgage securities.
In fact, all actual mortgage programs are oriented to securitization of mortgage assets, which determines a priority of development of the double-level model.
Three Models
77
Securitization in Russia
Volume of Securitization in Russia by Year
Russian Securitization by Asset Class in 2007:H1
88
Estimates of Refinancing Mortgage Product Market Share
Parameter 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Volume of issued mortgage loans 2,196 6,275 15,686 31,373 54,902 82,353 102,941
Loan volume, kept by lenders 1,569 3,765 7,843 14,118 21,961 28,824 30,902
Volume of mortgage loans to be securitized
627 2,510 7,843 17,255 32,941 53,529 72,039
Share of securitized mortgage loans
0.29 0.40 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70
Million of dollars
99
Securitization Perspectives
Predicted structure of mortgage assets
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Years
million of dollars
Securitisized loans Unsecuritisized loans Volume of the market
1010
There were already a number of notable features in Russian securitization market in 2007. Among these were:
- Agency for Housing and Mortgage Lending’s (AHML) first RMBS transaction, which was the first domestic transaction using tranching
- Raiffeisen’s $400 million auto-loan deal that was the first in its asset class to achieve a single A rating in Russia
- DeltaCredit’s RMBS transaction that was the first in Russia to use a principal deficiency ledger (PDL) mechanism
- Sovfintrade’s (Gazprombank’s) second off-shore RMBS
In 2008 we can forecast growing interest from western and domestic investors in Russian structured bonds, therefore we can expect to see continued growth in Russian securitization.
Many banks and non-banking organizations (including ATTA Mortgage) plan to begin or continue their securitization programs in 2008 (taking into account global economic circumstances now).
The increasing popularity of warehousing and the timing of refinancing of these warehouses through term securitizations, as well as spread trends on newly issued bonds will determine the volume of issued bonds for 2008.
It is expected continued diversity in the types of asset classes that are included in securitization, as for example interest in CMBS and credit card transactions picks up.
Securitization in Russia in 2008
ATTA 12
The position of ATTA Mortgage on the refinancing market*
АТТА Mortgage
KIT Finance
Eurotrust
GPB-Mortgage
Uniastrum Bank
Bank Vozrozhdenie
RaiffeisenbankVTB24Absolut
Bank0
100
200
300
400
15 25 35 45 55 65 75
In the market, months
Source: http//www.rusipoteka.ru/
Volume, $млн.
* Excluding АHML: In the market since 09.1997, refinanced $1685,9 млн.
ATTA Mortgage
ATTA Mortgage was established by Turan Alem Bank finance group as a limited liability company in May, 2005.
ATTA Mortgage began to buy mortgage loans in October 2005.
According to the Charter the main aim of the company is the activity in refinancing of mortgage loans in Russia and abroad.
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-Regions of Russia, where ATTA Mortgage has partners: 99 partners in 81 republics and regions of the RF
Investors
Re-financing company
Providers ofmortgages
Mortgagees
Mortgage borrowers
Pension fund
Mutualfunds
Investors to mortgage bonds (MBS)
ATTA Mortgage
Mortgage dealers
Banks
Mortgage brokers
Co-operatives Others
Collectors agencies
Depositories
Servicerscompanies
Insurance companies
The scheme of the The scheme of the cooperation of mortgage market participants with ATTA Mortgage of mortgage market participants with ATTA Mortgage
Territorial CoverageATTA Mortgage
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ATTA Mortgage strategy Fast entry to primary and secondary mortgage markets. Long-term cooperation with all kinds of participants of mortgage
market. Training of the participants of mortgage market in technologies of
giving, re-financing and serving mortgage loans on the basis of ATTA Mortgage own educational centre.
Establishing of universal IT-system, connecting all the participants.
Organization of all-Russia mortgage program, including banks, mortgage agents, insurance and appraiser companies etc.
Entry to international capital markets. Maintenance of Company share of mortgage market – 10%. Securitization of mortgage assets, issuance first MBS for Russian
and foreign investors in 2008. Obtaining the rating.
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ATTA Mortgage
Russian Federation, 125190, Moscow, Usievicha str, 20, bldg.1
tel. + 7 (495) 783-28-45 fax + 7 (495) 911-96-42, 783-28-43 ext. 2227 e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] www.attaipoteka.ru