+

Interim progress reportTeam Cupcake (Group 3)

+Our Asks

Final product?Conceptual model (process map)

Key takeaways

What have we missed, what could be cut?

+Objective

Put forth an interregional assessment of the

preparedness and resilience of Mediterranean nations across intergovernmental and inter-

political relationships during a period of extreme drought

+History of climate change and interstate conflict

Bellagio Conference on Climate Change, Food Production, and Interstate Conflict 1975

Wat

er a

nd C

onfli

ct:

Fres

h W

ater

Res

ourc

es a

nd

Inte

rnat

iona

l Sec

urity

1993

The

Arc

tic

Clim

ate

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nge

and

Secu

rity

Polic

y C

onfe

renc

e

2008

UN Millennium Summit Climate change and its possible security implications 2009

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

and

Secu

rity

in A

fric

a

Cha

lleng

es a

nd

inte

rnat

iona

l pol

icy

cont

ext

200

9Bey

ond

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city

:

Ret

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+Vulnerability & Readiness

We’re interested in how this varies across the Mediterranean

● EU, Non EU, Asia and Africa

There are already assessments of the vulnerability and readiness at national scales

● e.g. NDGain Index

There are two particular factors we’re focusing on:● “Adaptive capacity of the communities is often

depleted when they are in conflict zones” (UNEP, 2009)

● Membership of political unions (e.g. EU)

ND-GAIN Index of Vulnerability and Readiness

+Governance

United NationsComprehensive, guidance

on climate change, resource management, and displaced peoples

Middle EastLeague of Arab States (?)

Non – EU Europe

Individual States

European Union

Comprehensive, guidance on climate change,

resource management, and displaced peoples

African UnionResearch, advocacy and

capacity-building for climate change resilience

Mediterranean Union

“peace, stability and prosperity”

IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

+

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

% G

DP

Eu

rop

e

Mid

dle

Ea

st

Afr

ica

RICE 2010

Global temperature increaseBest estimate 2.0 CLikely range 1.4 C - 2.6 C

Economic losses for RCP 8.5 warming

Need for finer scale/sector estimates

How these estimates would change if a “super drought” is superimposed?

Include the possibility of “poverty traps” and downward development spirals

Social and governance consequences

Economic Impact: No Drought

+Drought and aridity

+The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) shows the actual

precipitation compared to the probability of precipitation for various time frames. The SPI is an index based on precipitation only. It can be used on a variety of time scales, which allows it to be useful for both short-term agricultural and long-term hydrological applications.

A drought event occurs any time the SPI is continuously negative and reaches an intensity of -1.0 or less. The event ends when the SPI becomes positive.

Each drought event, therefore, has a duration defined by its beginning and end, and an intensity for each month that the event continues. The positive sum of the SPI for all the months within a drought event can be termed the drought’s “magnitude”.

The National Drought Mitigation Centerhttp://drought.unl.edu/

+ Southern Europe North Africa

Middle East

European Drought Observatoryhttp://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Climate Change and Migration: Mediterranean Basin

Climate change: Exacerbate existing migration flowsDifferent hazards, different effects: Gradual vs. extreme changes

Important questions:

1) What are the existing migration connections in the Mediterranean Basin?

2) What combination of circumstancescurrently lead people to move there?

3) How might a severe droughtexacerbate these conditions?

4) Potential for novel migration flows?

Abel and Sander, 2014

+Potential Economic Impacts: Drought

Two major factors in the regional economy: tourism and agriculture

Influence of these sectors on GDP is not evenly spread out

Agriculture influence is the highest in: Albania (19.5%) Syria (17.6%) Morocco (15.1%) Egypt (14.5%)

Tourism influence is highest in: Croatia (12.1%) Montenegro (9.8%) Morocco (8.6%) Tunisia (7.3%)

+Potential Economic Impacts: Drought (cont’d)

Agriculture might represent bigger impacts as a larger portion of the economy in more vulnerable countries

Impacts on agriculture are also easier to immediately discern than those on tourism

There are human dimension uncertainties surrounding both Agriculture impact depends on land management Tourism impact depends on how those outside the region

respond – there is more of a lag in response Drought can lead farmers to transition to tourism which

may actually help conserve remaining water resources

+Maslow’s hierarchy – lowered capacity

Desertification – removes safety and physiological due to un-inhabitability, un-profitability

Migration/displaced persons – removes belonging, safety,

physiological due to life disruption/involuntary moves

Scarcity/Economic Reduction – removes self-actualization, self-

esteem, belonging, safety, physiological due to limited

resources

+Maslow’s hierarchy – point of intervention

Current view is that climate change can be solved only after immediate needs (jobs, food, education, etc) have been

solved

Climate change causes problems in areas of belonging, safety, and

physiological and should be solved for in conjunction with other needs

+Our Asks

Final product?Conceptual model (process map)

Key takeaways

What have we missed, what could be cut?